League One and Two, 5 Nov

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Charlton - Preston

Charlton are topping the table, they have three wins in a row (last two on the road) with goal difference in those 10-1. No injury or suspension worries.

Preston are in a shocking run with five defeats out of last six and conceded 16 in those! They have had plenty of problems with defending entire season, but downtrend started when they lost Neil Mellor and Iain Hume and stopped scoring. For this game they’ll also be without another forward Jamie Proctor and goalie Iain Turner.

At the first sight I didn’t see any value here, but with including Preston’s injured players I got 1.61 for Charlton. At asian market it’s even better (as usual).

Bet: Charlton -0.75
Odd: 1.80 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 8/10
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Plymouth - Morecambe

Situation at Plymouth looks better recently, since they’re out of administration and Carl Fletcher has become a permanent manager. However, they’re stuck to the bottom with 12 defeats out of 14 matches and have been playing with plenty of youngsters (fielded seven U 21 players against Cheltenham last week). Besides that, their two defenders (Griffiths and Berry) are out, while teenage striker Matt Lecointe and goalie Jake Cole are in serious doubt to be fit.

Morecambe are third and undefeated on the road with five wins and three draws out of eight. They also have some injury worries with skipper Will Haining, forward Jason Price and defender Laurence Wilson all facing a late fitness test.

I think the market is overreacting on recent improvements at Plymouth and see this price as very generous.

Bet: Morecambe -0.5
Odd: 2.12 (188bet)
Stake: 6/10
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two wins - two loses

I have a hangover. So no full reports (no gossip column, as well), just results of my bets. Other three games stayed in a shadow of Burnley's win supported with two penalties. Hope both clubs will be relegated.

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Morecambe - Rotheram United, 1 @ 2.30, 2-0 WON!

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Leeds United - Southend United, Leeds -1.25 ah @ 1.82, 2-0 WON!

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Southampton - Charlton, Over 2.5 @ 1.90, 1-0 LOST

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Hull City - Burnley, 1 @ 1.76, 1-4 LOST

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Morecambe - Rotheram United

Morecambe find themselves in a good run of results with four wins and one defeat in last five games. With six rounds left, they’re three points far from play-off zone. At home look really impressive, five wins and a draw of last six encounters. In total just three home defeats of 20 games. Good news for the fans is club have extended winger Hackney’s loan deal from Colchester for a further month. Defender Parrish is back after suspension. Only missing is another defender, Will Haining.

Instead a battle for a title (as they promised before the season started), Rotheram are struggling to keep their play-off hopes. Considering their recent shape, wouldn’t be a miracle if they even drop out from first seven. They’ve noticed 3 defeats in a row (scored just once), while on the road have a win and four defeats of five games (scored twice). 0-3 defeat vs. Aldershot at Monday activated all alarms and first move is important midfielder Gary Roberts has been sacked for a breach of club’s discipline (drink and gambling). 

Unfortunately, odd 2.50 has been dropped and erased any thought regarding DNB instead clear home win. Anyway, I think it worth of a shot but will be careful with the stake. Home win, 2.30 at Expekt.

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Other thoughts and bets

Liverpool - Arsenal

Liverpool is without skipper, Arsenal is without whole defence. Home side will try to win to keep the title hope, visitors will try to do it for pure pleasure. Gunners are the most dangerous when nobody count on them. Too many times I lost my money betting against. We'll watch another open game, my choice is goals. Odds are very nice, 2.05 at 888. Over.

Yeovil Town is a clear favorite against relegated Hereford. With a win, they'll secure their status. But, will probably do the same with a point tonight. Two defeats in a row and very small odd for League One-1.50 are the major factors for me to skip this one.

Another "clear" favorite is Morecambe against Rotheram. But, Morecambe midfielder (and maybe the best player) Neil Wainwright has been ruled out for the rest of the season with an Achilles injury. Shrimps boss Sammy McIlroy told the club's website: "It's a big blow for us and for Neil." Beside that loss, they have three wins in a row. With a forth, they'll reach the line for a play-off. Pinnacle offers unreal 3.22 for away win and I have to try. Gamble bet, away win.