Premier League and Championship betting, 24 March

Norwich City - Wolverhampton
Norwich are in a sort of downtrend with three defeats and one draw out of last four in the league. However, their season looks absolutely fine (their last three seasons, actually) and they still have a chance to finish in the top-half (8th Swans have just three points more). Good news is Anthony Pilkington is back.
Wolves’ board probably had different plans with sacking McCarthy, but after they didn’t attract any serious name Terry Connor was a forced solution. In his four games in charge, Wolves have conceded 14 goals and looked pretty clueless in front (scored 2). Their confidence is certainly not a sky high, they remind me on Pompey few seasons ago and I wouldn’t be surprised if their free fall continues and just stay at the bottom.

Bet: Norwich -0.75

Odd: 2.06 (Ladbrokes)
Stake: 7/10

Reading - Blackpool
Reading noticed a shocking midweek defeat at the hands of Posh, but at Madejski have five consecutive wins and nine out of last ten with goal diff. 18-4! They will miss striker, Jason Roberts (B’pool will miss Roman Bednar).
The Seasiders have only one win out of last five in the league and lost on their last two trips against not so impressive sides - Derby and Peterborough.
Backing a winning horse, here.

Bet: Reading
Odd: 1.95 (888sport)
Stake: 8/10

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Championship betting, Leicester City - Reading

The Foxes have a great squad for Championship and have every right to be called league favourite for a title. First home game should be building up on the first round win at Coventry. Right-back Lee Peltier is out with an injury, but will be replaced with another top signing - John Pantsil.

As I wrote, Reading will be hardly the same team from previous season. Shane Long has been sold (6 mill) to WBA, before him Matt Mills to Leicester. No adequate replacements so far, even Brian McDermott was moaning to the press. They also have some missing players. Shaun Cummings, Marcus Williams and Simon Church are injured, Jay Tabb is suspended.

I fancy home side to take it, they shouldn’t be losing too many points at home this season. Home win.

Bet: Leicester -0.5
Odd: 1.93 188bet
Stake: 6/10 
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Under-21 betting

Belarus U21 - Iceland U21

This is the first game of European championship for players under 21 age. Belarus had decent results in qualifying group (but wouldn't have come here without it, anyway), but real shock they presented in a play-off game against Italy. First defeat 0-2 away, then sensational 3-0 home win. 

Iceland is tipped to be the biggest surprise on the tournament. They have nine players from A team, including excellent Gylfi Sigurdsson (ex Reading, today Hoffenheim). They made some very impressive results lately, defeating Germany in group 4-1 at home and in last match (friendly) a win over England 2-1 (away).

In the first game, a draw is always possible whichever teams play. So, I’m taking -0.25 (in case of a draw, half stake is back). C’mon Iceland! 

Bet: Iceland -0.25
Odd: 1.98 188bet
Stake: 7/10
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Championship final, 5.50 gamble

Reading  - Swansea

I have same feeling for Reading, as I had for Posh. At the first glance two evenly matched sides, but formal hosts seem to have more tactical discipline and for me look better under the pressure. If we expect a nervy game, some advantage would go to them. Their away record shouldn’t be overlooked as well. Reading are without a defeat in league in last nine trips, in last four haven’t conceded (two of those were Leeds and Cardiff re-match). Swans defeated Millwall and made a heroic 10 men performance vs. Forest, but before that automatic promotion were lost on their away games. Two key men in my opinion are Shane Long (of course) and Nathan Dyer (very annoying lad when you bet against Swans). Five of last seven finals ended with 1-0. Shane Long have had a brilliant season, his top performance in the most important game should natural. He to score and Reading to win 1-0 is tasty 29.00. Second scoring option is Ian Harte (same bet for him is 67.00 at Victor Chandler). He already played Champions League semi, he’ll be calm and have scored 10 goals in 30 games for Reading!

After all no serious bet, it is 90mill game (they must be joking!) and it’s more feeling than the facts. Gamble for me would be Shane Long to score and Reading to win @ 5.50 (Paddy Power).

Sorry for late posting. Good luck to all and enjoy the game.

Gamble: Long to score and Reading to win
Odd: 5.50 Paddy Power 
Stake: 1/10
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Play-off betting, Cardiff - Reading

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Like the prospect of goals here and especially odds on it. Both sides are attacking minded (Cardiff at home) and those are fifth and third attacks in Championship. Cardiff’s style is different when they play at home which usually makes them more vulnerable at the back. Their matches against top scoring sides produced some goals, Norwich 3-1, Leeds 2-1, Reading 2-2 and Watford 3-1. Think Reading is more than able to hurt the hosts and I doubt that Dave Jones will change the style and set a cautious approach relying on his defence line. Counter attacks, Shane Long, Ian Harte free kicks, I’m sure Reading will be very dangerous. Additionally, Cardiff at home and Reading away have scored in 18 of their 23 games during the season. Also, only one game at Cardiff City Stadium ended with goalless draw.

Maybe not enough reasons, but as I said odd definitely worth a try. I will take over 2.25, with two goals half stake is back.

I’m refusing any thought to be involved in a City’s game tonight.

Bet: Over 2.25
Odd: 1.96 188bet
Stake: 8/10 
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Leeds - Reading

A big pressure on Simon Grayson’s side. They have won just once of last six games, but still occupying the 6th spot. They’re top league scorers (78 goals on total of 42 games and 46 on 21 at home), they have scored on 13 of last 14 home games and 9 of last 11 at Elland Road went in over. This is do or die game for Leeds, another failure would see them below the line. Key defender and skipper, Richard Naylor, could make his first start since October. But, key question is will Luciano Becchio be in the line up. Considering odds movement (raising the prices on home side and goals), he’s out.

Visitors are the absolute hit. Twelve league games without defeat, with eight consecutive wins! Differently from the hosts they won’t feel any pressure since the play-off spot is safe (nine points above the line), but they could see a chance for a direct promotion. They are the third league scorers in total (73 goals on 42 games) and second best on the road (34 goals on 21 games) scored in each of last 13 league games, in nine of those scored twice or more. Striker Noel Hunt is in doubt.

This is the game of great importance, especially for Leeds. Both sides are attacking minded and whoever concedes first won’t give up. I have no clue about the winner, but goals should be a pure logic.

Bet: Over 2.75
Odd: 2.03 Canbet
Stake: 8/10
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Reading - Watford

Before couple of weeks, Reading looked like a serious play-off contender. But the winless run of five games (3D-2L) moved them down to 12th place. However, I have impression their performances are a quite better than last results. In the previous round they conceded a late equalizer at Sheffield, before that lost in additional time at Norwich, then unlucky lost vs. 10 men QPR and before that again conceded an injury time goal at Cardiff for a draw. Midfielder Karacan is still serving a ban, defender Pearce is injured, but Mikele Leigertwood is back after served his three-game suspension.

Watford are also winless in last five (six including Cup). Two noticed points came from games against bottom sides Preston and Palace and they conceded five goals in last two games (both at home). Differently from Reading, I can’t see any possible improvement and would predict their slump will continue. Defender Lloyd Doyley will face a late fitness test, striker Buckley is out.

I think it’s a matter of time when Reading will start to climb on table again and sinking Watford should be a nice chance for the recovering of play-off hopes. Home win.

Bet: Reading -0.5
Odd: 1.85 (Gamebookers)
Stake: 8/10
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More to follow...
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Man Utd - Newcastle

Personally, I can’t see any value in the offered odds. It’s the opening game and I wouldn’t take Community shield (or friendlies) result too serious. And to be honest, I have no idea what to expect from Newcastle this season. They should avoid relegation, but their capabilities are unknown for me. United are slow starters, same manager through the years and same pattern. They won just one of previous 3 opening games (Birmingham last year, 1-0 at home), other 2 finished with a draws (2008.- Newcastle 1-1 and 2007.- Reading 0-0). So, three unders. Taking some high handicap (-1.75 valued 1.91, or over 2.5 at 1.60) would be like a coin flip. Doesn’t worth for me. NO BET.

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Saturday's results

Considering shocks yesterday, I should be satisfied these games. However, I could buy a house from a money that Scunthorpe have burnt in past 2 years.

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Reading - Scunthorpe 1-2  LOST

Sheffield Wednesday - Dag & Red 2-0 WON

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Statistics:

Yield: +2%

Profit: +0.32

See all bets

Reading - Scunthorpe

Reading have been significantly improving under Brian McDermott (in charge since last December). In pre-season, they defeated Wolves 2-1 and S’ton on the road 4-2 and raised self confidence. Squad’s quality should guarantee a fight for a play-off. Federici is, in my opinion, best goalie in the second tier. Sigurdsson scored a bunch (think 17) from midfield role, Simon Church and Shane Long have a future in Premier as well as few more players. McDermott worries about the fitness of some players. Ingimarsson, Kebe and Noel Hunt should be fit, Chris Armstrong is out.

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Scunny’s survival from previous season was a miracle, not surprise. But, problem is they lost attacking duo Paul Hayes (went to Preston) and their talisman Gary Hooper (Celtic) who were keeping them over the line. There’s still enough time to hire some players, but at this moment they’re contender number one to relegate. Their hope, as always, will be home turf Glanford Park. Last season, they collected only 15 points on the road of 23 games (16 defeats)! Skipper and right back Cliffe Byrne will probably miss this one, along with new loan signing Nolan.

 

Reading probably couldn’t wish a better rival for the season opener. Scunny will probably try to defend with all players waiting for set-pieces (as they were doing whole last season), but when they concede first the game will be over. I see a few goals margin.

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Bet: Reading -1ah

Stake: 8/10

Odd: 1.93 Pinnacle

Another great night

Tottenham 4 - 0 Bolton

Roman Pavlyuchenko continued his resurgence to fire Tottenham into the FA Cup quarter-finals as Bolton proved the architects of their own undoing.
Pavlyuchenko tucked in the opener for Spurs from Luka Modric's flicked pass. 
Jussi Jaaskelainen was at fault for the first of two Bolton own goals, the ball deflecting in off his leg as he failed to deal with a Wilson Palacios centre. 
Gareth Bale's cross later went in off Andrew O'Brien before Pavlyuchenko drilled in a Danny Rose centre late on. 
For the oft-overlooked Pavlyuchenko, who made a strong case for his inclusion by scoring twice following his late introduction in Tottenham's weekend victory at Wigan, the evening added further lustre to an impressive record in the domestic cups. 
Pavlyuchenko has played second fiddle to Jermain Defoe and Peter Crouch this season, but on a night when Tottenham rarely needed to be at their flowing best, the Russian's second brace in three days brought his cup tally to 13 goals in 13 matches. 
With his side locked in a Premier League relegation battle, there is little that the Bolton manager Owen Coyle would not give for that level of return just now.
Tottenham manager Harry Redknapp:
"It's great to see Pavlyuchenko score four gopals in two games, he's in great form and let's hope he can keep that up to the end of the season. 
"It's difficult for Bolton, because Owen has obviously got the league on his mind, but things are going well for us. 
"It will be a difficult game at Craven Cottage, but we can only focus on the next game, and that's Everton in the league.
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WBA. 2 - 3 Reading

1-0 R. Koren  6.min.
1-1 J. Kebe  9.min.
2-1 R. Koren  47.min.
2-2 B. Howard  90.min.
2-3 G. Sigurdsson  95.min.
www.bbc.co.uk

Tottenham - Bolton

This is a repeating match and winner will face Fulham on the road in the next round. In the first game, Spurs were better rival and unlucky stayed empty handed. In the Premier, they’re in the race for the 4th place, but with the lack of the names in FA Cup Redknapp may see a chance for winning the trophy. At first game as it’s expected for tonight Redknapp rotated the squad, but the fact is those fringe players are actually very good. And in games against physically based teams (as Bolton surely are) they have obvious technical advantage. Tottenham will be without defender Ledley King because of a thigh injury. Arry’s key, Aaron Lennon also misses out after suffering a setback in his recovery from a groin problem, while Younes Kaboul and Kyle Walker are cup-tied. Roman Pavlyuchenko came from the bench and scored twice in last round vs. Wigan and he’s expected to start the game. Gudjohnsen will also get a chance, but more likely in the second half. 

Bolton are facing the tough times trying to avoid relegation. They’re first under the line, with one point less than 17th Hull City. In the previous round, they suffered a hard defeat on the road vs. Blackburn 0-3, while at Saturday (Tottenham will play their game at Sunday) will face Wolves in six points game. Boss Owen Coyle has already stated he’ll rotate the squad and rest some players. However, I don’t expect too much missings and see his talks more like a psychological game. But, real problem for Coyle is Wanderers scored just one goal in last six competitive games (against Spurs in first game)! On-loan midfielder Weiss and Wilshere are cup-tied, while Steinsson (def), Basham (def) and Davies (mid) are injured. Wanderers are without a win in 11 competitive games on the road. 

Tottenham have very good record in FA Cup and they’re very strong at home. Only big name they can face in the next rounds is Chelsea (or Man.City) and they really have a chance to win a trophy. On the other hand Bolton will defend and wait their chance in counter-attack or set-pieces, but true is they’ll be competitive only until first conceded goal. Home win with -1.5 handicap.

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Stoke - Man.City Considering City's psychology, this game definitelly looks like betting on red/black on roulette. Will avoid it.

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WBA - Reading Won't underestimate Reading and will follow their high scoring trend. Over 2.5

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Not so good Saturday

Nottm Forest 2 - 1 Reading

Nottingham Forest extended their unbeaten league run to 18 matches and closed the gap on Championship leaders Newcastle with a victory over Reading.
Paul Anderson put the hosts 1-0 in front in the 11th minute before Robert Earnshaw struck in the 41st minute. 
Reading earned a penalty in an incident which saw Nicky Shorey sent off, but goalkeeper Lee Camp saved Brian Howard's 68th-minute spot-kick. 
Camp twice denied Simon Church before Jimmy Kibbe grabbed a late consolation.
The victory takes Forest to within two points of leaders Newcastle while Reading, fresh from their FA Cup giant-killing exploits against Liverpool in the week, plunge further towards the relegation zone following their sixth league game without a victory.

Nottingham Forest manager Billy Davies:
"We could have had four or five goals in the first half but only scored twice and that gave Reading the opportunity to come back at us. 
"It was a potential trapdoor for us playing against a side in a totally false position and they nearly made us pay in the second half. 
"If we had scored a third goal - as we should - it would have been a totally different type of game in the second half and it's a lesson for us to learn." 
Reading caretaker manager Brian McDermott:
"We were very disappointed with our first-half performance but we were much better in the second and I thought we should have got something from the game. 
"The Forest keeper was the man of the match and if we had scored 10 minutes earlier than we did, we would have got some reward. 
"But we nearly got something against a very strong and talented team who have a really good chance of going up this season."

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Peterborough 0 - 3 Derby

DJ Campbell scored two to punish nine-man Peterborough and ease the pressure on manager Nigel Clough as Derby earned a first victory in five league matches.
The hosts were never in it after Craig Morgan saw red for a lunge at Campbell, and Ryan Bennett was then sent off for a professional foul on the same player. 
Steve Davies scored from the resulting penalty and Derby took total control. 
Campbell made it 2-0 on the follow-up after his initial shot was saved and then headed home to round off the win. 
Victory takes the Rams up to 18th in the table, seven points clear of the drop zone, and leaves Posh holding up the pack five adrift of safety. 
And the result was never in doubt after Morgan's senseless tackle on Campbell rightly brought about his early bath.

Peterborough manager Mark Cooper:
"I'm loath to condemn either the referee or my players involved after only seeing the incidents once in the heat of the moment. 
"Those dismissals changed a game in which we were playing really well and creating the best chances. 
"Even when down to nine men our effort and commitment was absolutely first class." 
Derby manager Nigel Clough:
"Their player's feet were off the ground for the first red card and DJ (Campbell) was through on goal with only the goalkeeper to beat for the second. 
"Obviously it was a big result for us. To go away and score three goals, collect three points and keep a clean sheet was very pleasing. 
"Although I don't think we played as well against nine men as we had against 11."

www.bbc.co.uk

Nottingham Forest - Reading

After a weak start of recent campaign, Forest made an incredible run of 17 Championship games without a defeat. Nine players that club brought at summer transfer market simply needed some time to start perform as a squad. Forest exited FA Cup after a defeat on the road vs. Birmingham (0-1). On that game, manager Billy Davies made seven changes giving an opportunity to some fringe players. They used it very well as Forest were better opponent during the most part of the game. Davies can count on all players except striker Rob Earnshaw with a hamstring injury. They easily create chances and scored large amount of goals, while haven’t conceded more than one since August. Self confidence has been boosted after good performance in Birmingham, but also with a win against WBA on the road, before that.

 

After a departure of their legendary manager Steve Coppell, thing started to go wrong for Royals. The true is they simply don’t posses enough quality not just to progress, but to repeat results from previous seasons. Next boss also got fired in December after club didn’t manage to move from the bottom side of the table and now in charge is caretaker Brian McDermott. Till historic game at Enfield, he didn’t have too many results to be proud on. They’re in the run of five games without a win (two defeats and three draws). They probably got a huge amount of self confidence, but also playing 120 minutes against Reds surely affected on team’s fatigue, but also on lack of focus. Smaller clubs suffer of “first next game” syndrome and returning to Championship reality could be very painful, especially considering today’s opponent. Also, I’m wondering how much Liverpool’s offer for goalie Adam Federici could distract his concentration today. However, McDermott is set to include new signings, full-back Andy Griffin and striker Gunnar Thorvaldsson. Only one of their five league wins this season have been against a team in the top half of the table (Blackpool).

 

Hosts are clear favorites here. They’re playing in a great shape and spine of the team has been rested. Visitors will try to keep a clean sheet and reach a point, but against raging Forest it looks very unlikely. Odd on home win has risen (thankfully to Earnshaw’s injury and weekend punters that back Reading, I guess) and it represents a nice value. Home win and a handicap win as a gamble.

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Probably one more before the kick-off.

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Monday's gossip column

TRANSFER GOSSIP

Chelsea are lining up a bid to sign Brazil Under-15 skipper Lucas Piazon, who is seen as the new Kaka, from Sao Paolo. (Daily Mirror) 
Egypt striker Amr Zaki, who spent last season on loan at Wigan, is wanted by Portsmouth and could join the Premier League club in January. (Daily Mirror) 
Newcastle are monitoring the form of versatile Portugal winger Ukra, who currently plays for Olhanense and was in action against England Under-21s on Saturday. (Daily Mail) 
Championship strugglers Reading want to sign Huddersfield striker Jordan Rhodes and are prepared to pay £600,000 for the player, who joined the Terriers for half that amount from Ipswich in the summer. (Daily Mirror) 

OTHER GOSSIP

England coach Fabio Capello will not select David James for his World Cup squad unless the 39-year-old keeper is fully fit.(Daily Mail) 
Arsenal's England Under-21 defender Kieran Gibbs says he has not even thought that he could yet become a surprise late selection in Capello's World Cup squad. (The Sun) 
England skipper John Terry insisted his team will fear nobody at the World Cup despite watching his side lose against an under-strength Brazil. (The Sun) 
Manchester United defender Gary Neville has called for an elite pool of referees to take charge of high-profile Premier League fixtures.(The Times) 

AND FINALLY

There has been a rush for tickets for the final of the Major League Soccer Cup after David Beckham's LA Galaxy defeated Houston Dynamo 2-0 to qualify for next Sunday's match, when they will take on Real Salt Lake. (Daily Telegraph)

www.bbc.co.uk

Championship

Leicester 1 - 0 Barnsley

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Matty Fryatt's second-half goal gave Leicester victory and left winless Barnsley bottom of the Championship.The Foxes went closest to scoring in an open first half when Lloyd Dyer rode two challenges and fired just wide. 
Barnsley threatened through Martin Devaney's long-range shot before Fryatt opened the scoring, latching on to a Richie Wellens pass and slotting home. 
By now, Leicester were dominating but the Tykes almost snatched an unlikely equaliser when Rob Kozluk fired wide.

Leicester boss Nigel Pearson:

"It was a tough game in many ways but I thought we thoroughly deserved our win."

Barnsley boss Simon Davey:
"Defeat is very disappointing. I thought there was very little between the teams."

Reading 1 - 3 Sheff Utd

An error by Reading keeper Adam Federici helped Sheffield United come from a goal down to beat the Royals.
Matthew Mills headed the home side in front but Stephen Quinn equalised when he side-footed in after Reading failed to clear their lines. 
Gylfi Sigurdsson's drive hit the post for Reading before Federici let Jamie Ward's speculative 25-yard shot through his grasp and into the goal. 
David Cotterill arrowed in a strike to seal victory for the Blades. 
Sheffield United manager Kevin Blackwell:
"We created some lovely goals and we looked a good side at times. It could have been five or six. Apart from a 20-minute spell when Reading scored we were dominant.
Reading boss Brendan Rodgers:
"I understand the fans' frustrations. They want to see their team winning and have just come to an end of a five-year cycle which brought much success.
www.bbc.co.uk

Reading - Sheffield United

After tragically ended previous season, where first missed to win in last round against Birmingham at home and reach direct promotion, then lost in semi-final of play-off against Burnley, Royals came in this season with different squad. First Steve Copell lost his job, then some very important players like Kevin Doyle, Michael Duberry, Graeme Murty, Marcus Hahnemann, Leroy Lita, Stephen Hunt and more recently Andre Bikey left the club. Seven players. New boss is very talented Brendan Rodgers (ex Watford), but team lost the quality and despite the same ambitions as usual, mid-table finish is more realistic. After three rounds, Reading still don’t have a win, in fact they still haven’t scored. Two goalless draws (Nottingham Forest at home and Swansea City away) and defeat against Newcastle 0-3 on the road. Reading are waiting on the fitness of winger Jimmy Kebe, while Marek Matejovsky is still not considered match fit after his own recent groin injury.

United as Reading have the highest ambitions, but the difference is they have quality for that. The Blades also lost against Burnley in clash for Premier, but squad remained almost the same. It means, iron defense and very strong midfield. The only problem is attacking line. Team lost excellent striker James Beattie and spent 3 mill.pounds for his replacement Ched Evans. They had excellent away record last season with just five defeats from 23 games and only 17 goals conceded (Championship record). United are likely to be without midfielder Brian Howard, who has gone down with tonsillitis. But fellow midfielder Lee Hendrie is available once again after serving a four-match ban.

Oppositely from bookies, I think Blades are slight favorites here and see value in these odds. But, also wouldn’t exclude a possibility of another draw and instead clear away win, suggest 0.25 (1.77) handicap on United, or simply DNB (2.05).

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Reading 0-2 Burnley (agg 0-3)

Spectacular strikes from Martin Paterson and Steven Thompson ensured Burnley defeated Reading to book a Championship play-off final tie against Sheffield United.
Leading 1-0 from the first leg, Burnley limited their opponents to precious few openings before two goals in seven decisive second-half minutes sealed victory for Owen Coyle's team. 
Marcus Hahnemann was powerless to stop Paterson's vicious 25-yard left-footed strike after 51 minutes. 
And the Reading keeper was equally helpless as Thompson's looping, opportunist strike from the left-hand corner of the penalty area went in off the crossbar minutes later. 
Burnley's 3-0 aggregate victory means that they are now one match away from a return to the top flight of English football after a 33-year absence.
The final will be the Clarets' 61st match of a long and adventurous season that saw them come within minutes of Wembley in the Carling Cup. 
Reading are left to reflect on a campaign that at one point suggested an immediate return to the Premier League but floundered on a dramatic loss of form at home over the closing months of the season.

Reading: Hahnemann, Rosenior, Pearce, Duberry, Harding, Kebe (Kitson 53), Gunnarsson, Matejovsky (Stephen Hunt 52), Tabb, Church (Little 53), Long. 
Subs Not Used: Federici, Cisse. 
Booked: Duberry, Kitson, Long. 

Burnley: Jensen, Duff, Carlisle, Caldwell, Kalvenes, Elliott (Eagles 84), Alexander, McCann, Paterson (Gudjonsson 71), Thompson (Rodriguez 79), Blake. 
Subs Not Used: Penny, McDonald. 
Booked: Kalvenes, Elliott. 
Goals: Paterson 51, Thompson 58. 

Att: 19,909 
Ref: Mike Riley (Yorkshire).
www.bbc.co.uk

Reading - Burnley

Before the season start, Reading was the main favorite for wining Championship. Considering the names, it is the same team that relegated from Premier, even strengthened. They reached a place for direct promotion (in January, if my memory is correct), but from then their shape has been in decreasing path. In the last league round, they missed a chance for place number two, loosing against Birmingham at home, 1-2. Their performance characterize excellent defense line, tough and very well organized midfield, but the main problem is realization. Kevin Doyle plays much under the expectations and maybe that is the biggest reason for current situation. Have a lots of problems against defense oriented teams at Madejsky. Statistic for panic-attack says Royals haven’t won at home ground since 27.01.2009 (Wolverhampton, 1-0), eight games! Three draws and five defeats, six times didn’t score. In the first game, Royals were dominating in the first 45 minutes, missing four excellent opportunities. But, bad luck came in the second period. First, mentioned Kevin Doyle got injury renewal (and 99% finished the season), then penalty kick was gifted to Burnley and at the end defender Andre Bikey got a red card and four-match ban! I think the big pressure will be on the home side (completely same as Birmingham game).

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Burnley played very good season, announcing high ambitions from the beginning. With the brave attitude and attacking style of play they got a lots of sympathy and in combination with good results were already seen in play-off, much before the season ended. But, it seems at the first sight, they’re paying the price for playing in three competitions, 59 games played! But, the good side is they specialized for cup games. Their shoot list contains names as Chelsea, Arsenal and Fulham (almost eliminated Tottenham too, in Carling Cup semi-final). In the first game, boss Owen Coyle gave up from attacking style, trying to keep the net first, leaving the space to the visitors. Pure luck and brilliant goalie Brian Jensen kept that tactic unpunished. Five minutes before the end, Graham Alexander scored from penalty kick and gave a real hope before the re-match. I’ve been trying a while to discover do they have really serious injury problems, as they’re saying, or just want to present themselves as a bigger outsiders than they really are. The fact is, three very important players are under the question mark. Wade Elliott missed out on Saturday with a leg injury and his replacement, Joey Gudjonsson, was taken off after a heavy challenge, but both face tests. For me, the most important is appearance of excellent winger Chris Eagles. His fast runs can be decisive for this game. He will pass a late test on his jarred hip problem. Anyway, I don’t believe in Coyle’s moaning, too much. Clarets have experience how to play big games against much better teams, usually turning the surplus of pressure into surplus of adrenaline.

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Considering names, home side deserved a direct promotion. Considering opinions from a bunch of eminent experts, they’re the best team in play-off (hm…ok). Maybe it is the sixth sense before the facts, but I give an advantage to visitors. I think they’re mentally much stronger, the full crowd and big expectations can be just a rock tied up for the legs, for home side. I’ll go for Burnley, with a small stake. Pinnacle offers very high 4.68. Away win.

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Crystal Palace - Sheffield United (Sunday)

The last round in Championship! Stake is direct promotion and contenders are Birmingham City (80 points), Sheffield United (79) and Reading (77). First about Eagles. C. Palace is one of those clubs which don't have too much motivation recently. They display decent performances, but the results are missing. Just one win from last eight games (Derby County, home 1-0). In the last round, they played very good game against Doncaster, on the road. Three times they hit the post at 0-0 and one goal was cancelled later. At the end 0-2, both goals conceded after the big mistakes of defence line. Skipper Shaun Derry, midfielder John Oster, winger Paul Ifill and young striker Sean Scannell are injured, while defender Claude Davis is suspended.

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For Blades, calculation is simple. They'll promote if they win and Birmingham loose or make a draw in Reading (what a game!). So, I think Reading will not loose and Blades have the fate in their own hands. Sheff.Utd. has just one defeat in the last 14 games and if they reach Premier directly, it would be fully deserved. One more thing is important. C.Palace's boss is Neil Warnock, man who was in charge in Sheff.Utd. when they relegated from Premier last time (Carlos Tevez scored then at Old Trafford for 1-0 win. West Ham stayed, Utd. droped. Tevez didn't have a clear status then and many talks about that, even these days). After that match, Warnock left Bramall Lane, now he has opportunity to help his former club. 

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The only limitation about this game can be bad result in Reading game and in that case possible drop in Sheff.Utd. performance. I don't think it will happen. This is the pick of the month and I expected nothing less than win with two or more goals difference. Pinnacle offers 1.68, Expekt 1.65. Highest confidence, away win. Handicap as a gamble.

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Charlton Athletic - Norwich City

Maybe I'm little emotional, but really don't think Norwich is capable to avoid relegation. Charlton plays for pure pleasure, but will try to drag another team with themselves in League One. As they did with the Saints (3-2 on the road). Bwin offers lovely 3.65. Home win!