England - Switzerland

England’s problem is this game comes after a long and hard season for the players. Capello will have to find a way to motivate them. Also, there won’t be Rooney (Defoe, Carroll and Gerrard). On the other hand, England is topping the table just by goal difference. Win today should be out of question.

Swiss are 6 points behind, they desperately need a win to join a battle for top two places but I’m sure they’ll be absolutely satisfied with a point today. However, they have scoring problems on their trips and alongside with hard defending that Ottmar Hitzfeld is forcing, their last 6 games produced zero or one goal. Attacking duo, Frei (ex skipper) - Streller, was under the media fire after last game (0-0 Bulgaria) and both retired! I think Swiss target will be 0-0 scoreline.

My first idea was England -1, I’m pretty sure they’ll win. But with 2 goals margin? This should be a better call. Hosts will dominate in possession and most of the time ball will be on Swiss half, around penalty area. I’m going on corners market and 1st half since the English pressure on goal should be bigger.

Bet: number of corners 1st half, England -2 (ah)
Odd: 2.04 188bet
Stake: 7/10
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Serbia – Estonia, why it doesn't worth at 1.15

Well, I wouldn’t write too much about reasons for us. Big gap in quality and home soil. That should be more than enough for Estonians.

Against…  First, Serbia have new national team coach, Vladimir Petrovic, last year Crvena Zvezda’s. Under him, we (Zvezda) were playing the ugliest football that I (we) have ever seen. He invited formation with 3 defensive midfielders all together in the team! Defensive football with main target not to concede. More shocking,  that was from one of two best clubs in the country who used to play against very defensive sides.  I’m really afraid he’ll try the same in national team. He announced we’ll play with just one striker, Zigic, who is out of Birmingham team and out of shape. Wingers, Krasic (in a great shape at Juve) and Jovanovic (same as Zigic), and again 3 central midfielders. Stankovic is sure, for other 2 spots we have 3 players, Kacar, Kuzmanovic and Ninkovic. None of them is natural attacking midfielder (Kacar can play it though). For me, it looks like too much caution for Estonia that could lead to problems (we can’t score and become nervous, problems). Ex coach, Radomir Antic, announced yesterday he’ll suit Serbian football association for 2 mill euros for cancelling his contract. Very nice timing from him.

Goalkeeper Stojkovic, before few seasons Crvena Zvezda’s captain, made a shocking move and signed for big rivals – Partizan. Death threats to him are common things these days in Serbia. His appearance will certainly split the crowds which usually has bad impact on all players. Moving the game on Partizan’s stadium helps, however.

I would never bet against my own team and hope I’m wrong, but if I’m a foreigner I’d see X2 @ 5.00 (Bwin) as a nice little gamble. Under at 2.63 (888sport) also looks tempting and maybe I’ll take it hoping for 1-0, 2-0 win.

Some English pick(s) will come tonight or tomorrow.

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Slovenia - Northern Ireland

Slovenia is a decent side. They proved themselves in previous qualifications and in South Africa. Some talented players (Novakovic, Dedic, Koren…), but personally I’m well surprised with their tactical discipline during the game. Their raiting has raised from 79^th Fifa place to 19^th. In last five home games, they won 4 (N.Zealand, Qatar, Russia and San Marino) and drew one (Czech Republic). Only absentee is defender Marko Suler.

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Ireland made few very good campaigns, but always stayed short eventually. They were playing friendlies lately, lost all 5 and didn’t score in last 7! However, they made 2 decent results and two draws against Czech 0-0 and Poland 1-1. In group with Italy, Serbia, Estonia, Slovenia and Faroe Islands, I rate them as 4^th and really can’t see N.Ireland progressing. No significant missings.

 

Slovenia plays really well in Maribor and considering the group rivals (Italy and Serbia) and the fact next game is in Belgrade, this one they have to win. 2-0 correct score.

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Bet: Slovenia -1ah  
Odd: 2.07  Pinnacle
Stake: 7/10
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WC 2010 - 17.06.

Post will be updated through the day.

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Argentina - Korea, Argentina -1ah @ 2.03 (188 bet)  4-1 WON

 

I still think Argentina’s national team will be a victim of one El Pibe’s tactical mistake. Lack of defenders, for example, could work well against average teams. Problem is every top class and hard working side will punish it, Spain, Brazil, Germany… But, Korea… No, I don’t think so. Difference in quality is huge. Korea will try to threat from counter attacks, they’re fast and Samuel (for example) could have some problems, but it’s nothing in compare with problems of Korea’s defenders. No question for me, here. Maradona will rest Veron and send Maxi Rodriguez on the pitch.

 

Greece - Nigeria, Nigeria @ 2.22 (Pinnacle)  2-1 LOST

 

Greece wasn’t bad against Korea, they were terrible, disaster, worst thing in WC so far. They play very slow and predictable. Main players are old and their tactic thankfully to which they won EURO, (fortunately) doesn’t work any more. My sympathies are always on the side of Greece and Greek people, but with a play like this they don’t have a chance against any side in SA (except against the hosts, maybe).

Nigeria actually played better than anybody expected. Goalie saved them several times against Argies, but they didn’t look bad, passing was good, tactical positioning as well. They’re physically stronger and differently from Greek, like climate conditions in SA. Another good thing for them is Greeks have to play less defensive as they’ll face Argentina in the last round. Martins is expected for Nigeria from the start.

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UPDATE:

France - Mexico, France @ 2.29 (Canbet)  2-0 LOST

 

Because the way how they qualified, I would like to see French lads on the plane as soon as possible. Against Uruguay, they played a boring draw which doesn’t promise a great achievement. Also, war in the dressing room (and on the pitch!) between two stubborn sides doesn’t help. As well as the news Domenech is ex coach (will be in charge till the end of WC). However, one glance on the starting eleven makes me feel scary. Defeat would send them home. Referee is Al Ghamdi, lad from S.Arabia and I expect some “mistakes” in favor to France and Platini.

Mexico’s games are nice to watch. Good technique, passing and offensive style of play, some very talented players. Unfortunately, playing like that they’re not competitive on this level and simply look to weak physically.

I’m going to back France.

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P.S.: Yesterday was the biggest attendance on the blog this year! Thanks for visiting, lads!

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