Serbia – Estonia, why it doesn't worth at 1.15

Well, I wouldn’t write too much about reasons for us. Big gap in quality and home soil. That should be more than enough for Estonians.

Against…  First, Serbia have new national team coach, Vladimir Petrovic, last year Crvena Zvezda’s. Under him, we (Zvezda) were playing the ugliest football that I (we) have ever seen. He invited formation with 3 defensive midfielders all together in the team! Defensive football with main target not to concede. More shocking,  that was from one of two best clubs in the country who used to play against very defensive sides.  I’m really afraid he’ll try the same in national team. He announced we’ll play with just one striker, Zigic, who is out of Birmingham team and out of shape. Wingers, Krasic (in a great shape at Juve) and Jovanovic (same as Zigic), and again 3 central midfielders. Stankovic is sure, for other 2 spots we have 3 players, Kacar, Kuzmanovic and Ninkovic. None of them is natural attacking midfielder (Kacar can play it though). For me, it looks like too much caution for Estonia that could lead to problems (we can’t score and become nervous, problems). Ex coach, Radomir Antic, announced yesterday he’ll suit Serbian football association for 2 mill euros for cancelling his contract. Very nice timing from him.

Goalkeeper Stojkovic, before few seasons Crvena Zvezda’s captain, made a shocking move and signed for big rivals – Partizan. Death threats to him are common things these days in Serbia. His appearance will certainly split the crowds which usually has bad impact on all players. Moving the game on Partizan’s stadium helps, however.

I would never bet against my own team and hope I’m wrong, but if I’m a foreigner I’d see X2 @ 5.00 (Bwin) as a nice little gamble. Under at 2.63 (888sport) also looks tempting and maybe I’ll take it hoping for 1-0, 2-0 win.

Some English pick(s) will come tonight or tomorrow.

Make e-mail subscription and get my picks directly in the mail box.

Italy 0-0 Serbia

Five-time European Under-21 champions Italy had to settle for a point from their Group A curtain-raiser against Serbia in Helsingborg.

Close contest
Italy's first-half ascendancy gave way to a much-improved Serbian showing after the break as a crowd of 7,158 was treated to an always engaging tussle between two ambitious sides. Gojko Kačar's scissor-kick against the upright was the closest either team came to a breakthrough.

Three up front
The game had begun openly and the first corner, won by Italy captain Marco Motta, produced a free header wasted by Paolo De Ceglie. However, the first notable chance fell to Serbia as Nemanja Matić matched his persistence down the left with a penetrative cross that Zoran Tošić met inside the Italy area, sending his first-time strike narrowly off target. The Azzurrini's response was a curling effort from outside the box from the diminutive Sebastian Giovinco – forming a front three alongside Robert Acquafresca and Mario Balotelli – which Željko Brkić tipped over. More sighs or relief followed from the sizeable Serbian contingent inside Helsinborgs IF's Olympia as Acquafresca headed wide.

Ebb and flow
Serbia coach Slobodan Krcmarević chose a tactical template similar to Casiraghi insofar as three men shared the attacking duties. Tošić and Miralem Sulejmani – both wide players by trade – were supported by the versatile Kačar, a willing runner and raider. After half an hour Sulejmani scooped through a ball which Tošić was just beaten to by Italy keeper Andrea Consigli. His opposite number, Brkić, was similarly stretched by a firm Balotelli free-kick.

Revenge mission
The pre-match talk had been of an Italian revenge mission after Serbia's opening-day victory over the Azzurrini in the 2007 finals. Increasingly, as half-time approached, that goal looked within reach. Giovinco's cross-cum-shot had Brkić back-pedalling. Salvatore Bocchetti spurned a shooting opportunity; Balotelli did not, rifling the ball against Brkić's body. Yet the interval clean sheet appeared to vindicate Krcmarević's decision to give Jagoš Vuković his competitive debut at centre-back.

Clean through
With Tošić sparking, Serbia began the second half as if trying to restore balance to a shot count heavily favouring the Italians. Soon another notch for Casiraghi's men, though, as Acquafresca nodded a Giovinco set-piece into Brkić's arms. There seemed little between the teams, although a gap did emerge in the Serbia defence when Giovinco sprang the offside trap from Luca Cigarini's pass. Perhaps unaware of time and space, the Juventus talent lifted the ball tamely at Brkić.

Off the woodwork
At the other end the clever passing exchanges between Serbia's attacking triumvirate – often prompted by the elegant left-footed midfielder Matić – were gaining in fluidity and frequency. Towards the 75-minute mark, Nenad Tomović forced a desperate save from Consigli after Nemanja Pejčinović had touched on a Tošić corner. Still more pressure ensued: Kačar's acrobatic strike rattling Italy's right post, before a Tošić free-kick whistled past the other. The resulting deadlock left both countries two points behind the day's winners, hosts Sweden, who beat Belarus 5-1.
www.uefa.com