Premier League and Championship betting, 17 March

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Fulham - Swansea

Fulham are in a pretty good shape, before stoppage time defeat at Birmingham they had three consecutive wins in league. At home they have four league wins out of last five (six out of eight) and at Cottage they have scored 29 of their season total of 37. Board wisely replaced Zamora with Pavel Pogrebnyak which seems to be a great piece of business, since Russian has scored five goals in his four outings.

Swans are euphoric after massive home win against spoiled millionaires, but as Fulham they also show much better displays at home. Away they’ve noticed only three wins out of 14 matches (eight defeats) and absence of suspended Nathan Dyer will be a serious blow for their counters and attacking threats. They were defeated in last four visits to Craven Cottage, conceding a total of 14 goals.

It’s always a danger to bet when play two teams from the middle (and probably nothing to play for), but today think I have valid reasons for backing Fulham.

Bet: Fulham -0.75
Odd: 2.09 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 8/10

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Millwall - Southampton

Millwall are only six points far from relegation line, but considering the strength of teams below I am pretty sure their status is not in danger. However, their recent home results are horrible with five defeats and a draw out of six. Millwall have the worst record in the division against any of the current top-half sides and huge blow is absence of Liam Trotter due to injury.

The Saints are still on the top and I am of belief they’ll just stay there. Besides Reading, Southampton are side in the best shape, undefeated in last nine and conceded only three goals in those. They’re league top scorers (total of 65 goals) and Nigel Adkins will have a fully fit squad today.

Any visit to the Den is certainly not a walk through the park, but obvious difference in quality and recent results should provide a nice away win.

Bet: Southampton -0.5
Odd: 2.12 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 7/10
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Manchester United - West Ham

United drew at Craven Cottage when already noted 3 points. Two times lead, wasted penalty and 88th minute equalizer made Fergie raging after the game. Main target was defense line that should reacted much better before both goals. Additional thing that makes him nervous is Chelsea and their 12 goals in just 2 games. West Ham game should be a response to those who don’t believe. Rooney is in the team after a stomach bug and he’ll try to back on the track after 13 games without a goal. This is a nice opportunity for raising self confidence. Paul Scholes will probably be rested and replaced with Michael Carrick. United have won 11 of their last 12 league matches at Old Trafford and scored 3.25 goals per game in average. Against West Ham won their last five matches and scored 14 goals in those.

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The Hammers started the campaign in a manner that should announce another bleak season. Two defeats and 6 goals conceded. And while opening loss vs. Villa wasn’t so unexpected, real shock came in the second game with 1-3 home defeat vs. Bolton (side that is well known with defending approach to away games). Team doesn’t look dangerous, midfielders can’t cope and in defense anarchy rules. Considering the funds that have been invested in the squad, despite part of that was hardly wasted (can’t not to think about Diamanti), management probably expects more than a fight for avoiding relegation and Grant could be the first manager in Premier to face exit door. Skipper and main man at the back line, Matthew Upson, should return to the side. West Ham are without an away win in the league since the first day of last season.

 

Situation guarantees a deadly serious approach from United. Proud is damaged, Chelsea are on the top and no European games for a while. I predict a high scoring victory.

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Bet: Man Utd -2ah 
Odd: 1.79 Canbet
Stake: 9/10
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One more probably.
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Man Utd 3-0 Fulham

Wayne Rooney scored twice as Manchester United beat Fulham to move two points clear at the top of the Premier League.
Rooney, who saw a long-range strike saved in the opening 45 minutes, slotted home from 12 yards after just 30 seconds of the second half. 
Mark Schwarzer denied Darren Fletcher but Rooney sealed the points with a low strike across goal after superb approach work from Dimitar Berbatov. 
A teasing cross from Ji-Sung Park was then headed home by Berbatov. 
Fulham might have defeated United 3-0 at home in December but Roy Hodgson's team had precious few sights of goal at Old Trafford - and the result ensured their miserable run away from Craven Cottage in the Premier League continued. 
Fulham's last league away win was at struggling Portsmouth on the opening day of the season - but with a Europa League match against Juventus and an FA Cup quarter-final looming, their priorities currently lie elsewhere. 
United's defeat at Craven Cottage remains their heaviest of the season but in the return contest Sir Alex Ferguson's team dominated territory and possession - and created the vast majority of the game's decent chances.
Berbatov was selected to start alongside the in-form Rooney and linked play effectively as United repeatedly carved open their opponents backline as they increased the pressure on Arsenal and Chelsea, although Carlo Ancelotti's team have a game in hand.

www.bbc.co.uk

Shakhtar - Fulham

Ukrainians are the previous year winners and surely one of the main candidates to win the competition again. In the first game at Craven Cottage, they were dominant, had a safe draw before Zamora struck an amazing hit for 1-2. At home, Shakhtar are always favorites, play attacking, have a pitch with extremely short grass that allow them a short pass play and their home record looks scary. In domain league, they have all 8 home wins with 26 goals scored and just four conceded. In Europe, they exited CL qualification after knocking out from Romanians – Timisoara (on away goals, two draws) and after that smashed Sivasspor (2-0), Partizan (4-1), Toulouse (4-0) and in last group game where progress were assured drew vs. Club Brugge 0-0. Main problem for Shakhtar could be a league break in Ukraine, as they played last competitive game 12.12., but in the same round last year they eliminated another Premier League side Tottenham (2-0 at home, 1-1 away). Boss Mircea Lucescu has two concerns, defender Razvan Rat and striker Luiz Adriano are both doubtful. 

Fulham traveled to Ukraine without a pressure as their status in domain league is safe. Boss Roy Hodgson doesn’t have too big squad to rotate players and I expect their best eleven from the start. Cottagers are typical home side and have a lots of problems on the road, in Premier League and in Europe as well. In Europa League, they managed just one away win Basel (3-2). Hodgson stated he has no intention of playing for a draw, but attacking formation against Shakhtar on the road could be only a death penalty. I expect their cautious start with not too much risk. Their advantage could be set-pieces and individual efforts of Damien Duff or excellent Bobby Zamora. However, Fulham will be without on-loan defender Nicky Shorey who is ineligible for the match, while full-back Paul Konchesky is still injured. 

Hosts are favorites here. They have top quality team, proved ambitions, their pitch and have much more experience of playing European competitions. Fulham have their hidden jokers, but this would be a tough test for any of top clubs in Europe and I simply don’t think they can cope with it. Also, freezing temperature (-4c is expected tonight in Donetsk, in London +6) and a cold wind won’t help. Best bet would be -1 ah, the alternative is -1.5.

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Another great night

Tottenham 4 - 0 Bolton

Roman Pavlyuchenko continued his resurgence to fire Tottenham into the FA Cup quarter-finals as Bolton proved the architects of their own undoing.
Pavlyuchenko tucked in the opener for Spurs from Luka Modric's flicked pass. 
Jussi Jaaskelainen was at fault for the first of two Bolton own goals, the ball deflecting in off his leg as he failed to deal with a Wilson Palacios centre. 
Gareth Bale's cross later went in off Andrew O'Brien before Pavlyuchenko drilled in a Danny Rose centre late on. 
For the oft-overlooked Pavlyuchenko, who made a strong case for his inclusion by scoring twice following his late introduction in Tottenham's weekend victory at Wigan, the evening added further lustre to an impressive record in the domestic cups. 
Pavlyuchenko has played second fiddle to Jermain Defoe and Peter Crouch this season, but on a night when Tottenham rarely needed to be at their flowing best, the Russian's second brace in three days brought his cup tally to 13 goals in 13 matches. 
With his side locked in a Premier League relegation battle, there is little that the Bolton manager Owen Coyle would not give for that level of return just now.
Tottenham manager Harry Redknapp:
"It's great to see Pavlyuchenko score four gopals in two games, he's in great form and let's hope he can keep that up to the end of the season. 
"It's difficult for Bolton, because Owen has obviously got the league on his mind, but things are going well for us. 
"It will be a difficult game at Craven Cottage, but we can only focus on the next game, and that's Everton in the league.
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WBA. 2 - 3 Reading

1-0 R. Koren  6.min.
1-1 J. Kebe  9.min.
2-1 R. Koren  47.min.
2-2 B. Howard  90.min.
2-3 G. Sigurdsson  95.min.
www.bbc.co.uk

Fulham 1-2 Blackburn Rovers

Rovers picked up their biggest three points of the season as they came from behind to beat Fulham 2-1 at Craven Cottage.
The home side were quick out of the traps, taking the lead after just two minutes when Clint Dempsey took advantage of some hesitant defending.
Sam Allardyce's side were rocking in the opening period, but slowly took control, Stephen Warnock being terribly unlucky to see his curled effort come off the inside of the post and away to safety.
But in the second half a change of formation brought about a change of luck. El-Hadji Diouf poked home from close-range to score his first goal for the club since his move from Sunderland in January to bring the two sides level.Warnock, who could have had a hat-trick saw two goalbound shots brilliantly saved by Mark Schwarzer, but the Fulham 'keeper had no answer to Jason Roberts' strike five minutes time which saw Rovers claim a huge three points which moves them up to 15th in the table.

Before the game Sam Allardyce made three changes. There was a surprise return to the starting line-up for goalkeeper Paul Robinson. The England international having recovered from the shoulder injury that forced him to miss the previous game. After serving his one-match ban Morten Gamst Pedersen returned to the starting eleven in place of the injured Roque Santa Cruz, whilst other injury victim Vince Grella was replaced by Tugay.

www.rovers.co.uk