Value betting, Flamengo - Fluminense

I’ve been struggling to understand odds for this game. In my numbers Fluminense shouldn’t be odds-on, in fact Flamengo shouldn’t be above evens to win this game. Ok, Fluminense have only one defeat of last eight, Flamengo in the previous home game defeated bottom side America, before that winless in four at home... But, seven days ago Flamengo won vs. Sao Paulo on the road which should be a big morale boost and they've lost (against Flu) just once out of last 14 matches (both home and away). Fluminense are champions from previous season, Flamengo from season before. Again, price looks simply wrong. Draw no bet eats my value and I am going on straight home win.

Bet: Flamengo
Odd: 2.95 (Pinnacle)

Stake: 2/10
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