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Charlton - Preston
Charlton are topping the table, they have three wins in a row (last two on the road) with goal difference in those 10-1. No injury or suspension worries.
Preston are in a shocking run with five defeats out of last six and conceded 16 in those! They have had plenty of problems with defending entire season, but downtrend started when they lost Neil Mellor and Iain Hume and stopped scoring. For this game they’ll also be without another forward Jamie Proctor and goalie Iain Turner.
At the first sight I didn’t see any value here, but with including Preston’s injured players I got 1.61 for Charlton. At asian market it’s even better (as usual).
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Plymouth - Morecambe
Situation at Plymouth looks better recently, since they’re out of administration and Carl Fletcher has become a permanent manager. However, they’re stuck to the bottom with 12 defeats out of 14 matches and have been playing with plenty of youngsters (fielded seven U 21 players against Cheltenham last week). Besides that, their two defenders (Griffiths and Berry) are out, while teenage striker Matt Lecointe and goalie Jake Cole are in serious doubt to be fit.
Morecambe are third and undefeated on the road with five wins and three draws out of eight. They also have some injury worries with skipper Will Haining, forward Jason Price and defender Laurence Wilson all facing a late fitness test.
I think the market is overreacting on recent improvements at Plymouth and see this price as very generous.
Odd: 2.12 (188bet)
Stake: 6/10
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Cardiff 0 - 1 Plymouth
Birmingham 1 - 0 Fulham
Plymouth made a run of three games without a defeat. Home draw against drowning Kean and Ipswich wasn’t unexpected, but making a nightmare from Strachan’s debut in Boro really was. 1-0 win at Riverside gave them the wings and lads defeated Doncaster (2-1) at home in next round. Manager Paul Sturrock is keen to stick with the formula that has provided two excellent wins, but his plans, however, may be disrupted by injury concerns over two of the heroes from those victories. Plymouth biggest strength are counter attacks through the flanks and excellent execution by Rory Fallon. Appearance of both wingers, Alan Judge and Craig Noone, will need to be assessed. I guess one will play. Also, Fallon scored the winning goal for his New Zealand and led them to WC. Long trip and lack of focus could reflect on his performance at Walkers. On-loan right-back, David Gray, will have a late fitness test, while captain Carl Fletcher is available again after serving a one-match ban.
Bristol City 3 - 1 Plymouth
After the run of 7 (seven) consecutive defeats, Plymouth noticed two victories, over the fellows from the bottom - Peterborough United (2-1 at home) and against “you’ll never know what to expect from us” - Scunthorpe United (2-1 on the road). Another defeat (at Blackpool, 0-2) turned them back into relegation zone. After the game, boss Paul Sturrock stated the main reason for defeat is 11 hours spent in the bus! Hm…,ok. The problem is squad didn’t return to Devon after the game and spent two days at Stoke-on-Trent (half of the distance). So, players won’t be much more rested than at Saturday. Sturrock announced intention to fresh the squad with new players (what players?!) but the question is are the lads from the bench capable to improve the team’s shape and help to resist at one hell’s place, as Ashton Gate surely is. Club’s officials have insisted that Paul Sturrock's job as manager is safe (those statements usually means opposite) despite the arrival of former Argyle and England striker Paul Mariner as head coach. And Blackpool defeat didn’t help. However, lack of quality, tired players, bad dressing room atmosphere and manager who lost control should be the main reasons (in that order) why I (guess nobody) don’t expect them to take anything from this encounter. Except mentioned freshening the squad, no other injury concerns for Sturrock.
Ipswich 1 - 1 Swansea
Plymouth remain as one of the main favorites for moving in lower division. With limited funds team couldn’t be strengthened during the transfer market and Pilgrims simply don’t have enough quality for something more than struggling to avoid relegation. A spot in the middle at the end of season would be a blessing. After incredible run of results with seven consecutive defeats(!), Plymouth made two 2-1 wins (Peterborough on the road and Scunthorpe at home). Despite the good run, I don’t think we’ll see more from that and see Plymouth in third tier next year. Only advantage that Pilgrims will have at Bloomfield Road is statistic that says they lost there just once in 13 years. Plymouth also have won two of their last three matches, claiming seven points out of nine. Argyle's on-loan defender from Aston Villa Shane Lowry will be assessed after returning from international duty, while defender Darcy Blake traveled with the squad after being passed fit. Defenders Chris Barker and Reda Johnson and midfielder Kari Arnason are all ruled out, along with long term absentee defender (on-loan from Man.Utd.) James Chester. Chester is the only player that is missing from the last fixture. Plymouth is the only team in Championship (beside Peterborough) without a clean sheet so far.
Last season, Cardiff finished one place below the play-offs and that form shows signs of continuing into the new campaign. In the first round, they wished a welcome to new-comers Scunthorpe United with four goals in the net (4-0). Second round brought a trip to Bloomfield Road and hard game against Blackpool. Michael Chopra scored early for a lead, but hosts equalized twenty minutes later. In the rest of the game both sides had few opportunities on wet pitch to notice a win, but 1-1 remained. However, decent result stayed in the shadow of few injuries. The worst situation is with excellent Ross McCormack who faces six to eight weeks out after injuring his hamstring. Boss Dave Jones even took a time for a joke, saying “we're happy because nobody will want to buy Ross now” (meaning on interest of some Premier League teams). Beside him, at the same game defender Paul Quinn has survived a scare over a knee injury and could be back in action against Bristol City on Sunday, while midfielder Stephen McPhail is ready to play after being taken off as a precaution when he felt his hamstring. Gabor Gyepes has shaken off a knock he got playing for Hungary last week. Some youngsters like Adam Matthews (who came on as sub against Plymouth) will get the chance, but anyway visitors are favorites here.
