Dule's Betting

League One betting, Yeovil - Preston

2012-01-28T13:35:00.001+01:00

Since Gary Johnson took the charge (again), Yeovil have noticed a win (against free fall Tranmere) and two defeats (conceded eight in those). Midfielder Dominic Blizzard is a doubt.

Preston are still without strikers Hume and Mellor, which is a big blow of course, but it seems they’ve adjusted to play without them. Four games on the road without a defeat (two wins, two draws) and conceded only one goal (scored only three though).

Expect another Preston’s win by one goal and frankly fancy those odds. Some limitation on a draw, though.

Bet: Preston -0.25
Odd: 2.22 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 7/10
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Blue Square betting, 24th Jan

2012-01-24T17:43:00.000+01:00

Bath City - Alfreton Town

Six-pointer! Bath are at the bottom, five points below the line (with a game in hand), but there’s some certain improvement in their game. At home, they’re undefeated in last seven competitive games and have won three out of last four. They got trashed at Grimsby for the weekend (which is not a shame at the moment), but I think they were with their minds on this game.

Alfreton have noticed 10 defeats out of 14 away games (stayed undefeated in last two, though). So as Bath, they also had an unpleasant weekend losing at home against Kidderminster 0-2. They will miss a Stoke’s loaned striker, Moult and first choice goalie.

Apparently I missed the better price earlier today, but am still fine with the odd.

Bet: Bath City -0.25
Odd: 1.99 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 6/10

Forest Green Rovers - Wrexham

Rovers are winless in last seven games (five in league) and in those have scored just once. They look safe from relegation and without a hope for play-off. They've played 11 games against teams above them in the table and have only one win (at Southport).

Wrexham are topping the table and are in a great run of results with seven consecutive wins.

Betting on a winning horse, away win.

Bet: Wrexham -0.5
Odd: 2.04 (Canbet)
Stake: 6/10
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League One Betting, Oldham - Exeter

2012-01-21T13:52:00.002+01:00

Oldham don’t look that bad as the table shows. They put some decent displays recently, were probably the better side at Hudders but lost with a goal at the late stage. The problem will be fatigue from midweek Cup defeat at Chesterfield.

Exeter are pretty bad on the road, they’re second worst in league and have lost three of last four away (only positive result was win over bottom side - Chesterfield). Interesting is their two director flew to Brazil in attempt to arrange friendly.

I am going to back home side, here.

Bet: Oldham -0.5
Odd: 2.01 (188bet)
Stake: 6/10

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Championship betting, Leeds - Ipswich

2012-01-21T13:10:00.000+01:00

Leeds seem to be losing the pace (one win out of last six in league) and with problematic Howson’s sell that should follow, play-off place looks far at the moment (although it’s only 3 points distance). However, their home games have produced an average of 2.75 goals and Leeds have scored in every of their 15 games against bottom half sides.

Ipswich are in a poor form as well, winless in five in league, but actually like to play against Leeds since they haven’t been defeated in nine (both home and away) and won’t lack any confidence. Problem is they have the worst defence in second tier (51 goals - 26 games) and away it looks even worse as their trips have produced an average of unreal 3.54 goals per a game. They’ve also conceded in 13 of last 14 in a league.

It is so strong statistics and considering unrest among Leeds fans that could put an additional pressure, it could be one of those crazy games. Over for me.

Maybe one more, later...

Bet: Over 2.75
Odd: 2.01 (Canbet)
Stake: 7/10
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Championship betting, Bristol City - Doncaster

2012-01-21T12:21:00.000+01:00

After Derek McInnes took the charge Robins made a promising start with four wins out of five, but lost the breath soon after that. However, they’ve been showing some signs of improvement lately with two wins out of last three (against leaders S’ton (away) and Millwall at home). Skipper Liam Fontaine will miss again.

Donny are second from the bottom and their prospects don’t look good at all. They’ve noticed 11 defeats out of 13 on the road (five in a trot), conceding an average of 2.38 goals per a game.

City have some certain quality, if not for a play-off then for middle definitely. This is a six-pointer and I think their motivation isn’t questionable. If they stop Billy Sharp (six of last seven goals for Donny), City will take this one comfortably.

Bet: B.City -0.5
Odd: 1.93 (Canbet)
Stake: 7/10
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Premier League and Championship betting, 14 Jan

2012-01-14T13:30:00.001+01:00

Short with time today, no previews.

Man Utd - Bolton

Bet: Man Utd -2.25
Odd: 2.00 (StanJames)
Stake: 7/10

Ipswich - Blackpool

Bet: Over 2.75
Odd: 1.89 (188bet)
Stake: 7/10
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Blue Square North Betting, 7th Jan

2012-01-07T13:33:00.000+01:00

Altrincham - Colwyn Bay

Altrincham look pretty well at home with seven wins out of eleven (one defeat), scored second amount of goals and have also second defence.

Colwyn have noticed three league defeats in a row and all three without scoring.

Bet: Altrincham -1.0
Odd: 2.10 (bet365)
Stake: 6/10

Corby Town - Halifax Town

Despite only four points separate these two teams, they’re in the opposite trends. Corby have three home defeats in a row (goal diff. 1-8), Halifax five wins out of last six in league and straight four wins on the road.

Bet: Halifax -0.25
Odd: 2.00 (188bet)
Stake: 7/10
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Championship betting, Nott Forest - Cardiff

2011-12-31T13:16:00.000+01:00

Instead to be contenders for play-off, Forest are under a serious relegation threat (first under the line, at the moment). They have five defeats out of last six (one draw) and haven’t score a single goal in those. (Now when I’ve noticed, they’ll probably smash one in the opening 10 minutes!) At home, three defeats in a row and every of them looks a bit embarrassing. First trashing from Leeds 0-4, then 0-1 defeats vs. Palace and Posh.

Cardiff have only one defeat of last 13 competitive games, unlucky one at home vs. ‘Boro. They’ve noticed only two away defeats of season’s 12 and are undefeated in last six, but have played too many draws lately (7 of 12 away). Oppositely from the hosts, they are serious promotion contenders (as every year though).

My impression is such high odds on visitors are based more on Forest’s reputation then on recent results and potential. I am covering a draw, but expect Cardiff to nick one for 0-1.

Bet: Cardiff 0.0
Odd: 2.02 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 8/10
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League Two betting, Northampton - Burton

2011-12-26T13:33:00.001+01:00

The Cobblers have only one win out of ten at home (vs. bottom side - Dag&Red) and have lost eight of last ten (home and away).They have the worst defence in the league.

In the last two rounds, Burton lost away against leaders Crawley and missed to win against Dag&Red. But, before those two they had five wins out of six matches (both home and away), they’re still at fifth place and are a serious play-off contenders.

Northampton have new manager and goalie (his first signing) which force me to take some limitation, but they'll remain a very poor side.

Bet: Burton -0.25
Odd: 2.27 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 7/10
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Boxing Day Betting, Bolton - Newcastle

2011-12-26T12:05:00.002+01:00

The Trotters have lost nine of last ten matches at home, but in previous round they got a big confidence boost by winning Blackburn away and they’ve won seven of their last eight home matches at Boxing Day. However, they cannot shut the defence and they’ve conceded at least twice in eight out of last ten games.

The Toon are winless in last six and this should be a nice chance for them to back on the track. But, they also have a leaky defence and conceded 10 goals in last four encounters. Nine of their last twelve games have produced three goals or more goals (six games with four or more).

I am taking goals.

Bet: Over 2.75
Odd: 2.11 (Canbet)
Stake: 8/10
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Scotland betting, Hearts - Motherwell

2011-12-24T11:28:00.000+01:00

Odds don’t seem to be fair for me.

Hearts have two wins out of last eight and both came against sides from bottom three (five defeats in those eight).

Motherwell are in a terrific run with seven wins out of nine on the road (five in a row). Acceptable defeat against Celtic and draw vs. Kilmanrock.

Also, Hearts haven’t won against Motherwell in last four at home (won just once in last seven home and away).

Bet: Motherwell +0.25
Odd: 2.03 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 6/10
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Calcio betting, Atalanta - Cesena

2011-12-21T18:11:00.002+01:00

Sorry for late posting, will be brief.

Atalanta seem to be fine at home with no defeat so far (seven games). Their five draws in a row cause some concern, but without six points deduction they would have been as same position as Inter.

Cesena are generally poor travellers and beside five defeats out of seven, they’ve scored only two goals.

Bet: Atalanta -0.5
Odd: 1.88 (bet365)
Stake: 6/10
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League Two Betting, Shrewsbury - Macclesfield

2011-12-17T15:02:00.000+01:00

I am going to back Shrewsbury to respond on an awful display and defeat away to Aldershot. They have strong home record with seven wins and two draws out of nine at home, conceded only five in those. Macclesfield have noticed six defeats of nine on the road, their goalie saved them against Gillingham and they had a midweek Cup game.

Don’t like to back such short favorites in this league, but I am in opinion that odd on Shrewsbury should be even lower.

Bet: Shrewsbury -1
Odd: 2.06 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 7/10
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League One betting, Bury - Brentford

2011-12-17T13:51:00.000+01:00

Fancy the price for away side, since I’d expected something a bit closer to evens for their win. Both sides are in the decent shapes. Bury have three wins out of last four in league (bottom-half clubs and Preston, but in last round they suffered a heavy defeat at Colchester.

Brentford have won last two matches and their only defeat of last five in league came from the hands of Charlton. The Bees continue to play without skipper, midfielder Kevin O'Connor and it’s their only absentee. They have only one away defeat out of nine played games (Sheff Utd, back in August).

Expect Brentford to this one, but covering a draw should be reasonable.

Bet: Brentford 0.0
Odd: 2.03 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 7/10
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Championship betting, West Ham - Barnsley

2011-12-17T11:01:00.000+01:00

The Hammers have noticed two defeats in a row and will certainly want to bounce back immediately. I am not sure how it’s going to work since there’s a big injury crisis (Allardyce has made a list 25 (twenty five) players to look at in a bid!). Good thing for my bet is all strikers seem to be fit.

The Tykes’ last ten games produced a total amount of 41 goals, last four on the road - 20! Before last week defeat vs. Ipswich, they had a run of four consecutive wins.

I am going for goals.

Bet: Over 2.75
Odd: 2.07 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 8/10
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Blue Square North Betting, Boston United - Corby Town

2011-12-13T12:29:00.000+01:00

Boston have only one league win out of last five matches (played against some top sides though). They won at Saturday in Cup which could bring some confidence, but tired legs as well and I doubt they have that big squad for a decent rotation (Corby were free for the weekend). United will be without skipper, defender Gareth Jelleyman.

Corby are also in some downtrend with two defeats and a draw out of last three (all against top nine), but they’ve suffered just a single away defeat out of nine (four wins and draws).

BlueSq as a league sponsor has the lowest odd for United so no reason to go crazy with the stake, but still see a decent value.

Bet: Corby 0.0
Odd: 2.08 (bet365)
Stake: 6/10
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Holland betting, Vitesse - Groningen

2011-12-11T13:47:00.001+01:00

Vitesse have won four out of six home games, while two draws and a defeat came against top-six league sides. Only home defeat suffered against Feyenord two weeks ago, but backed on the track with 0-0 draw at Twente and 4-0 home win against RKC Waalwijk.

Groningen’s away record looks opposite, haven’t lost three times in a total of seven games and positive results came only against bottom six (which Vitesse are not). The rest they lost, conceding an average of 3.25 goals per a game.

Think the price is very generous and go for a home win.

Bet: Vitesse
Odd: 2.27 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 5/10
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League Two betting, Northampton - Crewe

2011-12-10T14:07:00.001+01:00

Northampton won only one game out of home nine. They’ve lost seven of last eight in league and conceded 15 goals in last three matches!

Crewe look a bit better with five wins (and five defeats) of ten games on the road. They also won last two (Hereford and Morecamb).

Think there’s a decent value on away side. Crewe have only one draw of 18 league games (none on the road), there’s not too much point on covering a draw and I am taking straight away win.

Bet: Crewe
Odd: 3.00 (bet365)
Stake: 4/10
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Premier League Betting, Norwich - Newcastle

2011-12-10T12:52:00.001+01:00

Norwich haven’t kept a single clean sheet of 14 games, they have conceded more goals than any other team outside the bottom three and only Bolton have allowed their opponents more shots on goal. Their seven home games have produced 22 goals (average 3.14)!

The Toon are also free scoring (and free conceding) side. Seven of their last nine matches in Premier produced three or more goals and they’ve conceded seven goals in last three. For this particular game, Alan Pardew will have plenty of problems with his defence line. Steven Taylor and Mike Williamson are out and Fabricio Coloccini is a serious doubt.

While I fancy Norwich for this one, the fact is both sides have leaky defences and pretty strong attacks. Goals should be only logic conclusion.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.90 (Interwetten)
Stake: 8/10
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League One Betting, 10 December

2011-12-10T11:49:00.000+01:00

Walsall - Charlton

Walsall are fourth from the bottom , have two home wins out of ten and one win out of last 14 in league. Last week played only a draw against poor Dag&Red. They’ll miss Ryan Jarvis, striker who starts his three-match suspension.

Charlton look superior in the third tier. They’re alone on the top (7 points margin), eight wins in a row (six in league, two in Cup) and are scoring for fun (while defence looks rock solid). The fact they play on the road doesn’t mean too much as they’ve noticed eight wins out of ten.

Against Hudders Charlton showed a great domination and quality. Walsall were clueless in last few games and I doubt they can make some serious threats. Expect nice and smooth 0-2.

Bet: Charlton -0.75
Odd: 2.04 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 8/10
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Tranmere - MK Dons

After an impressive start, Tranmere have been slipping on the table and going where, in my opinion, they actually belong - to the bottom half of the table. Five defeats out of last six games and conceded 14 goals in those. The biggest concern is striker, target man Enoch Showunmi. He wasn’t fit at Thursday and seems in best case he’ll be on the bench.

The Dons are doing well, they’re fourth on the table, have six wins in a row (four in league, two in Cup) and scored 23 in those!

I am backing the winning horse here and odds look very appealing.

Bet: MK Dons -0.25
Odd: 2.06 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 7/10
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Blue Square Bet Premier, Darlington - Forest Green

2011-12-03T12:59:00.001+01:00

d
Darlo are decent side, had three wins in a row than lost in Wrexham (which is not the shame). On the other hand they have some injury worries with the lack of options in attack (best striker is out injured, other is suspended). Also, few youngsters are expected to appear.
Visitors have only one defeat out of eleven on the road, they’ve noticed three wins out of last four (one draw) and in last two away games smashed Braintree and Southport - scoring eight in those two.

It’s a pity I missed the better price yesterday, but it still represents a good value.

Bet: Forest Green 0.0
Odd: 2.11 (Betsson)
Stake: 7/10
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Premier League and Championship betting, 03.12

2011-12-03T11:39:00.003+01:00

a
Aston Villa - Man Utd

Villa have very good home record (3W, 2D, 1L), but they actually haven’t faced any of the top sides so far. Their wins came against bottom two Blackburn - Wigan and Norwich, drew vs. Wolves and the Toon and lost against West Brom. They’ve noticed only one point of last five matches and have terrible record against Utd, as they won only once of their last 31 league meetings (21W, 9D, 1L).

Man Utd had a poor week, but think I can find few excuses. Against Valencia, back four was mixed which resulted with two goals in the back of the net. Toon were saving their heads and somehow took a point, while elimination from Cup with youngsters was only a slap that needs a reaction and could only be helpful for this bet. Villa Park is happy place to go for Ferguson, as they won more points in Premier only at Goodison.

Expect much improved performance from United and easier win than expected.

Bet: Man Utd -0.75
Odd: 1.93 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 8/10
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Bristol City - Middlesbrough

The Robins are at poor 20th position, but since Derek McInnes took the charge they have been playing like born again. Undefeated in six in league (4W, 2D) with few really impressive displays. They resisted at West Ham, won at the Den against Millwall and defeated league leaders S’ton in a game where the Saints were on back foot for entire game. They regained self confidence and with the potential they obviously posses, I expect more good games and climbing on the table.

‘Boro made a good start of the season, but their form recently has been going in the opposite direction than the Robins’. They’re winless in last three matches and in last five on the road, defeated only poor old Donny.

I expect City to win this one and to continue a great run, but simply (regardless how much I’ve been trying) cannot exclude a possibility of a draw.

Bet: B.City 0.0
Odd: 1.98 (Ladbrokes)
Stake: 7/10
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Puntersmate.net - The Best Betting Forum Around

2011-11-30T12:17:00.004+01:00

As someone who likes to hear different opinions and to see other betting tips, I always look around for betting forums as places that gather more betting enthusiast. With no exaggeration, this is the best place I’ve found! No big as Punters Lounge or Betting Advice, but small group of top bettors. Quite frankly, was surprised it wasn’t a closed forum or paid service. PuntersMate is the fastest growing sports betting forum on the Internet!

Besides football, there’s regular covering of horse racing, rugby, snooker, tennis, darts and all American sports betting. Two regular monthly competitions with cash prizes (football and horse racing) and Punters Academy, special forum section dedicated to the rookies and those whose betting career is stalled (free betting advice and info, including staking plans, betting A-Zs and beginners’ guides for spread betting, the exchanges and Asian Handicap football bets).

Others say:

“The quality of tipping on puntersmate is to be applauded”

“Welcome to the oasis amongst the desert of Punting Forums”

“Some of the best punters on the web”

After all, it’s free!

So, why don’t you make a quick look and decide if you like to join some of the best bettors on the net.

PuntersMate

Wish you good betting luck and thanks for visiting my corner,

Dule

Blue Square Bet Premier, Barrow - Alfreton Town

2011-11-29T12:02:00.001+01:00

Barrow have pretty strong home record with six wins (two draws and two defeats) out of ten home games. At home turf, they’ve already beaten top two sides, Fleetwood Town (4-0) and Wrexham (3-1). It is only Wrexham’s defeat out of their 11 on the road. Barrow are winless in last three in league, but there was some improvement in previous game at Telford where the Bluebirds played pretty well, but thankfully to home goalie (named as man of the match) stayed empty handed.

Alfreton have the second worst record on the road, as they took only four points from their ten trips (eight defeats, draw and one win). This is long journey for them and as I understood they’ll be without three players in defence line and a winger.

I think there’s some decent value on home side and since four of their six home wins came with two or more goals margin, I go even further and am taking -0.75.

Bet: Barrow -0.75
Odd: 2.05 (188bet)
Stake: 7/10
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League One Betting, Rochdale - Brentford

2011-11-26T13:48:00.001+01:00

Rochdale defeated Preston in previous round which however was their first win after six in league and two in Cup. At home they’ve won only two games out of nine, against bottom-half sides Wycombe and Scunny.

Brentford oppositely lost in previous round, against side from the top - Charlton at home. But, they seem to enjoy their travelling as they haven’t lost in ten on the road (eight in league and two in Cup). In last two trips, stayed undefeated against promotion contenders Sheff Wed and Notts County, while also defeated Charlton in Cup 3-0.

Brentford definitely shouldn’t be as high as 2.69, but considering decent amount of draws on both sides 0.0 handicap should be a reasonable limitation.

Bet: Brentford
Odd: 1.93 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 7/10
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Blue Square Bet Premier, Bath City - Mansfield Town

2011-11-26T12:34:00.001+01:00

Think it’s more than generous price here. City are stuck to the bottom with a single win out of 20 matches (have lost seven out of 10 at home). They played at Wednesday a Cup replay against Dag&Red and lost after extra time. Game had a great importance for them, they played with the best team and I doubt they have that big squad to rotate players for game today. Also, they’ve been storming on assistant referee in that game who made a crucial mistake and (allegedly) eliminated City from the Cup. So, team morale couldn’t be sky high (even read somewhere that home fans will trade the tickets with the visitors).

Mansfield, although playing below their pre-season expectations, haven’t been noticing so bad results lately. On the road, they’re undefeated in eight outings (4 wins, 4 draws). No big missings and both clubs have signed some players on loan (Bath two, Mansfield three).

In my numbers, Mansfield shouldn’t be above evens and as I mentioned price is worth of a shout. Away win.

Bet: Mansfield
Odd: 2.29 (Canbet)
Stake: 6/10
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Premier League Betting, Man Utd - Newcastle

2011-11-26T11:32:00.001+01:00

No need to talk too much about Man Utd’s home record. This season they have five wins out of six, in previous one 18 wins and only one draw. For the notice is fact the most of their home wins came after the lead at the ht (lost the exact number, but let’s say 70%). After conceding six in city derby, in next five matches they didn’t concede a single goal. Till Benfica, but with mixed defence. Only Anderson is out (till February). United haven’t lost against the Toon in last 18 matches (both home and away), winning 14 of them!

Newcastle are noticing a surprising (shocking if you like) start of the campaign. Their first defeat came in last round against Man City (where they maybe deserved more than 1-3 defeat) and currently occupy CL spot! However, all their rivals on the road were bottom-half sides.

I don’t really expect Newcastle will stay at the top too long and fancy United to win this one with the lead at the half time. Odds are decent.

Bet: Man Utd/Man Utd (ht/ft)
Odd: 2.00 (PaddyPower, Bwin)
Stake: 8/10
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Premier League betting, WBA - Tottenham

2011-11-26T10:48:00.001+01:00

West Brom haven’t been bad lately, four wins, four draws and two defeats out of last ten. But on the other hand, they scored only nine goals in those ten and lost every match against top sides (Man Utd, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool). Situation about Long and Odemwingie still isn’t clear, while second mentioned also started some public arguing with Hodgson.

Spurs are flying high at the moment, they’ve noticed nine wins and a draw out of last ten and have scored two or more goals in each of last nine matches (averaging 17 shots per game this season)! Rafael van der Vaart is doubt for Redknapp who said the Dutch is out of contention (which forces me to believe he’ll start).

Anyway, I consider the worst scenario for my bet where WBA’s duo will play and Van der Vaart will not, but still find evens (or nearly below it) for away win as very appealing.

Bet: Tottenham
Odd: 2.00 (Interwetten)
Stake: 7/10
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League Two betting, Port Vale - Torquay

2011-11-25T15:52:00.002+01:00

Port Vale have three straight league defeats and adding two Cup games on that, they scored just once in last five matches. Also they won’t have fresh legs, as they played (and lost) mid week Cup game away at Grimsby.

Torquay are in a great run with four straight league wins (five, including Cup). Opponents in those weren’t sides from the top, but my impression is they’re simply too high and worth a punt.

Bet: Torquay 0.0
Odd: 2.18 (Canbet)
Stake: 7/10
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Championship betting, Birmingham - Peterborough

2011-11-19T14:39:00.000+01:00

Brum lost at Reading and ended their run of nine unbeaten games. However, they should be strong promotion contenders (have three games in hand). At home are undefeated (4W, 2D) and have conceded only once. Big thing for them is no Europa League game on the sight and could be focused only on this tier.

The Posh have been scoring and conceding for fun, lately. Their defence is the weakest in Championship (29 conceded goals in 16 games), and they’re the only club in the division without a clean sheet. Some important players are returning to the squad, but I think Posh won’t be able to cope with Brum’s rock solid defence and to score as much as they concede.

Expect one nice and smooth home win.

Bet: Birmingham -0.75
Odd: 2.02 (Bet365)
Stake: 7/10
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League One betting, Brentford - Charlton

2011-11-19T12:45:00.000+01:00

Brentford thrashed Bournemouth in Cup (defeated Basingstoke Town after that too), but in league have only one win of last seven at home. They have won more points playing on the road. Today, they’ll be without captain Kevin O'Connor.

Charlton are topping the table and have been scoring for fun. They’re in the run of four straight wins and have scored 20 goals in those! Seven away wins out of nine games make them obvious favorites here.

Think it won’t be easy as numbers suggest (my numbers as well). I can see a low scoring affair (with 0-0 ht) with Charlton to nick it in 2nd half. I am taking handicap and some draw covering.

Bet: Charlton -0.25
Odd: 1.94 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 8/10
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Premier League Betting, Norwich - Arsenal

2011-11-19T11:48:00.000+01:00

Sort of obvious pick. Norwich have conceded in each of their home games (no clean sheet in any of 12 games this season), they play attacking football and three of their last four games produced four or more goals. Remind me on Blackpool last year.

Arsenal’s last seven matches in league were overs, while their five on the road produced 28 goals! Differently from the start of the season, they look pretty well and should be big favorites today. Additionally, Wenger made a deal with Dutch coach Van Persie to be rested against Germany and he’s fully fit. Arsenal have scored 13 goals in their last three meetings with Norwich.

Goals for me.

Bet: Over 3
Odd: 2.21 (188bet)
Stake: 8/10
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Spain Segunda betting, 13 November

2011-11-13T13:51:00.000+01:00

Villarreal B - Almeria

Villarreal B took 11 points of twelve opening games and have same points as first below the line - Girona. They’re in the run of four straight defeats (all four vs. top-seven sides) and have noticed only one win at home out of six. Interesting thing is they score and concede a lot when playing at home, 13-15 which are the biggest numbers in both columns.

Almeria look like strong promotion contender, currently second (two teams will directly qualify to Primera), three wins in a row and have four wins on the road (with one draw and one defeat). Oppositely from the hosts, their away games are low scoring affairs. Just one went in over and they’ve conceded a total of just three goals. Today’s game should be won by their defence.

Two teams in opposite trends with opposite ambitions. At this price, definitely worth of a shot.

Bet: Almeria
Odd: 2.38 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 4/10
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Blue Square North betting, 12 Nov

2011-11-12T13:03:00.001+01:00

Boston United - Hyde United

Blue Square North looks like two horses race, between Hyde and Stalybridge. Hyde had some drop in form with four games without a win, but overcame it with three wins in a row without conceding (scored eight in those). They’re fine on the road with six wins out of nine (a draw and two defeats).

I rate Boston as average league side. They’re in a decent run at home taking ten points of last four games, but so far in the season they haven’t hosted any of the top-six sides.

2.30 looks like a generous price for away win.

Bet: Hyde
Odd: 2.30 (Betsson)
Stake: 4/10
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Nuneaton Town - Workington

Nuneaton are pushing for the promotion spot, they won five home games out of last seven and three of those five ended with two or more goals margin. They’ve conceded only 14 goals in the opening 15 games which is second best in the league.

Workington have noticed six defeats of eight away games (scored a total of four goals!) and four of those six were with more than one goal margin. They also have lost four of last five matches against Town (both home and away).

Bet: Nuneaton -1ah
Odd: 2.05 (188bet)
Stake: 4/10
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Switzerland betting, 6 Oct

2011-11-06T13:46:00.001+01:00

Grasshopper- Sion

Little trip to Switzerland.

Grasshopper have four defeats of six home games and all came in last four matches (scored only once in those). They also conceded eight in last two league games (scored two).

Sion are in the opposite trend as they’ve noticed five wins out of last seven in the league. Two defeats came against top side Basel (0-1 at home) and 2nd placed Luzern (0-2 away). The rest five, they won without conceding. Sion also won six of last seven matches against Grasshopper (both, home and away).

Enough to make this odd very appealing.

Bet: Sion
Odd: 2.30 (Expekt)
Stake: 4/10
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League One and Two, 5 Nov

2011-11-05T12:50:00.000+01:00

Charlton - Preston

Charlton are topping the table, they have three wins in a row (last two on the road) with goal difference in those 10-1. No injury or suspension worries.

Preston are in a shocking run with five defeats out of last six and conceded 16 in those! They have had plenty of problems with defending entire season, but downtrend started when they lost Neil Mellor and Iain Hume and stopped scoring. For this game they’ll also be without another forward Jamie Proctor and goalie Iain Turner.

At the first sight I didn’t see any value here, but with including Preston’s injured players I got 1.61 for Charlton. At asian market it’s even better (as usual).

Bet: Charlton -0.75
Odd: 1.80 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 8/10
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Plymouth - Morecambe

Situation at Plymouth looks better recently, since they’re out of administration and Carl Fletcher has become a permanent manager. However, they’re stuck to the bottom with 12 defeats out of 14 matches and have been playing with plenty of youngsters (fielded seven U 21 players against Cheltenham last week). Besides that, their two defenders (Griffiths and Berry) are out, while teenage striker Matt Lecointe and goalie Jake Cole are in serious doubt to be fit.

Morecambe are third and undefeated on the road with five wins and three draws out of eight. They also have some injury worries with skipper Will Haining, forward Jason Price and defender Laurence Wilson all facing a late fitness test.

I think the market is overreacting on recent improvements at Plymouth and see this price as very generous.

Bet: Morecambe -0.5
Odd: 2.12 (188bet)
Stake: 6/10
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League One betting, Exeter - Carlisle

2011-11-05T11:50:00.000+01:00

The Grecians are in the big uptrend, since they’ve collected seven of possible nine points in last three rounds. And while their wins over Rochdale and Walsall were no surprise, then a point and four scored goals at Bramall Lane surely were shocking (for me, at least). They have kept only one clean sheet of last 14 competitive matches, last four went in over and three of those four were with four goals or more. After mentioned run, their confidence is certainly sky high.

Carlisle are also free scoring/conceding side, only two times haven’t conceded (Bury and Yeovil) and their last five matches produced three or more goals (four of those were over 3.5). And they’re also in a good shape with one defeat out of last seven (away to Charlton, 0-4).

Both sides should be confident ahead the game. They score and concede a lot and I think it won’t be kind of a game where opposition could cancel each other. Goals for me.

Bet: Over 2.75
Odd: 1.94 (Canbet)
Stake: 8/10
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Premier League betting, Blackburn - Chelsea

2011-11-05T10:57:00.000+01:00

Blackburn are third from the bottom and I can imagine them in Championship next year, but they have a goal threat in every game. They still haven’t kept a clean sheet, but failed to score only two times at home (Everton - missed two penalties and Man City). They have played eight competitive games at home (six league - two Cup), and seven of those went in over (five with four goals or more).

Chelsea have plenty of problems in the defence line. There could be few reasons like adjusting to still new manager, too attacking set up and Cech far from being impressive. They have kept only one clean sheet of opening ten games, in the first round at Stoke. Main problem at Ewood Park should be defending set-pieces and keeping eye on Samba.

Cech looks very bad, lately. I found that he has the worst saves-to-shots percentage (46%) in the league. And when goalie is insecure, whole defence becomes shaky. My point is, Chelsea will need at least two goals for a win which could make a high scoring affair.

Bet: Over 3
Odd: 2.01 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 9/10
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Championship betting 1 Nov

2011-11-01T13:46:00.000+01:00

Crystal Palace - Portsmouth

Palace are flying really high (they remind me on Newcastle in Premier) and are at shocking 3^rd place. They’re also undefeated in six league matches (four wins, two draws) and haven’t conceded in last four.

Pompey have a miserable record on the road with just two points of seven away games (including previous season, eleven games without a win) and have noticed five defeats in a row. They got smashed vs. Derby at Saturday, conceding three goals for a half of hour and despite Sean O'Driscoll is already seen as a new manager, I don’t expect any positive impact on the squad (yet).

It’s a very good price on Palace (everything above evens is a very good price, in my opinion), but some covering of a draw should be reasonable.

Bet: Crystal Palace -0.25
Odd: 2.00 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 7/10

Watford - Brighton

The Hornets defeated Peterborough at Sunday and ended a run of four straight defeats (all four against top-half sides though). However it was fifth win in 18 competitive games at home and they have the 2^nd worst defence in Championship.

Brighton are in a bad run of results, but watching more closely I had an impression they haven’t been “that” bad. Three draws and one defeat of last four in league. Goalless draw at home vs. Hull (Hull with their strong away record), then point at the Den against Millwall. A minimal home defeat against West Ham in a game that could have gone in both directions and finally a hard fought point away at Brum. They’ve been defending very well and been dangerous in front. I think it will be working nice at Vicarage Road and find this price very generous.

Bet: Brighton 0.0
Odd: 2.11 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 8/10
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Value betting, France 31 Oct

2011-10-31T12:25:00.000+01:00

Nantes - Racing Lens

Another interesting game, here. Nantes are generally very good hosts with three wins out of last four at home. Last week they suffered an away defeat at Boulogne and it was their first in last seven league matches. Visitors are still adjusting on the life in the second tier, currently are third from the bottom and without a win in last five in league (haven’t scored in four of those five). Last week Cup defeat vs. Olympique Marseille could have only brought more depression to the club. Nantes also have won three of last four vs. Lens at home (without conceding in any of those four). I go for a home win.

Bet: Nantes
Odd: 2.29 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 2/10
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Value betting, Poland 31 Oct

2011-10-31T11:47:00.001+01:00

Ruch Chorzow - Polonia Warszawa

Massive value, here! Ruch have noticed four home wins of six matches and three of last four (one defeat, against top side Polonia). On the other hand, Polonia took only a point from their four on the road. They’re without a win in last four in league and in previous round took only a point from visiting the bottom side Cracovia (Cracovia’s first point of six home games).

Now I know Polonia is bigger name of Polish football and maybe it’s expected they’ll improve and start climbing on the table (that's what I don’t know), but considering numbers it’s a big value on home win.

Bet: Ruch
Odd: 2.42 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 2/10

Probably one more to follow...
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Premier League betting, Norwich City - Blackburn Rovers

2011-10-29T13:42:00.001+02:00

Norwich have been playing very well, recently. They’ve lost just once in last five (Old Trafford 0-2) and at home have just one defeat of last 16 encounters (including Championship). However, they haven’t kept a clean sheet in their all 10 league and cup matches this season and have conceded in 13 of the last 14 home games.

Blackburn are stuck to the bottom, only one win of nine in a league (Arsenal 4-3!). Some moral boost is League Cup win over Newcastle in midweek, but on the other hand they played 120 mins with full strength (Norwich will have fresh legs). They also haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their 12 games this season (nine went in over) and did it just once in 23 on the road!

I am pretty sure Norwich won’t be just sitting back, trying to win in a tactical battle (if they didn’t at Anfield Road and Old Trafford, why they should at home against Blackburn?). On the other hand, Blackburn gained some confidence and probably have decent expectations from this game. I am going on over.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.95 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 7/10
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League One betting, Sheff Utd - Exeter

2011-10-29T12:39:00.000+02:00

The Blades are ending a tough schedule, in last five they played Charlton, Sheff Wed, Preston and MK Dons. They’re undefeated in four (two wins, two draws) and after a midweek win over the Dons, they’ve climbed on fourth place. I think they have more potential then they have been showing.

Exeter made their first away win in midweek (Walsall 2-1), but till then hadn’t even scored and noticed five defeats of seven (goal diff 2-11). Additionally, four of those five were with two or three goals margin (2-0 and 3-0).

Usually don’t like to be involved in something that could become a “public bet”, but United should be simply too much for the visitors.

Bet: Sheff Utd -1ah
Odd: 2.02 (Canbet)
Stake: 9/10
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Championship betting, Barnsley - Bristol City

2011-10-29T12:01:00.000+02:00

This seems to be a six-pointer. Barnsley are undefeated in four at home, two consecutive wins. That two and third league win came against fellow strugglers - bottom half sides (Millwall, Coventry, Burnley).

The Robins have been noticing the worst start in league since 1933. Only one league win of starting 13 games (and that one came vs. Leicester away!). They have five straight defeats (and seven of eight). Got new manager, but it didn’t help in previous round as they looked helpless against the Brum at home.

There’s some chance of a draw (and -0.25 should be better choice than clear win), but I think it’s very unlikely that City will win this one.

Bet: Barnsley -0.25
Odd: 1.88 (188bet)
Stake: 8/10
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Carling Cup and League One, 25 Oct

2011-10-25T12:49:00.002+02:00

Aldershot Town - Man Utd

After humiliation, this should be a punishment for the superstars. Vidic will lead the lads, some of other first-teamers won’t be rested as well. Giggs, Berbatov, Owen, Valencia, Park Ji-Sung, all of them could appear! Alex Ferguson stated that he’ll be looking for “an instant response” from his players. Usually I don’t care too much what he (all managers) used to talk before the game, but it seems he’s about to crack and an indolent attitude tonight could bring some radical measurement to any of the players, facing the axe or at least boot in the head. Ha ha However, I feel it won’t be so smooth and easy. This will be the biggest game in the history of, certainly fanatical hosts. Small pitch and mud (forecast is light rain) in combination with combative Shots, could make visitors’ lives miserable. I can see them scoring, once at least.

Bet: Over 3.5
Odd: 2.20 (Stan James)
Stake: 7/10

Carlisle - Sheff Wed

Carlisle at home played six games. Against rivals from the bottom side of the table (Bournemouth, Stevenage and Brentford), they won or played a draw. But against all teams from the upper half (Notts Co, MK Dons and Hartlepool), they lost all pretty easily. Also, this match comes after weekend trashing at Charlton.

The Owls look like strong contender for a direct promotion. Five wins of last six games (run started after a shock at Stevenage, 1-5) and they’re just a point behind 2nd placed Hudders. Two central defenders are suspended, one of each side (Matty Robson - Reda Johnson).

I expect away win, but from some reason (hate rainy games, really) cannot rule out a draw.

Bet: Sheff Wed 0.0
Odd: 1.98 (Ladbrokes)
Stake: 8/10
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Championship betting, Bristol City - Birmingham

2011-10-23T11:17:00.004+02:00

With only 6 points of 12 games, the Robins are noticing the worst start in 78 years. They’re rock bottom, only side in Championship without a home win (2 draws, 4 defeats) and shipping goals for fun (23 goals - the worst in league). However, syndrome of the new manager will be present since Derek McInnes (ex St. Johnstone) took the charge.

The Brummies have finally hit some good form, defeating Nott Forest away, Leicester at home and making two wins in Europa League. However, they played in Belgium at Thursday and are short with the time for recover (and it’s not like Hughton has that big squad to not be affected). The fact of my interest is every time when they played in Europe, next league game produced at least four goals. Birmingham have scored in each of their nine league games.

I’d dare to give some advantage to the Robins, but expect a goalfest and go for over instead.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.96 (Canbet)
Stake: 7/10
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Value betting, Brazil 22 Oct

2011-10-22T19:36:00.002+02:00

Since I am stuck to the bed suffering from some nasty cold, I’ve done some extra work. In fact, don’t know what else I could be doing...

Fluminense - Atletico Mineiro

Title against relegation contenders. Flu have five home wins in a row, nine of last ten matches. Mineiro, this season, have 10 away defeats of 15 games (seven of last nine). I see Mineiro pushing for a possible equalizer and conceding few more.

a
Bet: Fluminense -1
Odd: 2.35 (188bet)
Stake: 2/10
a
Sport Recife - Goias, Sp. Recife @ 1.79

Same situation about this one, promotion against relegation contenders. Recife were in a downtrend of five winless games, ended it in previous round defeating 2^nd from the bottom Salgueiro. Beside that, very good home record with 10 wins out of 15. Goias have noticed 11 defeats of 15 away games, three defeats in a row, six of last eight. Odd on Recife has been raising, I like it.

Bet: Sp. Recife
Odd: 1.79 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 2/10
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Championship betting, Hull City - Watford

2011-10-22T13:03:00.000+02:00

Second best defence in the league, against the side that hasn’t score in four of last five and have three straight defeats. Hull are in a great shape, undefeated in last seven league matches, three home wins in a row (Reading, Portsmouth and Cardiff). Things to worry is Hull also have scored only nine in eleven games this season (same as Watford) and only four in five at home. However, momentum is on home side and while they could easily finish in the play-off zone, Watford will be surely struggling to avoid relegation.

Home win, no handicap.

Bet: Hull
Odd: 1.81 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 7/10
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Premier League betting, Bolton - Sunderland

2011-10-22T12:23:00.000+02:00

It’s a real six pointer, here. Both sides have had a bad start of the season and this game, in case of a new failure, could cost a job both managers. I am pretty sure, neither of these sides would be satisfied with the point and am well surprised with the odds. Bolton’s every of eight league games this season went in over (six of them with four or more goals), while Sunderland’s last five produced three or more (conceded two in four of those five).

This should be really entertaining game. Neither of these sides is able to defend properly and both are desperate to win. Over for me.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 2.00 (Interwetten)
Stake: 7/10
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League One betting, Huddersfield - Preston

2011-10-22T11:49:00.000+02:00

Well, being lucky sometimes or not Hudders are now undefeated in 38 (if I counted well) league games. Despite the big amount of draws in those 38, they’re second and have scored at least twice in every of last six matches at Galpharm.

After a slow start, Preston made a run of seven straight wins in the league. Then made two, well at least for me, surprising defeats on the road vs. Leyton (unlucky) and Walsall (deserved). Few days ago, in the midweek game, they got trashed against another promotion candidate - Sheff Utd (2-4). Beside some fatigue (Hudders had a free midweek), North End will be without maybe two best players Neil Mellor (Phil Brown has refused to confirm it) and Ian Hume. Additionally, midfielders Coutts and Nicholson, and defender Brian McLean all picked up knocks against the Blades and will have late fitness test.

Personally, I avoid taking Hudders when they’re short priced, they’ve wasted too much points against bottom sides just because relaxed attitude and underestimation. This is different, Preston will demand their full attention and best effort. For me, home win is clear as a tear.

Bet: Huddersfield -0.5
Odd: 1.91 (William Hill)
Stake: 8/10
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English value betting, Friday 21 Oct

2011-10-21T15:47:00.000+02:00

Accrington Stanley - Cheltenham Town

Stanley have only one league win out of last eight (Aldershot), while Chelthenham have noticed three straight wins (two away) and Cup win at Wycombe (scored 10 in those four). Here’re the opposite trends and very good momentum for the Town. 3.07 for their win looks tasty and represents a nice value.

Bet: Cheltenham
Odd: 3.07 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 2/10

Cambridge Utd. - Lincoln City

This is the clash between the sides that go in opposite directions. Utd are contender for promotion, City for relegation. The hosts have a decent home record with five wins out of eight, Lincoln have five defeats out of eight away. Last time on the road City defeated second from the bottom - Alfreton, but before that five straight defeats with only one goal scored. Some value on a home win.

a
Bet: Cambridge
Odd: 1.84 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 2/10
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blue square bet premier, 18 Oct

2011-10-18T18:41:00.000+02:00

Like the look of two games in Blue Square Bet Premier.

Darlington at home vs. Barrow. After run of six games without a win, the hosts made three wins out of last four. Visitors have three defeats of last four away games, in last two conceded five in each. Momentum is on a home side and 2.16 at 188bet for their win looks very generous.

Southport away vs. Gateshead. Gateshead have very good record at home with just one defeat (four wins and three draws), but they’re in a serious downtrend. Two defeats of last three games and in those two conceded nine goals! Opponents Wrexham and Luton are top sides, but confidence cannot be sky-high. On the other hand, Southport have noticed four wins of last five games and five straight wins on the road! In my numbers, no way Gateshead could be as short as 1.85 and I see price on the visitors as very appealing.

a
Bet 1: Darlington to win
Odd: 2.16 (188bet)
Stake: 2/10
s
Bet 2: Southport +0.25
Odd: 2.08 (Bet365)
Stake: 2/10
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Brazil betting, two value bets 16 Oct

2011-10-16T17:09:00.000+02:00

Two value bets for Brazil night.

Botafogo - Atl. Paranaense

For a home win, the best offered odd is 1.57. In my notebook it is a bit lower and since Botafogo won seven games by two or more of last ten wins, I am taking -1.

Bet: Botafogo -1ah
Odd: 2.00 (Ladbrokes)
Stake: 2/10
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Santos - Gremio

Santos have only one win of last five games (four defeats), but are generally good at home with 7 wins of 13 home wins. Gremio have two defeats in a row and not so good record on the road with 9 defeats of 13 games (in those, scored only 9 goals and conceded 24). Additionally, they haven’t defeated Santos away for more than 10 years. Again, there’s some value on home side.

Bet: Santos -0.5
Odd: 2.21 (188bet)
Stake: 2/10
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Premier and League One, Sat 15th Oct

2011-10-14T23:18:00.001+02:00

Stoke - Fulham

No big philosophy here. Hosts are traditionally very good at home, visitors are bad away. Tony Pulis made some big shopping at the transfer market with intention to “step on the next level” (whatever it is). They have had some problems with the fatigue caused by Europa League, but there’s the same situation with Fulham. Stoke have scored only four goals in seven games, Fulham same number in opening six. Then, they trashed QPR 6-0 at home and pumped the odds for home win far above evens. The Potters are undefeated at home in the first three, playing against strong sides L’pool, Spurs and Man Utd. I expect a tight game, lots of set-pieces, combat in the air and home win by one.

Bet: Stoke -0.25
Odd: 1.88 (Bet365)

Stake: 8/10

Stevenage - Charlton

Interesting odds here. Stevenage started their debut season very well, even thrashed Sheff Wed at home 5-1. After that, four straight league defeats. On the other hand, Charlton are topping the table and are still undefeated. On the road five wins out of six (one draw) with an average of two goals per a game. With Hudders on the road and Sheff Wed playing Steel City derby at Bramall Lane, it could be a nice chance to make a distance on the top. No significant missings on the both sides and they have never played before. I have no illusions this will be an afternoon walk for the Addicks, but am pretty shocked to see Charlton as high as 2.60. 0-2 correct score.

Bet: Charlton -0.25
Odd: 2.24 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 7/10
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Brazil betting, two value bets 12 Oct

2011-10-12T12:00:00.000+02:00

Bahia - Cruzeiro, Bahia -0.25 @ 2.15 (bet365)

Bahia have three straight home wins, Cruzeiro three straight defeats on the road. The hosts also stayed undefeated at the hands of Botafogo in previous round which should be a decent morale boost. My only concern is their previous meetings that saw Botafogo winning last four (both home and away) and at the same place they won last time 7-0. But, at this price it’s a decent value on Bahia.

Bet: Bahia -0.25
Odd: 2.15 (Bet365)
Stake: 2/10
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Corinthians - Botafogo, Corinthians -0.5 @ 1.88 (Ladbrokes)

Corinthians are the first with great home record 10W-1D-3D. Botafogo are fifth, but it seems they’re in some kind of downtrend. Winless in last three (one win of last six in league), in the previous round played only a draw against Bahia. Nothing much to say, in my opinion this is a good price for a home win.

Bet: Corinthians
Odd: 1.88 (Ladbrokes)
Stake: 2/10
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League One Betting, Oldham - MK Dons

2011-10-10T10:50:00.004+02:00

MK Dons had a mini crisis of four games without a win (including top oppositions Hudders, Sheff Wed and Charlton), while in the last round ended it with great 3-0 home victory over Notts County. They’re full of optimism, want to win the league and will certainly finish inside top six. Paul Dickov’s side has only one home win out of five (Rochdale), counting previous season it is one out of 15. They have experience (including Shefki Kuqi) and will have plenty of problems to cope with the Dons’ pace and passing game. Monday always calls for some caution, so no straight win.

Bet: MK Dons -0.25
Odd: 1.93 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 8/10
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Value betting, Flamengo - Fluminense

2011-10-09T13:03:00.001+02:00

I’ve been struggling to understand odds for this game. In my numbers Fluminense shouldn’t be odds-on, in fact Flamengo shouldn’t be above evens to win this game. Ok, Fluminense have only one defeat of last eight, Flamengo in the previous home game defeated bottom side America, before that winless in four at home... But, seven days ago Flamengo won vs. Sao Paulo on the road which should be a big morale boost and they've lost (against Flu) just once out of last 14 matches (both home and away). Fluminense are champions from previous season, Flamengo from season before. Again, price looks simply wrong. Draw no bet eats my value and I am going on straight home win.

Bet: Flamengo
Odd: 2.95 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 2/10
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League One betting, Sheff Wed - Chesterfield

2011-10-08T09:41:00.000+02:00

Sheff Wed have the perfect home record with five out of five (goal diff 13-4) and in every game scored at least two. In the previous round, they noticed a massive win against (undefeated till then) Hartlepool on the road. After disappointing previous season, Wednesday finally look like promotion contender. Nothing much to say about Chesterfield, on the road defeated Bournemouth and lost other four. I read somewhere this is sort of a derby (not sure is that just because the distance) and that should be a reason for pretty decent price for the hosts.

Bet: Sheff Wed -0.75
Odd: 1.96 (Canbet)
Stake: 7/10
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Russia 2 betting, Khimki – Alania

2011-10-03T10:50:00.000+02:00

Khimki made two away defeats in a row, but before that had five straight home wins (I took into account all five were against bottom side clubs). Alania should be a stronger side, they played in Europa League qualifications against Besiktas, but in the league have three defeats and a draw of last four away. Odd on a home side is simply too high. Small stake, of course.

Bet: Khimki 0.0
Odd: 3.75 (Sportingbet)
Stake: 2/10
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Premier League betting, Tottenham - Arsenal

2011-10-02T12:49:00.000+02:00

Kind of an obvious bet. I cannot remember when (ever?) Spurs were so short (2.20) against Arsenal, at any place in any competition. They’ll have some confidence. On the other hand, Arsenal are 13th, same confidence but leaky defence. There were 13 goals scored last year in three games between these rivals, Tottenham have kept only one clean sheet in last 31 matches against Arsenal. Over is a pure logic.

Bet: Over 2.5

Odd: 1.81 (188bet)

Stake: 8/10

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Saturday bets - 1 Oct

2011-10-01T09:39:00.006+02:00

Reading - Middlesbrough

Will be very brief, today. Think the odds aren’t set correctly here. Reading are not the same team from last season (without Shane Long). Same thing was in their previous two away games when they were rated 2.20-2.35. They won seven points from last three though, but not top rivals (Donny, Coventry, B.City). ‘Boro are still undefeated, four of four on the road with best defence in league - only five conceded in first nine (haven’t conceded in last four). Price is very good and main reason for my bet.

Bet: 'Boro 0.0
Odd: 2.12 (Ladbrokes)
Stake: 7/10

Crystal Palace - West Ham

Palace look more solid than last season, but I think they’re punching above their weight and expect them to hit a bad streak very soon. They scored three goals in midweek derby to defeat Brighton (six of their 12 goals they scored in last 12 mins), but before that had three defeats in a row. The Hammers have had plenty of problems at home (last time lost vs. Ipswich 0-1), but on the road three defeats and one draw against Millwall. Conceded just one goal in these four. As with ‘Boro, I feel the price is too good to be refused.

Bet: West Ham -0.25

Odd: 1.87 (Pinnacle)

Stake: 7/10

Brentford - Huddersfield

Brentford got new manager and in the first game defeated Oldham away. It is certainly a morale boost for the squad that in three home games before that noticed just a point. Hudders are undefeated in (I think) 35 league games so far. They are again promotion contenders, although have six draws of opening 10 games (four wins). They’re usually overconfident, they know to act like prima donnas and I am avoiding them against bottom sides. Brentford have enough quality to pull out the best of them, but aren’t strong enough to win. In my opinion, of course. Additionally, Hudders conceded two late goals last weekend against Leyton at home (2-2) which is embarrassing I’d say and need to respond.

Bet: Hudders 0.0
Odd: 1.96 (Ladbrokes)
Stake: 8/10
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Two value bets - 30 Sep

2011-09-30T16:56:00.001+02:00

Two value bets.

England League Two, Southend - Shrewsbury

The hosts have noticed three wins in a row (all three without conceding), in the last round trashed Rotherham away. Two important players are back. Shrewsbury defeated Torquay last weekend, but have some injuries in the defence line for this match.

It is third against second, but I think Southend is overpriced.

Bet: Southend -0.25
Odd: 2.16 (188bet)
Stake: 2/10

Ireland 1, Bohemians - St. Patrick`s Athletic

Both sides are fighting for a spot for Europe, precisely Bohs must win to stay in contention. They lost on the road against relegation contender UCD, in the midweek game and have few days less for a rest. Bohemians have same number of wins and defeats at home and against Pats play traditionally tight games. Visitors have five points more than the hosts and four straight wins on the road (two of these in Cup against second league sides) and all without conceding. I expect another tight game, but like the odds for Pats. Same handicap and small stake again.

Bet: St. Patrick's -0.25
Odd: 2.02 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 2/10
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Conference betting, 27 Sep

2011-09-27T16:57:00.003+02:00

I’ve made a trip to Conference...

Kidderminster Harriers - Grimsby Town

The Harriers have two wins of last three rounds and only one home defeat (at the opening day). They seem to be in the uptrend (oppositely from the visitors) and have same points as play-off placed York. Grimsby have noticed two defeats of last three games, on the road one win, one draw, three defeats and haven’t scored on four of those five away. My price (without proper team news though) is 1.90. Guess over 2.5 would be a good choice as well.

Bet: Kidderm. -0.5
Odd: 2.13 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 2/10
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Telford United - Alfreton Town

United are back to home after two away games and two draws against strong opponents, Mansfield 1-1 and Fleetwood 2-2 (conceded in the stoppage time). They’ve won five of last six competitive games at home against Alfreton. 2.20 is also very good price in my opinion.

Bet: Telford
Odd: 2.20 (William Hill)

Stake: 2/10
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At the first sight, it looked like a big value on Mansfield against Wrexham, 0.0 (dnb) is as high as 2.63. But just have read they’re becoming a fans owned football club. Enough to live it alone...

Both bets are small stakes, naturally.

ss
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Value betting 25 Sep, Finland and Brazil

2011-09-25T15:00:00.001+02:00

KTP - GIFK, Finland 3A

I found a massive value in 2.20 (Bet365) for a home win. Then, in the blink of the eye price dropped to 1.91 (mine is 1.89), while at 188bet it is 1.75!
I am going to take a walk to some betting shop and game won't be in my statistic.

Botafogo - Sao Paulo

This is game of the day (night) in Brazil, 3rd against 2nd. Both sides have been playing pretty well lately. Two weeks ago, Botafogo were humiliated against 16th placed Ceara away. But, Botafogo also have won last four games (both home and away) against Sao Paulo. I'd say everything above evens is a value.

Bet: Botafogo -0.5
Odd: 2.13 (188bet)
Stake: 2/10
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League One betting, Bournemouth - Hartlepool

2011-09-24T12:51:00.001+02:00

The Cherries started the season in a very bad manner with six defeats in opening seven games. That record has been improved in last two trips to bottom two sides, Leyton and Exeter (both wins, 3-1 and 2-0). However, I am not sure how it really improved the atmosphere in the club and relation fans - Eddie Mitchell. Club sold plenty of important players, play-off looks very far and they could even find themselves in the relegation battle. There’re also long injury list. Four players injured in that away games, Symes and Partington are out as well and number of other players also receiving treatment. New signing Stephane Zubar will go straight in to the squad. Bournemouth beat the Pools only once of last eleven occasions (six draws though).

On the other hand, Monkey Hangers have been noticing a terrific start. They’re undefeated in eight, hold fifth position and have noticed four straight wins (bottom half sides, though). On the road they have two wins and two draws and scored nine in those (only Charlton scored that much). No injury concerns for manager Mick Wadsworth. They won’t lack in confidence since last season they won at the same place, but against Eddie Howe’s Bournemouth.

Think the bookmakers overreacted on Bournemouth’s two wins and I see price on visitors very attractive (in a free fall, currently). Expect the Pools to win by one, but cover the draw.

Bet: Hartlepool 0.0
Odd: 2.13 (Bet365)
Stake: 7/10

EDIT: I put a wrong price by mistake, changed now. It's not in a free fall. : )
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Championship betting, Middlesbrough - Ipswich

2011-09-24T11:40:00.000+02:00

‘Boro have suffered the first defeat this season against Crystal Palace in Carling Cup (won there in league three days before). They have scored in each game this season (with no clean sheet at home games though), have been playing really well and are one of the contenders for a direct promotion. Top scorer, Marvin Emnes, was rested in Cup defeat, while defender Joe Bennett is available after suspension.

Ipswich seems to be recovered from a 1-7 humiliation at Peterborough, since they’ve noticed two wins of last three games (Leeds and Coventry, both at home). However, their defence concedes freely and remains the worst in the league with 16 goals in seven games (five of those were over 2.5). They have only one defeat against ‘Boro in 10 meetings in the top two divisions (back to Sep 2009). Winger Martin and defender Sonko are major doubts.

I think that Ipswich aren’t that bad as it looked in one moment and they can put a decent fight at Riverside. Wouldn’t even exclude the possibility of first class surprise. Four of last five games between these clubs ended with four or more goals and I’m gonna back it for once again.

Bet: Over 2.75
Odd: 1.88 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 8/10
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League One betting, Bury - MK Dons

2011-09-24T10:41:00.000+02:00

Bury reached promotion, but are on a very good way for an immediate return to fourth tier. They have five straight defeats in a league, scored only three goals in those and conceded 14! Liverpool’s striker, David Ammo, came for a month loan deal and players organized their meeting in the midweek with a wish to lift the mood.

The Dons ended their unbeaten run in Sheffield against Wednesday (losing 1-3), then drew at home against Hudders and lost in Cup vs. Burnley. They have had a plenty of problems with injured players, at Tuesday with suspensions and cup-tied players as well. On top of that, Bowditch, Williams and Potter picked up minor knocks and will have a late fitness test. However, four players will make their return to the squad with Clinton Morrison who came on one month deal from Sheff Wed.

Bury sold some important players (Ryan Lowe is the most significant) and they will be really struggling through the season. The Dons are serious contenders for play-off (at least) and despite the problems with missing players, this is the sort of the game they must win.

Bet: MK Dons -0.25
Odd: 1.81 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 8/10
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Univ. C.Vallejo - Alianza Atletico, Peru 1, 23h (CET)

2011-09-23T19:22:00.000+02:00

One small value bet for me. I would give 1.70 for a home side and prices at most of the books are between 1.70-1.80. It definitely worth of a punt at 1.90, but no reasons to go crazy. We’re talking about Peru.

Bet: UCV
Odd: 1.90 (Gamebookers)
Stake: 2/10
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Premier League betting, Fulham - Man City

2011-09-18T13:55:00.001+02:00

Pretty obvious reasons, plus I am sure that playing in Europa League will have bigger impact on Fulham (due to smaller number of squad players, of course). They have plenty of problems to score and I can’t see that changing this time. This is a great price.

Bet: Man City -0.75
Odd: 2.08 (188bet)
Stake: 7/10
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League One betting, Sheff Utd - Colchester

2011-09-17T13:29:00.001+02:00

Sheff Utd are second and still remain as top promotion contenders, but at Tuesday got a smack in the mouth from Hudders (not defeated in 34?!). Now they need to bounce back immediately, or will start to lose confidence, maybe even fans’ support. Midfielder Montgomery will miss again. He brings the strength, without him they have win, draw and a defeat of last 3.

Colchester are typical mid-table side who, actually like to play against league top teams. They went to Preston at the opening day and won 4-2 (yeah, I was on Preston), stayed undefeated at Scunny and Brentford and lost 2-3 at Hudders. They scored in nine of ten games this season and conceded in every, have three 1-1 draws in a row (cannot play it forever) and I thing they were lucky in several occasions.

The Blades are certain favourites, but I think Colchester won’t have any respect, they can score (once, at least) and make this game very interesting. I am going on goals, instead home win. (With over 2.75 you need four goals, with three - half win.)

Bet: Over 2.75
Odd: 2.05 (188bet)
Stake: 7/10
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League One betting, Stevenage - Notts County

2011-09-17T12:06:00.001+02:00

I’ll try to be brief today. Stevenage are newcomers in the third tier and are flying high in the moment. They have only one defeat out of eight games and that one was MK Dons away. Two home wins in a row (scored 9 in those), at Tuesday they demolished Sheff Wed 5-1! This is their first season in the League One and they won’t drop into lethargy, will push till their limits.

County have made a good start as well, noticed seven points of last three games. But, there’re two problems. First, they play much better and collect more points at home than on the road. Second, County played Juve last week (got home at Friday), played against Walsall at home at Saturday and traveled to Exeter on a midweek game. They have to feel some fatigue.

Bet: Stevenage -0.5
Odd: 2.12 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 6/10

To the subscribers. Due to earlier kick-off, you won't get all previews for today (will receive it tomorrow). So, visit the blog later... Thanks.
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Championship betting, Millwall - West Ham 13:30 (CET)

2011-09-17T11:20:00.001+02:00

Yeah, I know this is a big derby, fierce rivals, riots outside the stadium and who knows what else. But, Millwall don’t seem to be same team from previous season, are winless in last four, haven’t scored in last three in league and I think this is very good price. Expect West Ham to nick it for 1-0.

Bet: West Ham 0.0
Odd: 1.82 (188bet)
Stake: 8/10
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Premier League Betting, QPR - Newcastle

2011-09-12T10:28:00.000+02:00

QPR have brought six new players, but I still don’t know what to expect from them. But do know what to expect from this lad. Two times a post at Wigan, it's the time for a goal. Small bet though...

If you’re interested in details, here’s my full betting preview written for Premier League Betting:

QPR - Newcastle

Bet: Adel Taarabt anytime goalscorer
Odd: 4.10 (Unibet)
Stake: 2/10
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Championship betting, Barnsley - Leicester

2011-09-10T14:02:00.000+02:00

Cannot help myself, but have to take Leicester. Hate SGE and his football philosophy, but with such a big spending their squad simply jump-out from the rest of the league (along with West Ham). Barnsley lost both at home, made two good results on the road. Well, I have nothing too much to say about them. Lovre, Ricardo Vaz Te, strikers Davies and Noble-Lazarus, then defender Addison are all out. For Leicester, David Nugent is injured and Beckford will have his debut. Leicester have won nine of the last ten league games against Barnsley with keeping clean sheets in eight of them.

It hurts the most when I lose my money betting on Leicester or Man City, but as I said cannot help myself. Taking -0.25 in a try to keep my nerves.

Bet: Leicester -0.25
Odd: 1.78 (188bet)
Stake: 7/10
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Serbia betting, 10 Sep

2011-09-10T13:30:00.000+02:00

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One speculative bet, from Serbian league. Normally, small stake.

Bet: Jagodina or draw (double chance)
Odd: 3.70 (bwin)
Stake: 2/10
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League One betting, Sheff Wed - MK Dons

2011-09-10T13:13:00.000+02:00

Sheff Wed have noticed a valuable, hard-fought point at the Valley. My impression is they could have done more and stayed on a point because Megson’s defensively 4-5-1 formation. When he noticed his mistake, it was already 0-1 with a tendency to make it worse. Anyways, the Owls play differently at Hillsborough, have all three wins so far and scored at least two in each of them. They remain strong favourites for play-off. Goalie is out, Nicky Weaver went to USA to see a specialist about a knee injury.

The Dons are on the top! Five wins and a draw of first six matches. Karl Robinson’s side play nice attacking football, have scored 17 goals in last five competitive games and was described like Real Madrid by the opponents (well, maybe it’s not too much when it comes from Yeovil). No reasons for a fear, or big respect. No injuries.

I am pretty sure Megson won’t start with 4-5-1 formation, the draw won’t be good enough. The Dons don’t know to play defensively and I guess they don’t want to. Fancy them to win it, but will go on goals as a better option. Five of last six games between these teams ended with three or more goals, last three with four or more.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.80 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 7/10
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Championship betting, Bristol City - Brighton

2011-09-10T11:51:00.001+02:00

The Robins have noticed just one win out of first five games (interesting, it was when no one expected at Leicester 2-1), at home played three games without a goal scored (Ipswich 0-3, Pompey 0-0 and Swindon in Cup 0-1). Club did the poor job in the transfer market, missing to strengthen their defence (brought some Premier League inexperience). They managed to keep Nicky Maynard (precisely, he didn’t manage to go), but only unless his contract expires next summer. So, I doubt his motivation during the season. Except the games against the league giants where his talent could be noticed, like in Leicester (both goals). Defender, Jamie McAllister, has been ruled out for two months, another defender Liam Fontaine is also sidelined, while goalie Dean Gerken is struggling with a back injury and will be probably out.

Brighton have been noticing an impressive start in Championship (best start to a league season in 54 years) with four wins and a draw out of five (only draw was vs. Blackpool 2-2, goal conceded in additional time). I don’t think it is just the syndrome of the first season in the higher level, they heavily invested in top striker, Craig Mackail-Smith (2.5million pound, possibly rising to 3.25million), young Will Buckley costs a million. Think they won’t stop after only few victories, like Millwall last season for example. No injury worries since mentioned Mackail-Smith and Buckley are declared fit, as well as defender Vincelot.

I am going to bet on a winning horse. As I said, I have reasons to believe their good run won’t stop soon. The Robins will stay in the league, but at the moment don’t look competitive (unless Maynard goes crazy). Also, books don’t seem to believe in the Seagulls and offered pretty high odds. I like it.

Bet: Brighton -0.25
Odd: 2.17 (188bet)
Stake: 8/10
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Ireland betting, Friday 9 Sep

2011-09-09T16:28:00.000+02:00

Two value bets for tonight. In Ireland 1 I go on Bohemians. Ladbrokes offers 1.62, my odd is 1.38. They won vs. Drogheda 14 of last 15 (both home and away), but five of last six away won by a goal, so no handicap. In second division, value is on Longford Town. Double chance is at 2.50, while my odd is 2.34.

Despite yesterday’s defeat in Finland, value bets still produce very good results.

Good luck, people!

Drogheda United - Bohemians

Bet: Bohemians
Odd: 1.62 (Ladbrokes)
Stake: 2/10

Limerick FC - Longford Town

Bet: Longford or draw
Odd: 2.50 (William Hill)
Stake: 2/10
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Finland betting, MYPA 47 - IFK Mariehamn 5:30 (cet)

2011-09-08T13:40:00.000+02:00

l
My calculation says it's a very big value on the home side. Anything above 1.80 is worth of a shot.

Bet: MYPA 47 -0.5
Odd: 2.11 (Canbet)
Stake: 2/10
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Brazil betting, Botafogo - Ceara

2011-09-07T11:59:00.000+02:00

o
A value bet...

Bet: Botafogo -1ah
Odd: 1.85 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 3/10
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EURO 2012 betting, Serbia - Faroe Islands

2011-09-06T13:11:00.001+02:00

At this point of time, we can score only by accident, like we did in N.Ireland (decent display though). In last 5 (including friendlies) scored a total of three goals. Yeah, it’s only Faroe Islands, but players certainly feel some fatigue from the trip and they already calculated three points from this game. I don’t expect more than 10.000 people which could be additionally uninspiring for the players. Islanders will park the bus, they held Italians on 0-1. In last three occasions we didn’t defeat them by more than three. Not so strong case and small bet. Additionally, I’ve noticed correct score 0-0 is at 40.00 (Unibet). Worth a micro stake. In our mentality is to spoil everything when literally no one expects.

P.S.: Congrats to our skipper for 100th appearance. Wish you at least four more!

Bet: F. Islands +3 (EH)
Odd: 2.38 (Paddy Power)
Stake: 3/10

Gamble: 0-0 correct score
Odd: 40.00 (Unibet)
Stake: 0.3/10
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Russia betting, Baltika - Torpedo

2011-09-06T11:57:00.000+02:00

Russia 2. I’ve checked today’s seven games and only in this one find any value. Home side should be more motivated and I had some caution adding an advantage to Baltika with potentially missing players (yeah, try to find some team news in Russian second), but I am still far from offered odd. I’d rate it as 1.79-1.84. And it’s interesting the better value is on 0.0 then on away win (double checked).

Baltika - Torpedo
Bet: Torpedo 0.0
Odd: 2.10 (Bet365)
Stake: 2/10
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Sunday betting, 4 Sep

2011-09-04T12:39:00.002+02:00

o
One value bet for tonight, no team news, small stake.

Brazil 1, Palmeiras - Cruzeiro
Bet: Palmeiras
Odd: 2.00 (Interwetten)
Stake: 2/10
p
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League One betting, Hartlepool - Exeter

2011-09-03T12:57:00.001+02:00

Pools have four draws of opening five matches (and one win), but they played against sides like MK Dons, Hudders, Sheff Utd (Carling), Stevenage away. Before losing at Scunny (Cup), they had won at Rochdale (3-1). Some important players are returning to the squad, key defender Sam Collins and good-old Solano are fit, as well as forward Sam Collins and midfielder Antony Sweeney. Only doubt is striker James Poole. They have signed former Coventry City defender Stephen Wright on a short-term deal.

After three defeats in a row, Exeter defeated Chesterfield at home 3-1. During the midweek, they eliminated Plymouth after penalties. And while it’s certainly a moral boost, 120 minutes of play also should have an impact on team’s fatigue. Striker, Guillem Bauzà, after got injured last weekend will be probably out for few weeks.

Despite so many draws, Hartlepool look fine, they have some players back to the team and it’s the time for the first home win. Situation about Poole forces me to take another -0.25 and some covering of a draw. Still fine with the odds.

Bet: Hartlepool -0.25
Odd: 2.00 (188bet)
Stake: 7/10
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League One betting, Notts County - Bournemouth

2011-09-03T11:49:00.000+02:00

County have two wins and three defeats so far, but defeats came against league giants Charlton at home and Sheff Wed and Preston away in last two rounds. At Preston, they were doing well until ten last minutes when conceded twice (second goal directly from goalkeeper!). Their striker-legend, Lee Hughes, is in doubt, but few important players are returning (skipper Bishop (MID), Ravenhill (MID) and Ben Burges (STR)).

Bournemouth seem to be in a complete mess. From a promotion till relegation contenders, just in six months. Eddie Howe was their guru and since he left to Burnley, club started a free fall. The Cherries have sold plenty of important players (midfielder, Liam Feeney is the last on the list) and I think it won’t be such a big surprise if they find themselves in League Two next season.

This should be a six-pointer and naturally tight affair. I don’t like to bet on County without Lee Hughes (considering odds movement, he’s out), but this should be a home win. Just in case -0.25. 1-0 correct score.

Bet: Notts County -0.25
Odd: 1.91 (Canbet)
Stake: 8/10
l
Probably one more preview, stay tuned...
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Russia betting, kick-off 4pm (cet)

2011-09-01T12:27:00.000+02:00

Two value bets, based on stats only. Russian second tier. Small stakes, naturally.

Kamaz - Yenisey
Bet: Yenisey 0.0
Odd: 3.00 (Bet365)
Stake: 2/10
.
Mordovia - Sibir
Bet: Mordovia -0.25
Odd: 2.07 (Bet365)
Stake: 2/10
p
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Finland betting, MPS Helsinki - Kapylan Pallo

2011-08-30T12:52:00.001+02:00

Can’t believe what I see here. Home side is as short as 1.50. Made some calculations and got huge price on away win. Since I can’t get any team news, I put in my formula a strong advantage for home side, but not even close to the books. For me, it definitely worth of a small wager.

Bet: K.Pallo 0.0
Odd: 3.75 (Bet365)
Stake: 2/10
p
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Championship betting, Middlesbrough – Coventry

2011-08-27T08:33:00.000+02:00

After a draw against Pompey at the opening day, ‘Boro have noticed five wins in a row (three in league, two in Cup). Tony Mowbray’s men have been playing really well and they could be serious contenders for promotion. However, their both home games produced four goals (conceded three).

Coventry are the opposite, their start brought them only a point (last round, Watford at home 0-0). However, their key man, striker Freddy Eastwood is fit after playing half an hour against Watford. ‘Boro remain as favorites, but I expect a goal from visitors and take goals instead.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.93 Pinnacle
Stake: 7/10
p
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League One betting, Yeovil - Sheff Utd

2011-08-26T22:07:00.000+02:00

The Blades are having a very good start, since they’ve noticed three wins and a draw (in previous round where conceded a late equalizer vs. Tranmere). There’s no big philosophy, difference in quality is big and both sides will finished at the opposite sides of the table. Utd’s manager, Danny Wilson, did some rotation against Everton in midweek, but this is actually their seventh game for 20 days! So, I am taking some cover in case of a draw.

Bet: Sheff Utd -0.25
Odd: 1.86 Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10
p
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Carling Cup betting, West Ham - Aldershot

2011-08-24T12:19:00.000+02:00

West Ham are still (my, at least) top favorites for direct promotion, they simply have an unreal players for the second tier. They won both away games, but at Upton Park noticed just a point from two games. Both times they conceded in the last minutes (Cardiff 0-1, Leeds 2-2). I think they will try to finally put some good display at home and notice a convincing victory. Big Sam will certainly rotate, but he has very good fringe players anyway. West Ham also have a good League Cup history results.

Aldershot started the season in League Two with a win on opening day and three defeats in a row (without scoring). This is very big game for the Shots, but I think all will depend on West Ham and their approach to the game. Visitors will try to keep the pace as long as they can, but difference in the quality is simply huge.

It’s a good chance for the Hammers to demonstrate the power. They have a squad to successfully play in all competitions and simply they owe it to the fans.

Bet: West Ham -1.25
Odd: 1.81 Pinnacle
Stake: 7/10
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Carling Cup betting, Peterborough - Middlesbrough

2011-08-24T11:36:00.000+02:00

The Posh started this campaign in a very good manner with two wins, draw and a defeat. These are results: C.Palace (H) 2-1, Stevenage - previous Cup round (A) 2-2, Blackpool (A) 1-2, Millwall (A) 2-2, Ipswich (H) 7-1! They’re without Gabriel Zakuani, Nicky Ajose, Dave Hibbert and goalkeeper Joe Lewis, but it’s not about who will play. The Posh have a system that always brings goals, for and against. Additionally, their last 13 of 15 League Cup games ended with three or more goals.

‘Boro started to justify the role of favorites from previous season. Change of managers, looking for suitable style of play, questionable players’ selection were the problems, but now they finally started to look like serious promotion contenders. Three wins and a draw in league and win over Walsall away in the Cup. Four of these five produced three or more goals. Also, last six Carling Cup games ended with three or more goals.

I think Tony Mowbray’s side is a slight favourite here, they’re in very good shape and will certainly try to keep the momentum with another win. On the other, hand... It’s Posh. Goals for me.

Bet: Over 3ah
Odd: 1.85 Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10
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Carling Cup betting, Aston Villa - Hereford

2011-08-23T14:24:00.000+02:00

Villa and McLeish made a very good start in Premier and I doubt he’ll risk spoiling that momentum. We’ll see some fringe players tonight, but the fact is reserve team played a game last night (away to Blackburn) and he won’t be able to rotate too much.

Hereford are probably one of the worst sides in League Two. One draw and three defeats in previous four rounds (goal diff. 1-9). All games were against sides that will be fighting to avoid relegation. Premier League scalp would be a huge boost (they’ve never beaten a top-flight club in this competition), but quite frankly can’t see how it is possible. Trying to stay in the league should be their top priority. Additionally, Hereford have a long injury list. Captain defender Stam, goalie Barlett, defender Dalibard are all out, midfielder Clist is cup-tied, while left-back Joe Heath and midfielder Rob Purdie are in doubt.

I expect an entertaining game and sort off easier training session for Villa. It’s huge difference even between Villa’s reserves and Hereford’s first squad. 4-0, 5-0 correct score.

Bet: Aston Villa -2ah
Odd: 1.88 Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10
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Premier League betting, Man Utd - Tottenham

2011-08-22T12:28:00.003+02:00

In previous season, United had terrific record of 18 wins and one draw of 19 home games. There’s also a really weird tradition that says United haven’t lost against Spurs in last 24 competitive games (both home and away) and haven’t lost at home for 22 years (December 1989)! Bad sides. De Gea’s start in clubs doesn’t seem promising at all. In both games (Man City and WBA) he made mistakes, punished with goals. Defenders Rio, Vidic and Rafael are out for several weeks (months?). Central duo will be Evans - Jones (Smalling). It’s still Man Utd, but defence doesn’t look rock solid. Javier Hernandez is also out.

Spurs didn’t play first game (London riots), but showed some potential trashing Hearts away 5-0. It’s hard to be confident with such a dreadful record at Old Trafford, but I think they’re not without chances. Bale and Lennon could cause plenty of problems on the flanks and more important for my bet, I think if Arry settle for a draw he’ll very likely lose by one. Spurs will need a goal or two for positive result. I hope he knows it. : ) Additionally, I think they won’t hesitate to test De Gea from the distance. Sounds interesting the fact they scored 15 goals from outside the penalty area last season (more than any other side). Modric didn’t travel to Manchester since his saga doesn’t seem to be finished, despite Chelsea are about to sign Mata. Peter Crouch is in doubt, defenders Ledley King, Gallas and Hutton are out.

When United have defensive problems they usually play more attacking, to decrease pressure on the back four. Man Utd are favorites in my opinion, they get used to rotation but De Gea's for is something that doesn't give me enough confidence for that bet. Think Spurs can be very competitive and score at least once. I am taking goals. Gambles to think about, Van der Vaart anytime at 4.60 (Unibet) and Man Utd to win from behind at 9.50 (Betfair).

Bet: Over 2.75
Odd: 2.02 Pinnacle
Stake: 7/10
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Championship betting, Southampton - Millwall

2011-08-20T11:33:00.000+02:00

The Saints have made a perfect start with all three wins and I am about to think they really have a quality to fight for play-off at least. Including previous season, they have nine competitive wins in a row and eleven straight at home. They’re scoring for fun lately (13 goals in four games this season) and five of their last six encounters ended with four or more goals. They will be missing Richard Chaplow, Radhi Jaidi and Lee Barnard.

Millwall are also undefeated in the opening three rounds. They have a decent fire power with Liam Trotter and especially with Darius Henderson (if he manage to stay fit through the season). They scored twice in every of those three games, but interesting two times lost the advantage (conceded both times two goals in the space of 5 min). Dany N'Guessan has joined Therry Racon and Shaun Batt on Millwall’s injury list.

Lads from the Den won’t have too much respect on St Mary's and I am pretty sure they can score at least once (Henderson). The Saints won’t mind as long as they have one goal more on the balance. My sixth sense says draw or away win, but wouldn’t dare to oppose the leading side and their perfect run. Both teams are able to score a lot (and to concede), so my bet is over 2.5.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.98 188 bet
Stake: 7/10
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League One betting, Charlton - Scunthorpe

2011-08-19T22:31:00.003+02:00

The Addicks made a perfect start with all three wins over decent oppositions. Bournemouth at home and two away wins at pretty tough places, Notts County and Colchester (goal diff 6-1). Goalie, Rob Elliot, stays for now, since club has rejected an offer from Newcastle. After 10 years, Jason Euell, returned to the Valley and should make a first start for the club.

After a relegation from the 2nd tier, Scunny had to release several players (total of 10), including few keys. They started the season with two draws and home defeat in previous round vs. North End. I don’t expect too much from them this season. Glanford Park should be a hell place for many league sides and that should be enough for avoiding relegation, but far from play-off ambitions. Winger, Jimmy Ryan, will face a fitness test, while skipper Cliff Byrne (DEF) and Jordan Robertson (STR) continue to miss out.

Honestly, I am well surprised with these odds on Charlton. The hosts are serious promotion contenders and have been playing quite well, not a single reason to stop now. Early pick, since I expect it's gonna drop to 1.65-1.70.

Bet: Charlton -0,5

Odd: 1.80 Pinnacle

Stake: 7/10

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Championship betting, Cardiff - Brighton

2011-08-17T12:57:00.002+02:00

Before the start of the season, my impression was Cardiff lost some quality. But, two nice wins for them in the first two rounds. First lucky one at Upton Park, then they furiously finished the job for 35 min against B.City at home. Certainly, they won’t be lacking in confidence tonight. Only doubt is midfielder, Aron Gunnarsson, who will face the late fitness test. Cardiff haven’t lost last nine home league games against Brighton and lost only one of the last 12 in league. On the other hand, they never won the first three fixtures of a season in their 91-year league history (why should they now?). Every of their last seven home games produced three or more goals.

Brighton also made an impressive start of the campaign, winning both league games (and Carling Cup fixture). However, they were very fortunate in both of them. First scored a winner against Donny in 97th min and at Pompey, Liam Lawrence missed a penalty in 96th min for a draw. Maybe, they’re running out of luck. They play nice passing game and have great Craig Mackail-Smith in attack. It should make a serious threat for Welsh defence line. Only problem for Poyet is other striker Will Buckley (scored twice against Donny), got an injury and will be out for tonight. The Seagulls haven’t lost in nine away league games (6W, 3D).

Both sides won their games and we still haven’t seen their limits. I am closer to think that home win is on cards, but all that attacking potential should produce some goals and make a good entertainment. Over for me.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.86 Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10
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Champions League betting, Dinamo Zagreb - Malmo

2011-08-17T12:04:00.001+02:00

Home side has been trying to reach Champions League for 12(?) years. Usually they were unlucky like in previous two years (Red Bull Salzburg, Sheriff), or got too strong side like Arsenal, Werder, or Shakhtar. They have a decent squad with, in my opinion, enough quality to play CL group stage. Stadium has been renovated and will be packed tonight (some funny ticket price, less than 1 EUR). Atmosphere should be very good, despite their ultras are boycotting club’s chairman and not attending the games.

From those that I’ve read and seen (not an expert for Sweden), Malmo play Scandinavian football with long balls and plenty of running. This play usually fits well to Balkan teams, technically strong sides. Eliminating Rangers is a great achievement, but CL should be too much for Malmo.

Quality is on home side, home crowd and much more experience. I expect a comfortable win for Dinamo, 2-0 correct score.

Bet: Dinamo -1ah
Odd: 2.20 Victor Chandler
Stake: 7/10
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