USA - Brazil Confederations Cup 2009 - Final

USA came on this competition as clear outsiders. Two first games (Italy 1-3 and Brazil 0-3) just confirmed the dark predictions. But in the third game against Egypt (who had defeated Azzurri and lost narrowly to Brazil), Americans played a perfect game. Bob Bradley changed defensive 5-4-1 formation into 4-4-2. It resulted with three goals, by Davies, Michael Bradley and Dempsey, for a convincing 3-0 win. Brazil beat Italy by the same scoreline and USA became the first team in Confederations Cup history who qualify from the group stage with three points and a negative goal difference. Then they shocked Spain making the greatest win in their history. Although defending the entire game, USA used two big mistakes in opposite’s defence and brake Spain’s 15 games winning streak. Now, they’re just one step far from the trophy, but need one more miracle. Bob Bradley has to make one change, midfielder Michael Bradley is suspended after became the third American to be sent off during this tournament.

The defending champions are contesting their fourth Confederations Cup final. After a debatable start on the bench of national team, Carlos Dunga has instilled a level of discipline and tactic that, so far, give the tremendous effect. World Cup 2010 qualification is almost secured and in this Confederations Cup campaign they have looked extremely comfortable. They’re unbeaten in 15 games (eleven wins and four draws), seven wins in a row and kept 11 clean sheets during those 15 games. After the first chaotic game, against the Pharaons (4-3 win), Dunga consolidated the squad and they noticed three victories. Two convincing 3-0 wins (USA and Italy) and had some problems only in the semi-final (1-0 at the end). South Africa were defending the whole game and Brazil, although dominating, didn’t have the clue. Till two minutes before the end when Danny Alves scored from a free-kick and booked the ticket for the final. Dunga has no injury concerns, but several players looked tired in the semi-final after six games in 20 days. Mentioned Alves will probably substitute Maicon.

Bob Bradley will back 5-4-1 formation (attacking would be a suicidal mission) and will face Brazil with tough defence. Dunga’s lads are exhausted and they’ll have hard job to score. I don’t expect an open game and think the winner will be solved in the second half. My bet is a draw at the halftime. Bet365 offers 2.63, Bwin 2.40.

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Egypt - USA

This is the last game in the group. The propositions say Egyptians are definitely through if they better Italy's result. Should the Azzurri win, the Egyptians can overtake them if they beat the USA by a bigger margin. Before the start of competition, Egypt was rated as a third selection in the group, but after two games played they deserve a title of biggest surprise. In the first game, they were equal against World Champions-Brazil, loosing the game in the last moments (from controversial penalty kick). Players’ confidence raised rapidly and that was more than obvious in the second game, where Pharaons made a historic victory over Italy. They played tactically perfect and score from the only good opportunity. But, while the lads were beating Italy, five of the players were the victims of burglary, with thieves breaking into their hotel rooms in Johannesburg. That has done little to dampen the Pharaohs' spirits, with the squad confident they can record a convincing win against the USA. Bad news is Egypt could be without striker Mohamed Zidan after he picked up a hamstring injury in the win against Italy. The Pharaohs are short of experienced strikers, with Amr Zaki injured before the tournament began and Mido out of favour with coach Hassan Shehata.

Oposite from Egypt, before the start of Confederations Cup USA was declared as the group outsider. And in the first two games they proved that status. The only good thing was the first half in the opening game against Italy. They scored, even with a player less and were equal on the pitch. But, till the game end conceded three times. Second game didn’t bring anything good. Another three hits, from Brazil (with mixed starting eleven) this time, and another red card. The USA squad records an obvious improvement in last couple of years, but it seems they’re still far from the best world teams. Even at competition such as Confederations Cup. The players are certainly disappointed with two convincing defeats and the question is will they be able to recover mentally for the Pharaons. However, USA is not without the chance for progress. They have to win by at least three goals and Italy to lose. Ricardo Clark is back after a ban but Sacha Klejstan is suspended. Watford's Jay DeMerit may again deputise for Carlos Bocanegra if the former Fulham defender fails to recover from a hamstring problem.

After two excellent games, Egyptians proved their confidence wasn’t uncovered. Win over Italy and Brazil game put them in the position of big favorites against USA and missings in attacking lines won’t change it too much. Americans are discouraged after two defeats and six goals conceded. In the last game will play “for the fans” and I can’t see any different epilogue, than Egypt’s victory.Pinnacle offers 1.81. Home win and little gamble on x-1, again.

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