Brazil betting, two value bets 12 Oct

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Bahia - Cruzeiro, Bahia -0.25 @ 2.15 (bet365)

Bahia have three straight home wins, Cruzeiro three straight defeats on the road. The hosts also stayed undefeated at the hands of Botafogo in previous round which should be a decent morale boost. My only concern is their previous meetings that saw Botafogo winning last four (both home and away) and at the same place they won last time 7-0. But, at this price it’s a decent value on Bahia.

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Bet: Bahia -0.25
Odd: 2.15 (Bet365)
Stake: 2/10
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Corinthians - Botafogo, Corinthians -0.5 @ 1.88 (Ladbrokes)

Corinthians are the first with great home record 10W-1D-3D. Botafogo are fifth, but it seems they’re in some kind of downtrend. Winless in last three (one win of last six in league), in the previous round played only a draw against Bahia. Nothing much to say, in my opinion this is a good price for a home win.

Bet: Corinthians
Odd: 1.88 (Ladbrokes)
Stake: 2/10
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Brazil result

Santos 3 - 1 Corinthians

1 - 0 C.d.L.P. Henrique  16. min.
2 - 0 C.d.L.P. Henrique  29. min.
2 - 1 D.A.C.J. Renato  50 min.
         L.M.M.d.R. Lulinha  66. min. red card-Corinthians
3 - 1 F.C.M. Micao  89.min.

Worthless Sunday

Lille were playing with the nerves, managed at the end to concede twice and ruin the handicap. I have been digging in today's games and couldn't find too many pointers. In Italy, Torino play without 9 players, home win drop from 2.15 to 1.70. It can be a clear home win, but also can be a  game for the bookies. No bet for me.

In Spain Osasuna host Real Madrid as a clear favorite!? 1.70 for a home win! Real's players are already on holiday, four defeats in a row, 15 goals conceded! Osasuna defeated Barca at Camp Nou and I can't find a logic to loose today and relegate. Barca don't care about league games, why should Real? Transfer market? Don't think so. Home win is probable, but I've already burnt my fingers on Spain and Osasuna. My opinion about Primera is the same as opinion about Puyol's two reactions in CL final (duels with Ronaldo and Van der Sar). No bet. 

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Brazil 1

Santos - Corinthians

Only bet for Sunday. Brazil's big derby. The Corinthians' boss announced yesterday that he'll rest some of 11 main players, thinking only about the second and decisive match against Vasco in the Brazil Cup (1-1 first game away). Bookies reacted quickly and decrease the odds. On the other side, Santos look in a nice shape, trashing Fluminense in the last round at Maracana 4-1. Play attacking, scored eight goals in the first three games. I don't believe in that "rest best players in derby games" stories and go for goals, instead the home win. Pinnacle offers nice 2.00. Over.

That's it. Will be back tomorrow with Norway and Iceland.

Cheers.

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