Championship final, 5.50 gamble

Reading  - Swansea

I have same feeling for Reading, as I had for Posh. At the first glance two evenly matched sides, but formal hosts seem to have more tactical discipline and for me look better under the pressure. If we expect a nervy game, some advantage would go to them. Their away record shouldn’t be overlooked as well. Reading are without a defeat in league in last nine trips, in last four haven’t conceded (two of those were Leeds and Cardiff re-match). Swans defeated Millwall and made a heroic 10 men performance vs. Forest, but before that automatic promotion were lost on their away games. Two key men in my opinion are Shane Long (of course) and Nathan Dyer (very annoying lad when you bet against Swans). Five of last seven finals ended with 1-0. Shane Long have had a brilliant season, his top performance in the most important game should natural. He to score and Reading to win 1-0 is tasty 29.00. Second scoring option is Ian Harte (same bet for him is 67.00 at Victor Chandler). He already played Champions League semi, he’ll be calm and have scored 10 goals in 30 games for Reading!

After all no serious bet, it is 90mill game (they must be joking!) and it’s more feeling than the facts. Gamble for me would be Shane Long to score and Reading to win @ 5.50 (Paddy Power).

Sorry for late posting. Good luck to all and enjoy the game.

Gamble: Long to score and Reading to win
Odd: 5.50 Paddy Power 
Stake: 1/10
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Play-off betting, Cardiff - Reading

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Like the prospect of goals here and especially odds on it. Both sides are attacking minded (Cardiff at home) and those are fifth and third attacks in Championship. Cardiff’s style is different when they play at home which usually makes them more vulnerable at the back. Their matches against top scoring sides produced some goals, Norwich 3-1, Leeds 2-1, Reading 2-2 and Watford 3-1. Think Reading is more than able to hurt the hosts and I doubt that Dave Jones will change the style and set a cautious approach relying on his defence line. Counter attacks, Shane Long, Ian Harte free kicks, I’m sure Reading will be very dangerous. Additionally, Cardiff at home and Reading away have scored in 18 of their 23 games during the season. Also, only one game at Cardiff City Stadium ended with goalless draw.

Maybe not enough reasons, but as I said odd definitely worth a try. I will take over 2.25, with two goals half stake is back.

I’m refusing any thought to be involved in a City’s game tonight.

Bet: Over 2.25
Odd: 1.96 188bet
Stake: 8/10 
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Wolves - WBA, betting tip - 13h cet

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Wolves are two points below the line and in last two rounds will visit Sunderland and in last day potential cracker, will host Blackburn. It’s a must win game, one point would leave only slim chances for survive. They’re winless in last five and will have some problems in front line as Kightly, Ebanks-Blake and Doyle are probably all out. Wolves have noticed only one win out of last ten clashes against WBA.

The Baggies are safe, but wouldn’t lack in motivation to send big rivals down to Championship. Since Roy Hodgson took the charge, they look like reborn with just one defeat out of last ten matches (Chelsea). Skipper Brunt, Reid and Jara are doubts, Scharner is suspended, Jerome Thomas should play.

I cannot see Wolves winning this one. They look toothless in front and defensive line is prone to big mistakes. Keeping a draw doesn’t make too much sense, but if they push too much for a winner will get execution.

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Bet: WBA 0.0
Odd: 2.45 Tipico
Stake: 7/10
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Championship Betting - 13:45 cet

Swansea - Sheff Utd

The reasons I wrote yesterday apply.

Bet: Swansea -1
Odd: 1.86 Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10 
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Crystal Palace - Nottingham Forest

Palace will stay in Championship. They secured the status mainly with great home run of results with only one defeat out of last 15 games at Selhurst Park. Interesting fact is all but one of those 14 were draws, or wins by one goal.

Forest need a point to be mathematically in play-off, but even without it it’s hard to believe Leeds will be able to jeopardize their spot. Same is with their chances to leapfrog Reading.

I expect a relaxed game without any pressure. Palace wouldn’t like to lose in the last home game, Forest won’t push for a win and will just try to avoid defeat keeping the momentum for play-off. My gamble of a day is draw.

Bet: Draw
Odd: 3.60 Ladbrokes

Stake: 3/10   

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Cardiff - Middlesbrough

Dead heat between Cardiff and Norwich continues. The Bluebirds play first today and have a chance to put some pressure on the Canaries. Recently they’re scoring for fun (20 goals in last 8 games, scored in every of them), but at same time have been showing some defensive frailties. Goalie Bywater is back, Cardiff have won last six games at home vs. ‘Boro.

I feel ashamed to tipped ‘Boro as league favourites, before the season started. Guess no one would be able to give a proper answer what’s happened. They did secure the status, but continue with decent displays. Just one defeat out of last 10 encounters and as Cardiff have scored in each of last eight (seven of those ended with 3 or more goals). ‘Boro also have produced some non-common results this year, like 3-3 (twice), 3-4, 2-5, 4-2. Striker McDonald and defenders, McManus and McMahon, are in doubt. 

It’s out of question who’s favourite in this game. But, ‘Boro have very good quality (deeply underachieved though) and they’re probably the most unpredictable side in Championship. I guess they’d simply enjoy to bury Cardiff’s hopes. Think they’re definitely able to score, maybe even to make a first class surprise.

Bet: Over 3
Odd: 2.03 Canbet
Stake: 8/10 
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Blackpool - Stoke

This is do or die game for the Seasiders (as the previous two were though). Only goal difference is keeping them above the line and beside Stoke, they’ll host Bolton and visit Spurs and Man Utd. A failure today would probably send them to Championship. They have far worst defence in Premier that in average concedes more than 2 goals per a game. At some moments they don’t even look serious, although showed some improvement against the Toon. Both sides have scored in every of previous 17 games at Bloomfield Road.

Stoke are safe and only area of interest is FA Cup and the final next Sunday. They don’t need points, but I doubt they’d like to damage team morale by losing from the side that is winless in last seven games and has one win of last 14. Besides that, Stoke haven’t lost there since 1964 (10 games). They will miss Etherington who is very important player for the team, but some other guys are in a top shape. Kenwyne Jones, Walters and Pennant should be running the riot. Also, I’m not sure Blackpool will be able to defend the set pieces.

Personally I’ll be cheering for Blackpool. Side that plays 4-3-3 in Premier League regardless the name of opponent should stay, at least for the sake of the game. They will be fighting and attacking, but poor defending will probably send them down to Championship. Goals for me.

Bet: Over 2.75
Odd: 2.00 Pinnacle
Stake: 7/10
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Championship 30 Apr - Preview of the round, betting tips and previews

Nottingham Forest - Scunthorpe

The most interesting will be the fight for the last play-off space. Forest have clear calculation. They’ll get it with six points from games against, all but predictable, Scunny at home and Palace on the road that could be a real last day cracker. The main problem is defence line that conceded 17 goals on last 7 games. Scunny could be able score and push this game in over. But also, a sensation is not a strange word for the visitors. They defeated Forest at home, where also trashed the leaders QPR (4-1). On the road shocked Hull and Reading. It’s an easy choice to leave this game alone.

Leeds - Burnley (1:45 cet)

Leeds need to win both times (in last round they’ll visit QPR who btw. could face a penalty and points deduction at Tuesday) and to hope Forest (and Millwall of course) will slip somewhere. After they wasted many points in last five rounds it’s not so big chance, but Leeds are the kings of drama and since the end of golden era in 90s just very few times they haven’t presented a stressful finish to their fans. Burnley noticed only a draw at home vs. Pompey, it could affect their morale but they’re still one point above Leeds. Draw is unacceptable for both sides and whoever will take a lead, will also try to improve goal difference for the final ranking. I could give some advantage to Leeds, but my main choice will be goals.

Millwall - Swansea

There will be hell, the Lions are in the race again and packed Den will host Swans. They won six of last nine games and big boost is a return of their key man and top scorer, Steve Morison, after he served a three match suspension. Swansea have secured their play-off spot where they will probably face Reading. Reasons for a good effort are 4th place (playing re-match at home) and improving recent away record (a draw and four defeats out of last five) and self-confidence before decisive matches. It will be hard, since Swans have a discouraging record on the road against top side teams, losing seven out of nine. Another thing is very interesting. In the previous game, Brendan Rodgers left on the bench probably his best player - Scott Sinclair. He said that young player has never played the full season, looks very tired and he’ll try to manage it. If you’re afraid for the best player, the Den is definitely not a place for him. So, maybe he will just save him for play-off.

Derby - Bristol City

Derby are safe, but looked in a very good shape, putting some more than decent displays recently. Defeated Leeds at home, grabbed a point at Loftus Road and undeservedly lost at Norwich in 96th minute. A win in the last home game could be a satisfaction. This will be also the last game for Robbie Savage and I can expect some additional effort from the players for their skipper. City are also safe, but look like they are already planning summer holidays as they’ve noticed four defeats and a draw out of last five. They will also miss the best striker, Nicky Maynard.

Hull City - Crystal Palace

Hull blew their play-off chances, Palace need a point to be mathematically safe. The hosts haven’t won in 15 of 22 home games, losing vs. bottom sides Scunny and Sheff Utd. Palace are a tough nut to crack on the road recently, taking two points from last two trips (Donny and Leicester). Four of last five games between these clubs ended undecided. This game has a draw written all over it. 

Bet 1: Leeds - Burnley, over 2.50, Odd: 1.80 Interwetten, Stake: 8/10

Bet 2: Millwall -0.25, Odd: 2.11 Canbet, Stake: 8/10

Bet 3: Derby to win, Odd: 2.30 William Hill, Stake: 7/10

Gamble: Hull - C.Palace, draw @ 3.75 bet365, Stake: 2/10

(Early bets, since the odds will probably drop tomorrow.)

*table taken from bet365.com

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Cardiff - QPR

Cardiff made an April run of four games without a win and just when I thought they’re about to blow it again, they noticed four wins in a row (12-2 goal diff. in those). However, they dropped on 3rd place after Norwich’s win at Ipswich. Norwich also have not so bad schedule and maybe could take all points in last three games. So, this is crucial game for the Blue Birds. Top scorer, Jay Bothroyd, is fully fit, goalie Heaton could also start the game.

Queens Park are topping the table with big eight points more than Cardiff and Neil Warnock states they don’t feel any pressure. The true is they looked like that in a home draw vs. Derby, but they actually have three more tough games after Wales. At Monday they’ll host play-off contenders Hull, then go to “you’ll never know what to expect from us” Watford and host Leeds in potential last round cracker! They also have problem outside the field, since the transfer of Alejandro Faurlin is under FA investigation and eventually could result in points deduction (Warnock says no way)! Rangers have far best defence in 2nd tier and have kept clean sheet in four of last five games (in fifth Scunny scored four).

I give some advantage to home side, expect a tough game and their win by one. 1-0 correct score.

To play:

Cardiff: Preston(A), ‘Boro(H), Burnley(A)

QPR: Hull(H), Watford(A), Leeds(H)

Norwich: Derby(H), Portsmouth(A), Coventry(H)

Bet: Cardiff -0.25
Odd: 1.95 188bet
Stake: 7/10
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Leeds - Reading

A big pressure on Simon Grayson’s side. They have won just once of last six games, but still occupying the 6th spot. They’re top league scorers (78 goals on total of 42 games and 46 on 21 at home), they have scored on 13 of last 14 home games and 9 of last 11 at Elland Road went in over. This is do or die game for Leeds, another failure would see them below the line. Key defender and skipper, Richard Naylor, could make his first start since October. But, key question is will Luciano Becchio be in the line up. Considering odds movement (raising the prices on home side and goals), he’s out.

Visitors are the absolute hit. Twelve league games without defeat, with eight consecutive wins! Differently from the hosts they won’t feel any pressure since the play-off spot is safe (nine points above the line), but they could see a chance for a direct promotion. They are the third league scorers in total (73 goals on 42 games) and second best on the road (34 goals on 21 games) scored in each of last 13 league games, in nine of those scored twice or more. Striker Noel Hunt is in doubt.

This is the game of great importance, especially for Leeds. Both sides are attacking minded and whoever concedes first won’t give up. I have no clue about the winner, but goals should be a pure logic.

Bet: Over 2.75
Odd: 2.03 Canbet
Stake: 8/10
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Cardiff - Portsmouth

It seems Welsh lads have learnt the lesson from previous years, when in this part of the season were blowing away their promotion chances. They have three wins in a row, with a fourth would come back to the second place. They last five games produced 20 goals and Cardiff have an average of one conceded goal in home games (Pompey’s average is one scored goal per away game). Stephen McPhail is in doubt, Chopra is out. Today’s win would be the first double over Pompey since 1971.

In February and March, Portsmouth made a run of six consecutive wins (without a single goal conceded) and secured a Championship status. After that, just one win of next six encounters. In the previous round, suffered an unexpected defeat at home against Coventry. Playing at Cardiff is always a good motivation, but there won’t be any pressure. Hayden Mullins is out.

I have impression that 1.55 for a home win doesn’t represent the real risk. Expect Pompey to score and to push the game in the over. Goals for me.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.90 Expekt
Stake: 8/10
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Watford - Norwich

Watford have lost three games in a row (‘Boro, Coventry and Hull) and seems already gave up from a play-off spot. They are on my black list, simply they win when nobody wants them to win. And this is game just like that, they have no real motivation, but can play fully relaxed and score. When we talk about scoring, Watford at home have unreal average of 3.2 goals per a game (36-28 goal difference at 20 games). No injury concerns for boss Malky Mackay.

Norwich, on the other hand, are fighting for a direct promotion. They’re second with a point more than Welsh duo Cardiff and Swans. In the previous round, they suffered a heavy defeat at Swans 0-3 and ended a run of nine games without defeat. Interesting fact is, under Paul Lambert (since August 2009), they haven’t made a two defeats in a row. On the other hand, they have bad record against tonight’s hosts. Norwich won just once in last seven occasions (both at home and away) and lost five of them. Midfielder Wes Hoolahan is rated as in doubt.

I expect from Norwich to bounce back and they should be closer to win. And when Watford are losing (same when winning) they do it in series. But, also expect an open game with both sides scoring. Over for me.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.80 various
Stake: 8/10
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Picks for Saturday

Just picks for tomorrow. From the next round, will be regular selections including analyzes.
Btw. with 27% yield and 28.9 units of profit, March is the best month so far this season. Hope trend will continue.
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Premier League
Wolverhampton - Everton (1:45 cet)
Bet: Wolves 0.0
Odd: 1.85 Gamebookers
Stake: 9/10
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Championship
Millwall - Leeds (4:00 cet)
Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 2.02 Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10
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Preston - Coventry

Preston demolished Scunthorpe in the previous round (0-3 away), they’re still far from relegation line (10 points), but they’ll probably give a good try. That win stands alone, but lately North End played against the team from the top. Against Leeds and Burnley lost, but took a draw vs. Norwich, Nott Forest, QPR and Watford. Preston have never lost at Deepdale against City (6 wins of last 7) and have just one defeat in last 13 both at home and away. No injury worries for Phil Brown.

Coventry are in a better position (8 points above the line), but actually facing a free fall since they have just one win out of last 17 games (winless in last six). Manager Boothroyd paid the price for poor results, they have a caretaker Andy Thorn, played a draw at Burnley (2-2) in the midweek, but actually Coventry are the best chance that Preston have to keep their hopes alive. Some important players are sidelined, or in doubt. Striker King is suspended, defender Cranie injured, while another striker Platt and skipper Carsley will have a late fitness test.

This is the first “make or break” game for Preston, they boosted the confidence with impressive display at Scunthorpe and Coventry surely aren’t unbeatable. I expect a tough match, but believe in Phil Brown’s capabilities and predict a home win. 2-1 correct score.

Bet: Preston -0.25
Odd: 2.07 Canbet
Stake: 7/10
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Burnley - Millwall

Burnley under Eddie Howe became the serious play-off candidates, they are 3 points far but have two games in a hand. Since he took the charge, the Clarets have noticed six wins, two draws and only one defeat out of nine league games, have five wins out of last six and three in a row. Strikers Thompson and Paterson are out.

Millwall made a great win over QPR in the midweek, but their shape away from the Den is far from being impressive. They’ve noticed five defeats and a draw in last six games on the road and are winless since the middle of November (‘Boro 1-0). Midfielder Rowlands is back to the squad, but important defender Purse is suspended.

Home side has the best form in Championship, away side the worst on the road. Odd above even is very good price and I have no dilemma. Home win.

Bet: Burnley -0.5
Odd: 2.06 Pinnacle
Stake: 7/10
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Coventry - Hull

Coventry are in a big downtrend as they dropped from 5th place to 18th and could be even involved into relegation battle. They’ve noticed just one win in last 15 matches (Palace at home, 2-1), haven’t kept a clean sheet in last eight and lost last three of four at Ricoh Arena. They also have the worst record against top-half clubs, losing six of eight. Manager Aidy Boothroyd hopes his goalie Westwood will be fit, especially because reserve Ireland is also injured. Striker Marlon King is suspended, another striker Platt will face a late fitness test. Skipper Carsley and defender Turner remain sidelined.

Hull City are actually moving in the opposite direction, they’ve climbed up to 9th  position and still carry the play-off hopes. They’re the best travellers in Championship, haven’t lost in last 13 on the road, including a win in the last away game and ending Forest’s historical home record. They have won half games against bottom-half sides and scored two games in average against the strugglers. Vito Mannone is out and will be replaced by Villa’s on-loan goalie Brad Guzan. 

Great odds on visitors, they’re now raised to 2.20! I predict more misery for Coventry and away win, but dnb option will be absolutely fine. 

Bet: Hull 0.0
Odd: 2.20 188bet
Stake: 8/10
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Preston - Leeds

North End are stuck for the bottom with 10 points below the relegation line and it seems there’s no wonder that could keep them in Championship. They’re 13 games without win in league (6D, 7L) and have won only one of last 21! They also conceded second highest number in league (62 goals in 35 games). Phil Brown has a long row in front the medic. Six players are rated as in doubt. Goalie Lonergan, def Morgan, def Gray, str Ellington, def Cort and mid Nicholson. So, goalie and three defenders in the poorest side in second tier.

Leeds are strong play-off (and promotion, in my opinion) candidates. However, they continue to play with the nerves of their fans, scoring goals for fun but conceding as well. 2-2 and 3-3 at home, then 0-3 at Swans and from 1-0 and 1-2 till 5-2 against Doncaster! They’ve brought midfielder Barry Bannan (till the end of season) from Villa and this lad could have very important role in the team. Leeds have failed to score in only four Championship games out of 35. One more reason for a good display will be first game at Elland where Leeds had 4-1 lead and eventually lost 4-6!

Goals look like an obvious and very popular bet, but it’s more my feeling that Grayson will demand tighter defence and not so open game. After almost every Leeds high scoring game this season, a low scoring one followed. The difference in quality is huge and I expect their safe win (something like 0-2), but took -0.25 line just in case. 

Bet: Leeds -0.25
Odd: 1.78 10bet
Stake: 8/10
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Leicester - Norwich

Leicester did lose at North London against QPR, but actually were the better side and missed two sitters before conceded a late loser. They’re now big five points far from a play-off zone and will be certainly looking for all three points. Interesting fact is they haven’t failed to score at Walkers since SG Eriksson took the charge, 13 games and total of 30 goals! No injury worries, same squad is available.

Norwich have noticed only a draw against poor Preston side, mainly because their relaxed attitude (in previous at home, also drew against another poor side Doncaster). They’re in much better position than the hosts, but missed the opportunity to occupy second spot. They also have an interesting fact and it is Norwich have never made two consecutive defeats under Paul Lambert (88 games)! If we consider 1-1 against Preston as a defeat (I think it’s fair), their good performance is in front. Also, only QPR took more points on the road, they have scored in 10 of last 11 away games (in 31 of 35, both at home and away).Defender Whitbread is doubt, Edwards could make a first start and replace him.

Leicester are probably closer to win, but I think goals would be a better call. First game on Carrow Road ended 4-3, this one also smells on high scoring affair. Both to score should be the second option.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.96 188bet
Stake: 8/10
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Leeds - Doncaster

Leeds are holding a play-off spot, but haven’t won in last three games. They suffered 3-0 defeat at Swans, but played pretty well actually and were unlucky to stay empty handed (referee’s mistakes unlucky). They’re top scorers in Championship with 62 goals (conceded 55), while their 17 games at Elland have produced 64 goals (3.76 in average)! Johnson returns after suspension,  Connolly remains sidelined, Lloyd Sam is struggling with a virus.

After a horrible run of results, Donny’s injury list started to decrease and results have been improving. They’re undefeated in last three and are boosted with midweek away win at Derby. At that game, playmaker Stock and finisher Sharp (two goals) returned to the team. Donny’s 17 games on the road have produced 60 goals (3.53 average) and they’ve kept just one clean sheet!

Leeds are certainly the favourites here, but not sure does it worth at 1.65. On the other hand their attacking attitude and Donny’s passing style should guarantee an entertaining afternoon at Elland Road. Backed with strong statistical data, I think there shouldn’t be a room for mistake. I’m on goals.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.70 Expekt
Stake: 8/10
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QPR - Leicester (preview)

QPR are topping the table and it seems with Neil Warnock as a manager they got what they needed for promotion. Defence line looks much better than in previous seasons and it is the best in second tier with just 20 goals conceded. They also have noticed just one home defeat of 17 games (11 wins) and they’re in the run of 10 games without a loss. Tommy Smith should start from the bench, but Taarabt and Routledge should be fit (considering odds free fall).

Since SG Eriksson took the charge, Leicester started to look much better and they became with climbing on the table. They’re 7th with just two points far from a play-off zone. However, their away shape doesn’t look so impressive. They’ve lost 10 of 17 games on the road and all five against current top 5 in Championship. Chelsea’s on-loan defender, Patrick van Aanholt, is out.

QPR are better squad, play at home and cope much better with the pressure of big games. In my opinion they should be favorites. 2-0 correct score.

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Sheff Utd - Derby

The Blades find themselves in a deep mud at 23rd place which is, at least for me, completely unexpected. Micky Adams is their fourth manager this season(!) and they’re without a win in 12 games. United lost their midweek six pointer at Scunthorpe on a shocking way after they had 2-0 lead. Adams’ storming after the game is probably a (final) try to wake up the squad and Derby should be the best possible opportunity for three points. 

The Rams are facing the plenty of problems on and off the pitch and are in a free fall. They are winless in last eight games losing five of them and haven’t scored in last three. Defender Roberts and midfielder Bailey are in doubt, while striker Jammie Ward cannot play against his parent club. But real trouble is a place goalkeeper. Stephen Bywater is out, as well as his substitution Saul Deeney (shoulder), so young Frank Fielding will step in and face lots of pressure. Derby are winless in last four meetings with the Blades (both home and away), losing three of them.

After stayed empty handed at Scunny, this is definitely make or break for United. Another defeat would likely send them in League One. I think they’ll have enough to pass the visitors, but wouldn’t exclude the possibility of a draw and take -0.25 at very nice odd.

Bet: Sheff Utd
Odd: 2.00 Stan James
Stake: 7/10
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