Championship betting - 27 Sep 2014


Ipswich - Rotherham, Ipswich at 2.02 (Matchbook)
Very good price, here. Ipswich have won three out of four this season at home (only defeat was vs. Norwich) and have three straight wins in the league (last one at Wigan). Rotherham are 19th, they’re winless in last four in league and have scored only six goals in 10 competitive games this season.





Denmark - Armenia, over 2.5 at 1.97 (Sbobet)
Really good odds for goals. Denmark have 6/7 over 2.5 at home and Armenia have 5/7 over 2.5 away. Armenia changed the style recently with arrival of new coach, playing in more attacking formation - which normally causes troubles in the back line. Meanwhile, they scored 10 goals in those five (two in Italy). I expect something like 3-1 Denmark.



EC Qualifiers - Sunday 7 Sep 2014


Georgia - Ireland, Ireland -0.25 at 2.05 (BetVictor)
Georgia hold France on a draw recently, lost in the dying seconds vs. Spain and will have 25k on the stands. On the other hand, in previous campaign they were in the group with Malta, Latvia, Israel, Croatia and Greece and noticed seven defeats out of ten. They have failed to score in five out of last seven internationals.
Ireland have won all five of their previous matches against Georgia (scored at least two in each) and started last three qualifiers with a win.


League Two betting - 6 Sep 2014


Southend United - Oxford United, Southend -0.75
Some decent value, comparing with my numbers. Southend have kept six clean sheets in last eight in league, while Oxford are winless in last nine league games (lost eight, drew one), have won only once in their last 14 away and against Southend lost seven and won one of their last eight in league.

Stevenage - York City, York 0.0 at 2.06 (MarathonBet)
York are unbeaten in last 10 away (6 wins), Stevenage with no clean sheet in last 11 in league.


Saturday betting - 23 Aug 2014


Chelsea - Leicester, Over 3.0 at 1.93 (Various)
Initial idea was to make a case for both teams to score, with Leicester scoring in each of last 34 fixtures (including Stoke, Man City and Fulham in Cup) and with Nigel Pearson having in mind “nothing to lose” rather than “let’s park the bus” attitude. But again, it is Mourinho and Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. And with addition of Costa and Fabregas, they looked mighty in the first half, against the side of approximately same quality as Leicester - I guess it could easily end with 5-0 score line. So I will appreciate Leicester scoring, but taking goal line instead.

Millwall - Rotheram, Millwall -0.5 at 2.11 (BetVictor) 
Millwall are definitely in-form side and being in-form is usually a key for betting in Championship. They had good finish of previous season and started this one really well. Apart of that, I personally really admire Ian Holloway and wouldn’t be too surprised if they end somewhere around the play-off line. Don't have to say too much about Rotheram, they have two defeats so far and one very fortunate win against Wolves.

Derby - Fulham, over 2.5 at 1.91 (Ladbrokes)
Neither of these sides hasn’t scored too much this season, but there were plenty of shots on/off the target and both have good attacking potential. Derby are favourites (probably not 1.65 favourites), while Magath could lose his nerves a bit and after nightmare start to go more attacking that he should. Gut feeling says this could be a goal fest.

Sunday betting - Championship and Veikkausliiga


Championship, Leicester - Leeds

Both sides haven’t changed things too much in a compare with previous season and both started the recent campaign with two wins. Since McDermott signed 3 years contract and took the charge in Leeds, six out of their eight games ended with over 2.5 goals. In the same period, eight out of nine Leicester’s matches produced 3 or more goals. Also, the Foxes had an average of 3.0 goals per a game in the previous season. Still early days in Championship, but I expect here same trends to continue.

Bet: Over 2.75
Odds: 2.09 (188bet)
Stake: 7/10



Finland 1, Inter Turku - HJK Helsinki

Inter have noticed six draws at home out a total of 11 games and three out of last four. HJK have two draws out of last three in the league, while eight of their last nine meetings ended also in a draw! I’m going to gamble. 

Bet: Draw
Odds: 3.71 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 3/10

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Europa League betting - 01 Aug

Chernomorets Odessa - Crvena Zvezda

Odessa have just started domain championship, put a real fight against Shakhtar and eventually lost 1-0. Interesting is they were resting some of key players for this game. They’re hard working side, invested some money and have ambitions in this competition.
My team are physically unprepared and it is quite obvious. Against Iceland side IBV, in previous round, first 30mins in Belgrade was absolute domination, then just keeping the ball. In re-match real problems came when we couldn’t keep the ball due to press that Icelanders performed. Dauda striker is waiting for a transfer to another club and looks not interested and pretty harmless, while central defenders are kid Lazic and fourth or fifth option from previous season Krneta.
No emotions when it is about betting, my call is Odessa and expected result 2-0.

Bet: Chernomorets -0.75
Odd: 2.02 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 7/10

Hajduk Split - Dila Gori

Think the visitors are underestimated, here. Hajduk are in the process of reorganization, they were very close to bankruptcy, now have a team full of young and not so expensive players. In the long term, I think they will be fine. In the previous round, they had lots of trouble against Macedonian side Horizont (2-1 at home, 1-1 away).
Visitors are not from attractive destination, but play very well these qualifiers. In previous round, they kicked-out Aalborg from Denmark on pretty impressive way - 3-0 at home, 0-0 in 2nd game. Last year, they eliminated AGF Aarhus (Denmark, again) and Anorthosis (Cyprus)!
Backing visitors and wouldn’t put you off from taking Dila Gori to progress (I see it is 2.55 at Bwin, it will be probably better at the day of a game).

Bet: Dila Gori +0.75
Odd: 2.06 (188bet)
Stake: 6/10

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Sunday gambling - Finland and Czech


Two units, each.

FINLAND 1
Honka - KuPS, Honka to win by 1 goal at 3.60 (bet365, Ladbrokes)

CZECH 1,
Jablonec - Brno, Jablonec to win to nil at 2.62 (PaddyPower)

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