Tuesday's result and statistic update

Arsenal - Shakhtar 5-1  WON

Statistic:

October
Profit: -11.08 units Yield: -15.18%

Season
Profit: +9.1 units Yield: +2.99%

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Arsenal - Shakhtar Donetsk

Arsenal have six points from first two games and scored nine in those. First destroyed Braga at Emirates (6-0), then easy past Belgrade (3-1) and with tonight’s win the Gunners would practically pass the group. When they play Champions League at Emirates, home wins are common thing. Since the loss against Inter Milano seven years ago, Arsenal have noticed 17 wins with 4 draws and 12 of those 17 wins were with 2 or more goals margin. Wenger has plenty of problems in the back line. Koscielny, Sagna and Vermaelen are out (adding on that Fabianski who is in). In past, problems with defensive line meant Arsenal will be even more attacking. But, also some good news from medical service. Fabregas, Bendtner and Theo Walcott are all fit. Fabregas will probably take some part in the game as a preparation for City, while rest two should start the game.

Shakhtar also come in this game with six points. However, they had much more problems in those two then Arsenal. At first game at home, they had lots of problems to break Partizan’s defense (won 1-0). 3-0 at Braga suggests dominating win, but true is home side had possession and few great chances that missed. Then came counter attack, home attempts to save the game, another counter and 0-3 at the end. However, beside domination in Ukraine (first place, with 5 points margin and goal difference 25-5 after 13 rounds), they play very well in Europe (lost away just once since 2008, but were playing in Europa League). They need home win against Braga for second place and tonight won’t have any pressure. However, it’s not like I believe in Lucescu’s announcing they’ll attack Arsenal trying to use their defensive problems. It would be a suicide, more likely. However, only injury concern is very important players, Douglas Costa, and we’ll see is Lucescu ready to risk with him (I think he’s not).

I don’t think Wenger has too much space for calculation here (beside leaving Fabregas on the bench). It’s big difference being first, or second. In the rest three games, they have to travel twice (one trip is in Ukraine), failure today would cut the space for Wenger to play with rotating squad. On the other hand, win tonight with the win in last round against Partizan at home would bring the top. And of course, considering quality difference, Arsenal are way above. Odds are higher than I expected. Home win.

Bet: Arsenal -0.75
Odd: 1.91 Stan James
Stake: 8/10

Probably one pick from Championship, later today.

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Fulham – Wolfsburg

Fulham started to think about this game just after the humiliating of Juve. They have every right to be optimistic, knocking out Italian giant and ex competition winner - Shakhtar give them enough reasons for it. At the same time, they should be aware of their shape on the road. In Premier, they have a single win of 16 games. In Europe played a 1-1 draw in Ukraine which could be characterized as a miracle, more than a luck (19 attempts for Shakhtar and 17(!) corners) and 1-3 defeat in Italy. So, their chances are in this game, not in re-match. Zamora is rested, in fact all squad has been rested and they’ll give their best shot tonight.

 

Ex German champion eliminated Villarreal and Rubin in past two rounds. They have three consecutive wins in domain league (with three clean sheets) and their self confidence should be very high. They gain an attacking style of play and I doubt they’ll change it for tonight’s clash. From their point of view, they’ll play against average English team and won’t give them too much respect. Main problem is appearance of their best striker Edin Dzeko who is rated 50-50 to play. Even without him, Wolfsburg have huge attacking potential.

 

Both sides have reasons to believe in progress. Maybe I could give a small advantage to the hosts, but at the same time expect an open game from the start and goals. 888sport offer 2.00. Over 2.5.

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Sakhtar 2-1 Werder (aet)

Rodrigues Jadson's extra-time winner sank Werder Bremen and ensured Shakhtar Donetsk won the last Uefa Cup final.
Luiz Adriano's delicate finish put Shakhtar in front after 25 minutes. 
Werder equalised before the interval when Shakhtar keeper Andriy Pyatov could only divert Ronaldo Naldo's long-range free-kick into the net. 
And it was another goalkeeping error that gave Shakhtar victory in extra-time, when Tim Wiese allowed Jadson's 97th-minute strike to squirm in. 
Shakhtar deserved the victory in Istanbul, but Werder will reflect on the absence of inspirational forward Diego because of suspension.

Shakhtar Donetsk coach Mircea Lucesu:

"It is bigger because it is the last and maybe we can keep the trophy. We don't have to make a copy of it. 
"We have bigger aims. We now want to do things in the Champions League: Reach the quarterfinals, maybe the semi-finals. 
"It was important not to allow Werder to play to their style, we contolled the game and we created most of the chances." 

Werder Bremen coach Thomas Schaaf:
"We were just not fast enough and not just effective enough. 
"We weren't able to play our usual football, we didn't put enough pressure on our opponents. 
"We gave them too much space and lost too many balls. I congratulate Shakhtar, they were the best team on the night." 


Shakhtar Donetsk: Pyatov, Srna, Kucher, Chigrinsky, Rat, Lewandowski, Fernandinho, Ilsinho (Gai 99), Jadson (Duljaj 112), Willian , Luiz Adriano (Gladkyy 89).
Subs Not Used: Khudzamov, Ischenko, Chyzhov, Moreno. 
Booked: Srna, Lewandowski, Ilsinho. 
Goals: Luiz Adriano 25, Jadson 97. 

Werder Bremen: Wiese, Fritz (Pasanen 94), Prodl, Naldo, Boenisch, Niemeyer (Tziolis 103), Frings, Baumann, Ozil, Pizarro, Rosenberg (Hunt 78). 
Subs Not Used: Vander, Tosic, Vranjes, Harnik. 
Booked: Frings, Fritz, Tziolis, Boenisch. 
Goals: Naldo 35. 

Att: 53,100. 
Ref: Luis Medina Cantalejo (Spain).
www.bbc.co.uk

Shakhtar - Werder

Sukru Saracoglu stadium in Istanbul is the place where Shakhtar Donetsk and Werder Bremen will contest the last Uefa Cup final. Shakhtar hope to become the first Ukrainian side to win a European trophy since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Formal hosts, last season's Ukrainian champions, go into the game after thrashing Lugansk 3-0 away from home to clinch second place in this year's championship behind runaway champions Dynamo Kiev. That has secured a place in the third qualifying round of next year's Champions League. On the road to final, they eliminated Tottenham, CSKA Moscow and Olympique Marseille. In semi-final they passed their fellow citizens, mentioned Dynamo. In all those rounds, Ukrainian side was outsider. Tonight, for the first time they’ll be the favorites. They’re full of confidence and surely won’t luck in motivation (beside all competitive motives, I’m sure Rinat Akhmetov promised a more than lucrative reward for the trophy). Boss Mircea Lucescu has no problems with missing players. Aleksandr Kucher served his suspension ban, while Jadson is set to play despite a recent knock. Tomas Hubschmann is suspended, but he can be replaced, easily.

Werder want their first major European honor since the 1992 Cup Winners' Cup. As their European hopes in Bundesliga vanished, this will be the chance to save the season. Their performances in Uefa Cup were excellent and they fully deserved this final. They were better than: AC Milan, Saint Etienne, Udinese, but the sweetest victory came at the end, against their arch rivals Hamburger SV. Werder scored 15 goals on these 8 games, showing great force in attack. And there we come to reasons for Thomas Schaaf’s headache. The best player, team’s brain and playmaker on the pitch, leader in assists and one of the best scorers, Diego is suspended (going to Juve, btw.)! Werder definitely isn’t the same team without him. But, that’s just a beginning. Key striker Almeida is also suspended. Here Schaaf’s headache turns into migraine, Mertesacker and Jensen are injured and won’t play. Naldo, Pizarro and Rosenberg also have some injury problems and their appearance is under the question mark! Four keys won’t play and another three are in doubt. Enough for a panic attack. And enough to be declared as outsiders. I expect a cautious start from them where they’ll wait a chance from some set-up plays, or Özil’s run on the wing.

All those missings on German side gave a slight advantage to Ukrainians (bookies give slight to Germans, btw.). This is the final, no re-match, and many weird things happened already in such games. But, for me Shakhtar is closer to victory, odds are more than sweet (although in a drop) and simply feel Wiese will make another brutal mistake. Limited stake. Expekt and 888sport offer 2.70. Shakhtar to win.

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Btw. Sandefjord 2 - 2 Rosenborg

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