Belarus U21 - Italy U21

Calculation is simple. Belarus need a win against Italy and to hope there is a winner in the Sweden - Serbia fixture. Otherwise, Belarus should win with at least three goals difference. But, considering past two games, such epilogue isn’t very probable. Belarus came to Championship after they eliminated Turkey and made some good performances in friendlies, later (Germany away, 1-1). So, audience expected more. They started a game against Sweden very well, but defence line made some terrible mistakes and game ended with five goals on their balance. Against Serbia, it was a new team. With fighting attitude they kept the net and got one point that gives them a chance for semi-finals. It doesn’t sound real, but players were saying it was just because their coach was on the bench (wasn’t against Sweden). They have nothing to loose, have a chance to progress and I’m sure they’ll attack Italians (or try to attack, at least). And will have a coach on the bench.

Before the Championship started, Italy was declared as one of the main candidates for trophy. They didn’t prove such predictions only in the second half against Serbia. Azzurri had a drop in the performance, Serbs made two very good goal opportunities, but goalless draw at the end. In the second game, they were inferior about 23 minutes at the start. Then Mario Balotelli scored for a lead. Little later, the same player make big stupidity in his own manner and got a red card (will be substituted by Ignacio Abate). Italy won the game and now need a one point to qualify for semi-finals. But, must win for the first place. So, a win will lead them on Germany, a point on England and a defeat would mean a ticket to home. Maybe, it is nothing, but from the last 17 games Italy has just one defeat, against Germany. Motive for avoiding, or revenge? However, Casiraghi announced the best eleven will play (excluding mentioned Balotelli), they’re much better team and have no reason to play with the fate.

Italians are masters of calculations, but the example of their older mates (Confederations Cup) can only teach them what happened in case of exaggeration. Italy is much better, I don’t doubt in their serious approach and they should win this easily. But, the odds are miserable and Belarus must attack. So, I choose goals instead. Betfair offers 2.12, Pinnacle 2.02. Over.
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