Worthless Sunday

Lille were playing with the nerves, managed at the end to concede twice and ruin the handicap. I have been digging in today's games and couldn't find too many pointers. In Italy, Torino play without 9 players, home win drop from 2.15 to 1.70. It can be a clear home win, but also can be a  game for the bookies. No bet for me.

In Spain Osasuna host Real Madrid as a clear favorite!? 1.70 for a home win! Real's players are already on holiday, four defeats in a row, 15 goals conceded! Osasuna defeated Barca at Camp Nou and I can't find a logic to loose today and relegate. Barca don't care about league games, why should Real? Transfer market? Don't think so. Home win is probable, but I've already burnt my fingers on Spain and Osasuna. My opinion about Primera is the same as opinion about Puyol's two reactions in CL final (duels with Ronaldo and Van der Sar). No bet. 

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Brazil 1

Santos - Corinthians

Only bet for Sunday. Brazil's big derby. The Corinthians' boss announced yesterday that he'll rest some of 11 main players, thinking only about the second and decisive match against Vasco in the Brazil Cup (1-1 first game away). Bookies reacted quickly and decrease the odds. On the other side, Santos look in a nice shape, trashing Fluminense in the last round at Maracana 4-1. Play attacking, scored eight goals in the first three games. I don't believe in that "rest best players in derby games" stories and go for goals, instead the home win. Pinnacle offers nice 2.00. Over.

That's it. Will be back tomorrow with Norway and Iceland.

Cheers.

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A quick view on Monday

I stay behind my words and still think it was about the pride (Barcelona-Osasuna). Real M lost at home too, against Mallorca (1-3), but they weren't my concern. Both giants got a lesson from dignity from English four. Man.Utd., Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal, although they didn't need the points, won their games and finish the season with a style. That's why Primera never will be Premier.

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Final at Wembley starts at 4pm. Burnley and Sheffield United contest a £60million winner-takes-all showdown for a place in the Premier League, in the richest club game in world football. The Clarets have full squad available, while Blades have a few injury concerns with doubts over Darius Henderson (Achilles), Jamie Ward (hamstring) and John-Joe O'Toole (ankle). Bookmakers learnt from their mistakes and this time don't underestimate Burnley, offering about 2.60 for their win (against Reading on the road, odds were about 4.70). United is the most consistent team in Championship, Burnley is mentally the strongest. Once again, I give a small advantage to Burnley and follow my instinct with a gamble bet. 888sport offers 2.70. Burnley to win.

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Barcelona 0-1 Osasuna

Barcelona suffered a home defeat to Osasuna in their last match before their Champions League final against Man United.
Uruguayan striker Walter Pandiani headed the only goal of the game from a first-half corner to boost the Pamplona side's chances of Primera Division survival and subject Pep Guardiola's side to only their second home defeat in the league this season.
Youngster Marc Muniesa was controversially sent off late on as the home side - containing a number of fringe players - finished the game with 10 men, and Guardiola was also dismissed for his protests.
Barcelona sealed the league title last Saturday as fierce rivals Real Madrid lost at Villarreal and that allowed Guardiola to field a number of second-string players against Mallorca the following day.
And with the chance to win an historic treble - with Barcelona having also won the Copa del Rey 10 days ago - just four days after this match, Guardiola once again named a severely weakened team for the visit of Osasuna.
Despite their win, Osasuna remain in the relegation zone and must now take something from the game at home to Madrid next weekend.
For Barca, meanwhile, it was a second defeat in the space of a week, but the Catalans celebrated their league and cup successes on the pitch after the match and will now look ahead - with a very different team - to Wednesday's Champions League final in Rome.Of the 11 likely starters on Wednesday, only Samuel Eto'o and Sylvinho began this match.
www.espnstar.com

Barcelona - Osasuna

I’m little confused with these odds for Barca. So, bookies predict:1. Barca doesn’t need points, Osasuna does, 2. Barca will travel to Rome for the most important game this season and 2a will play with a reserve team, 2b will think about United instead Osasuna, 3. Barca is in bad shape in Primera and has no reason to improve it now. My prediction is different, but let’s start in the order. In the previous week, Barca won two titles, Primera and cup. In league they have two games without a win. First Villarreal equalized in the last minute of additional time, for 3-3 at Camp Nou. Then, after the cup final, lads traveled to island, to face Mallorca. Guardiola gave a chance to some youngsters and hosts won 2-1. Tonight will be more about the pride, than about points. This is the last game in front their fans and they won’t allow to bad performance and negative result put the shadow on entire season. And I really don’t think (does anybody?) that Barca will play with the name, let the visitors to take a point or three and start the rumors about the setting the game up! Can’t imagine. Guardiola will send the best eleven on the pitch. Some of the magicians missed Mallorca and another missing game would mean possible drop in shape. Additional thing, in the run for the best goal scorer, Samuel Eto’o has just one goal more than Forlan, will try to add more goals on his account.

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Before a month and a half, Osasuna made a magnificent display against Atletico Madrid, on the road, trashing them 4-2! Seven days later, Athletic Bilbao was beaten at home ground 2-1 and then nobody could see the dark clouds. But, after that, Osasuna made a run of six games without a win, four defeats and two goalless draws (last one was hardly fought against Sevilla at home 0-0, in the previous round), founding themselves at 17th place with the same number of points like “first under the line” Real Sporting (and two more than Numancia). Sporting will face safe Valladolid on the road and in the last round will host hopeless Recreativo Huelva. Meanwhile, Osasuna will visit Barca and host Real Madrid! So, I guess, they need at least three points! Everybody in Pamplona is wondering how this is happened. From my point of view, I don’t care, they deserve to relegate and don’t feel sorry for them. They won Atletico, scoring four goals in Madrid, but defeated against (in order) Almeria, Malaga, Recreativo Huelva and Getafe, after that. Now, Camacho has two choices, to attack at Camp Nou (kamikaze tactic), or to defend and try to keep the net. Chelsea did it, why Osasuna can not?! Exactly. Nice trip to Secunda.

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Again Real in Madrid, Guardiola didn’t rest anybody, despite Chelsea was on the corner. These two games are not on the same level, but I expect from him to do the same thing. Anyway, even the reserve team would be capable to beat Osasuna with two goals difference. Full crowds will wish a nice trip to lads and a good luck against United. For me, anything other than home win with two or more goals difference would be a first class surprise. Best odd offers Expekt, 2.05. As one friend of mine says: "Hit 'em where it hurts!". Home win.

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