Sunderland - Chelsea

Sunderland perhaps made a great deal selling Bent for 24mill, but on the other hand that left them without too much options in attack. For tonight’s game, Danny Welbeck is sidelined which should mean Asamoah Gyan will be alone in front line (new signing Muntari isn’t available). Without intention to put his qualities in doubt, he’s best as support forward and don’t think he alone is capable to seriously harm Chelsea’s back four. Sunderland have very good home record with just one defeat (Blackpool 0-2) out of 11 games. They stayed undefeated against Gunners (1-1) and Man Utd (0-0). However, against Chelsea they have unreal stats. 3-0 won at Stamford ended a run of 11 consecutive defeats (last five at home).

Chelsea started to show some signs of waking up with two league wins against Blackburn at home 2-0 and Bolton away 4-0. Torres won’t be in a team tonight, but his arrival (as well as capture of David Luiz) should be a real boost and recover of title hopes. On the other hand, failure at the Stadium of Light would end it very fast. Chelsea have the best defensive record (19 goals conceded) with Cech impressing lately, Drogba has returned something of his old shape, Anelka scored 6 goals in last 5 league games against Sunderland and I believe in their good display tonight.

Despite that very good record against Sunderland, Chelsea won four of mentioned five at Stadium of Light by one. Bearing in mind their humiliation in reverse fixture, I think it could be something more.

Bet: Chelsea -0.75
Odd: 1.98 Pinnacle, bet365
Stake: 8/10

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Sunderland - Newcastle

Sunderland are doing pretty well this season, they’re on unreal (for me, at least) 6th place and have lost only once at Stadium of Light (weird game vs. Blackpool 0-2). At home they have conceded the least number of goals in Premier (seven) and have kept clean sheets in five of their last seven league games. Three important players should return for the game. Defender Onuoha is sure, Cattermole is key man in the middle of the park and knowing his temper I have impression he’d play with one leg. Wellbeck should also take some role in the derby. At the previous game, they were humiliated with 1-5 trashing.

The Toon are also having a good season and Pardew’s era started with expected results. Wins against Liverpool, Wigan and West Ham, defeats vs. City and Spurs. Nothing much to say about them, my impression is management’s decision to sack Hughton was too harsh. We’ll see, but personally I don’t expect more than the middle of the table from Newcastle. Big problem for today is missing of Andy Carroll - top scorer with 11 goals, but they’ll also miss his defensive role at set-pieces. Midfielder Tiote is suspended.

I fancy Sunderland here. They seem to be a stronger side, are performing very well at home and should be too much for the Toon without Carroll. However, I’m taking some cover in case of a draw.

Bet: Sunderland -0.25
Odd: 1.82 Canbet
Stake: 8/10

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Sunderland - West Ham

After a sublime performance at Stamford Bridge, Sunderland took only a point from next two games. Draw against Everton at home (2-2) and defeat at Wolves (2-3). They’ve been playing nice to watch football, still without a defeat at home (resisted against Man Utd, Man City and Arsenal) and possess serious attacking power in Bent and Gyan. I was thinking about home win, first. But, here’s the problem. Steve Bruce will be missing both of his first choice centre backs, Michael Turner and Titus Bramble. In a tight game, risk would be bigger. I expect more attacking Sunderland, today. Good thing for Bruce is, another defender John Mensah declared himself fit.

The Hammers defeated Wigan in their make or break game, but shock came after it as they demolished Man Utd in Cup game. They didn’t earn any points on that, but mood in the dressing room is completely different. No reason for a fear at Stadium of Light. They don’t have a single win on the road, but actually like to visit Sunderland’s ground. Six wins there of last eight occasions. Carlton Cole is back with two goals in Cup, with Piquionne should be a real threat to the opposite defence (defence without centre backs). The Hammers have scored in each of their last 15 league games against Sunderland.

In some other moment of the season, I guess Sunderland would be a clear favourite. But today with those injuries and confident West Ham, I think they won’t keep a clean sheet. Whatever aspect of this game I try to analyze, conclusions are the same. Goals, both to score, over.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 2.05 Pinnacle
Stake: 7/10

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