Boxing Day Betting, Bolton - Newcastle

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The Trotters have lost nine of last ten matches at home, but in previous round they got a big confidence boost by winning Blackburn away and they’ve won seven of their last eight home matches at Boxing Day. However, they cannot shut the defence and they’ve conceded at least twice in eight out of last ten games.

The Toon are winless in last six and this should be a nice chance for them to back on the track. But, they also have a leaky defence and conceded 10 goals in last four encounters. Nine of their last twelve games have produced three goals or more goals (six games with four or more).

I am taking goals.

Bet: Over 2.75
Odd: 2.11 (Canbet)
Stake: 8/10
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Premier League Betting, Norwich - Newcastle

Norwich haven’t kept a single clean sheet of 14 games, they have conceded more goals than any other team outside the bottom three and only Bolton have allowed their opponents more shots on goal. Their seven home games have produced 22 goals (average 3.14)!

The Toon are also free scoring (and free conceding) side. Seven of their last nine matches in Premier produced three or more goals and they’ve conceded seven goals in last three. For this particular game, Alan Pardew will have plenty of problems with his defence line. Steven Taylor and Mike Williamson are out and Fabricio Coloccini is a serious doubt.

While I fancy Norwich for this one, the fact is both sides have leaky defences and pretty strong attacks. Goals should be only logic conclusion.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.90 (Interwetten)
Stake: 8/10
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West Ham - Aston Villa

There are plenty of conspiracy theories why West Ham will stay in Premier. I will keep to the field and would say they will probably stay because they possess much more quality in players than their fellow strugglers. Problem is defence line, one of the worst in league. They have conceded 56 goals in 32 games, seven in last two. Skipper Scott Parker is rated in doubt and his absence would be a huge miss in the midfield. However, this is a make or break for the Hammers and we will see an ultimate effort. Kieron Dyer could be in the team after finishing his loan spell Ipswich. West Ham have lost only three of 14 matches against bottom-half sides.

Villa are also (in my honest opinion) team of unused potential. Randy Lerner’s lack of sense for sport and investment costs them a fight for Europe. Players hate Houllier (I cannot blame them) and that is probably the main reason for the underachieving. They defeated the Toon in the previous round, but still are not safe (five points above the line). Their counter-attack approach should suit more for the away games, but Villa have noticed five winless games on the road (three defeats, two draws), have conceded 12 in those and haven’t kept a clean sheet in last 17 away league matches.

West Ham are desperate for three points, but Villa are definitely able to score. Odds on goals are more than decent. Another over for me.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 2.07 188bet
Stake: 7/10
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Sunderland - Newcastle

Sunderland are doing pretty well this season, they’re on unreal (for me, at least) 6th place and have lost only once at Stadium of Light (weird game vs. Blackpool 0-2). At home they have conceded the least number of goals in Premier (seven) and have kept clean sheets in five of their last seven league games. Three important players should return for the game. Defender Onuoha is sure, Cattermole is key man in the middle of the park and knowing his temper I have impression he’d play with one leg. Wellbeck should also take some role in the derby. At the previous game, they were humiliated with 1-5 trashing.

The Toon are also having a good season and Pardew’s era started with expected results. Wins against Liverpool, Wigan and West Ham, defeats vs. City and Spurs. Nothing much to say about them, my impression is management’s decision to sack Hughton was too harsh. We’ll see, but personally I don’t expect more than the middle of the table from Newcastle. Big problem for today is missing of Andy Carroll - top scorer with 11 goals, but they’ll also miss his defensive role at set-pieces. Midfielder Tiote is suspended.

I fancy Sunderland here. They seem to be a stronger side, are performing very well at home and should be too much for the Toon without Carroll. However, I’m taking some cover in case of a draw.

Bet: Sunderland -0.25
Odd: 1.82 Canbet
Stake: 8/10

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Birmingham - Newcastle

Generous price here on a home side. Brum are one of very few sides that still play old fashioned English football with lots of running, punching and crossing from the wing. They’re physically strong and very good in the air. It’s a good thing for this game as they should be able to cope with Carroll in front the goal and with Nolan/Barton in midfield. Brum have lost just one game of their last 23 matches at St Andrew’s in Premier. No injury concerns for McLeish.

I’m not sure what the season expectations of Newcastle’s board are when they sacked Chris Hughton. Spot for European competition? Anyway, Pardew started great with a win over Liverpool in previous round. However, it should be noticed for the record they scored after every of three goal attempts. The Toon is on very good 8^th place and I don’t think they’ll climb higher than that. I expect a kind of warm-cold performances from them through the season (with more warm at home) and middle of the table at the end.

I’m giving a significant advantage to the home side, but considering Birmingham as draw specialists (9 of 17 games this season!) and the fact their last five games at St Andrew’s vs. Toon ended on the same way, I can’t exclude a possibility of another draw (how could I?). So, dnb option for me. Close game and Brum by one.

Bet: Birmingham 0.0
Odd: 1.85 188 bet
Stake: 8/10

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Newcastle – Arsenal

After the great start in Premier, the Toon started to slowing down. In the last 3 home games, they noticed just one point against the sides from the bottom side of the table (Blackpool, Stoke and Wigan) and in all of those 3 conceded twice. In the previous round, they defeated Chelsea at Stamford (reserve squad though) in the game where Chris Hughton made 10 changes in the team. Something like that, he already announced. Newcastle tonight will be mix of fringe players and youngsters. They also have a big derby clash on the corner, home against Sunderland and that’s another reason for first teamers not to be risked. The Toon have only one win against Arsenal in last 19 competitive games and haven’t won in last 7 Cup games (since 1952)!

The Gunners are travelling to the north in a great mood. They demolished City at weekend and boosted their self confidence. Also, some important players (Fabregas, Walcott,Bendtner, Denilson) have been recovered from the injuries. In the previous round in city derby, they eliminated Spurs away, in the game where Wenger rotated players (as usual), but because the number of players in rotation (and their quality) that squad is always more than respectable. Arsenal have good tradition in this competition, but probably more important reason is Wenger’s desire to win a silverware (or better to say, pressure on him to win it). And in situation where Spurs, Chelsea and Man City already finished their appearance in Cup, Arsenal are favorites to win it (beside Man Utd, of course).

This surely won’t be a walk at the St James Park for the Wenger’s kids. Newcastle beat Chelsea away with the same team that probably will be tonight. They gained a huge amount of self confidence and will put their best in this game. But, on the other side will be much more serious eleven than at Stamford. Arsenal are in big uptrend, want a trophy and this should be just one station on the road to Wembley. Beside away win, I expect some counter attack that should finish the job before the end of 90 minutes.

Bet: Arsenal -0.75
Odd: 2.13 Canbet
Stake: 8/10

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