Cardiff City - Derby County (tuesday)

After very promising season start that announced a battle for promotion, Cardiff have now lost four of their last five Championship matches and have dropped out of the top six. All started with underestimation of Doncaster (0-2 on the road), then Newcastle (0-1 home), QPR (0-2 home) and last one vs. Sheff.Wed. (1-3 away). It’s symptomatic they conceded most of those goals in the opening period of the game, or the second half. Manager Dave Jones talks about inconsistency, more likely it’s lack of confidence. At last round they improved the performance, two goals for Cardiff were disallowed (public opinion is one was clear), big defensive errors, two goals at the start of both periods and one more defeat that caused alarms started ringing at City Stadium. So, if they want to keep their dream about promotion, have to wake up and stop the losing streak. Better opponent for that they probably couldn’t wish. Beside long time injured Ross McCormack and Kelvin Etuhu, boss Jones can not count on midfielder Joe Ledley who got a red card at Sheffield and unfit right-back Kevin McNaughton. Skipper Stephen McPhail returns in the squad.

Like the hosts, Derby also had a bad run of results with four consecutive defeats (Nottingham Forest, Sheffield United, Barnsley and Crystal Palace). Manager Nigel Clough is stubborn with his 5-4-1 formation that still hasn’t been well accepted from the players. Two started wins against clubs from the bottom side of the table (Peterborough and Plymouth) gave some hope for a bright future, but mentioned bad run brought the push the problems on the surface. In the previous round, they finally noticed all three points against Bristol City (1-0). Visitors from Bristol were at least equal 55 minutes, then defender Jamie McCombe got two yellow cards for two minutes. Rams started to dominate and thankfully to Gary Teale’s late strike noticed a win. However, team is consisted of mediocre players who shouldn’t be capable to achieve anything more than middle of the table. And some experienced players like Lee Hendrie and Paul Dickov haven’t brought anything positive. The Rams can get something from the games against bottom clubs, or sometimes to surprise “middle class”, but I doubt they can cause serious problems to the top Championship clubs (like raging Cardiff). New on-loan signing, Swedish defender Fredrik Stoor, will probably make his debut.

This is not a “to be or not to be” game for the hosts, but another failure would seriously shake their title ambitions. Following their statements to the press, it seems they’re all conscious of the situation and I expect the well response and convincing win. Pinnacle offer 1.92. Home win and handicap as a gamble.

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Reading - Sheffield United

After tragically ended previous season, where first missed to win in last round against Birmingham at home and reach direct promotion, then lost in semi-final of play-off against Burnley, Royals came in this season with different squad. First Steve Copell lost his job, then some very important players like Kevin Doyle, Michael Duberry, Graeme Murty, Marcus Hahnemann, Leroy Lita, Stephen Hunt and more recently Andre Bikey left the club. Seven players. New boss is very talented Brendan Rodgers (ex Watford), but team lost the quality and despite the same ambitions as usual, mid-table finish is more realistic. After three rounds, Reading still don’t have a win, in fact they still haven’t scored. Two goalless draws (Nottingham Forest at home and Swansea City away) and defeat against Newcastle 0-3 on the road. Reading are waiting on the fitness of winger Jimmy Kebe, while Marek Matejovsky is still not considered match fit after his own recent groin injury.

United as Reading have the highest ambitions, but the difference is they have quality for that. The Blades also lost against Burnley in clash for Premier, but squad remained almost the same. It means, iron defense and very strong midfield. The only problem is attacking line. Team lost excellent striker James Beattie and spent 3 mill.pounds for his replacement Ched Evans. They had excellent away record last season with just five defeats from 23 games and only 17 goals conceded (Championship record). United are likely to be without midfielder Brian Howard, who has gone down with tonsillitis. But fellow midfielder Lee Hendrie is available once again after serving a four-match ban.

Oppositely from bookies, I think Blades are slight favorites here and see value in these odds. But, also wouldn’t exclude a possibility of another draw and instead clear away win, suggest 0.25 (1.77) handicap on United, or simply DNB (2.05).

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