Premier League betting, Blackburn - QPR 11th Feb

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Not so good situation in Blackburn at all. Kean is under the fans protest and club not just they didn’t bring new players, but sold Ryan Nelsen to Spurs. Samba’s behaviour is critical and he’s out for this game (at least), while Gael Givet starts a three-match ban. That’s three important defenders and Rovers will be certainly struggling in the back line. Good thing is Yakubu is back.

Thankfully to better financial situation, QPR brought some experience and now look like a serious squad. I’m pretty sure they’ll stay. After an act of madness Cisse will miss out, as well as Helguson and DJ Campbell. But no worries in front, Zamora will take care of it with Taarabt as support. Only miss will be Luke Young at right-back.

Nine of 12 games at Ewood this season, finished with three or more goals (five out of last six). Same produced three of Hughes’ four games in QPR. Think Blackburn can’t keep it tight and both sides must fancy their chances. Goals, rather than QPR.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.94 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 9/10

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Blackburn - Stoke

Not long time ago, he was talking how he deserves to lead some of the biggest European clubs. Now Big Sam has an opportunity to look for a better job. Seriously, by sacking Allardyce Indian owners showed the serious lack of the sense. Beside he was widely respected in the club, December with full schedule is probably the worst time to try finding a new manager. And I’m not really sure what they expect from only decent players. Spot for Europe? However, caretaker Steve Kean has become a manager (at least) till the end of the season. Skipper, Chris Samba, is out. Officially because the ankle knock, but there’re some rumours he refuses to play (‘cause the ex-manager).

Stoke are not a kind of good travellers, but recent situation has increased their chances at Ewood. Investments during the summer provided new quality to the squad and I expected more from them this season. Shocking defeat at home vs. Blackpool ended a run of six games without defeat. They look very good in the air and missing of Samba could give them supremacy after the set-pieces.

I think odds have been set wrong, here. 3.50 for away win is clear underestimating in my opinion. I expect a tough battle and can’t really see home win. Some advantage to Stoke, 1-2 correct score. C'mon you red-whites!

Bet: Stoke +0.25
Odd: 1.91 Expekt
Stake: 8/10

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Blackburn - Fulham

Rovers survived a hell in Manchester in last round (City, 1-1) and now have a chance for 3 points. In first four rounds they collected only 4 points, but seems their performance are better that results. Both defeats came after good displays (1-2 away to Birmingham after 1-0 lead and Arsenal 1-2, at home). Their style remains the same, long-balls and bullying attitude which made a great home record. Only 5 defeats in last 32 home games under Sam Allardyce! Big boost should be a return of skipper Ryan Nelsen in the center of defense, while right-back Michel Salgado is in doubt after thigh injury against Man City. Blackburn won 4 and drew 1 of last 5 against Fulham at Ewood Park.

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Mark Hughes at his new job still hasn’t felt a taste of defeat with one win and 3 draws. However, Fulham are poor travelers through the seasons. In previous one, they made terrible record of just one win (and 7 draws) of 19 games! In comparison with that season, they lost excellent Chris Smalling (Man Utd), another key defender Konchesky (L’pool) and of course boss Hodgson, but biggest loss is Zamora who broke the leg vs. Wolves (predicted absence is 5 months). I don’t expect too much from them this season and see Fulham lower than last season’s 12th position. Hughes has lots of problems with injured players. Defenders, Halliche and Stoor, have injuries and are in doubt, while absence of Andrew Johnson limits the options in attack. Fulham haven’t won a league game on the road since August 2009 (20 games) and didn’t score in last 11!

 

My only concern here is Blackburn’s attacking potential and am taking -0.25 instead clear win. Despite recent goals, I’m not so impressed with young duo, Kalinic and Diouf. And most of the team goals come after set-pieces. However, I expect a home win with a clean sheet. 1-0, or 2-0.

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Bet: Blackburn -0.25
Odd: 1.77  bet365
Stake: 9/10

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Blackburn 0-1 Aston Villa

Aston Villa took a giant stride towards Wembley as James Milner's first-half winner gave them victory in the Carling Cup semi-final first leg at Blackburn Rovers.
Milner rounded off a devastating break after 23 minutes when he turned in Stewart Downing's cross as Villa swept the length of the field. 
It gave Martin O'Neill side a deserved advantage and provided a rich reward for Villa's attacking strategy as they dominated a jaded Blackburn side playing their second game this week. 
Blackburn boss Sam Allardyce felt the full force of Ewood Park's fury as his side laboured to make any impression on Villa in the early exchanges, with the half-time whistle being greeted by a chorus of jeering. 
But Blackburn improved hugely after the break only to find their luck was out as striker Nikola Kalinic twice hit the woodwork, firstly with a close-range header, then with a shot from 12 yards. 
Villa always carried the greater threat and will now be firm favourites to progress to a Carling Cup final date against either Manchester City or Manchester United, after next week's second leg at Villa Park. 
Blackburn's winless sequence now stretches to 12 games, although they did knock Chelsea out of this competition on penalties. 
And it is hard to see how they will turn this semi-final around on the evidence of current form. 
That would leave Allardyce and Blackburn with a fight for Premier League survival as their only goal for the rest of the season, a task to be played out in front of what appears to be an increasingly disenchanted Ewood Park public.
Allardyce employed Kalinic as a lone striker from the start - but he was knocking at a firmly closed door for long periods as he attempted to get the better of Villa's central defensive duo, Richard Dunne and James Collins.

www.bbc.co.uk

Blackburn Rovers - Aston Villa

Rovers are in a winless run of eleven competitive games. Unofficially, Sam Allardyce got two more games to improve the things. First of them comes tonight against Villa and progress to Wembley could erase all the errors. First problem is Big Sam almost lost all support from the fans and players as well. His 4-5-1 formation, even at home, hasn’t brought too much good. Fans think team shouldn’t look such defensive at home, while even players don’t seem too much interested to change something. In my opinion there’s much bigger chance to Allardyce face the exit door after few more failures than to improve anything. Next obstacle for improvement is injury list that consist some very important players. Midfielder Grella and forward Roberts are ruled out, while striker Benni McCarthy and defender Givet remain doubtful. Also, key striker El-Hadji Diouf is absent through the suspension. This will be the second game this week, while third at Sunday when they’ll host Fulham is probably most imported. On all of this should be added bad mutual score against Villa, Rovers won just once in last eight games (draw also once and lost other six).

 

Aston Villa is in much better position than tonight’s opponent. They bounced back after two consecutive defeats in Premier (Arsenal away 0-3 and Liverpool at home 0-1) with a win against Blackburn in FA Cup (3-1 at Villa Park). That win should also bring some psychological advantage for tonight’s clash. Despite it is a Carling Cup, progress will bring a ticket to Wembley and unique chance for winning some trophy. In Premier League Villa look secure. With M.City, Tottenham and maybe even Liverpool, Champions League will remain just as dream. But, place for Uefa League is reachable, looks not so hard to achieve and they have a space to focus on this competition. This should mean the best team at Ewood tonight as O’Neill has confirmed. James Milner and Luke Young are both expected to recover from injury and both are set to be named in the squad. Only concern is defender Curtis Davies who remains on the sidelines due a lack of match fitness after recovering from a dislocated shoulder. Goalie Brad Guzan likely to continue his run of cup appearances in place of regular number one Brad Friedel.

 

Tonight, much more will depend from Villa than from Blackburn. Final at Wembley will surely be the guarantor for Rovers’ full motivation and effort. Problem for them is this also applies to the lads on the other side of the pitch. In my opinion visitors are favorites here, but the fact re-match will be played at their own ground makes from a scoring draw decent result. Considering all that I wrote, see dnb as a very good option for this game. Clear away win, however, remains as a gamble (2.47 at Pinnacle).

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Carling Cup

Blackburn 3-3 Chelsea

Blackburn dumped Chelsea out of the Carling Cup in a penalty shoot-out to set up a semi-final with Aston Villa.
Nikola Kalinic put Rovers ahead from six yards before a header from substitute Didier Drogba and Salomon Kalou's finish sent Chelsea in front. 
Hilario failed to deal with a deflected Brett Emerton cross and Benni McCarthy scored a penalty, but Paulo Ferreira levelled at 3-3 deep into extra-time. 
Gael Kakuta missed the crucial spot kick as Rovers won the shoot-out 4-3. 
The 18-year-old Kakuta, who Chelsea controversially signed from Lens, struck the ball straight at Paul Robinson, who had earlier sensationally tipped Michael Ballack's spot kick on to the post. 
Premier League leaders Chelsea went into the tie unbeaten in nine games while Carlo Ancelotti's team had not conceded in their previous four matches. 
But the Italian will not be winning the Carling Cup in his first season in English football after his team produced a largely below-par performance at Ewood Park.
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Man City 3-0 Arsenal

Manchester City deservedly sealed a place in the Carling Cup semi-final against arch-rivals Manchester United after beating a youthful Arsenal side at vibrant Eastlands.
Carlos Tevez's spectacular strike five minutes after half-time put City on the path into the last four and a stunning angled drive from Shaun Wright-Phillips sealed the victory for Mark Hughes' side. 
Substitute Vladimir Weiss wrapped up City's triumph with an emphatic finish a minute from time and rounded off a miserable night for Arsenal and manager Arsene Wenger. 
City had the better of an encounter that failed to touch the heights - but their jubilant fans were in no mood to complain as they celebrated a win that moves them a step closer to a first Wembley cup final in 28 years.
For Arsenal boss Wenger, it was more disappointment as his traditionally revamped Carling Cup side crashed to defeat just days after his more familiar line-up was dismantled by Chelsea at the Emirates. 
And his disappointment was demonstrated when he pointedly refused to shake hands with opposite number Hughes at the final whistle - an action that left the City boss accusing his Arsenal counterpart of being ungracious in defeat. 
Wenger, without a trophy since the FA Cup win against Manchester United in Cardiff in 2005, saw his much-heralded youngsters eventually overpowered by City as the opportunity to advance to a major final was sacrificed in favour of giving experience to his emerging talent.
www.bbc.co.uk

Everton - Middlesbrough, FA Cup

In the previous rounds Everton eliminated Liverpool and Aston Villa, so their dedication to Cup competition is not questionable. Just one defeat in last 16(!) games, against Man.Utd. away 0:1. In the league they're safe for Europe, but a weekend draw against Blackburn on Ewwod Park was a step behind for Champions League Qualification. Jo can't play in cup, but Luis Saha seems fit and he's expected from the start so and Fellaini. Only Hibert is in doubt.

Boro holds shaming 19th place in Premier. Surprising victory against Liverpool gave a faith, but disaster on White Heart Lane push the truth on the surface. And the truth is they simply don't have enough quality for Premier. Plus leadership and quality of Gareth Southgate is more appropriate to some lower division team, maybe conference. Anyway, they have bigger worries than cup quarter-final. Only concern is to avoid another disaster. No injuries, but same as yesterday, does it really matter?

Everton can focus on FA Cup and they're simply much better team. Expect another furious performance by David Moyes lads. Beside home win, odd for home handicap looks sweet.