Slovenia - Northern Ireland

Slovenia is a decent side. They proved themselves in previous qualifications and in South Africa. Some talented players (Novakovic, Dedic, Koren…), but personally I’m well surprised with their tactical discipline during the game. Their raiting has raised from 79^th Fifa place to 19^th. In last five home games, they won 4 (N.Zealand, Qatar, Russia and San Marino) and drew one (Czech Republic). Only absentee is defender Marko Suler.

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Ireland made few very good campaigns, but always stayed short eventually. They were playing friendlies lately, lost all 5 and didn’t score in last 7! However, they made 2 decent results and two draws against Czech 0-0 and Poland 1-1. In group with Italy, Serbia, Estonia, Slovenia and Faroe Islands, I rate them as 4^th and really can’t see N.Ireland progressing. No significant missings.

 

Slovenia plays really well in Maribor and considering the group rivals (Italy and Serbia) and the fact next game is in Belgrade, this one they have to win. 2-0 correct score.

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Bet: Slovenia -1ah  
Odd: 2.07  Pinnacle
Stake: 7/10
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Slovenia 1-0 Russia

Slovenia beat Russia 1-0 in the second leg of their play-off at the Petrol Arena to dump Guus Hiddink's side out of the 2010 World Cup and seal their progression to South Africa.
Matjaz Kek's side, who are ranked 49th in the world, sealed their place in the finals after Zlatko Dedic (pictured) netted the game's solitary goal in the 44th minute.
The compact ground provided a vociferous atmosphere and helped Slovenia subdue their opponents early on before Russia lost their composure in the second half with two men sent off.
Hiddink's side looked devoid of ideas in attack as Slovenia defended stoutly in front of their fervent supporters and substitute Alexander Kerzhakov's needless red card in the second half epitomised Russia's frustration.
To compound the issue, Yuri Zhirkov received a second yellow card for a bizarre push on a Slovenia substitute warming up on the touchline as Russia's World Cup dreams were shattered.
http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com

Slovenia – Russia

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Before the first round of play-off, Slovenia was the biggest outsider. In Moscow played defensively, they were absolutely outplayed, but score a goal for acceptable 1-2 defeat and even had a chance for a draw. They were complaining about artificial grass and low temperature, but it was obvious they were so close to suffer a disaster. In Maribor (12 000 people will attend, no big home support), same eleven will play. All players sound optimistic, pointing the fact one goal could lead them to South Africa.

 

Russians lost the race in group against Germany and had to appear in play-off. In first game were dominating, scored twice and have some opportunities for more convincing victory, but conceded an unlucky goal. Despite the not so good result, Russia showed they possess much more quality. In Maribor the stake will be a ticket to World Cup, won’t be any relaxation in attitude. No problems with missing players.

 

I think there is no better man for a game such like this than Guus Hiddink. In situation where Slovenia has to attack, players like Arshavin and Zhirkov (on the flanks), Billyaletdinov and Roman Pavlyuchenko will have much more space. I expect even easier job for Russians than in Moscow. Pinnacle offer 2.31. Away win.

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Thursday after the storm

My internet connection collapsed the previous night. Sorry for late posts today.

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Russia was more convincing than anybody expected. The hosts didn't have a chance. Norway had a single effort (that Stekelenburg saved) for entire game. Again I had a good analyze, but bad conclusion. Argentinian stars, as I expected, couldn't breath in Quito and Ecuador realized my gamble. Interesting day at the end and some profit.

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Will follow one friend with Italian play-off game Brescia-Empoli. In case of draw, Brescia will progress, 'cause better table standings at the end of league. 188sports offers 2.30, Pinnacle 2.28. Treat it like a gamble. Home win.

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For basketball fans, great game tonight in Spain. Final:Tau Ceramica - Regal FC Barcelona. I haven't even considered to bet on it.

Tomorrow will be some interesting games. Stay tuned.

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Finland 0-3 Russia

There was more tactical mastery from Guus Hiddink tonight as he steered Russia to a 3-0 thumping of Finland.
Andrei Arshavin captained the exceptionally well behaved Russians to victory, while ex-Liverpool and Finnish skipper Sami Hyypia could not prevent his side from picking up three yellow cards.
Dynamo Moscow forward Aleksandr Kerzhakov bagged himself a double in Helsinki, opening the scoring on 26 minutes thus giving the visitors the advantage before the break.
Kerzhakov netted his second soon after the restart, with Konstantin Zyryanov tying the game up with a goal 20 minutes from time.
The win brings Russia's point tally to 15, stamping authority on the second place spot in Group 4 and moving to just a single point behind group leaders Germany.
http://sports.yahoo.com

Finland - Russia

Sounds shocking, but Finland has never qualified for European, or World Championship. In some previous campaigns, they were putting a solid displays, but always needed a point, or two. On the road to South Africa, they hold a third place in group 4, with two points less than the next opponent – Russia and six less from the leaders – Germany. They’re undefeated at home, two wins (Azerbaijan 1-0 and Liechtenstein 2-1) and a draw (Germany 3-3). Saturday’s game against Lilliputian showed their weaknesses. Finland hardly won, scored twice and turned the result. They look like out of shape. Play is without any idea and win came as result of pure experience. Also, some very important players, Petri Pasanen, Teemu Tainio and Shefki Kuqi, got injuries. National coach Stuart Baxter hides the cards, but it is expected Kuqi won’t play. It means Mikael Forssell and veteran Jari Litmanen will make the attack duo. With three points, Finland would skip Russia on the table.

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After he finished with a style his mission in Chelsea, Hiddink is back to Russia. They’re at second place with four points less (and a game less) than Germany. After 1-2 defeat in Germany, Russia made three consecutive wins, without a conceded goal (Finland 3-0, Azerbaijan 2-0, Liechtenstein 1-0). Young play-maker Alan Dzagoev won’t play, Pavel Pogrebnyak is in doubt, while Aldonin, Kerzhakov and Bystrov are returning after one game break. Guus Hiddink made some comments to Finnish media, pointing to the fact that Russia might settle for a draw. In that case will be at three points distance from Germany and will face them in Moscow. I think he was more polite and tactical, then serious. Holding a draw in Helsinki, when home side has Forssell (excellent head play) and Litmanen (maybe old, but still free-kick specialist) can turn the game into nightmare and dropping on third place. I can’t imagine Russia to loose here and can’t imagine they won’t qualify for WC. Expect from them to secure the goal first and in the second half to go for victory.

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The bookmakers offer low 1.80 for an away win, pointing Finland’s game vs Liechtenstein, but forgetting, at the same time, the game against Germany who avoided the defeat just thankfully to Klose. However, I think Russia simply has much more quality and Baxter can’t surprise Hiddink. Despite the lower odds (1.80 at Expekt) I go on away win. And a gamble x-2, ht/ft.

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My second bet will be Netherlands-Norway, over. And still think about Ecuador against Argentina. Maybe one more analyze, later.

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Chelsea 2-1 Everton

A stunning Frank Lampard strike ended Everton's resistance and ensured Chelsea's interim boss Guus Hiddink brought the curtain down on his brief spell in English football by collecting the FA Cup.
The Toffees had made a dream start when Louis Saha put them ahead after just 25 seconds - the quickest goal in Cup final history. 
But Chelsea came back strongly and equalised through Didier Drogba's header before Lampard fired home the winner from 25 yards with 18 minutes left. 
The margin of victory should have been greater as TV replays showed that Florent Malouda's spectacular strike moments later had crossed the line after bouncing down off the bar, but referee Howard Webb did not give the goal. 
In the end it made no difference to Chelsea, or Hiddink, who deservedly has a trophy to show for the impressive work he has done at Stamford Bridge as he returns to his job with Russia. 
Victory at a sweltering Wembley brings to an end the Dutchman's brief love affair with the Blues, which began when he watched from the stands as they beat Watford in the fifth round on Valentine's Day. 
And his side again demonstrated the patience and power he has instilled them as they fought back to overhaul a dogged Everton side that took the lead with a terrific early strike.

Chelsea: Cech, Bosingwa, Alex, Terry, Ashley Cole, Essien (Ballack 61), Mikel, Lampard, Anelka, Drogba, Malouda. 
Subs Not Used: Hilario, Ivanovic, Di Santo, Kalou, Belletti, Mancienne. 
Booked: Mikel, Lampard. 
Goals: Drogba 21, Lampard 72. 

Everton: Howard, Hibbert (Jacobsen 46), Yobo, Lescott, Baines, Osman (Gosling 82), Neville, Pienaar, Cahill, Fellaini, Saha (Vaughan 77). 
Subs Not Used: Nash, Castillo, Rodwell, Baxter. 
Booked: Hibbert, Neville, Baines. 
Goals: Saha 1. 

Att: 89,391. 
Ref: Howard Webb (S Yorkshire).
www.bbc.co.uk

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Lille 3 - 2 Nancy

1 - 0 R. Vittek  12. min.
2 - 0 A. Rami  15. min.
2 - 1 A. Ouaddou  42. min.
2 - 2 Y. Hadji  64. min.
3 - 2 N. Plestan  72. min.

Wales - Germany

In the previous round Wales lost at home against Finland (hope I won't offence anybody, but too old and limited squad) 0-2. It was the end WC dreams. In one moment it seems Wales has young and talented players, they were good in defeats against in group (Russia 1-2 and Germany 0-1, both away) but two wins (both at home against weak Azerbaijan 1-0 and weaker Liechtenstein 2-0) from five games show their lack of quality. Just one well known player Craig Bellamy isn't enough for WC. John Toshack has given up, said that they're not competent to play even with middle class European teams. I don't know too much about their starting eleven, but does it matter?!

Visitors are in very good shape and it seems they return on the "old roads of glory". From five games they lost only two points, Finland 3-3 away, but there are no space for relaxing, Russia breaths on the neck and German lads still have to travel to Moscow. Mario Gomez started Liechtenstein game along Podolsky, but fans were frustrating by his performance, he didn't score in 13 games in a row! Low announced that he will get the last chance tonight.

This game looks like the pick of the day. Odds are not too big, most of the bookies offer 1.40-1.45, at Expekt is 1.42, but it look like a gift. Use it!

I'm thinking about some other games. Scotland,Ecuador and Serbia to win, N.Ireland,Spain and BiH over. Will decide about my bets. And maybe one more analyze,later. Stay tuned.