Blackburn - Fulham

Rovers survived a hell in Manchester in last round (City, 1-1) and now have a chance for 3 points. In first four rounds they collected only 4 points, but seems their performance are better that results. Both defeats came after good displays (1-2 away to Birmingham after 1-0 lead and Arsenal 1-2, at home). Their style remains the same, long-balls and bullying attitude which made a great home record. Only 5 defeats in last 32 home games under Sam Allardyce! Big boost should be a return of skipper Ryan Nelsen in the center of defense, while right-back Michel Salgado is in doubt after thigh injury against Man City. Blackburn won 4 and drew 1 of last 5 against Fulham at Ewood Park.

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Mark Hughes at his new job still hasn’t felt a taste of defeat with one win and 3 draws. However, Fulham are poor travelers through the seasons. In previous one, they made terrible record of just one win (and 7 draws) of 19 games! In comparison with that season, they lost excellent Chris Smalling (Man Utd), another key defender Konchesky (L’pool) and of course boss Hodgson, but biggest loss is Zamora who broke the leg vs. Wolves (predicted absence is 5 months). I don’t expect too much from them this season and see Fulham lower than last season’s 12th position. Hughes has lots of problems with injured players. Defenders, Halliche and Stoor, have injuries and are in doubt, while absence of Andrew Johnson limits the options in attack. Fulham haven’t won a league game on the road since August 2009 (20 games) and didn’t score in last 11!

 

My only concern here is Blackburn’s attacking potential and am taking -0.25 instead clear win. Despite recent goals, I’m not so impressed with young duo, Kalinic and Diouf. And most of the team goals come after set-pieces. However, I expect a home win with a clean sheet. 1-0, or 2-0.

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Bet: Blackburn -0.25
Odd: 1.77  bet365
Stake: 9/10

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Liverpool - Blackburn

Liverpool started to raise their shape in correct time as they’ve approached to the final third of the season. The fact is 4th place would save the season as it wasn’t achieved more than that in previous campaigns. Otherwise, club would see a departure of Torres and probably Gerrard. However, they’re four points behind 4th Man.City and have to collect points in games like today’s. Good thing is Gerrard has been returning his shape which means all team plays for about 25% percents better. Rafa faces defensive problems as Skrtel suffered a broken metatarsal in EL, Kyrgiakos remains suspended and Johnson just started with light training. Carragher will return to his natural position in the center of defense, while Rafa will give a chance to Degen or youngster Martin Kelly on right back. The Reds like to play against Blackburn. They have lost only once to Rovers in their last 22 league meetings and only once at Anfield in last 15 games. 

Blackburn hold 12th place on the table, with ten points margin from relegation zone and it seems Big Sam has making an excellent job with, I think it is fair to say, limited squad. They look comfortable, but only thankfully to their record at home where they’ve collected 28 of total 34 points. On the road, they’re defending trying to keep 0-0, but it has only resulted with 8 scored goals (31 conceded) in 13 games! At the same time, their away record against top Premier sides looks more than discouraging. Arsenal (2-6), Chelsea (0-5), Man.Utd. (0-2), Everton (0-3), Man.City (1-4), Aston Villa (1-3, 4-6)! In last two visits two Anfield, they conceded seven goals in total (0-4, 1-3). Also, defense line will miss the skipper Ryan Nelsen. Chris Samba returns after a ban, while Dunn, Basturk, Di Santo and Reid played a midweek reserve game and will appear.

Liverpool desperately need three points and there’s no space for any kind of relaxation. It’s too big stake. They perform much better and consistent than before a month, for example and I expect a confident performance. On the other hand, Rovers feel comfortable in the middle of the table and possible defeat at Anfield wouldn’t be a disaster. I expect little less defensive formation from Allardyce than usual and few goals conceded. Liverpool win with -1.5 handicap.

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South Africa - New Zealand

Rainbow Nation is under a cloud. Team is feeling the pressure after failing to qualify for the Africa Cup of Nations for the first time since the end of apartheid. They were playing WC qualifications, but results counted only for Cup of Nations, because Bafana Bafana directly qualified for World Championship as the host country. Only six points from seven games in group made a negative atmosphere in the country. Now, qualification for the semi-finals on Confederations Cup is the minimum target. Defence-minded coach Joel Santana is unpopular with the media, while two very important players, Benny McCarthy and Nasief Morris are moved from the squad ‘cause arguing with Santana. The hosts took only a point from Iraq game and Santana is accused again for defensive tactic against outsiders. Another draw would put them in the clueless position, facing the prospect of having to beat Spain to reach the semi-finals. Steven Pienaar is expected to start and to add some much-needed creativity to the side. Skipper Aaron Mokoena should recover from a shin problem.

New Zealand was considered as the weakest team on the competition, even before it started. Opening game didn’t change that impression. The All Whites are winless in their last six matches, with five defeats and one draw (Botswana, 0-0 on the road). They have lost all seven of their Confederations Cup games, scoring two goals and conceding 22. Coach Ricki Herbert says his side has a "burning desire" to win at least their first point in the finals of one Fifa competition. In the previous game, against Spain, squad managed to concede four goals for 24 minutes! Fortunately, Spanish side was satisfied with that, otherwise would be a real shame. The biggest problem for New Zealand is they used to play against teams like Thailand, Fiji, or New Caledonia. They planed to attack Spain(!?), before that in friendly scored three times against Italy (defeat 3-4), simply haven’t learnt to respect stronger. I expect from them attacking attitude, again. The main problem will be the “rusty” defence line, this time even weaker, without the skipper Ryan Nelsen.

South Africa is a big favorite (again). Santana will try to balance between his understanding of football logic and fans’ expectations about the first eleven. Usually, it means a big problem. They will attack, but New Zealand won’t defend. My choice is goals, before home win. Sunderlands offer 1.95, Expekt and the others 1.75. Over.

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