Premier League Betting

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Man Utd - Blackpool,

United at home have a fearful record of 17 wins of 18 games. Only failure was a draw vs. WBA when they conceded two funny goals after 2-0 (remember how much I was happy with my -2 bet at ht). However, Blackpool are not West Ham from few seasons ago and I cannot imagine any, for them positive scenario. Nice and easy home win. 3-0 correct result.

Bet: Man Utd -1
Odd: 1.84 Betsson
Stake: 8/10

Fulham - Arsenal

The Cottagers are in very good shape, Arsenal are in a free fall and can’t see a reason why that should change today. I feel these odds are set wrong and think there’s a value on backing home side. Have been thinking about the best bet and decided not to be greedy.

Bet: Fulham +0.25
Odd: 2.25 (Canbet)
Stake: 7/10

And two small gambles (out of the record).

1.Overs in all games (Man Utd, Spurs and Man City over 3). Last day, why not? It could pay me a holiday, odd is 838.43 at 188bet.

2.In case Arry didn’t joke about Europa League. Birmingham to win + Liverpool draw. Double at 22.75, also 188bet.

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Manchester City – Juventus

Citizens defeated Chelsea at Saturday, they’re still contenders for the Premier title and seem to have a good atmosphere, despite some rumors. However, Mancini’s team already exited from Carling Cup and one more failure would be extremely difficult to explain to the boss. I expect a strong line-up tonight (could it be weak?) and serious approach. Juve are a big challenge and players will be eager to prove themselves (once more) on a big scene. Recent defensive worries don’t look too serious anymore, as Micah Richards has recovered from injury and will take his place at right-back. Shaun Wright and Mario Balotelli will be sidelined, but their positions are far from being critical.

Juve made a bleak start in Serie a with just 7 points from 5 opening games. Fortunately, they’re still just 3 points far from the top. Their defense line looks more than shaky, as they conceded 3 against Doria 3-3, Lech 3-3, Palermo 1-3 and 2 vs. Cagliari 4-2. All of those were at home and at last one, new embarrassment was avoid thankfully to Krasic who scored a hat-trick. On the paper their squad looks very strong, but their performances don’t give too much faith they can challenge for a title. Serie a will certainly be a priority over Europe and important thing is Juve have Inter on the corner (away, at Sunday). Luigi Delneri will be without injured Amauri and Quagliarella who isn’t registered for EL. Also, there’s possibility to some players be rested.

Europa League is a chance for City to get some silverware this season. They won’t get a title in Premier and already failed in Carling. Mancini must impress the bosses every day, while players are best motivated against strongest sides which Juve definitely is. Visitors haven’t impressing, lately. Weak start could turn into disaster in case of failure at Milano, European second stage could be reached even with a defeat tonight. Home win.

Bet: Man City -1ah
Odd: 2.11  Canbet
Stake: 7/10


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EL thoughts

Fulham should be favorite in the first fixture. Zamora isn’t fit, but will play. Great home record in Europe, one draw (Shakthar) and all other wins. This is the most important game in their lives.
Hamburger sacked Labadia, players definitely feel better. Decent German team with some very good players, Petric, Berg, Jansen, ZeRoberto, van Nistelroy.
The problem is final game is in Hamburg. Last season old farts from FIFA and UEFA were saying the interest of football is Barcelona to play in CL final (???!!!). So, this season interest of football (read: tv rights, advertising, bigger attendance, lack of Englishmen in town…) could be Hamburg to play at home. So would like to see Fulham in the final, but my vote goes for German side.

Liverpool - Atletico M. To be honest, have no idea about this one. Liverpool should progress, all season is in this game. But it could be the end of one (Rafa’s) era as well. Vote for Liverpool.

No bets, I’ve been just wasting my money lately.

P.s.: It was offside, right?

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Europa League

I don't have too much inspiration to write reasoning (sorry). So, just a pick:

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Atletico Madrid - Liverpool, 2 DNB @ 2.19 188bet

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Europa League - Reports

Liverpool 4 - 1 Benfica (agg 5 - 3)

Fernando Torres scored twice to help Liverpool overpower Benfica at Anfield and set up an Europa League semi-final clash with Atletico Madrid.
The Reds levelled the tie on aggregate when Dirk Kuyt met Steven Gerrard's corner and his header was allowed to stand after initially being ruled out. 
Lucas ran clear to make it 2-0 before Torres added a third on the break. 
Oscar Cardozo's drilled free-kick gave Benfica hope but Torres made sure of victory late on with a cool finish. 
The Spanish striker can look forward to returning to his former club Atletico in the last four after keeping alive Liverpool's last hope of silverware this season but, in the meantime, his side will resume their bid to secure fourth place in the Premier League with added confidence after an impressive display. 
Torres's eventual contribution more than justified Rafael Benitez's decision to replace him during Sunday's 1-1 draw with Birmingham to rest a knee injury, but initially he appeared to be struggling against the Portuguese champions and was in some discomfort.
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Wolfsburg 0 - 1 Fulham (agg 1 - 3)

Fulham produced a superb second-leg display to beat German champions Wolfsburg and seal their place in the Europa League semi-finals.
The Cottagers took 21 seconds to make amends for Wolfsburg's late goal in the first leg as Bobby Zamora neatly turned Jan Simunek and slotted his side ahead. 
Grafite saw a shot blocked on the line as the home side pressed late on but Fulham held out for a deserved win. 
They now face Hamburg in what is their first ever European semi-final. 
The success continues a sensational second European campaign for Fulham, who had eliminated defending champions Shakhtar Donetsk and favourites Juventus in the previous two rounds.
It is a fitting reward for an extremely determined and intelligent performance from the London side, who struck with their first attack and then frustrated their talented opponents. 
Wolfsburg came into the game full of confidence following Alexander Madlung's late header in the first leg, which had given them a priceless away goal and a strong foothold in the tie. 
Fulham were punished for a poor final 10 minutes at Craven Cottage last Thursday but it took them all of 21 seconds in the Volkswagen Arena to rectify the previous week's last-ditch lapse in concentration as Zamora gave them the lead straight from the kick-off. 
The in-form striker, who passed a fitness test before the game on an Achilles injury, collected a pass inside the area from fellow forward Zoltan Gera and stylishly set up a cool, side-foot finish past home keeper Diego Benaglio for his sixth Europa League goal of the season and 19th in total.
www.bbc.co.uk

Europa League

Liverpool – Benfica

Rafa made an (for Liverpool’s fans shocking) interview where he stated that Europa League have priority over 4th place in Premier! So, to exit the competition just after that would be stupid in my opinion. On the other hand Torres’ reaction when he realized he’s gonna be substituted at 60th min vs Birmingham while Gerrard at the same time keeps his head down, suggest there’s not so perfect chemistry in the dressing room. Also, Rafa demanded more resources for new players or he’ll go. I think that’s exactly what the board wants. Second solution is to sack Rafa and give hime 18 mill(?).

Benfica are without Saviola, but for me more important is Weldon who scored both goals in the first leg and is in doubt (still hasn’t been confirmed). They played at Monday and should be, at least little, tired. On the other hand they won’t lack in self-confidence. They already were in L’pool this season, humiliated Everton (I had 1 DNB). Their training session was followed by 150 supporters. Don’t know, but it seems they have a little bit better chemistry and desire for progress. Di Maria is a target of leading EPL clubs, he’ll have one motive more.

Too much reasons for both sides. I was about to take Liverpool –1.5, but gave up and will take goals in a double with the second one.

Wolfsburg – Fulham

Until Germans scored their goal at Craven Cottage, I think they were out of competition. Now they’re favorites. They’re strong side with great attacking potential. Dzeko is, as far as I’m aware, fully fit for the game. 

Fulham will play probably their most important game in the modern history. Main problem is they simply can’t defending on the road. Other problem is Dempsey is definitely out. Zamora got a knock against Wigan, will have a late fitness test, but he simply must play.

I see a high scoring game. Personally fancy Fulham to pass (instinct more than reasons), but see goals as a better option. Over 2.5. Something like 3-2, correct score.

So, double for me:
Liverpool - Benfica, Over 2.5
Wolfsburg - Fulham, Over 2.5

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Fulham 2-1 Wolfsburg

Fulham will take a narrow lead to Germany for the second leg of their Europa League quarter-final following a hard-fought victory over Wolfsburg.
After a drab first half, Bobby Zamora curled in from 20 yards just before the hour to give the home side the lead. 
Four minutes later, Zamora turned provider for Damien Duff to smash in a superb second from 12 yards. 
Alexander Madlung's late headed goal changed the complexion of the tie ahead of next Thursday's return leg. 
It was a late blow that Fulham could have avoided after seemingly being in control courtesy of their two-goal salvo in the space of four second half minutes. 
However, Wolfsburg were rewarded for their persistence in the final 10 minutes and will now be confident that they can progress to the semi-finals. 
The reigning German champions, may not be having as successful season as last campaign but they remain a potent foe, who came into this match having lost only one of their last 10 matches. 
Their strength is built on the formidable attacking duo of Edin Dzeko and Grafite, who overcame injury and illness respectively to start this match, which may partly explain why they were largely anonymous throughout. 
The best opportunities the pair had were presented to them by the home side - in particularly an off-colour Brede Hangeland - but these they spurned. 
The most notable of these was a headed chance from Dzeko, which took the striker by surprise after Hangeland had completely missed his clearing header.
Fulham have a potent attacking threat of their own in the shape of Bobby Zamora and the big striker once again showed why he is so often mentioned as a potential England striker. 
It was he who broke the deadlock in the match in the 59th minute, collecting an infield pass from Zoltan Gera before manoeuvring himself into a shooting position on the edge of the box and curling a superb shot past keeper Diego Benaglio. 
Four minutes later he turned provider as the home side doubled their advantage, holding up a pass from Danny Murphy in the box with his back to goal before teeing up Duff to emphatically slam home from 12 yards. 
It was a burst of attacking precision that had until then being completely lacking from the home side, who had the best chances of the first half but saw them spurned by Zamora, from a tight angle, and Clint Dempsey, who fired wide just before the break. 
That Fulham did not see out the game with their two-goal lead in tact is largely due to their own failings. 
They gifted the visitors too much possession in dangerous areas and despite the Germans spurning two chances through tame shooting from Grafite and substitute Obefami Martins their quality eventually shone through.
In the 88th minute, Zvjezdan Misimovic's quickly taken corner was returned to him and his cross was headed home by Madlung to give Wolfsburg more than just hope to take with them back to Germany.

www.bbc.co.uk

Fulham – Wolfsburg

Fulham started to think about this game just after the humiliating of Juve. They have every right to be optimistic, knocking out Italian giant and ex competition winner - Shakhtar give them enough reasons for it. At the same time, they should be aware of their shape on the road. In Premier, they have a single win of 16 games. In Europe played a 1-1 draw in Ukraine which could be characterized as a miracle, more than a luck (19 attempts for Shakhtar and 17(!) corners) and 1-3 defeat in Italy. So, their chances are in this game, not in re-match. Zamora is rested, in fact all squad has been rested and they’ll give their best shot tonight.

 

Ex German champion eliminated Villarreal and Rubin in past two rounds. They have three consecutive wins in domain league (with three clean sheets) and their self confidence should be very high. They gain an attacking style of play and I doubt they’ll change it for tonight’s clash. From their point of view, they’ll play against average English team and won’t give them too much respect. Main problem is appearance of their best striker Edin Dzeko who is rated 50-50 to play. Even without him, Wolfsburg have huge attacking potential.

 

Both sides have reasons to believe in progress. Maybe I could give a small advantage to the hosts, but at the same time expect an open game from the start and goals. 888sport offer 2.00. Over 2.5.

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Fulham 4-1 Juventus (agg 5-4)

Fulham produced a stunning second-leg comeback against nine-man Juventus to make the Europa League quarter-finals.
David Trezeguet appeared to have ended the tie with an early goal for Juve but Bobby Zamora soon fired Fulham level. 
Fabio Cannavaro's sending off for a professional foul on Zoltan Gera swung the game in Fulham's favour before the Hungarian's neat finish put them ahead. 
Gera's penalty levelled the tie overall and substitute Clint Dempsey's chip won it before Jonathan Zebina was sent off. 
Fulham fans have been treated to some inspiring Europa League football this season, and their side did not disappoint, once again putting on a gripping and passionate display. 
The Cottagers, trailing 3-1 from the first leg at the Stadio Olimpico in Turin, still retained hope of reaching the last eight due to Dickson Etuhu's solitary away goal.
That Juventus did their utmost to extinguish such fragile belief by taking the lead inside three minutes and still failed is largely a testimony to the spirit and belief that permeates through Roy Hodgson's side, and partly owing to the controversial decision of referee Bjorn Kuipers to send off Cannavaro. 
The intent of Cannavaro's foul - the result of a clash with Gera as he eyed a clear route to goal - was uncertain and there was a likelihood that Zebina could have covered the Hungarian midfielder's run but Kuipers felt a goal-scoring opportunity had been denied and showed the Italian national captain a straight red.
The dismissal ended what had been an albeit brief mauling for Cannavaro at the hands of the Fulham front line, and England hopeful Zamora in particular, who made good on his pre-match promise to get the better of the World Cup winner.

www.bbc.co.uk

Fulham - Juventus

Fulham are two goals down (1-3) after the first game. Positive for them is scored away goal, but also not so bad and competitive display. They have good home record in Premier, but also in European competitions (9 wins, 4 draws). Many of those European games weren’t against the clubs of Juve’s calibre, but Cottagers have already beaten there Man Utd and Liverpool in Premier. However, boss Hodgson will be without his rock in the midfield and key player in my opinion, Danny Murphy, who is suspended. As well as Jonathan Greening. Andy Johnson and John Pantsil are injured, David Elm ill and Nicky Shorey and Stefano Okaka are both ineligible. It’s a total of 7 players who are usually in contention for the first team, but the true is Fulham used to play without most of them and only blow for them, beside Murphy, is doubtful appearance of key defender Brede Hangeland who will have a late fitness test.

 

Juve have two goals lead from the first game, possess more quality and much more experience playing in Europe. But, there’re also few facts that don’t go in their favor. First, they’re not so happy on English soil, 2 wins, 4 draws and 11 defeats so far (though most of them were played in Champions League). Then, their injury worries look more serious than hosts’. Gigi Buffon is injured, his replacement Manninger too. That gives Zaccheroni two choices. Old Chimenti (conceded 3 at Sunday vs. Siena at home 3-3) or youngster Pinsogliois. Also, block in front will be without key defender Chiellini and two more in back line, Legrottaglie and Caceres! This makes from a defensive attitude very risky approach.

 

Cottagers really believe (most important for this bet) they can progress. Smaller pitch gives the advantage to their aggression and decreases Italians’ technical superiority. Result from the first match won’t allow home side to give up, while on the other side Juve won’t defend 0-0. Also, Del Piero and Trezeguet can score at anytime. I see goals on both sides and see over 2.5 as a logic conclusion.

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Shakhtar Donetsk 1-1 Fulham (agg 2 - 3)

Fulham produced a backs-to-the-wall display to seal a famous Europa League win against Uefa Cup holders Shakhtar.
The Ukrainian side dominated before Brede Hangeland headed in Damien Duff's free-kick with Fulham's first chance. 
Jadson swept home an equaliser from 12 yards after great work from Douglas Costa on the right-hand side. 
Danny Murphy was sent off for kicking out at Darijo Srna late on but Fulham held on to set up a mouth-watering last-16 clash against Juventus. 
It was a resilient, if not pretty, performance from Roy Hodgson's men against the side who won the competition last season in its previous guise as the Uefa Cup. 
But the hardy Fulham fans who travelled to near-freezing Donetsk will care little about the manner of a triumph that should be classed among the finest in the club's history.
Shakhtar had not played since the first leg, because of the Ukrainian league's winter break, but showed no signs of rustiness as they began the game in electric fashion. 
With five Brazilians in the hosts' team, the South American influence was plain to see from the slick one-touch passing that left Fulham chasing shadows from the first whistle.
www.bbc.co.uk

Shakhtar - Fulham

Ukrainians are the previous year winners and surely one of the main candidates to win the competition again. In the first game at Craven Cottage, they were dominant, had a safe draw before Zamora struck an amazing hit for 1-2. At home, Shakhtar are always favorites, play attacking, have a pitch with extremely short grass that allow them a short pass play and their home record looks scary. In domain league, they have all 8 home wins with 26 goals scored and just four conceded. In Europe, they exited CL qualification after knocking out from Romanians – Timisoara (on away goals, two draws) and after that smashed Sivasspor (2-0), Partizan (4-1), Toulouse (4-0) and in last group game where progress were assured drew vs. Club Brugge 0-0. Main problem for Shakhtar could be a league break in Ukraine, as they played last competitive game 12.12., but in the same round last year they eliminated another Premier League side Tottenham (2-0 at home, 1-1 away). Boss Mircea Lucescu has two concerns, defender Razvan Rat and striker Luiz Adriano are both doubtful. 

Fulham traveled to Ukraine without a pressure as their status in domain league is safe. Boss Roy Hodgson doesn’t have too big squad to rotate players and I expect their best eleven from the start. Cottagers are typical home side and have a lots of problems on the road, in Premier League and in Europe as well. In Europa League, they managed just one away win Basel (3-2). Hodgson stated he has no intention of playing for a draw, but attacking formation against Shakhtar on the road could be only a death penalty. I expect their cautious start with not too much risk. Their advantage could be set-pieces and individual efforts of Damien Duff or excellent Bobby Zamora. However, Fulham will be without on-loan defender Nicky Shorey who is ineligible for the match, while full-back Paul Konchesky is still injured. 

Hosts are favorites here. They have top quality team, proved ambitions, their pitch and have much more experience of playing European competitions. Fulham have their hidden jokers, but this would be a tough test for any of top clubs in Europe and I simply don’t think they can cope with it. Also, freezing temperature (-4c is expected tonight in Donetsk, in London +6) and a cold wind won’t help. Best bet would be -1 ah, the alternative is -1.5.

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One fast pick

UEFA Europa League

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Villarreal - Wolfsburg 1, 1.80 at 888sport

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Everton - Benfica

Everton have noticed a run of six competitive games without a win (3 draws and 3 defeats). Main reason for that and for underachieving so far (only 3 wins from 10 games in Premier and 13^th place) is injury list where in one moment nine regular players appeared. Moyes still has a lots of problems with injured players, but beside Arteta (has repeated his knee injury and will be absent for a while) situation becomes better. The biggest problem lately, defense line should be decent with Hibbert, Yobo, Distin and Baines. In first game, Toffees got not a slap, but fist in the face (0-5). Moyes tried to rest some players, push some youngsters on the big scene and suffered pure humiliation. Louis Saha is in doubt, while John Heitinga and Lucas Neill are both ineligible. Everton have a great record in Europe at Goodison and have netted in all 10 of their European games at Goodison under David Moyes.

 

Benfica have decent squad and their performances so far look respectable. Strong midfield with Pablo Aimar as a playmaker, new Man.Utd. transfer target Ángel Di María on the wing and Saviola and Nuno Gomes in front scored 33 goals on last 10 games. But, the obvious is they’re not the same side on away games. For the weekend lost vs. Sporting Braga 0-2, in Europa League lost in Greece vs. AEK 0-1, before that in qualification were defeated from unknown Ukrainian side Vorskla 1-2. In fact they haven’t won in last seven European games on the road.  Manager Jorge Jesus will make some changes to first eleven. In front the goal will be Brazilian Júlio César who plays only in Europe, while mentioned Aimar should start the game from the bench.

 

Dignity is hurt and Everton seek revenge. No room for resting the players and I believe the best eleven will play (maybe without unfit Saha). Win tonight would boost team morale and game like this is necessary for getting back on track. Benfica won’t surrender, but would be absolutely satisfied with a draw. Little problem is bookies also got the latest team info and odds have decreased in past few hours. However, still worth of a bet. So, 1 dnb.

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Everton - AEK

Everton started new Premier League campaign with three defeats from opening four games and although Moyes and other officials claim opposite, Joleon Lescot’s departure is a big hit for club from Goodison. Defence line is so far the weakest link on the pitch. Another hit came from medical report as another key defender and skipper, Phil Neville, is likely to be out for three months with knee ligament damage. Silvain Distin and Joseph Yobo simply need some time to gel up, while new signing from Atletico Madrid John Heitinga is ineligible for Europa League. But, that’s not the end, another defender, Tony Hibbert, is suspended. So, serious problem have become a real headache. Good news are Everton is still a big favorite tonight and between resting key players and winning for raising self confidence, David Moyes will very probably choose the second option (as in previous occasions). £10mill. weight signing from Locomotiv Moscow, Diniyar Bilyaletdinov, will finally make his full debut (so far just three minutes on the pitch). Other players if fully fit and only dilemma is will Moyes rest some of his keys for Blackburn at Sunday. 

Beside they finished fourth in the previous campaign in domain league, AEK is probably the best Greek club beside Olympiakos and Pao. They started domain campaign with both opening wins, while in European previous round eliminated decent Romanians – Vaslui (1-2 away, 3-0 at home). They’re typical represent of Greek football. Players with great technical skill, they have a high level of fighting spirit and their play is really nice to watch. But, at the same tame, shaky defences (AEK’s goalie-Sebastian Saja is in more than decent shape, though) and lack of physical strength and tactics usually bring a bad outcome when they play in European competitions. AEK have noticed just a single win in last eleven European games on the road and their record is especially bad when they play against British clubs (Everton haven’t lost at home in Europe for about four years, btw.). No big missings for tonight match and despite AEK can produce some good display and score, they’re still underdogs at Goodison Park. Their chances are in underestimating by the opponent and in Everton’s defence line.

Home side will try to return some of their self confidence and fill the Greek’s net, but at the same time their problems in defence line shouldn’t be overlooked. AEK will try to make some mess and avoid defeat at least, but true is anything except Everton’s win would be a first class surprise. However, I see goals on both sides and odds on over are more than acceptable. 2.12 at Pinnacle. Over.

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CSKA Sofia - Fulham

CSKA Sofia is second placed team in domain league from previous season. They’re typical home side, last season noticed 13 wins (draw and a defeat) from 15 home games and just eight goals conceded. Recent one started in the same manner, both home wins with goal difference 7-0. As the most of East European sides, UEFA competitions accepts as more than a game. Then domain leagues drop in the shadow, players are fully motivated, public expectations are the highest… In the previous rounds, Bulgarians first eliminated Irish side Derry City (1-0 home, 1-1 away), then surprisingly (or not) Dinamo Moscow. Goalless draw at home, then 2-1 on the road. Now, appetites are even bigger. Today’s visitors come from the best league in Europe, full stadium is expected (about 40 000) and great support won’t miss. Key striker Manchev started last match from the bench and he seems fully fit after 9 months brake. Only injury concern is attacking midfielder Marquinos and his appearance is under a question mark. 

Fulham finished the previous season at the 7th place and reach Europa League. After four rounds in new one, they made 50% record with two wins and same defeats. In the first qualification round, they easy passed Lithuanian side Vetra (both games 3-0), but more problems faced against fourth Russian team Amkar. At the end, 3-1 home win was enough for progress despite the away defeat 0-1. Before the trip to Bulgaria, boss Roy Hodgson surprised the domain audience leaving at home nine players who appear in away win (2-1) over Everton, last Saturday! Goalkeeper David Stockdale and defender John Pantsil are the only players who will probably keep their places. So, chance will be given to some fringe players, like Jonathan Greening, Bjorn Helge Riise, Erik Nevland or Zoltan Gera. Though this team still should be very competitive and English football is miles above the Bulgarian, Fulham don’t have too much experience in UEFA competitions and their previous games showed the focus will be mainly on domain league. Some English clubs successfully played in Europe with the second team, Bolton few years ago for example, but personally I can not see Fulham winning here. And think, they would be fully satisfied with one point from this encounter.

The fact Fulham will appear without nine regular players is well known to all bookmakers, odds are rapidly decreasing. But on the other hand, it is well known to the bettors, stakes rapidly increase as well and this game already became a “public bet”. However, I can’t see Fulham will defeat the highly motivated hosts and despite draw would satisfy the both sides, I think Bulgarians are capable to make a slight surprise and odd arround 1.70 is worth of bet for me. I mean dnb, or AH 0.0. A draw is covered, of course.

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Slavia 3-0 Crvena Zvezda

Crvena Zvezda lost from Slavija Prague 3:0 (1:0) in the first game of Europa League qualification.

Two goals is scored by Zdenjek Šenkerik (35th and 64th minute), and the third Stanislav Vlček in the 81st minute. Zvezda have started a very defensive (three center-backs and one forward), but conception is broken in the 35th minute. Slavija almost all the time dominated the ground and come to the deservedly convincing victory, with a few missed opportunities. Re-match will be played next Thursday in Belgrade.

Slavija: Hanuš, Hubaček, Čelustka, Raged, Hloušek (from 89 'Janda), Šenkerik (72' Vlček), Suci, Belaid, Vomačka, Volešak, Cerni

Crvena Zvezda: Pavlovic - Srećković (from 46 'Perović), Ninkov, Savić, Tutorić, Vilotić - Savi, Isah (70' Ignjatijević), Bogdanovic (from 92 'Nikolic), Lazetic - Lekic

Slavia Praha - Crvena Zvezda

Slavia finally broke the domination of biggest rival Sparta and won a title in Czech championship. They were especially impressive at home ground where won 12 from 15 games with three draws! But, at the start of European campaign they face a real disaster against Moldavian side Sheriff. After a goalless draw in the first encounter, in re-match in Praha, Slavia had a 1-0 lead through the most of the game, but conceded goal deep in the stoppage time and finished appearance in the Champions League! Domain competition also started badly with one defeat and two draws. But, in the last two rounds Slavia made two wins in a row (Bohemians Praha, 3-1 at home and Budejovice, 1-0 away) and it seems players returned their self-confidence. They will surely need it, because the next match is probably the game of the season. Elimination from Europa League is something that nobody in the club want to think about. The main problem is they have many new players in the team in simply need some time to become an entirety. It was obvious against Budejovice when Slavia made just a single decent goal chance (and scored from it). However, Crvena Zvezda shouldn’t be too high obstacle, but all in the club is well aware about the hell atmosphere in Belgrade (even have been stating how they afraid of it!) and will desperately looking for a win with two goals difference at least. Boss Karel Jarolim has a headache about goalkeepers. New signing Denis Romanovs has a 4 euro matches ban, his replacement Vaniak (38 years old) already made some big errors in first league game and third choice is young Hanus (21 years old). 

Crvena Zvezda again got the new management and many players with high contracts left the club before the season start. President Lukic take every opportunity to state this team is cheapest in the history (my personal opinion is the worst at the same time). The team leaders are Ninkov (defender), guy with the bright future –Aval Issah (defensive midfielder) and ex international Lazetic (right winger). Other who deserves to be mentioned is young striker Perovic. Boss is Vladimir Petrovic, one of the five best players in the club’s history (officially) and his main quality is to motivate players till the limits of fanaticism. However, season started unexpectedly good for the club. In the first round, Zvezda eliminated Slovenian Rudar (1-0 away and 4-0 home). In the second, against Dinamo Tbilisi, first 0-2 defeat on the road, then one of the most interesting games ever seen. In re-match, Dinamo had 1-0 and 2-1 lead, but Zvezda leading with the noise from the crowd scored four times for 5-2 at the end! Petrovic, beside high motivation skills, also has an old-fashioned view on the game. Against both opponents, Zvezda played with three defensive midfielders(!) and right winger in the midfield! All five goals against Dinamo, team scored after the actions on right side and all four goals conceded after big defensive errors! So, I guess problem will be when Zvezda face serious club (like Slavia, for example) who will know how to use it. Team morale which is very high, additionally has been raised with president’s promise, in case of progress every player will be rewarded with, for club’s conditions, enormous 20 000 euros!

Home side will surely attack and won’t be satisfied with a win by just one goal difference, but also their young goalie will have a debut for the first team. Zvezda will have support of 1500-2000 fans, surely have the courage for fight and can score. For me, Slavia is a favorite here, but see goals on both sides. Pinnacle offer 2.25. Over.
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Motherwell 0-1 Llanelli

Motherwell boss Jim Gannon suffered an embarrassing defeat by Llanelli in Europa League qualifying in his first match in charge of the Scottish club.
The Steelmen enjoyed plenty of the ball early on, but were stifled by some stiff Welsh resistance. 
Llanelli took a shock lead on 28 minutes on a rare foray forward, when Stuart Jones headed in from a corner (photo). 
Motherwell tried to get back in the match but looked disjointed and could not convert any of their chances. 
The defeat means Motherwell go to Parc y Scarlets in a week's time looking to salvage their Europa League future. 
Gannon had to deal with the loss of nine regulars from last season's first-team squad, but his side still looked good in the opening exchanges, and with just five minutes on the clock should have taken the lead through Jamie Murphy.
The midfielder beat Llanelli's offside trap to collect a ball over the top from Ross Forbes, but instead of shooting himself he tried to square to John Sutton, allowing the visitors to regroup and clear. 
The Welsh Premier League runners-up were unsettled in the centre of defence when in quick succession, Stuart Jones was booked for a rash challenge, then Lee Jarman was forced to leave the field injured. 
For all their possession, Motherwell found it difficult to break down a resolute 11-man defensive unit, which served to frustrate the hosts and mute their fans. 
On the rare occasions that the ball reached Reds striker Rhys Griffiths he found himself isolated with no supporting outlet. 
But the Welsh side took the lead against the run of play through Jones on 28 minutes.
The home side conceded a corner defending player-manager Andy Legg's long throw, and from the set piece Jones stole in at the back post to bundle a header past goalkeeper Michael Fraser. 
Motherwell attempted to press from the wide areas, but their delivery into the box left a lot to be desired, and they were booed off the Airdrie pitch at 1-0 down at the break. 
After the restart, the Steelmen's play exhibited more pace and purpose, with O'Brien looking sharp on the right. 
His play set up Steven McGarry then Sutton with headers, although neither could convert, and before long the urgency had fizzled out of the hosts' game. 

Murphy shot wide from a volley, and substitute Paul Slane also went close with a drive before, with seconds remaining, forcing Llanelli goalkeeper Ashley Morris to make his first serious save of the match with a fine strike. 
Forbes also had one last effort which Morris held easily, but it was too little too late from Motherwell, and the Welsh club held on for a memorable victory, much to the disgust of the home support. 

Motherwell: Fraser, Saunders, Craigan, Reynolds, Hammell, O'Brien (McHugh 74), Lasley (Slane 46), Forbes, McGarry, Sutton, Murphy.
Subs Not Used: Kosiorowski, Darren Smith, Fitzpatrick, Hutchinson, Page. 

Llanelli: Ashley Morris, Legg (Warlow 51), Howard, Stuart Jones, Jarman (Thomas 16), Phillips, Mumford, Corbisiero, Venables, Griffiths, Craig Jones (Follows 65).
Subs Not Used: Craig Morris, Jenkins, Moses, John. 
Booked: Stuart Jones, Griffiths, Howard. 
Goals: Stuart Jones 28. 

Att: 4,307 
Ref: Tero Nieminen (Finland)

www.bbc.co.uk

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Buducnost - Polonia Warszawa

0 - 1 I. Koziol  54.min.
0 - 2 T. Jodlowiec 65.min.

Finally some action!

After few days of forced break from betting, tomorrow we'll have finally something. Qualification games for UEFA Europa League are on schedule. I already have something on my mind, but will make some additional digging and post some picks no earlier than tomorrow.

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