EC Qualifiers - Sunday 7 Sep 2014


Georgia - Ireland, Ireland -0.25 at 2.05 (BetVictor)
Georgia hold France on a draw recently, lost in the dying seconds vs. Spain and will have 25k on the stands. On the other hand, in previous campaign they were in the group with Malta, Latvia, Israel, Croatia and Greece and noticed seven defeats out of ten. They have failed to score in five out of last seven internationals.
Ireland have won all five of their previous matches against Georgia (scored at least two in each) and started last three qualifiers with a win.


League Two betting - 6 Sep 2014


Southend United - Oxford United, Southend -0.75
Some decent value, comparing with my numbers. Southend have kept six clean sheets in last eight in league, while Oxford are winless in last nine league games (lost eight, drew one), have won only once in their last 14 away and against Southend lost seven and won one of their last eight in league.

Stevenage - York City, York 0.0 at 2.06 (MarathonBet)
York are unbeaten in last 10 away (6 wins), Stevenage with no clean sheet in last 11 in league.


Saturday betting - 23 Aug 2014


Chelsea - Leicester, Over 3.0 at 1.93 (Various)
Initial idea was to make a case for both teams to score, with Leicester scoring in each of last 34 fixtures (including Stoke, Man City and Fulham in Cup) and with Nigel Pearson having in mind “nothing to lose” rather than “let’s park the bus” attitude. But again, it is Mourinho and Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. And with addition of Costa and Fabregas, they looked mighty in the first half, against the side of approximately same quality as Leicester - I guess it could easily end with 5-0 score line. So I will appreciate Leicester scoring, but taking goal line instead.

Millwall - Rotheram, Millwall -0.5 at 2.11 (BetVictor) 
Millwall are definitely in-form side and being in-form is usually a key for betting in Championship. They had good finish of previous season and started this one really well. Apart of that, I personally really admire Ian Holloway and wouldn’t be too surprised if they end somewhere around the play-off line. Don't have to say too much about Rotheram, they have two defeats so far and one very fortunate win against Wolves.

Derby - Fulham, over 2.5 at 1.91 (Ladbrokes)
Neither of these sides hasn’t scored too much this season, but there were plenty of shots on/off the target and both have good attacking potential. Derby are favourites (probably not 1.65 favourites), while Magath could lose his nerves a bit and after nightmare start to go more attacking that he should. Gut feeling says this could be a goal fest.

Sunday betting - Championship and Veikkausliiga


Championship, Leicester - Leeds

Both sides haven’t changed things too much in a compare with previous season and both started the recent campaign with two wins. Since McDermott signed 3 years contract and took the charge in Leeds, six out of their eight games ended with over 2.5 goals. In the same period, eight out of nine Leicester’s matches produced 3 or more goals. Also, the Foxes had an average of 3.0 goals per a game in the previous season. Still early days in Championship, but I expect here same trends to continue.

Bet: Over 2.75
Odds: 2.09 (188bet)
Stake: 7/10



Finland 1, Inter Turku - HJK Helsinki

Inter have noticed six draws at home out a total of 11 games and three out of last four. HJK have two draws out of last three in the league, while eight of their last nine meetings ended also in a draw! I’m going to gamble. 

Bet: Draw
Odds: 3.71 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 3/10

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Europa League betting - 01 Aug

Chernomorets Odessa - Crvena Zvezda

Odessa have just started domain championship, put a real fight against Shakhtar and eventually lost 1-0. Interesting is they were resting some of key players for this game. They’re hard working side, invested some money and have ambitions in this competition.
My team are physically unprepared and it is quite obvious. Against Iceland side IBV, in previous round, first 30mins in Belgrade was absolute domination, then just keeping the ball. In re-match real problems came when we couldn’t keep the ball due to press that Icelanders performed. Dauda striker is waiting for a transfer to another club and looks not interested and pretty harmless, while central defenders are kid Lazic and fourth or fifth option from previous season Krneta.
No emotions when it is about betting, my call is Odessa and expected result 2-0.

Bet: Chernomorets -0.75
Odd: 2.02 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 7/10

Hajduk Split - Dila Gori

Think the visitors are underestimated, here. Hajduk are in the process of reorganization, they were very close to bankruptcy, now have a team full of young and not so expensive players. In the long term, I think they will be fine. In the previous round, they had lots of trouble against Macedonian side Horizont (2-1 at home, 1-1 away).
Visitors are not from attractive destination, but play very well these qualifiers. In previous round, they kicked-out Aalborg from Denmark on pretty impressive way - 3-0 at home, 0-0 in 2nd game. Last year, they eliminated AGF Aarhus (Denmark, again) and Anorthosis (Cyprus)!
Backing visitors and wouldn’t put you off from taking Dila Gori to progress (I see it is 2.55 at Bwin, it will be probably better at the day of a game).

Bet: Dila Gori +0.75
Odd: 2.06 (188bet)
Stake: 6/10

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Sunday gambling - Finland and Czech


Two units, each.

FINLAND 1
Honka - KuPS, Honka to win by 1 goal at 3.60 (bet365, Ladbrokes)

CZECH 1,
Jablonec - Brno, Jablonec to win to nil at 2.62 (PaddyPower)

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Sunday betting - goals in Denmark!


Odense - SonderjyskE

Odense haven’t signed any defensive player yet and last season they had 2nd worst record in league (59 goals shipped in 33 matches). Even more, for this game they will miss right-back Espen Ruud. And still, they’re favourites to win this one.
SonderjyskE are decent mid-table side with particularly good record on the road last season, they collected total of 24 points (just champions FC Kobenhavn took more). Also, their 33 games last season produced 110 goals, 3.33 in average (Odense had average of 3.36)!

Some stats. Six out of last seven Odense’s league games produced 3 or more goals (five of those 4, or more). Six out of last eight SonderjyskE’s had 3 or more (five with 4, or more). Also, three or more goals were seen in seven out of last nine matches of these two sides.

With a hope that Danish heat won’t affect players too much, I go for goals.

Bet: Over 2.75
Odd: 2.20 (188bet)
Stake: 7/10

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Saturday afternoon - Sweden


Saturday, Sweden 1, Hacken - Kalmar

Hacken are two places below the visitors and don’t seem to be happy bunnies at the moment. They haven’t won in last three home games (two defeats) and in previous round lost at AIK.  At home they’ve scored a total of only nine goals in 10 matches and collected 10 points - (three wins).
Kalmar are having a good run with two wins and two draws out of last four in league, two away wins in the last two games. At Hacken’s place, they haven’t lost in last seven visits - four wins. In fact, they’ve lost against Hacken only once out of 15 encounters, both home and away!
Going to back Kalmar not to lose, here. Good luck!

Bet: Kalmar +0.5
Odd: 2.16 (188bet)
Stake: 6/10

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