Premier League and Championship betting, 31 March

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QPR - Arsenal, over

Queens Park have noticed just one win out of last eight matches in the league and all of sudden, they dropped under the relegation line. They are also without a clean sheet in 21 Premier League games.

Arsenal have made seven league wins in a row and they surprisingly appeared at the third place. No pressure as the title is lost long time ago, but very good reason to play.

QPR will put some serious fight on their smaller pitch and I cannot completely exclude the possibility of a surprise. I will back goals, rather than Arsenal.

Bet: Over 2.75

Odd: 1.98 (bet365)

Stake: 8/10

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Portsmouth - Burnley, Portsmouth

Pompey haven’t given up after points deduction and with three points today, they could be above the line. They took seven out of possible nine points from last three at home, defeating Hull and Birmingham.

Burnley are safe from relegation and too far from play-off. They made four defeats and a draw out of last five on the road, today will be probably without top striker Jay Rodriguez. They’ve lost six out of last eight competitive matches against Pompey (both home and away).

Pompey are in a very good momentum, while Burnley are probably far from standards of Hull and Brum who already lost at Fratton Park. Some limitation in case of a draw.

Bet: Portsmouth -0.25

Odd: 1.98 (Ladbrokes)

Stake: 9/10

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Premier League 26 Feb, Arsenal - Tottenham

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Arsenal have won only one of their last ten meeting with Spurs, Wenger’s position is uncertain as never and they could even stay out of top-four. Spurs are in the better mood, they won’t win the title but will play in Champions League. Both sides play nice attacking football, had a free midweek and will have fresh legs. No reason why both sides shouldn’t go for all three points. Five of their last six league matches have finished with three or more goals (three of those with four or more). In last three visits to Emirates, Spurs were twice two goals down but once win and once grabbed a point.

Bet: Over 2.75
Odd: 1.93 (Ladbrokes)
Stake: 8/10
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Premier League Betting, Norwich - Arsenal

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Sort of obvious pick. Norwich have conceded in each of their home games (no clean sheet in any of 12 games this season), they play attacking football and three of their last four games produced four or more goals. Remind me on Blackpool last year.

Arsenal’s last seven matches in league were overs, while their five on the road produced 28 goals! Differently from the start of the season, they look pretty well and should be big favorites today. Additionally, Wenger made a deal with Dutch coach Van Persie to be rested against Germany and he’s fully fit. Arsenal have scored 13 goals in their last three meetings with Norwich.

Goals for me.

Bet: Over 3
Odd: 2.21 (188bet)
Stake: 8/10
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Premier League betting, Norwich City - Blackburn Rovers

                             

Norwich have been playing very well, recently. They’ve lost just once in last five (Old Trafford 0-2) and at home have just one defeat of last 16 encounters (including Championship). However, they haven’t kept a clean sheet in their all 10 league and cup matches this season and have conceded in 13 of the last 14 home games.

Blackburn are stuck to the bottom, only one win of nine in a league (Arsenal 4-3!). Some moral boost is League Cup win over Newcastle in midweek, but on the other hand they played 120 mins with full strength (Norwich will have fresh legs). They also haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their 12 games this season (nine went in over) and did it just once in 23 on the road!

I am pretty sure Norwich won’t be just sitting back, trying to win in a tactical battle (if they didn’t at Anfield Road and Old Trafford, why they should at home against Blackburn?). On the other hand, Blackburn gained some confidence and probably have decent expectations from this game. I am going on over.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.95 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 7/10
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Premier League betting, Tottenham - Arsenal

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Kind of an obvious bet. I cannot remember when (ever?) Spurs were so short (2.20) against Arsenal, at any place in any competition. They’ll have some confidence. On the other hand, Arsenal are 13th, same confidence but leaky defence. There were 13 goals scored last year in three games between these rivals, Tottenham have kept only one clean sheet in last 31 matches against Arsenal. Over is a pure logic.

Bet: Over 2.5

Odd: 1.81 (188bet)

Stake: 8/10

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Premier League Betting

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Man Utd - Blackpool,

United at home have a fearful record of 17 wins of 18 games. Only failure was a draw vs. WBA when they conceded two funny goals after 2-0 (remember how much I was happy with my -2 bet at ht). However, Blackpool are not West Ham from few seasons ago and I cannot imagine any, for them positive scenario. Nice and easy home win. 3-0 correct result.

Bet: Man Utd -1
Odd: 1.84 Betsson
Stake: 8/10

Fulham - Arsenal

The Cottagers are in very good shape, Arsenal are in a free fall and can’t see a reason why that should change today. I feel these odds are set wrong and think there’s a value on backing home side. Have been thinking about the best bet and decided not to be greedy.

Bet: Fulham +0.25
Odd: 2.25 (Canbet)
Stake: 7/10

And two small gambles (out of the record).

1.Overs in all games (Man Utd, Spurs and Man City over 3). Last day, why not? It could pay me a holiday, odd is 838.43 at 188bet.

2.In case Arry didn’t joke about Europa League. Birmingham to win + Liverpool draw. Double at 22.75, also 188bet.

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Tottenham - Arsenal

Spurs are in the race for CL spot (three points less than Man City with a game in hand) and this is more than “just” a derby game. They have lost just once against Arsenal in last eight competitive games (0-3 at Emirates) and lost also once in last 26 league games at White Hart Lane. Peter Crouch will be in the team after he served the suspension, Pienaar is rated as in doubt.

For the Gunners, this is the very last chance. Just one win of last six in the league and they’re seven points below United (with this game in hand). Also we’ll see how they will react on 102th minute shocker three days ago. However, Arsenal are still the best travellers in Premier (29 points of 15 games) and are undefeated in all six away games in 2011. Tragedian, Emmanuel Eboue, will be probably replaced by recovered Bacary Sagna. Denilson, Rosicky and Almunia are also fit.

Both sides are desperate for points, but don’t have impressive defensive records lately. I think this would be an open game (play for a goal more), not a tactical battle. Odds are more than acceptable.

Bet: Over 2.5
 Odd: 1.97 188bet, Pinnacle
 Stake: 8/10
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WBA - Arsenal

West Brom look much better under Roy Hodgson, they’re undefeated in last four in league and in previous round won in derby away vs. Brum (3-1). But, the fact is they haven’t kept a clean sheet in previous 27 games. On the other hand, from the bottom-half sides only Blackpool have scored more goals (WBA 39). Key midfielder Dorrans is out, other midfielder Mulumbu is doubtful, while Vela cannot play against parent club.

Arsenal suffered two painful defeats in last 10 days (Barca and Man Utd), but they still look good in the title race. Three points less than Utd, but with a game in hand (counting on Utd’s injuries and tough game vs. Bolton today). Arsenal have good record on the road against bottom sides, but Wenger is facing a long injury list. Seven players are out, Fabregas, Djourou, Diaby, Vermaelen, Szczesny, Walcott and Song. Jens Lehmann is in the squad which makes me think they will be vulnerable more than usual. Good news for Wenger is Bendtner returns.

The Gunners are desperate for points, but absolutely the same is with WBA. I expect an open game and goals on both sides.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.93 Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10
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Man Utd - Arsenal (18:15 CET)

Both sides will rotate players. Man Utd had a free week but will play CL at Tuesday, Arsenal played two painful games in last 7 days.

Another failure could start a free fall for Utd and I guess Ferguson will be very serious about this match. Arsenal should have passed Barca and I’m not sure how they’re mentally prepared for a hell place for them (Utd have won 8 of last 10 games vs. Arsenal at Old Trafford).

I was ready to leave this game alone, but the price on Man Utd is too good to be refused. Ferguson will certainly try to avoid a reply and to be honest, I can’t see the Gunners winning at Old Trafford. 

Bet: Man Utd -0.25
Odd: 1.86 188bet
Stake: 7/10
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Leeds - Arsenal

Leeds are really good in FA Cup recently, knocked Man Utd  at Trafford and played a draw at White Hart Lane last year, in this campaign resisted at Emirates (almost won, actually). Also, United will be confident as they’re undefeated at home in last seven and failed to score only once in last 15 games. The pressure is off (understandable) and Elland will be packed. No way I’ll be against them in these circumstances. Becchio  got some injury against Scunny and is rated as doubtful, but I’d be shocked if he doesn’t start (as I was shocked with Cattermole at Sunday, though).

Problem with Arsenal is they’re missing too many chances and if don’t score until 60th minute, become nervous. On the other hand if Gunners manage to score in first 15-20 mins, they will run the riot. Leeds kept them quiet in the first encounter, will they be able to do that again? No, I don’t believe in it. Arsenal have Wigan for the weekend and Ipswich for six days (after 0-1) and nobody could really assume the team that Wenger will name. Before the Emirates’ draw, Gunners noticed three consecutive wins over Leeds, scoring 13 goals in those. Arsenal haven’t been knocked in the third round in past 15 years.  

I won’t be involved in the final outcome, but high scoring game and away win is my expected scenario. Don’t think Leeds can keep it tight again and I’m sure they really believe in progress. On the other hand, Wenger knows here’s no reply. Goals would be my call.

Bet: Over 3
Odd: 2.06 188bet
Stake: 8/10

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Latest results and statistic update

Manchester United - Arsenal 1-0 WON
Birmingham - Newcastle PP
Leeds - QPR 2-0 LOST
Ipswich - Leicester 3-0 LOST 

Updated statistic and list of bets.

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Man Utd - Arsenal

United maybe haven’t been impressive, but it’s mainly because their away games as they won just once (with six draws)! However, they’re well known slow starters and I think their performances will be only better. At home, they’ve noticed 7 wins and a draw (2-2 vs. WBA) with 24-6 goal difference. Also, I wouldn’t compare CL group games with Premiership. In my opinion only real weakness is position of right-back and Rafael who lacks in experience (and quality, probably). Personally, I’d rather like to see Gary Neville. United have won four of last five competitive games against Arsenal. No injury concerns for Ferguson.

Public opinion is Arsenal are better than ever. Ok. In previous seasons, they wasted enough points to quit the challenge for the title even in this part of the season. However, they’ll face some problems at Old Trafford. They have bad record against top Premiership clubs (especially against Man Utd and Chelsea). My impression is players are too light weighted (great speed though) which makes them physically inferior in tackles and midfield battle. Than defence, that looks really shaky sometimes. Some info says Szczesny, third choice goalkeeper, will have advantage over Fabianski. At the end it’s not the same without Fabregas. Whatever Wenger has been talking, he’s not fit. In last nine visits to Trafford, the Gunners have noticed seven defeats (one draw and one win). 

I was thinking about goals tonight, but Ferguson will probably set 4-5-1 formation (with Rooney on the wing) that should keep the game tight and Gunners far from the goal. United have an obvious aerial superiority and they’ll be very dangerous from set-pieces. I’ll be simple. Home win, Vidic to score, 2-0 correct score.

Bet: Man Utd -0.5
Odd: 1.95 Digibet
Stake: 8/10

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Arsenal - Wigan

There’re plenty of questions which team Wenger will field for this game. Against Spurs and Newcastle, he named stronger squad than usual for a Cup game. Personally, I don’t have a problem with that. Any Arsenal’s eleven are pretty strong entity. Fabregas is injured. Chamakh will be rested, but there’s Bendtner (although I don’t like to base a bet on him). Arshavin, Wilshere and Rosicky, all should appear from the start. Arsenals haven’t won anything for five years (my honest opinion they’ll blow up in Premier, once again) and this could be a golden opportunity to lift the trophy.

Oppositely from Wenger, Martinez has plenty of reasons for a decent headache. Injury list consists some of his key players and space for rotation is not so big. He announces a possibility to give a chance to some youngsters. Believe him or don’t.  After great run of results they entered a crisis and defeat at West Ham was their fourth consecutive on the road and Wigan dropped into dangerous zone. Despite they knocked Arsenal at semi-final 2006, they have seven consecutive defeats on their soil. Adding on that Wigan has a label of really poor travellers and this is less important Cup, I have no reason to believe Martinez carries a serious hope for this encounter. Stoke at home should be more important concern.

I think we won’t see any surprise here. Gunners’ talent and desire for proving themselves should be too much for Wigan. Home win and handicap for me.

Bet: Arsenal -2ah
Odd: 2.26 188bet
Stake: 7/10

I'm curious about Huddersfield. Maybe a bet, but little later.

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Saturday's results and statistic update

The Robins scored two sensational goals (considering BBC), Robert Green was a man of the match at Emirates and Exeter suffered a first home defeat conceding four! I checked my archive, I wasn't worse ever and this is officially the worst month in my betting career! Worse even than December 2009.! Sorry to all.

New pick tomorrow.



Exeter - Brentford 2-4 LOSS
Arsenal - West Ham 1-0 LOSS
Middlesbrough - Bristol City 1-2 LOSS


Statistic:

October
Profit: -48.04 units Yield: -35.59%

Season
Profit: -27.86 units Yield: -7.60%

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Arsenal – West Ham

Arsenal look really great at the moment. And although this is very popular bet today, I’ll be involved in their game third time in a row. They demolished the Toon in Cup game during the midweek (4-0 away), at the same time resting some key players. Big  boost for Wenger is Fabregas, Walcott and Bendtner are fit and all 3 played at Newcastle (Walcott and Bendtner scored three times). It’s a big squad now and Wenger has no problem to name 11. They also score for fun lately. In 4 home games scored 14 goals (conceded 5) and in 2 CL games scored 11 goals! However in last two games at Emirates, they didn’t look impressive at all. First were shocked by WBA (2-3), then defeated Brum 2-1 but game was below their standards. So, I expect they’ll be very serious today. Arsenal are unbeaten in last 7 games against West Ham, while Man City is the only side that kept a clean sheet at Emirates in 2010..

After  9 rounds, West Ham are stuck to the bottom with just 6 points collected. They’re the side from whom I always expected to turn the corner and start moving away from a dangerous zone. Last season they made a decent spending on a transfer market, but unfortunately most of the signings were just money wasting (can’t not to think on Diamanti and transfer of 6 mill.). In this season nothing has changed and Hammers are living another bleak season in Premier. Also, at Tuesday they played 120 minutes against Stoke (won 3-1 after ET) with Grant naming very strong side. They’re tired and last thing they need is top side on the road that plays fast and attacking football. Next, Grant will miss his skipper Matthew Upson in the center of defense and striker Frederic Piquionne. Statistic also looks pessimistic as West Ham have managed just one clean sheet in 9 games, scored only 7 (lowest in Premier) and have failed to score in 5 of their last 6 games against Arsenal.

Arsenal look like a mean machine at the moment. They’ll face, I think it’s fair to say weak, slow and tired side without a captain and major threat in the attack. Despite it’s a London derby, anything except a high scoring home win would be sensation in my opinion. I expect a very long day for the Hammers and 3-0, 4-0 scoreline.

Bet: Arsenal -2.0
Odd: 2.00 bet365
Stake: 8/10

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Wednesday's result and statistic update

Hope this is the start of new good run...

Newcastle - Arsenal 0-4 WON 

Statistic:

October
Profit: -25.04 units Yield: -22.36%

Season
Profit: -4.86 units Yield: -1.41%

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Newcastle – Arsenal

After the great start in Premier, the Toon started to slowing down. In the last 3 home games, they noticed just one point against the sides from the bottom side of the table (Blackpool, Stoke and Wigan) and in all of those 3 conceded twice. In the previous round, they defeated Chelsea at Stamford (reserve squad though) in the game where Chris Hughton made 10 changes in the team. Something like that, he already announced. Newcastle tonight will be mix of fringe players and youngsters. They also have a big derby clash on the corner, home against Sunderland and that’s another reason for first teamers not to be risked. The Toon have only one win against Arsenal in last 19 competitive games and haven’t won in last 7 Cup games (since 1952)!

The Gunners are travelling to the north in a great mood. They demolished City at weekend and boosted their self confidence. Also, some important players (Fabregas, Walcott,Bendtner, Denilson) have been recovered from the injuries. In the previous round in city derby, they eliminated Spurs away, in the game where Wenger rotated players (as usual), but because the number of players in rotation (and their quality) that squad is always more than respectable. Arsenal have good tradition in this competition, but probably more important reason is Wenger’s desire to win a silverware (or better to say, pressure on him to win it). And in situation where Spurs, Chelsea and Man City already finished their appearance in Cup, Arsenal are favorites to win it (beside Man Utd, of course).

This surely won’t be a walk at the St James Park for the Wenger’s kids. Newcastle beat Chelsea away with the same team that probably will be tonight. They gained a huge amount of self confidence and will put their best in this game. But, on the other side will be much more serious eleven than at Stamford. Arsenal are in big uptrend, want a trophy and this should be just one station on the road to Wembley. Beside away win, I expect some counter attack that should finish the job before the end of 90 minutes.

Bet: Arsenal -0.75
Odd: 2.13 Canbet
Stake: 8/10

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Weekend results and statistic update

Like a nightmare.With one draw and three loses,this is the worst weekend that I remember. In fact, can't remember worse streak of results. And Zvezda lost the derby against Partizan.

Chelsea - Wolves 2-0 DRAW
Carlisle - Charlton 3-4 LOSS
Plymouth - Huddersfield 2-1 LOSS
Man City - Arsenal 0-3 LOSS

Statistic:

October
Profit: -34.08 units Yield: -32.77%

Season
Profit: -13.9 units Yield: -4.14%

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Manchester City – Arsenal

Citizens are having a good start of the campaign, 17 points from 8 games and lie currently at the 2^nd place. I still believe they have no serious chance for a title, but as far as they believe in it they’ll be giving their best. And the best from such paid players could be really terrific. They don’t lack in confidence as Chelsea have already be beaten at home soil. Few injury worries for Mancini, but considering quality of full squad they could be characterized as minor. Kolo Toure will face a late fitness test and Kolarov is still out. Mario Balotelli is finally fit and will have a place on the bench.

The Gunners are playing another season that looks like one before. Wenger’s kids are great talents, Cesc is one of the best World’s players, Arshavin one of the most dangerous, they all have a great pace… But beside more experience, they really need more strength. Physically, they’re far below the top Premier sides which cause plenty of problems in the midfield tackles and in aerial challenges. And that again, with the lack of counter attack opportunities, brings defeats in the big games. Also, Wenger has some serious problems with injuries in the defense line. Almunia is long term absent and Fabianski is all except safe goalie that gives security to four players in front of him. Then, center backs, Koscielny and Vermaelen are injured (Sagna is back though). So, not so impressive defense will have to cope with two top shape “beasts”, Tevez and Adebayor. Beside mentioned, midfielder Jack Wilshere is suspended. Arsenal have won one of their last eight Premier League away games and have not kept a clean sheet in their last 15 league and cup away games.

I’m well surprised with the odds here. In my opinion, bookmakers have exaggerated Arsenal’s Champions League performances. This is something else, trip to Manchester is probably the hardest they’ll have this season. Chelsea made a five points margin yesterday and Mancini wouldn’t be satisfied with a point here. Home win.

Bet: Man City -0.25
Odd: 2.16 188bet
Stake: 8/10

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Tuesday's result and statistic update

Arsenal - Shakhtar 5-1  WON

Statistic:

October
Profit: -11.08 units Yield: -15.18%

Season
Profit: +9.1 units Yield: +2.99%

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