Champions League betting, Chelsea - Barcelona

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Nothing much to say about these teams, except there will be a decent amount of pressure (mainly on Chelsea’s side).

Referee of this game is Felix Brych, an interesting lad. In his 20 Champions League matches, he’s shown a decent inclination to yellow and red cards, averaging 41.5 points per a game (yellow - 10 points, red - 25). He had pretty quiet game Benfica - Twente (last this season), but in four previous games he showed 24 yellow and 4 reds (average of 85 points!). 

Big pressure, tight game and nervous referee forced me to go to the booking market.

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Bet: Over 45 booking points
Odd: 1.98 (BetVictor)
Stake: 7/10

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Champions League Betting, Genk-Partizan

There’re qualifiers and I see it as a warming-up games for the new season. It’s always hard to find some info for the teams from non-English speaking areas, so I will give my insight for this game hoping it might be useful to someone.

Genk – Partizan

Genk are Belgium champions and it says a lot. They play much better at home where they actually won the title beating competition. However, it’s summer vacation time and they probably won’t have stadium packed. They sold a goalie to Chelsea and he was one of two best players. His replacement is far from that level. Genk’s game is very fast and they’re attacking minded. They don't have too much international experience, differently from the visitors.

Our neighbours (their stadium is few hundred meters from Zvezda’s) made some, in my opinion strange moves on the transfer market. They sold almost entire team and brought a bunch of new players. Goalie is the same, but whole defence line is new. Instead top-class Savic (Man City lived their reputation by paying him way too much), skipper and heart of the team Krstajic and both side backs are four new faces. Ivanov, Bulgarian international looks very slow. Rnic came just few days ago. Right-back Rankovic experienced player, but his natural role is defensive midfielder and will play right-back. The strongest link is left-back Volkov. His only bad side is he’s too attacking minded. Defence line is far worst line of the team. Defensive mid Kamara is key on the midfield, Babovic could be good, but Vukic and Ilic are too old and too slow. Attacking duo is consisted of usually harmless Scepovic and top-class Brazilian Eduardo. He’s a great target man and lethal finisher. His striking force and Genk’s not so good goalie will be their best chance.

Stanojevic (Partizan’s coach) is about to do something very strange (considering some info that appeared) and set attacking side. It could easily turn this game in the goal fiesta. In my honest opinion Genk are the favourites and there’s decent possibility of goals. Pinnacle offers 2.05 for over 2.5 and I’ll take it with the smile.

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Bet: over 2.5
Odd: 2.05 Pinnacle
Stake: 7/10
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Championship final, 5.50 gamble

Reading  - Swansea

I have same feeling for Reading, as I had for Posh. At the first glance two evenly matched sides, but formal hosts seem to have more tactical discipline and for me look better under the pressure. If we expect a nervy game, some advantage would go to them. Their away record shouldn’t be overlooked as well. Reading are without a defeat in league in last nine trips, in last four haven’t conceded (two of those were Leeds and Cardiff re-match). Swans defeated Millwall and made a heroic 10 men performance vs. Forest, but before that automatic promotion were lost on their away games. Two key men in my opinion are Shane Long (of course) and Nathan Dyer (very annoying lad when you bet against Swans). Five of last seven finals ended with 1-0. Shane Long have had a brilliant season, his top performance in the most important game should natural. He to score and Reading to win 1-0 is tasty 29.00. Second scoring option is Ian Harte (same bet for him is 67.00 at Victor Chandler). He already played Champions League semi, he’ll be calm and have scored 10 goals in 30 games for Reading!

After all no serious bet, it is 90mill game (they must be joking!) and it’s more feeling than the facts. Gamble for me would be Shane Long to score and Reading to win @ 5.50 (Paddy Power).

Sorry for late posting. Good luck to all and enjoy the game.

Gamble: Long to score and Reading to win
Odd: 5.50 Paddy Power 
Stake: 1/10
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Tottenham - Arsenal

Spurs are in the race for CL spot (three points less than Man City with a game in hand) and this is more than “just” a derby game. They have lost just once against Arsenal in last eight competitive games (0-3 at Emirates) and lost also once in last 26 league games at White Hart Lane. Peter Crouch will be in the team after he served the suspension, Pienaar is rated as in doubt.

For the Gunners, this is the very last chance. Just one win of last six in the league and they’re seven points below United (with this game in hand). Also we’ll see how they will react on 102th minute shocker three days ago. However, Arsenal are still the best travellers in Premier (29 points of 15 games) and are undefeated in all six away games in 2011. Tragedian, Emmanuel Eboue, will be probably replaced by recovered Bacary Sagna. Denilson, Rosicky and Almunia are also fit.

Both sides are desperate for points, but don’t have impressive defensive records lately. I think this would be an open game (play for a goal more), not a tactical battle. Odds are more than acceptable.

Bet: Over 2.5
 Odd: 1.97 188bet, Pinnacle
 Stake: 8/10
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Liverpool - Wigan

There’re finally some smiles at Anfield. They’re in the run of four consecutive wins without conceding and I’m sure they haven’t given up from the idea about Champions League next year (currently six points far from 4th spot). Liverpool have been playing much better at home and have scored two or more goals in seven of last nine games at home. Gerrard and Skrtel are rated as in doubt, while Martin Kelly should be fit.

Wigan will definitely be struggling till the last round. Their win in the previous round over Blackburn was their first of last 16 games and they’re currently first under the relegation line. They have never won at Anfield, losing five of last six competitive games. Defender Gary Caldwell should play with the mask.

Confidence at Eland is sky high after a great win over Chelsea. I expect a more attacking approach and victory with at least two goals margin (with one, half stake is back). Suarez should score. First bet on Liverpool after a while, a year or so.

Bet: Liverpool -1.25
Odd: 1.91 Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10
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One more...
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Manchester United - Valencia

United haven’t impressed in CL games at Old Trafford, this season. One draw 0-0 (vs. Rangers) and one unconvincing win over Turkish side Bursa. They need only a point here for the first spot in the group (which should be important). But, the fact that makes this bet attractive is Utd’s schedule. They didn’t play for the weekend at Blackpool and next game (hard one tough, vs. Arsenal) is at next Monday (range is 16 days). My opinion is Ferguson will name very strong squad for the game (he already made such announcement) to keep the players in shape and to keep winning mentality. Last thing he needs is deja vu of Besiktas in previous season.

I find it hardly to believe Valencia carry any serious hope tonight. With a win they would be first, yes. But it’s easier to believe, they’ve already given up from it. Bunch of players are out of squad. Moya, Navarro, Joaquin, Vicente, Stankevicius, Topal, Manuel Fernandes  and Bruno all stayed at Spain. Boss Emery brought to England goalie Cesar and defender Mathieu, but it does remain to see will they start the game.

I don’t think Utd will gamble with this one and have no problem to accept offered price. Rooney should strive to regain some of the lost confidence (and probably lost nerves with Bervatov’s five hits and all the talks about it) and I expect him on a score sheet. As yesterday, home win is pure logic for me.

Bet: Man Utd -1ah
Odd: 1.98 Canbet
Stake: 8/10

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Glasgow Rangers - Manchester United

My break did last more than I planned, since a got some nasty cold. A little bit annoyed for missing Hudders last night. However, rest is over…

Rangers are in an interesting position. With 5 points, they need to match Valencia’s result tonight (or to make better) and then in the last round to beat Bursa and cheer for United against Spanish side. On the other hand, they have almost secured spot for Europa League since Bursa can hardly show some hidden, top class quality and won both games. Walter Smith has plenty of problems with his back line. Beside they’re leaking goals recently (five in last three league games), injury list causes a serious headache to him. Regular defenders Bougherra and Webster are sidelined (as well as defensive midfielder Edu), while Sasa Papac is in serious doubt. Smith likes to play 5-4-1 formation, but if Papac is unfit he’d be with only four fit defenders. Striker Kyle Lafferty is also missing.

United are in very good position, as one point would guarantee 2^nd spot. However, if somehow lose tonight, they’ll have to beat Valencia at Trafford for progress. No, I don’t think Ferguson will make a such gamble. Win tonight and don’t think on CL for a while is his idea, more probably. Vidic and Rio will both be rested (according to him), Rooney will take some part in the game. Little weird from him to leave both central defenders on the bench. Before few years I wouldn’t believe in this, but Darren Fletcher will also be rested in a Champions League game. However, players are used to play in rotation system and I don’t see a big problem for them in this. And tonight’s squad maybe won’t be so weakened because the importance of the game and the fact next PL game is at home against Blackburn. United are unbeaten in 11 European games on the road (8 wins and 3 draws).

Rangers will continue playing in Europa League and it’s probably crystal clear even for Smith and the Glasgow lads. That, further in my assuming, will cause a little bit more daring formation from Smith to decrease the pressure on defense line. Which, further, causes Utd will rip them off. First conceded goal will open them up and make them vulnerable for counter attacks. Away win with 2-3 goals margin.

Bet: Man Utd -1ah
Odd: 2.26 10bet
Stake: 7/10

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Still think about Valencia and -1.75ah (will post if decide to bet on it), but I won’t be on Spurs tonight. All world is on a home win with handicap and over. Too much money is in the game and I really wouldn’t be too surprised to see 1-0 win. 

Manchester City – Arsenal

Citizens are having a good start of the campaign, 17 points from 8 games and lie currently at the 2^nd place. I still believe they have no serious chance for a title, but as far as they believe in it they’ll be giving their best. And the best from such paid players could be really terrific. They don’t lack in confidence as Chelsea have already be beaten at home soil. Few injury worries for Mancini, but considering quality of full squad they could be characterized as minor. Kolo Toure will face a late fitness test and Kolarov is still out. Mario Balotelli is finally fit and will have a place on the bench.

The Gunners are playing another season that looks like one before. Wenger’s kids are great talents, Cesc is one of the best World’s players, Arshavin one of the most dangerous, they all have a great pace… But beside more experience, they really need more strength. Physically, they’re far below the top Premier sides which cause plenty of problems in the midfield tackles and in aerial challenges. And that again, with the lack of counter attack opportunities, brings defeats in the big games. Also, Wenger has some serious problems with injuries in the defense line. Almunia is long term absent and Fabianski is all except safe goalie that gives security to four players in front of him. Then, center backs, Koscielny and Vermaelen are injured (Sagna is back though). So, not so impressive defense will have to cope with two top shape “beasts”, Tevez and Adebayor. Beside mentioned, midfielder Jack Wilshere is suspended. Arsenal have won one of their last eight Premier League away games and have not kept a clean sheet in their last 15 league and cup away games.

I’m well surprised with the odds here. In my opinion, bookmakers have exaggerated Arsenal’s Champions League performances. This is something else, trip to Manchester is probably the hardest they’ll have this season. Chelsea made a five points margin yesterday and Mancini wouldn’t be satisfied with a point here. Home win.

Bet: Man City -0.25
Odd: 2.16 188bet
Stake: 8/10

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Tuesday's result and statistic update

Arsenal - Shakhtar 5-1  WON

Statistic:

October
Profit: -11.08 units Yield: -15.18%

Season
Profit: +9.1 units Yield: +2.99%

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Arsenal - Shakhtar Donetsk

Arsenal have six points from first two games and scored nine in those. First destroyed Braga at Emirates (6-0), then easy past Belgrade (3-1) and with tonight’s win the Gunners would practically pass the group. When they play Champions League at Emirates, home wins are common thing. Since the loss against Inter Milano seven years ago, Arsenal have noticed 17 wins with 4 draws and 12 of those 17 wins were with 2 or more goals margin. Wenger has plenty of problems in the back line. Koscielny, Sagna and Vermaelen are out (adding on that Fabianski who is in). In past, problems with defensive line meant Arsenal will be even more attacking. But, also some good news from medical service. Fabregas, Bendtner and Theo Walcott are all fit. Fabregas will probably take some part in the game as a preparation for City, while rest two should start the game.

Shakhtar also come in this game with six points. However, they had much more problems in those two then Arsenal. At first game at home, they had lots of problems to break Partizan’s defense (won 1-0). 3-0 at Braga suggests dominating win, but true is home side had possession and few great chances that missed. Then came counter attack, home attempts to save the game, another counter and 0-3 at the end. However, beside domination in Ukraine (first place, with 5 points margin and goal difference 25-5 after 13 rounds), they play very well in Europe (lost away just once since 2008, but were playing in Europa League). They need home win against Braga for second place and tonight won’t have any pressure. However, it’s not like I believe in Lucescu’s announcing they’ll attack Arsenal trying to use their defensive problems. It would be a suicide, more likely. However, only injury concern is very important players, Douglas Costa, and we’ll see is Lucescu ready to risk with him (I think he’s not).

I don’t think Wenger has too much space for calculation here (beside leaving Fabregas on the bench). It’s big difference being first, or second. In the rest three games, they have to travel twice (one trip is in Ukraine), failure today would cut the space for Wenger to play with rotating squad. On the other hand, win tonight with the win in last round against Partizan at home would bring the top. And of course, considering quality difference, Arsenal are way above. Odds are higher than I expected. Home win.

Bet: Arsenal -0.75
Odd: 1.91 Stan James
Stake: 8/10

Probably one pick from Championship, later today.

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Manchester United - WBA

After just 7 rounds, United are already in position to chase rivals for the top and gap looks pretty decent (5 points from Chelsea). Current, third position is a result of away games where Devils all four finished with a draw. Second reason is shocking performances from Wayne Rooney who thankfully to happenings outside the pitch can’t back on the track. However, this is a nice opportunity for him to return some self confidence and score one-two times. United won 11 and drew 1 of last 12 games against WBA. They have 13 wins of last 14 home games and 11 of those 13 were with 2 or more goals margin. Only defeat was suffered from Chelsea and both wins by 1 came against Liverpool. Opponents like WBA are in the group of routine games. Despite recent talks, Hargreaves won’t make his comeback today and only doubtful is Giggs.

The Baggies have been noticing their best start in Premier (considering their previous appearances, that is not too much). However, 6^th place on the table (!), their home performances (no defeat in  four games) and excellent away win at Emirates call on caution. Di Matteo’s team carries a nice passing football and don’t hesitate to use any sign of disrespect. Like they did against Arsenal. On the other hand, that attitude can bring them a trouble, like it was at Stamford (0-6). As they didn’t care about that defeat (won vs. Sunderland 1-0 in the next game), I think they won’t about the game like Man Utd away is. Regardless of the today’s result, they will stay focused on home games and direct rivals from the bottom. WBA could be without striker Odemwingie and midfielder Jerome Thomas who are in doubt.

Odds here are a little bit higher than usual. International brake couldn’t make a serious problem as it’s removed for Tuesday. Champions League game is at next Wednesday, but I don’t see Bursa as a kind of opponent for who Sir Alex will dramatically change the squad in Premier. Five points less than Chelsea should be valid reason for maximum seriousness at Old Trafford and I expect another convincing win. 3-0 correct score.

Bet: Man Utd -1.75
Odd: 2.03 Expekt
Stake: 8/10

Gamble: Correct score 3-0
Odd: 7.50 888sports
Stake: 1/10  

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Spartak Moskva - MSK Zilina

Russians are contender for the second place in the group. Assuming no one will take too much from Chelsea, with away win at Marseille they already finished a big part of the job. Now, they need to confirm that points, every mistake would erase it. Spartak’s boss has been trying to remark the absence of few midfielders, but seems only Drincic’s is worth of notice.

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Despite recent progress of Slovakian football, I don’t rate Zilina too high. Can’t imagine them in the next round and most they could is to make some effort and win French for the third spot. They also have a big “imperfection” as they play offensive football regardless the opponent’s name.   So they did against Chelsea and conceded 4, instead 1 or 2. Now boss Hapal announced the same plan which, in my opinion, can only see them hurt. Spartak have some problems against highly defensive sides, but actually like when someone comes “for a win”.

 

Home side is strong favorite here and everything except a convincing win would be a first class surprise (for me, at least). However, I’m not ready to take any bigger handicap.

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Bet: Spartak -1
Odd: 1.88  bet365
Stake: 7/10

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Bayern Munich 0 - 2 Inter Milan

Jose Mourinho wrote his name into the history books as Diego Milito inspired Inter Milan to Champions League glory against Bayern Munich at the Bernabeu.
Milito set Inter on their way against the run of play with a clipped finish. 
And he wrapped up a win built on the foundations of a solid defence with a solo effort that saw Inter become the first Italian side to win the Treble. 
It means Mourinho, who won the cup with Porto in 2004, becomes the third man in history to win it with two clubs. 
He joins Ernst Happel and Ottmar Hitzfeld in earning that remarkable accolade - at the age of only 47 - and, in doing so, ends a wait of more than 45 years for the Nerazzurri to regain Europe's top prize. 
That he did so by overcoming his mentor Louis van Gaal, with whom he worked at Barcelona in the 1990s, in the process only served to complete the ultimate season of personal vindication for the Portuguese.
If reports are to be believed, it is a triumph that will earn Mourinho the manager's position at arguably the world's biggest club, Real Madrid, this summer.
How fitting, then, that this triumph was earned at Real's magnificent Bernabeu stadium - and as Mourinho waved to the Inter fans after watching his side lift the trophy, it looked every inch a wave goodbye and confirmation this will prove the denouement of his career in Italy.

www.bbc.co.uk

Bayern - Inter

Bayern will have 2 big threats, Robben and Olic. Few good games including elimination of Sir Alex's men,but my impression is they progressed to final with a slight touch of luck.

Few years ago I said that Inter will win CL at same year when Liverpool win Premier. Which means never. But, Mourinho created Chelsea in Italy and eliminations of Barca and mentioned Chelsea make of them favorites tonight in my opinion. And simply can’t imagine Mourinho loses at his future home. No way.

Have been thinking about -0.25, but decided to take a big odd. Inter to win, best offer is at Eurobet 2.50. Milito will score. Correct result 1-0,2-0.

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Gamble for today

Atalanta - Palermo, 2-X ht/ft @ 17.00 bet365

Palermo need a win for Champions League,I expect them to lead at the half-time.But will be 4th only if Samp don't win.So,gamble is based on scenario Samp will win and Palermo will be devastated in the 2nd half and concede goal(s) for a draw.
Hardly to happen,but isn't impossible and wouldn't be the first time.

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Champions League pick

Barcelona - Inter, Over 3 @ 2.10 bet365

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CL thoughts and 1 EUR bet

Regarding tonight's game.I was thinking about one gamble,Lyon -1.5 at 5.00.We were witnesses in past seasons and in recent one,they can defeat anybody at home.But,to be honest,they hardly score more than once.And to score twice without conceding against Bayern?On the other hand,lots deppend from Robben.He buried Fiora,Man Utd and scored in the first game.Fourth time?Probably possibility with a higher percentage than first one.After some thinking,my potential bet looked like money wasting.Will put 1-3EUR on 1-2 ht/ft @ 34.00 for fun and that's it.:) Scenario:Lyon scoring first,Bayern show the class in the 2nd half and Robben equalizing,all-in,counter attack,all end.

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For more opinions,visit our place soccervista.com/forum

Good luck to all,people.

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Night of the limited offers

No way I'll take 1.65-1.70 for a home win in semi-final of Champions League. Germans are the obvious favorites, but with that price... I'll pass.

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Odds on Aston Villa are around even, openning were 2.20. Don't like too much to back Villa on the road and if I didn't take it then, looks pointless to do it now. Maybe -0.25 at 1.80 (think StanJames) could be a good call. Will decide later.

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Isn't too helpfull post. The biggest blog attendance, yesterday. Thanks. Hope some took Notts County without handicap.

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Liverpool 0-0 Fulham

Liverpool's hopes of qualifying for the Champions League took another huge blow as they failed to break down resolute Fulham despite dominating possession.
Alberto Aquilani's early overhead kick was easily collected by Mark Schwarzer. 
And the Australian continued to thwart Liverpool and Aquilani, saving his 20-yard curling effort and watching the Italian's left-footed drive fly wide. 
Schwarzer was again equal to Ryan Babel's fierce strike as Fulham defended deep and frustrated Liverpool. 
This game could have been a dress rehearsal for the Europa League final in Hamburg - if Liverpool and Fulham are able to overcome their respective semi-final opponents.
But if that is the case, the neutral will hope for a far less one-sided affair - as Liverpool attacked relentlessly but lacked the necessary guile to open the scoring. 
Rafael Benitez's Liverpool side will take on Atletico Madrid after overcoming Benfica 4-1 at Anfield to win 5-3 on aggregate, while Fulham won 1-0 at German champions Wolfsburg for a 3-1 aggregate victory and will face Hamburg in their last-four encounter. 
But, there were no signs that Liverpool were feeling the effects of their exertions in the week as they started brightly with chances falling to David Ngog, Maxi Rodriguez and Aquilani. 
The home side had received an attacking blow prior to kick-off when talismanic 22-goal striker Fernando Torres was ruled out with a knee injury.
Liverpool manager Rafael Benitez:
"I am a little bit disappointed, normally when you control the game and have chances you can score. We know the fourth position is a little bit far away. 
"They were deep, they were well organised and we had to score. We had one or two chances, their keeper was good, but it's not easy to find space when they have players behind the ball. 
"We needed to be patient and it was not easy to find the final pass in the final third. 
"I am disappointed because I feel that we had plenty of possession." 
Fulham boss Roy Hodgson:
"There is no doubt Liverpool dominated the game and we were forced on to the back foot but at the same time we stood our corner very well and fought very hard. 
"We stopped them getting clear-cut chances and it was really when we just lost Daniel Agger for a corner at the end that I was concerned the ball was going to go in the back of the net. 
"On the occasions when they got good strikes in Mark Schwarzer was equal to it. It is another excellent clean sheet. 
"I have got to be very satisfied with what the team has done because Liverpool are a very difficult team to take points off home or away."
www.bbc.co.uk

Man Utd 3-2 Bayern Munich (agg 4-4)

Arjen Robben's spectacular late strike wrecked Manchester United's hopes of reaching a third successive Champions League final as he sent Bayern Munich through on away goals at Old Trafford.
The former Chelsea star rifled in a magnificent volley from Franck Ribery's corner with 16 minutes left to stun United after they looked to be cruising into the semi-finals as they went 3-0 up before the interval to establish a two-goal aggregate lead. 
Robben capped a dismal week for United that has seen them lose the Premier League leadership and crash out of the Champions League - also ending English interest in the tournament after Arsenal's exit against Barcelona. 
Wayne Rooney was in Sir Alex Ferguson's starting line-up as he completed a remarkable recovery from the ankle ligament injury he sustained in Bayern's 2-1 win against United in the Allianz Arena eight days ago. 
And he was quickly a thorn in Bayern's side, setting up Darron Gibson's opener after just three minutes. United looked on course for the last four when Nani turned in Antonio Valencia's cross four minutes later to put them ahead in the tie.
Bayern were being run ragged and Nani capped United's complete supremacy when he scored his second and their third as half-time approached - but the whole mood and shape of the tie was turned when Ivica Olic took advantage of poor defending to bundle home a crucial goal before the interval. 
Louis van Gaal's side suddenly discovered hope, and a measure of composure, their cause being helped when Rafael was sent off after 50 minutes following his second yellow card for a foul on Ribery. 
Ferguson responded by replacing Rooney, who had been limping heavily earlier, with John O'Shea, but the momentum had swung dramatically to Bayern and Robben's wonder goal capped a period of pressure. 
United had no Rooney to call on for the finale and they did not have the inspiration to mount a trademark late surge as the Premier League's last representative went out of a tournament in which they have exerted so much influence in recent seasons. 
Ferguson must now gather his team for a final assault on a fourth successive title, but there is no doubt they have taken three heavy blows as they attempt to add more silverware to the Carling Cup won against Aston Villa. 
And he will also hope Rooney has not sustained further damage to his ankle in this lost cause.
www.bbc.co.uk