Tottenham - Arsenal

Spurs are in the race for CL spot (three points less than Man City with a game in hand) and this is more than “just” a derby game. They have lost just once against Arsenal in last eight competitive games (0-3 at Emirates) and lost also once in last 26 league games at White Hart Lane. Peter Crouch will be in the team after he served the suspension, Pienaar is rated as in doubt.

For the Gunners, this is the very last chance. Just one win of last six in the league and they’re seven points below United (with this game in hand). Also we’ll see how they will react on 102th minute shocker three days ago. However, Arsenal are still the best travellers in Premier (29 points of 15 games) and are undefeated in all six away games in 2011. Tragedian, Emmanuel Eboue, will be probably replaced by recovered Bacary Sagna. Denilson, Rosicky and Almunia are also fit.

Both sides are desperate for points, but don’t have impressive defensive records lately. I think this would be an open game (play for a goal more), not a tactical battle. Odds are more than acceptable.

Bet: Over 2.5
 Odd: 1.97 188bet, Pinnacle
 Stake: 8/10
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Leeds - Arsenal

Leeds are really good in FA Cup recently, knocked Man Utd  at Trafford and played a draw at White Hart Lane last year, in this campaign resisted at Emirates (almost won, actually). Also, United will be confident as they’re undefeated at home in last seven and failed to score only once in last 15 games. The pressure is off (understandable) and Elland will be packed. No way I’ll be against them in these circumstances. Becchio  got some injury against Scunny and is rated as doubtful, but I’d be shocked if he doesn’t start (as I was shocked with Cattermole at Sunday, though).

Problem with Arsenal is they’re missing too many chances and if don’t score until 60th minute, become nervous. On the other hand if Gunners manage to score in first 15-20 mins, they will run the riot. Leeds kept them quiet in the first encounter, will they be able to do that again? No, I don’t believe in it. Arsenal have Wigan for the weekend and Ipswich for six days (after 0-1) and nobody could really assume the team that Wenger will name. Before the Emirates’ draw, Gunners noticed three consecutive wins over Leeds, scoring 13 goals in those. Arsenal haven’t been knocked in the third round in past 15 years.  

I won’t be involved in the final outcome, but high scoring game and away win is my expected scenario. Don’t think Leeds can keep it tight again and I’m sure they really believe in progress. On the other hand, Wenger knows here’s no reply. Goals would be my call.

Bet: Over 3
Odd: 2.06 188bet
Stake: 8/10

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Arsenal – West Ham

Arsenal look really great at the moment. And although this is very popular bet today, I’ll be involved in their game third time in a row. They demolished the Toon in Cup game during the midweek (4-0 away), at the same time resting some key players. Big  boost for Wenger is Fabregas, Walcott and Bendtner are fit and all 3 played at Newcastle (Walcott and Bendtner scored three times). It’s a big squad now and Wenger has no problem to name 11. They also score for fun lately. In 4 home games scored 14 goals (conceded 5) and in 2 CL games scored 11 goals! However in last two games at Emirates, they didn’t look impressive at all. First were shocked by WBA (2-3), then defeated Brum 2-1 but game was below their standards. So, I expect they’ll be very serious today. Arsenal are unbeaten in last 7 games against West Ham, while Man City is the only side that kept a clean sheet at Emirates in 2010..

After  9 rounds, West Ham are stuck to the bottom with just 6 points collected. They’re the side from whom I always expected to turn the corner and start moving away from a dangerous zone. Last season they made a decent spending on a transfer market, but unfortunately most of the signings were just money wasting (can’t not to think on Diamanti and transfer of 6 mill.). In this season nothing has changed and Hammers are living another bleak season in Premier. Also, at Tuesday they played 120 minutes against Stoke (won 3-1 after ET) with Grant naming very strong side. They’re tired and last thing they need is top side on the road that plays fast and attacking football. Next, Grant will miss his skipper Matthew Upson in the center of defense and striker Frederic Piquionne. Statistic also looks pessimistic as West Ham have managed just one clean sheet in 9 games, scored only 7 (lowest in Premier) and have failed to score in 5 of their last 6 games against Arsenal.

Arsenal look like a mean machine at the moment. They’ll face, I think it’s fair to say weak, slow and tired side without a captain and major threat in the attack. Despite it’s a London derby, anything except a high scoring home win would be sensation in my opinion. I expect a very long day for the Hammers and 3-0, 4-0 scoreline.

Bet: Arsenal -2.0
Odd: 2.00 bet365
Stake: 8/10

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Arsenal - Shakhtar Donetsk

Arsenal have six points from first two games and scored nine in those. First destroyed Braga at Emirates (6-0), then easy past Belgrade (3-1) and with tonight’s win the Gunners would practically pass the group. When they play Champions League at Emirates, home wins are common thing. Since the loss against Inter Milano seven years ago, Arsenal have noticed 17 wins with 4 draws and 12 of those 17 wins were with 2 or more goals margin. Wenger has plenty of problems in the back line. Koscielny, Sagna and Vermaelen are out (adding on that Fabianski who is in). In past, problems with defensive line meant Arsenal will be even more attacking. But, also some good news from medical service. Fabregas, Bendtner and Theo Walcott are all fit. Fabregas will probably take some part in the game as a preparation for City, while rest two should start the game.

Shakhtar also come in this game with six points. However, they had much more problems in those two then Arsenal. At first game at home, they had lots of problems to break Partizan’s defense (won 1-0). 3-0 at Braga suggests dominating win, but true is home side had possession and few great chances that missed. Then came counter attack, home attempts to save the game, another counter and 0-3 at the end. However, beside domination in Ukraine (first place, with 5 points margin and goal difference 25-5 after 13 rounds), they play very well in Europe (lost away just once since 2008, but were playing in Europa League). They need home win against Braga for second place and tonight won’t have any pressure. However, it’s not like I believe in Lucescu’s announcing they’ll attack Arsenal trying to use their defensive problems. It would be a suicide, more likely. However, only injury concern is very important players, Douglas Costa, and we’ll see is Lucescu ready to risk with him (I think he’s not).

I don’t think Wenger has too much space for calculation here (beside leaving Fabregas on the bench). It’s big difference being first, or second. In the rest three games, they have to travel twice (one trip is in Ukraine), failure today would cut the space for Wenger to play with rotating squad. On the other hand, win tonight with the win in last round against Partizan at home would bring the top. And of course, considering quality difference, Arsenal are way above. Odds are higher than I expected. Home win.

Bet: Arsenal -0.75
Odd: 1.91 Stan James
Stake: 8/10

Probably one pick from Championship, later today.

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Arsenal 1-4 Chelsea

Chelsea secured a top three Premier League finish and entry into next season's Champions League group stages with a comprehensive win at Arsenal. 
Alex powerfully headed Chelsea in front and Nicolas Anelka thundered in a 25-yard strike to dobule Chelsea's lead. 
Arsenal's Kolo Toure put Ashley Cole's cross into his own net before a Nicklas Bendtner header pulled it back to 3-1. 
The Gunners rallied but Chelsea wrapped up the win when Florent Malouda slotted in after Anelka's shot hit the post. 

Arsenal will now be left to negotiate an open draw qualification for next season's Champions League, which could potentially pit them against a team from the German, Spanish or Italian leagues. 

Both teams were coming off the back of elimination from this season's competition in midweek and, while the win will provide some consolation for Chelsea, Arsenal's misery will only be compounded by the loss.It was a defeat that seemed unlikely when Arsenal burst out of the blocks and seemed set to score as they swarmed all over Chelsea.

Arsenal: Fabianski, Sagna, Toure, Silvestre, Gibbs, Walcott (Adebayor 68), Nasri, Song Billong (Denilson 67), Diaby (Bendtner 59), Fabregas, Van Persie.
Subs Not Used: Mannone, Ramsey, Djourou, Eboue. 
Booked: Fabregas. 
Goals: Bendtner 70. 

Chelsea: Cech, Bosingwa (Ivanovic 77), Alex, Terry, Ashley Cole, Essien, Mikel, Lampard, Anelka, Drogba, Malouda (Ballack 88).
Subs Not Used: Hilario, Di Santo, Kalou, Belletti, Mancienne. 
Goals: Alex 28, Anelka 39, Toure 49 og, Malouda 86. 

Att: 60,075 
Ref: Phil Dowd (Staffordshire).

www.bbc.co.uk

Arsenal - Chelsea

The Gunners, as today’s opponent exited Champions League, but the way how they did it is different. They were outplayed at Emirates, and crushed with reality they can’t be equal with the bests. Two fast hits by Park and Ronaldo ended the game before it really started. Wenger talks about the youngness, big talents, glory in the future, hegemony in Europe… But, the impression is, however that story looked sympathetic at the start, he looses support, first from club’s management, then from the fans. Another season without a trophy and it is clear, without an improvement, next one won’t be too much better. Plus, rumors about Fabregas and Adebayor are leaving the club at the summer, became louder. Wenger responded with the intention to bring some experienced players. Hm…Today, lads will try to change the picture from Utd. game and prove their worth. Another reason for a headache is brilliant Arshavin has been suffering from a virus and wasn’t in training process. The alternative is Bendtner, who btw. was again star of the tabloids (see Saturday's gossip column). Clichy and Gallas are still sidelined, while Silvestre is probably returning back in team (to substitute young Gibbs at the left back, I guess).

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So, what was that?! Tragic defeat, Uefa’s conspiracy against English clubs, or just a stupidity of one man who wanted more attention? After the Moscow’s final, the Blues were saying can’t be worse. Hm…Yes, it can. Chelsea played both games almost perfect, but the first goal attempt, far in additional time was enough to bury Chelsea’s dreams about the throne. Now, they have to forget it fast (how?) and with clear minds travel to visit the neighbors on the north. As the hosts, Blues secured their place in Champions League next season, won’t have too much competitive motives, till the end. After Scolari’s leaving, Chelsea plays like born again, just one defeat from last 20 competitive games! Guus Hiddink is maestro of his profession, but will have a very difficult task, to turn players’ sadness into rage. He’ll have the same eleven available. Three points today won’t change too much, but all will feel much better. 

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Arsenal will try to prove that they are good as the other members of big four. Chelsea already knows that, Blues will try to burn Emirates just to improve their mood. I think we’ll watch a weird game. The Gunners will attack Chelsea, who is enough pissed even without that. So, I expect an open derby game and goals. 888sport offers 2.10. Over.

Tuesday view

Will try to forget previous week as fast as I can. Bad luck followed (let to be honest) with some wrong judgements resulted with worst run of results that I remember. Little satisfaction was game on Valley where Charlton trashed Norwich, realising my 3.65 bet. Bad (or maybe not) thing is recent offer is very poor and fast recover is not possible. Anyway I won't make the same mistake and will skip Skandinavian games (at least till I will be able to see some consistence in team's form, ambition...).

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Two big semi-finals are in front. Tomorrow Chelsea will host Barca. Home win will be my bet, but tomorrow about that. Tonight, Emirates will be the place where will be decided the first traveller to Rome. Arsenal will try to make a wonder (I think, that's a correct word). We'll watch surely different game than the first. Arsenal knows how to beat Utd. (Chelsea and Liverpool, too). Robin Van Persie has fully recovered and Arsene Wenger can count on him. Gunners are the strongest when nobody counts on them! But, statistic is against home side. It says Arsenal haven't eliminated some English team, ever. They haven't ever passed after 0-1 defeat in the first game (four times). Man.Utd. has 25 games in CL without a defeat! In last four CL away games, they didn't concede a single goal! That facts are enough to be frighten. For me, the most important thing is Vidic and Rio will play together. I think Utd. can (and will) score and it's impossible to concede three times. I don't even think about betting on this one. Will be a spectacle and I'll just enjoy in the footie.

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For fans of fixed games will be interesting in France 2, Vannes Olimpique hosts Berr. Chateauroux. Home side is safe in the middle, while visitors are fighting to avoid relegation. Odds for an away win is about 3.10. I've found on some different forums and sites this game as a pick of the day. Simple logic: hosts don't need, visitors do. But, Vannes has just one defeat from 16 home games (France 2 is also known as a "home wins" league), lost vs Bastia 0-1, 28.11.2008.. Chateauroux won in the last away game (Sedan Ardennes, 4-3), but, before that they had a disaster run of results on the road.They're as Vannes a typical home team. I don't think this game worths even a gamble bet, but it's on You. If somebody wish to try, Pinnacle offers 3.14 (and it's decreasing, recently), Expekt 3.10.

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Betting brake will be over tomorrow. So, stay tuned, some analyzes will follow.

Cheers, Dule 

Arsenal - Villarreal

Arsenal improved their performance in the last couple of weeks and now we can talk about not so bad season for them. Fabregas and Adebayor are finally recovered and with them on the pitch, squad looks much stronger. Gunners secured 4th place in Premier. They beat Wigan Athletic, 4-1 on the road and that was the fifth straight league win. They qualified in FA Cup semi-final and tonight have a chance to do the same in Champions League. They fought the draw in the first game on El Madrigal thankfully to magnificent strike by Emanuel Adebayor and tonight have to finish the job. Despite some injury problems (Gallas, Clichy, Djourou and Almunia won't play), Wenger's boys are the clear favorites and wait the game full of confidence.

Spanish side traditionally plays very well in Europe. In the first game, even without maybe the best player Santi Cazorla, made a lots of problems for Arsenal and minimal win wouldn't be undeserved. They play not so good, recently. Just one win in last five competitive games (Athletic Bilbao 2-0 at home). Last round's defeat at home against Malaga 0-2 wasn't good introduction for tonight's game. But the biggest problem is missing second best player, Marcos Senna who injured against Malaga. So, two very important midfield player are out. Cani and Mati Fernandez have also some injury problem and their appearance is under the question mark.

I don't think Villarreal can resist on Emirates and expect the confirmation of Arsenal's excellent run of results. Home win is about 1.55. But, the stake is the semi-final and it's hard to believe home side will keep the minimal lead. Expekt offers 2.35 for handicap and that's my choice. Home handicap win!

Porto-Man.Utd.

Can Porto make a wonder? I don't care too much, but care about their brave performance. They attacked United at Old Trafford(!) and tonight have a chance to fill their dreams. I don't have a single reason to suspect their intention to attack, again. But, on the other half of pitch will be Man.Utd., rested, fully recovered (perhaps with Rio and Berbatov, too) and thirsty for blood. Beside I can't wait the start of game, my only logic conclusion is three or more goals. 888 offers 2.00 and I accept. Over!