Premier League and League One betting, 9 Apr

Newcastle - Bolton

The Toon have four league wins on a trot, thankfully to Papiss Cisse who has scored 7 (seven) goals in previous four matches! If Chelsea don’t win at Fulham tonight, Newcastle will occupy a spot for Europa League.

Bolton are feeling the fire under the feet. They were outclassed by Fulham at home, in previous away game won against hopeless Wolves, but before that they had noticed four consecutive defeats on the road. All four were with two or three goals margin and without scoring. They also have one day less from preparation.

Backing Toon here, with asian handicap.

Bet: Newcastle -1ah

Odd: 1.88 (bet365)

Stake: 9/10

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Notts County - Yeovil Town

County are two points far from play-off and have been playing pretty well at home. Beside two defeats against Sheffiled clubs, they have five wins out of last seven matches. They made a confident win at Friday against Orient away, in a game where boss Keith Curle was even resting some of his key players.

Yeovil are in the middle of the table, they’re safe from both - relegation and play-off. They played (and won) against Rochdale at Saturday. They could be a tough nut to crack on the road, but against top sides only positive result came against MK Dons.

Beside quality, I expect motivation and fresher legs to decide a winner.

Bet: Notts County -0.75

Odd: 2.04 (Pinnacle)

Stake: 8/10

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Boxing Day Betting, Bolton - Newcastle

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The Trotters have lost nine of last ten matches at home, but in previous round they got a big confidence boost by winning Blackburn away and they’ve won seven of their last eight home matches at Boxing Day. However, they cannot shut the defence and they’ve conceded at least twice in eight out of last ten games.

The Toon are winless in last six and this should be a nice chance for them to back on the track. But, they also have a leaky defence and conceded 10 goals in last four encounters. Nine of their last twelve games have produced three goals or more goals (six games with four or more).

I am taking goals.

Bet: Over 2.75
Odd: 2.11 (Canbet)
Stake: 8/10
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Premier League Betting, Norwich - Newcastle

Norwich haven’t kept a single clean sheet of 14 games, they have conceded more goals than any other team outside the bottom three and only Bolton have allowed their opponents more shots on goal. Their seven home games have produced 22 goals (average 3.14)!

The Toon are also free scoring (and free conceding) side. Seven of their last nine matches in Premier produced three or more goals and they’ve conceded seven goals in last three. For this particular game, Alan Pardew will have plenty of problems with his defence line. Steven Taylor and Mike Williamson are out and Fabricio Coloccini is a serious doubt.

While I fancy Norwich for this one, the fact is both sides have leaky defences and pretty strong attacks. Goals should be only logic conclusion.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.90 (Interwetten)
Stake: 8/10
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Premier League Betting, Man Utd - Newcastle

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No need to talk too much about Man Utd’s home record. This season they have five wins out of six, in previous one 18 wins and only one draw. For the notice is fact the most of their home wins came after the lead at the ht (lost the exact number, but let’s say 70%). After conceding six in city derby, in next five matches they didn’t concede a single goal. Till Benfica, but with mixed defence. Only Anderson is out (till February). United haven’t lost against the Toon in last 18 matches (both home and away), winning 14 of them!

Newcastle are noticing a surprising (shocking if you like) start of the campaign. Their first defeat came in last round against Man City (where they maybe deserved more than 1-3 defeat) and currently occupy CL spot! However, all their rivals on the road were bottom-half sides.

I don’t really expect Newcastle will stay at the top too long and fancy United to win this one with the lead at the half time. Odds are decent.

Bet: Man Utd/Man Utd (ht/ft)
Odd: 2.00 (PaddyPower, Bwin)
Stake: 8/10
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Sunderland - Newcastle

Sunderland are doing pretty well this season, they’re on unreal (for me, at least) 6th place and have lost only once at Stadium of Light (weird game vs. Blackpool 0-2). At home they have conceded the least number of goals in Premier (seven) and have kept clean sheets in five of their last seven league games. Three important players should return for the game. Defender Onuoha is sure, Cattermole is key man in the middle of the park and knowing his temper I have impression he’d play with one leg. Wellbeck should also take some role in the derby. At the previous game, they were humiliated with 1-5 trashing.

The Toon are also having a good season and Pardew’s era started with expected results. Wins against Liverpool, Wigan and West Ham, defeats vs. City and Spurs. Nothing much to say about them, my impression is management’s decision to sack Hughton was too harsh. We’ll see, but personally I don’t expect more than the middle of the table from Newcastle. Big problem for today is missing of Andy Carroll - top scorer with 11 goals, but they’ll also miss his defensive role at set-pieces. Midfielder Tiote is suspended.

I fancy Sunderland here. They seem to be a stronger side, are performing very well at home and should be too much for the Toon without Carroll. However, I’m taking some cover in case of a draw.

Bet: Sunderland -0.25
Odd: 1.82 Canbet
Stake: 8/10

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Sunday's results and statistic update

There was one tradition that did last 79 years. Then I decided to bet on it...
Profit, however.

Barnsley - Burnley 1-2 LOST
Blackburn - Stoke 0-2 WON
Newcastle - Man City 1-3 WON

Updated statistic and list of bets.

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Newcastle - Man City

No preview, just pick. Sixth time on City...

Bet: Man City -0.25
Odd: 2.04 188bet
Stake: 8/10

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Latest results and statistic update

Manchester United - Arsenal 1-0 WON
Birmingham - Newcastle PP
Leeds - QPR 2-0 LOST
Ipswich - Leicester 3-0 LOST 

Updated statistic and list of bets.

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Birmingham - Newcastle

Generous price here on a home side. Brum are one of very few sides that still play old fashioned English football with lots of running, punching and crossing from the wing. They’re physically strong and very good in the air. It’s a good thing for this game as they should be able to cope with Carroll in front the goal and with Nolan/Barton in midfield. Brum have lost just one game of their last 23 matches at St Andrew’s in Premier. No injury concerns for McLeish.

I’m not sure what the season expectations of Newcastle’s board are when they sacked Chris Hughton. Spot for European competition? Anyway, Pardew started great with a win over Liverpool in previous round. However, it should be noticed for the record they scored after every of three goal attempts. The Toon is on very good 8^th place and I don’t think they’ll climb higher than that. I expect a kind of warm-cold performances from them through the season (with more warm at home) and middle of the table at the end.

I’m giving a significant advantage to the home side, but considering Birmingham as draw specialists (9 of 17 games this season!) and the fact their last five games at St Andrew’s vs. Toon ended on the same way, I can’t exclude a possibility of another draw (how could I?). So, dnb option for me. Close game and Brum by one.

Bet: Birmingham 0.0
Odd: 1.85 188 bet
Stake: 8/10

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Weekend's results

My betting weekend in one sentence. Barnsley and Chelsea were extremely unlucky to not book the three points, Berbatov went insane, Norwich were great, Everton disgusting.

Barnsley - Watford 0-0  1/2 LOST
Man Utd - Blackburn 7-1 WON
Everton - WBA 1-4 LOST
Norwich - Ipswich 4-1 WON
.....................................................Newcastle - Chelsea 1-1 LOST

Updated statistic and list of bets.
Still deep in red.

Maybe one bet, little later.

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Bets for Sunday

No time for writing analyzes, just picks.

Premier League, Newcastle - Chelsea
Bet: Chelsea -0.75
Odd: 2.02 Canbet
Stake: 7/10

Championship, Norwich - Ipswich 
Bet: Norwich -0.25
Odd: 1.88 Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10

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Wednesday's result and statistic update

Hope this is the start of new good run...

Newcastle - Arsenal 0-4 WON 

Statistic:

October
Profit: -25.04 units Yield: -22.36%

Season
Profit: -4.86 units Yield: -1.41%

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Newcastle – Arsenal

After the great start in Premier, the Toon started to slowing down. In the last 3 home games, they noticed just one point against the sides from the bottom side of the table (Blackpool, Stoke and Wigan) and in all of those 3 conceded twice. In the previous round, they defeated Chelsea at Stamford (reserve squad though) in the game where Chris Hughton made 10 changes in the team. Something like that, he already announced. Newcastle tonight will be mix of fringe players and youngsters. They also have a big derby clash on the corner, home against Sunderland and that’s another reason for first teamers not to be risked. The Toon have only one win against Arsenal in last 19 competitive games and haven’t won in last 7 Cup games (since 1952)!

The Gunners are travelling to the north in a great mood. They demolished City at weekend and boosted their self confidence. Also, some important players (Fabregas, Walcott,Bendtner, Denilson) have been recovered from the injuries. In the previous round in city derby, they eliminated Spurs away, in the game where Wenger rotated players (as usual), but because the number of players in rotation (and their quality) that squad is always more than respectable. Arsenal have good tradition in this competition, but probably more important reason is Wenger’s desire to win a silverware (or better to say, pressure on him to win it). And in situation where Spurs, Chelsea and Man City already finished their appearance in Cup, Arsenal are favorites to win it (beside Man Utd, of course).

This surely won’t be a walk at the St James Park for the Wenger’s kids. Newcastle beat Chelsea away with the same team that probably will be tonight. They gained a huge amount of self confidence and will put their best in this game. But, on the other side will be much more serious eleven than at Stamford. Arsenal are in big uptrend, want a trophy and this should be just one station on the road to Wembley. Beside away win, I expect some counter attack that should finish the job before the end of 90 minutes.

Bet: Arsenal -0.75
Odd: 2.13 Canbet
Stake: 8/10

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Man Utd - Newcastle

Personally, I can’t see any value in the offered odds. It’s the opening game and I wouldn’t take Community shield (or friendlies) result too serious. And to be honest, I have no idea what to expect from Newcastle this season. They should avoid relegation, but their capabilities are unknown for me. United are slow starters, same manager through the years and same pattern. They won just one of previous 3 opening games (Birmingham last year, 1-0 at home), other 2 finished with a draws (2008.- Newcastle 1-1 and 2007.- Reading 0-0). So, three unders. Taking some high handicap (-1.75 valued 1.91, or over 2.5 at 1.60) would be like a coin flip. Doesn’t worth for me. NO BET.

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Saturday's failure and Sunday's double

Newcastle U. 2 - 2 Ipswich T.  LOSE

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Norwich C. 2 - 0 Gillingham  WIN

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Peterborough U. 0 - 1 Blackpool  DRAW

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Arsenal 0 - 0 Manchester C.  LOSE

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Bad day. Today I have a hangover and terrible headache. So, will keep it easy. Everton and Roma, double.

Thank you to all for visiting.

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Newcastle 2-0 Nottm Forest

Championship leaders Newcastle United could be promoted to the Premier League as early as the weekend after a hard-fought win over Nottingham Forest.
Should United beat Peterborough and Forest lose to Bristol City, the Magpies will bounce back into the top flight after one season away. 
They secured a 2-0 win over promotion rivals Forest after substitute Shola Ameobi scored in the 71st minute. 
Jose Enrique blasted the ball past Lee Camp for Newcastle's second late on.
Despite a goalless opening 70 minutes, this top-of-the-table clash proved a gripping encounter from start to finish, with Forest playing their part as they looked to bring their run of six away defeats to an end.

Newcastle boss Chris Hughton:
"It's that close. We are where we are and we thoroughly deserve to be where we are and if [winning promotion] happens on Saturday, then no one will be more delighted than me.
"But the most important thing is we have to win first. 
"The nature of our business is you have to enjoy the wins and it will be a nice day tomorrow at the training ground. 
"I'm quite sure everybody will have a spring in their step. But we very quickly have to bring them back down to earth. 
"If we are able to take a spare chunk of what we had tonight into [Saturday's game at Peterborough] then we have got a good chance of coming away with a victory." 
Nottingham Forest boss Billy Davies:
"I'm not admitting defeat, I am saying I think Newcastle United, in my opinion, will finish the job.
"We've got a challenge for second place that is very much still on the go."

www.bbc.co.uk

Newcastle United - Nottingham Forest

Nothing much to say about Newcastle. They’re far best team in Championship and will reach direct promotion. However, thankfully to away displays and numberless draws, their points’ advantage has been melted and they have just a single point more than WBA (have two games in hand though). They’re in the run of 9 games without a defeat, six consecutive wins at home, one was with 2 goals margin other with 3 or more. In total at home they have 15 wins and 4 draws and scary goal difference with 46 goals scored and just 9 conceded! Lovenkrands and Smith are returning, defenders Williamson and Hall as well. Newcastle have won three of their last four matches against Forest, scoring nine goals in the process and conceding only two.

 

Forest are third, they’re 9 points far from WBA and direct promotion and also have a game less. So, theoretically it could be 6 points. But while they’re shinning at home, they’re shape on the road is disgusting and should be a shame for one promotion chaser. Six defeats in a row, against the clubs from the bottom and middle of the table (Derby, Coventry, Doncaster, Leicester, Preston and Barnsley) and just 3 (three) goals scored in those 6! They’ll give their maximum against top side and maybe will try to get closer to 2^nd place but the sad true is they look clueless on the road and if start the game with more attacking attitude it would just make the job easier for the Toon. Defenders Perch and Lynch are in doubt and will face a late fitness test. Forest's win at home in October was their first league victory against Newcastle for 21 years.

 

Newcastle will reach the promotion, it’s out of question. But, they’ll surely try to secure first place for their pride and also haven’t forgotten a defeat on the road vs. Forest  (0-1). On the other hand, visitors should be satisfied with a play-off spot. More courage tonight would only mean more balls in the net. My bet is -0.75 ah at 1.95. 

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Great day

Newcastle 3 - 0 Preston

Newcastle moved five points clear at the top of the Championship as they kept up their unbeaten home record.
The Magpies took only three minutes to score, Peter Lovenkrands' attempted cross clearing Preston keeper Andy Lonergan and dropping inside the post. 
Top scorer Kevin Nolan doubled the lead after half-time when he burst into the penalty area and slotted in his 12th goal of the season. 
Substitute Ryan Taylor fired in the third in injury time. 
West Brom could narrow Newcastle's lead when they face Bristol City on Sunday. 
But the Magpies' promotion chase shows no sign of letting up after a comfortable win over Preston, who had their chances but lost to a far more clinical side.
Newcastle boss Chris Hughton:
"I think it is the most important thing. 
"We know West Brom and Nottingham Forest are one or two wins away from being a lot closer to us or being above us so we can't afford to lose focus. 
"Our preparation has to be the same and our mental attitude going into every game has to be the same." 
Preston boss Darren Ferguson:
"It was never a 3-0 game, that flatters Newcastle massively. 
"They'll have a good chance of winning promotion if they get referees like today. You have to have strong referees, especially against Newcastle, and he wasn't strong enough. 
"Overall I was pleased with the performance, if we play like that we'll be OK."

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West Ham 3 - 0 Hull City

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West Ham turned on the style to make it two wins in a row for the first time this season as fellow relegation strugglers Hull were reduced to 10 men.
Valon Behrami capped a surging run with a third-minute opener after exchanging passes with Guillermo Franco. 
And Hull's problems increased shortly after the break when Craig Fagan was sent off for a second bookable offence. 
Julien Faubert fed Carlton Cole for a slotted second before completing the win with a thumping late effort. 
It was West Ham's fourth consecutive clean sheet at home, and the emphatic scoreline - not to mention the buoyant nature of the display against a relegation rival - will surely please manager Gianfranco Zola.
The Hammers came out of the blocks at lightning speed and although they did not build on their overall superiority until after Fagan's dismissal, their performance was brimming with a brio and belief that have too often been missing this season. 
They were aided and abetted by a Hull side who, rarely in it apart from a brief spell of pressure before the break, were left with a mountain to climb after Fagan's departure. 
The result leaves Phil Brown's side just a point above the drop zone.
Hull manager Phil Brown:
"It was self-inflicted, we had a game plan but it was unhinged by poor decision-making. 
"The sending-off was also self-inflicted, it was a poor decision by Craig Fagan to make the tug because he was already in the book. 
"The first diagnosis of Anthony Gardner's injury isn't good, he has a problem with both his tibia and fibula. 
"It was a bad day at the office to say the least." 
West Ham manager Gianfranco Zola:
"It was a good performance; we can do better, but the difference was the way we started. 
"We were solid throughout the game and the second goal was important for us. 
"Robert Green's save was worth a goal to us, because it allowed us to reorganise at half-time. 
"The whole team is getting better; the more confidence you get, the more the players can give."
www.bbc.co.uk

Newcastle United - Preston North End

Toons are on the top, but big margin between them and second placed WBA has been melted, thankfully to problematic results on the road. On the other hand, Newcastle are best home side in Championship with 12 wins and just four draws (34 goals scored and just 8 conceded – 0.5 per a match). They also hold the best defensive record in the division. Club faced a crisis of performance in two games vs. WBA, but after that three home wins in a row and all with margin higher than two goals. Boss Chris Hughton can not count on striker Shola Ameobi and midfielders Steven Taylor and Joey Barton. Midfielder Nicky Butt and midfielder Jose Enrique will face a late fitness test. Newcastle have won the last four matches between these clubs.

Preston are struggling under Ferguson junior, as they have only one win in last five games (Sheff.Utd. at home, 2-1). Good thing is they’re (still) far from relegation zone. Bad thing is they’re poor travelers, they’ve noticed seven defeats in last nine games on the road (one draw and one win) and next one will be at the toughest place in the second tier. Situation looks even worse after Tuesday’s defeat vs. Derby and conceded five(!) goals. The biggest problem is defense line that conceded 11 goals at last four games on the road (total of 30 goals and the worst record alongside Scunthorpe). That defense will miss the skipper Callum Davidson, while midfielders Richard Chaplow and Paul Parry are also out. Preston have played three of the current top five teams away from home, and lost all three games.

There’s no doubt Newcastle are far better squad in Championship. Their current performances and just three points more than WBA will guarantee their serious approach in this game. Preston just look like a victim of bad circumstances. Home win, -1.5 handicap as a gamble.

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Initial thoughts for Saturday

At the first glance,two games in England shouldn’t be overlooked.
Can’t see how Newcastle can lose at Walkers.Haven’t checked team news,but even 20 injuries wouldn’t change my opinion.Odds look generous.Will decide between dnb and away win.

Everton on the road against Wigan.Good thing about Toffees is their results follow the trend.When they have injuries and start sinking,run away from them.When start improving then should be backed.They have very good dressing room atmosphere that wasn’t shook with Cup exit.Although Sunderland’s performance is really awful in these days,I think Everton definitely have enough strength to defeat Wigan.The fact first goalie for Latics will be again Stojkovic suggests a big possibility of goals.Away win and over in this one.

Again it’s my initial thoughts,take it with caution.But it worth a small bets for me. 

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