Championship betting, Nott Forest - Cardiff

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Instead to be contenders for play-off, Forest are under a serious relegation threat (first under the line, at the moment). They have five defeats out of last six (one draw) and haven’t score a single goal in those. (Now when I’ve noticed, they’ll probably smash one in the opening 10 minutes!) At home, three defeats in a row and every of them looks a bit embarrassing. First trashing from Leeds 0-4, then 0-1 defeats vs. Palace and Posh.

Cardiff have only one defeat of last 13 competitive games, unlucky one at home vs. ‘Boro. They’ve noticed only two away defeats of season’s 12 and are undefeated in last six, but have played too many draws lately (7 of 12 away). Oppositely from the hosts, they are serious promotion contenders (as every year though).

My impression is such high odds on visitors are based more on Forest’s reputation then on recent results and potential. I am covering a draw, but expect Cardiff to nick one for 0-1.

Bet: Cardiff 0.0
Odd: 2.02 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 8/10
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Championship betting, Cardiff - Brighton

Before the start of the season, my impression was Cardiff lost some quality. But, two nice wins for them in the first two rounds. First lucky one at Upton Park, then they furiously finished the job for 35 min against B.City at home. Certainly, they won’t be lacking in confidence tonight. Only doubt is midfielder, Aron Gunnarsson, who will face the late fitness test. Cardiff haven’t lost last nine home league games against Brighton and lost only one of the last 12 in league. On the other hand, they never won the first three fixtures of a season in their 91-year league history (why should they now?). Every of their last seven home games produced three or more goals.

Brighton also made an impressive start of the campaign, winning both league games (and Carling Cup fixture). However, they were very fortunate in both of them. First scored a winner against Donny in 97th min and at Pompey, Liam Lawrence missed a penalty in 96th min for a draw. Maybe, they’re running out of luck. They play nice passing game and have great Craig Mackail-Smith in attack. It should make a serious threat for Welsh defence line. Only problem for Poyet is other striker Will Buckley (scored twice against Donny), got an injury and will be out for tonight. The Seagulls haven’t lost in nine away league games (6W, 3D). 

Both sides won their games and we still haven’t seen their limits. I am closer to think that home win is on cards, but all that attacking potential should produce some goals and make a good entertainment. Over for me.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.86 Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10
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Play-off betting, Cardiff - Reading

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Like the prospect of goals here and especially odds on it. Both sides are attacking minded (Cardiff at home) and those are fifth and third attacks in Championship. Cardiff’s style is different when they play at home which usually makes them more vulnerable at the back. Their matches against top scoring sides produced some goals, Norwich 3-1, Leeds 2-1, Reading 2-2 and Watford 3-1. Think Reading is more than able to hurt the hosts and I doubt that Dave Jones will change the style and set a cautious approach relying on his defence line. Counter attacks, Shane Long, Ian Harte free kicks, I’m sure Reading will be very dangerous. Additionally, Cardiff at home and Reading away have scored in 18 of their 23 games during the season. Also, only one game at Cardiff City Stadium ended with goalless draw.

Maybe not enough reasons, but as I said odd definitely worth a try. I will take over 2.25, with two goals half stake is back.

I’m refusing any thought to be involved in a City’s game tonight.

Bet: Over 2.25
Odd: 1.96 188bet
Stake: 8/10 
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Championship - last round 7 May

Now it becomes really ridiculous. FA has delayed its verdict to Monday as the earliest date. This practically means QPR, Cardiff, Swans and even Leeds won’t even know for what they’re playing.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/football/13301409.stm

I think Warnock will ask lads for “one more time”, to finish it with the style and pray for the best. Leeds have, not only to win, but to hope Nott Forest will lose at C.Palace and eventually to overcome -6 goal difference! Hm... QPR still could be a very good bet (2.20 at William Hill and 188bet). As well as Cardiff and Swansea. Cardiff will certainly try to regain some confidence after Monday’s embarrassment. 2.90 in some form of handicap looks decent (let’s say 0.0 @ 2.12 188bet). Brendan Rodgers says Swansea are normally preparing for play-off. Against bottom eight clubs, they have six wins of seven games (this will be 8th). Sheff Utd made a sensational win at Reading, but then in a decisive game missed to defeat Barnsley at home! How painful it could be?! I guess no one there will be in the mood for football tomorrow. Which again, makes -1ah @ 1.93 Pinnacle probably a very good call. 

For the end, here’s one very good article from QPR fans’ forum. And very depressive for them. Guy predicts 30 points deduction with very good reasons and examples from the past. 

http://www.qprnet.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=10013&start=15

Betting previews will follow...

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Cardiff - Middlesbrough

Dead heat between Cardiff and Norwich continues. The Bluebirds play first today and have a chance to put some pressure on the Canaries. Recently they’re scoring for fun (20 goals in last 8 games, scored in every of them), but at same time have been showing some defensive frailties. Goalie Bywater is back, Cardiff have won last six games at home vs. ‘Boro.

I feel ashamed to tipped ‘Boro as league favourites, before the season started. Guess no one would be able to give a proper answer what’s happened. They did secure the status, but continue with decent displays. Just one defeat out of last 10 encounters and as Cardiff have scored in each of last eight (seven of those ended with 3 or more goals). ‘Boro also have produced some non-common results this year, like 3-3 (twice), 3-4, 2-5, 4-2. Striker McDonald and defenders, McManus and McMahon, are in doubt. 

It’s out of question who’s favourite in this game. But, ‘Boro have very good quality (deeply underachieved though) and they’re probably the most unpredictable side in Championship. I guess they’d simply enjoy to bury Cardiff’s hopes. Think they’re definitely able to score, maybe even to make a first class surprise.

Bet: Over 3
Odd: 2.03 Canbet
Stake: 8/10 
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Cardiff - Portsmouth

It seems Welsh lads have learnt the lesson from previous years, when in this part of the season were blowing away their promotion chances. They have three wins in a row, with a fourth would come back to the second place. They last five games produced 20 goals and Cardiff have an average of one conceded goal in home games (Pompey’s average is one scored goal per away game). Stephen McPhail is in doubt, Chopra is out. Today’s win would be the first double over Pompey since 1971.

In February and March, Portsmouth made a run of six consecutive wins (without a single goal conceded) and secured a Championship status. After that, just one win of next six encounters. In the previous round, suffered an unexpected defeat at home against Coventry. Playing at Cardiff is always a good motivation, but there won’t be any pressure. Hayden Mullins is out.

I have impression that 1.55 for a home win doesn’t represent the real risk. Expect Pompey to score and to push the game in the over. Goals for me.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.90 Expekt
Stake: 8/10
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Watford - Norwich

Watford have lost three games in a row (‘Boro, Coventry and Hull) and seems already gave up from a play-off spot. They are on my black list, simply they win when nobody wants them to win. And this is game just like that, they have no real motivation, but can play fully relaxed and score. When we talk about scoring, Watford at home have unreal average of 3.2 goals per a game (36-28 goal difference at 20 games). No injury concerns for boss Malky Mackay.

Norwich, on the other hand, are fighting for a direct promotion. They’re second with a point more than Welsh duo Cardiff and Swans. In the previous round, they suffered a heavy defeat at Swans 0-3 and ended a run of nine games without defeat. Interesting fact is, under Paul Lambert (since August 2009), they haven’t made a two defeats in a row. On the other hand, they have bad record against tonight’s hosts. Norwich won just once in last seven occasions (both at home and away) and lost five of them. Midfielder Wes Hoolahan is rated as in doubt.

I expect from Norwich to bounce back and they should be closer to win. And when Watford are losing (same when winning) they do it in series. But, also expect an open game with both sides scoring. Over for me.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.80 various
Stake: 8/10
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Nottingham Forest - Cardiff

Forest ended their run of six consecutive league wins with hard fought draw vs QPR, and then made everything but expected slip at Scunthorpe. They haven’t lost at home for 34 encounters, but have a tendency to make draws against top half sides. QPR 0-0, Norwich 1-1, Leeds 1-1, Millwall 1-1 and this season defeated only Swansea 3-1. Majewski is still suspended.

Cardiff are second and are undefeated in last nine competitive games (five draws). They have best record against top-half sides with seven wins and four draws out of 16 matches. They also have a nice record at City, haven’t suffered a defeat in last six visits (last time at 1975). Defender Paul Quinn is in doubt, Chopra and Bellamy should start.

Usually I don’t even look on that market, but I’m going for a draw here.

Bet: Draw
Odd: 3.40 various
Stake: 3/10

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Scunthorpe - Nottingham Forest

At the first glance, Nott Forest look like an obvious choice. Both sides are going in the opposite directions and their recent forms leave no doubt.
But, first I was struggling to find any value in the offered price. 1.70-1.80 for away win in Championship? Then realized Forest actually have Cardiff on the corner in, which I assume, will be a game of the season for them. So, I don’t think they’ll push till their limits tonight, in their minds they will probably be somewhere else, Billy Davies wouldn’t certainly like to see some injuries in the mud of Glanford Park and Forest defeated Scunthorpe just once in last six occasions, both at home and away.
I don’t have any problem to leave this game alone. No bet.

Pity for Cardiff last night...
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Cardiff - Burnley

Cardiff are holding a position for direct promotion, but have four clubs that are breathing on their neck (from those, Forest have a game in hand). They’re in a decent shape, won three of last four games, undefeated in six and have dropped only two points out of the last 15 at home. Whittingham and McNaughton should both return.

Since Eddie Howe took a charge, Burnley have made a decent run of results with three wins, draw and one defeat out of last five. Striker Charlie Austin will have a late fitness test, while midfielder Chris McCann stays sidelined. Burnley have conceded one goal in each of their last five matches and have six consecutive defeats at Cardiff.

At home, Cardiff are usually struggling against bottom sides. They hardly defeated miserable Scunny in previous round and noticed only draws against rest three of bottom four (Preston, Palace and Sheff Utd). Burnley will be confident and not so defensive, approach that absolutely suits to Cardiff. Home win. 2-0 correct score.   

Bet: Cardiff -0.5
Odd: 2.05 Canbet
Stake: 7/10

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Cardiff - Watford

Home side are promotion contender, currently two points behind rivals Swansea (with a game in hand). Pressure on Dave Jones is growing recently as they won only two of their last nine league games. He has signed on loan Arsenal’s Aaron Ramsey and striker Jay Emmanuel-Thomas. Both will be available for the game. Bothroyd returned to training and will have some role today. Bellamy should start.  

Before the start Watford were one of my favourites for relegation (as ‘Boro were for promotion), but they’re currently holding 6th place and have noticed seven wins in a row (six in league), having scored the highest number of goals (50, two goals per game in average)! Malky Mackay also has strengthened his squad with signing winger Townsend and striker Weimann on loan. Despite skipper Eustace and midfielder Cowie are sidelined, I’m sure they won’t be lacking in self-confidence.

Cardiff should be favourite here, but I’m not sure does it worth at 2.00. Games between these two sides are usually high scoring affairs, last nine(!) ended with three or more goals and I’m going on over.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.87 188bet
Stake: 8/10

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Tuesday's results and statistic update

Good night after all. I was so annoyed when Colchester turned the game from 0-1 to 2-1 and then conceded for a draw. Then I paid attention on the other results... Complete chaos! I wasn't even thinking about Cardiff and QPR, but plenty of shocking results. Leeds, Nott Forest, Bristol Rovers, Hudders, Rotheram, Peterborough... Last 3 weeks in England are real mine field. But... Most important thing. My September is green, finally!!! Yes!

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Spartak Moskva - MSK Zilina  3-0  WON

Colchester - Dag & Red  2-2  LOST

Norwich - Leicester  4-3  WON

Statistic:

September
Profit: +1.82 units Yield: +1.65%

Season
Profit: +27.18 units Yield: +12.11%

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Wednesday's result

Cardiff - Burton 1-1 (4-1 AET)  LOST

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The day of break, will be back soon. 

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Statistic:

Profit: +4.65

Yield: +12.08

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Cardiff - Burton

Cardiff started new campaign with a home draw against Sheff.Utd. (1-1). They can be a little bit disappointed as there was a one way traffic when Utd. got a red card. Defence line isn’t still an iron one, but attacking force is great. For tonight’s game Dave Jones can’t rotate players too much from a simply reason, due to recent transfer embargo he doesn’t have enough players for it! Against Blades, only 4 players were substitutes. Cardiff passed the first round in all but one of the last 8 years and have reached the third round in each of the last 3 seasons. Goalie Tom Heaton will replace injured David Marshall, defender Kevin McNaughton is in doubt and new on-loan signing Seyi Olofinjana won’t be involved.

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Burton is an average League Two side, last season they finished 13^th. Interesting fact is they conceded 71 goals in 46 games which is 3^rd highest number in the league (scored the same number though). Weak defence and attacking approach surely isn’t a way how any team should face Cardiff away. Cup history isn’t bright, as well. Just one appearing, last year and disaster at Reading 1-5. Burton also have one game in the Johnstone's Paint Trophy and lost against Chesterfield with the same result. Defender Darren Moore is injured and probably won’t be risked, the same situation is with the right-back Andrew Corbett. Midfielder Jacques Maghoma is away on international duty with DR Congo.

 

I expect a strong eleven from Dave Jones and have an impression players feel a little bit frustrated after missed to score few more times against Blades at Sunday. This is a perfect opponent to heal their complexes. Chopra (I expect him to start) would like to go. Good, this is a great chance for him to show some skills to the visiting scouts. Against Burton’s defence, he should run the riot.

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Bet: Cardiff -1.25

Odd: 1.95 bet365

Stake: 7/10

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Gamble: Chopra to score hat-trick

Odd: 19.00 bet365

Stake: 0.5/10

Voohoo!

Cardiff C. * 2 - 3 Leicester C.

1 - 0 M. Chopra  21.min
1 - 1 M. Fryatt  25.min
1 - 2 M. Hudson (o.g.)  36.min
1 - 3 A. King  49.min
2 - 3 P. Whittingham (pen.)  69. min

  penalty shoot-out : [4 - 3]
www.livescore.com

Cardiff City - Leicester City

Cardiff have a bad habit to disapoint when everybody epxects them to shine.Very talented players though.
Leicester were better in the first game,had two penalties denied and few sitters missed.They also looked more consistent through the season.
To make it clear,this is instict before the objective reasons. Away win,3.90 at betsson.

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Coventry City - Plymouth Argyle

Coventry are in a great run of results and now they’re just 3 points far from play-off zone. Break moment was a home win vs. Nott.Forest which gave them a large amount of self-confidence. In next five games, crew from Ricoh Arena has noticed four wins and just one defeat (Newcastle on the road). Their game is not so pretty to watch, but it’s tactically perfect. Coleman is a great manager, team is well balanced, possess a decent quality and it won’t be surprise if they finish in play-off. The Sky Blues will be without defenders, injured Ben Turner and suspended Leon Barnett. Good news is returning of defender Richard Wood and midfielder David Bell. A win today would be a perfect warming-up for Tuesday’s clash at Ricoh vs. 6^th Cardiff.

 

Plymouth are second from the bottom, seven points far from safe zone. They could already start the preparation for the third tier as team simply doesn’t possess enough quality for Championship. They’ve made some shocking displays through the season (1-0 away wins vs. ‘Boro and Cardiff), carry a fighting spirit and far from that they gave up, but Argyle have noticed just a single win in last nine games. Defender Reda Johnson is out injured, while winger Craig Noone and midfielder Chris Clark will face a fitness test. Boss Mariner hopes the club will finish the deal about loaning WBA defender Bondz N’Gala in time to play. 

 

Coventry are flying high and a play-off dream is a great motivator. They have a more than decent quality and look good, especially at home. Plymouth  recently have plenty of problems in defense line, while in front look almost harmless. Their best results have been consequences of opponent’s underestimating. Chris Coleman won’t allow that. Home win - 1.90 at Pinnacle and handicap as a gamble.

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Bristol City 1-1 Cardiff City

Gavin Williams scored a tremendous injury-time equaliser to rescue a replay for Bristol City in the FA Cup third-round tie with Cardiff City.
The Welshman arrived at the edge of the area to meet Nicky Maynard's square ball perfectly, Williams blasting a low shot across the diving David Marshall. 
Michael Chopra had given Cardiff a 76th-minute lead when his touchline lob caught Dean Gerken out of position. 
The replay will be held on Tuesday, 19 January at the Cardiff City Stadium. 
With the original date for this game having been postponed because of the freezing weather sweeping the country, there were some nervous glances skywards as fresh show swirled around Ashton Gate.
But Robins groundstaff had worked hard to ensure the game would go ahead and both sets of players went to work with gusto in the icy night air.Then on 76 minutes Chopra produced a moment of skill and opportunism to break the deadlock. 
Warren Feeney chased what seemed to be a lost cause down the right but did enough to cause Robins keeper Gerken to botch his kick. 

The ball fell to Chopra tight on the touchline and the striker curled a sublime first-time chip over the despairing Gerken into the Bristol net - his first goal since 29 September.Then two minutes into injury Maynard collected the ball on the Cardiff 'D', held off his marker and laid the ball perfectly into the path of Williams arriving on the right. 
The Wales midfielder barely had to break stride and clattered a pin-point shot into the far corner to deny the club he supported as a youngster. 
Although denied the win tonight, Cardiff will at least have home-field advantage in a week's time for the replay that will decided who advances to meet Leicester in the fourth round.

www.bbc.co.uk

Bristol City - Cardiff City

Bristol City are in crisis of results as they won only once in last ten Championship games. But on the other hand, they’re also one of the best hosts in the second tier. This season lost just once (in 12 games) at Ashton Gate, previous 3 (in 23) and in season before also 3. Two defenders are out for this game. Jamie McCombe is injured, while Lewin Nyatanga serves a one-match ban. Good news is Robins will be stronger for Evander Sno and Gavin Williams (both midfielders) who are fit after injuries.

 

Cardiff have extended their own crisis with a Saturday’s home draw against Blackpool that ended with booing from the stands. Beside large amount of injuries, virus hit the squad leaving to manager Dave Jones small number of available players. Also, club has been accused for unpaid tax which surely hasn’t improved morale in the club. Also, that could lead to selling of some key players. Rumours are Jay Bothroyd is wanted by Villa, Ledley by Celtic. If Bothroyd play tonight will be cup tied for further cup games in new club. This also applies for Ledley in case of his departure to English club and it’s very possible both will be out of the squad. Jones intends to send some youngsters tonight and big doubt is how much tonight’s eleven will be competitive. Cardiff are winless in last five games at Ashton Gate.

 

This will be tight game, but clear advantage should be given to the hosts. They’re fully motivated and with almost full squad. I wouldn’t totally exclude a possibility of a draw and see dnb option as a good bet, while home win should be considered as a gamble.

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Cardiff 1-1 Blackpool

Charlie Adam's ninth league goal of the season secured a point for Blackpool at a bitterly cold Cardiff City Stadium.
Ian Holloway's side had to come from behind after Mark Hudson gave Cardiff a ninth minute lead, heading home Peter Whittingham's free kick. 
The Bluebirds also hit the bar through youngster Josh Magennis who later went off with a suspected broken leg. 
Adam levelled for Blackpool 28 seconds after the restart firing low into the bottom corner. 
The game could have gone either way as the promotion rivals looked to keep up the pressure on the top two. 
Cardiff remain fourth in the Championship, while Blackpool climb up a place to seventh, just one position and two points off the play-offs.

Cardiff manager Dave Jones:
"Supporters are entitled to boo and cheer but I've said before that I don't understand booing your own players. 
"We've played a team who's up there and we seem to think we have this divine right. 
"We've got three or four lads in their throwing up and they could have easily come off. 
"I'm proud of them today because they've dug in and that's hard going." 
Blackpool manager Ian Holloway:
"I am pleased Cardiff did so well to get the game on but it didn't look as though we had turned up in the first half," he admitted. 
"I had a go at my players during half-time and the second half was totally different as we forced their keeper to make a number of saves. The longer it went on the more we looked like going on to win. 
"I cannot understand the crowd jeering Cardiff off the field when they are fourth in the league. They should have a reality check."

www.bbc.co.uk