Premier League and Championship betting, 17 March

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Fulham - Swansea

Fulham are in a pretty good shape, before stoppage time defeat at Birmingham they had three consecutive wins in league. At home they have four league wins out of last five (six out of eight) and at Cottage they have scored 29 of their season total of 37. Board wisely replaced Zamora with Pavel Pogrebnyak which seems to be a great piece of business, since Russian has scored five goals in his four outings.

Swans are euphoric after massive home win against spoiled millionaires, but as Fulham they also show much better displays at home. Away they’ve noticed only three wins out of 14 matches (eight defeats) and absence of suspended Nathan Dyer will be a serious blow for their counters and attacking threats. They were defeated in last four visits to Craven Cottage, conceding a total of 14 goals.

It’s always a danger to bet when play two teams from the middle (and probably nothing to play for), but today think I have valid reasons for backing Fulham.

Bet: Fulham -0.75
Odd: 2.09 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 8/10

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Millwall - Southampton

Millwall are only six points far from relegation line, but considering the strength of teams below I am pretty sure their status is not in danger. However, their recent home results are horrible with five defeats and a draw out of six. Millwall have the worst record in the division against any of the current top-half sides and huge blow is absence of Liam Trotter due to injury.

The Saints are still on the top and I am of belief they’ll just stay there. Besides Reading, Southampton are side in the best shape, undefeated in last nine and conceded only three goals in those. They’re league top scorers (total of 65 goals) and Nigel Adkins will have a fully fit squad today.

Any visit to the Den is certainly not a walk through the park, but obvious difference in quality and recent results should provide a nice away win.

Bet: Southampton -0.5
Odd: 2.12 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 7/10
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