Finland betting, MPS Helsinki - Kapylan Pallo

Can’t believe what I see here. Home side is as short as 1.50. Made some calculations and got huge price on away win. Since I can’t get any team news, I put in my formula a strong advantage for home side, but not even close to the books. For me, it definitely worth of a small wager.

Bet: K.Pallo 0.0
Odd: 3.75 (Bet365)
Stake: 2/10 
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Championship betting, Middlesbrough – Coventry

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After a draw against Pompey at the opening day, ‘Boro have noticed five wins in a row (three in league, two in Cup). Tony Mowbray’s men have been playing really well and they could be serious contenders for promotion. However, their both home games produced four goals (conceded three).

Coventry are the opposite, their start brought them only a point (last round, Watford at home 0-0). However, their key man, striker Freddy Eastwood is fit after playing half an hour against Watford. ‘Boro remain as favorites, but I expect a goal from visitors and take goals instead.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.93 Pinnacle
Stake: 7/10 
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League One betting, Yeovil - Sheff Utd

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The Blades are having a very good start, since they’ve noticed three wins and a draw (in previous round where conceded a late equalizer vs. Tranmere). There’s no big philosophy, difference in quality is big and both sides will finished at the opposite sides of the table. Utd’s manager, Danny Wilson, did some rotation against Everton in midweek, but this is actually their seventh game for 20 days! So, I am taking some cover in case of a draw.

Bet: Sheff Utd -0.25
Odd: 1.86 Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10
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Carling Cup betting, West Ham - Aldershot

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West Ham are still (my, at least) top favorites for direct promotion, they simply have an unreal players for the second tier. They won both away games, but at Upton Park noticed just a point from two games. Both times they conceded in the last minutes (Cardiff 0-1, Leeds 2-2). I think they will try to finally put some good display at home and notice a convincing victory. Big Sam will certainly rotate, but he has very good fringe players anyway. West Ham also have a good League Cup history results.

Aldershot started the season in League Two with a win on opening day and three defeats in a row (without scoring). This is very big game for the Shots, but I think all will depend on West Ham and their approach to the game. Visitors will try to keep the pace as long as they can, but difference in the quality is simply huge.

It’s a good chance for the Hammers to demonstrate the power. They have a squad to successfully play in all competitions and simply they owe it to the fans.

Bet: West Ham -1.25
Odd: 1.81 Pinnacle
Stake: 7/10 
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Carling Cup betting, Peterborough - Middlesbrough

                          

The Posh started this campaign in a very good manner with two wins, draw and a defeat. These are results: C.Palace (H) 2-1, Stevenage - previous Cup round (A) 2-2, Blackpool (A) 1-2, Millwall (A) 2-2, Ipswich (H) 7-1! They’re without Gabriel Zakuani, Nicky Ajose, Dave Hibbert and goalkeeper Joe Lewis, but it’s not about who will play. The Posh have a system that always brings goals, for and against. Additionally, their last 13 of 15 League Cup games ended with three or more goals.

‘Boro started to justify the role of favorites from previous season. Change of managers, looking for suitable style of play, questionable players’ selection were the problems, but now they finally started to look like serious promotion contenders. Three wins and a draw in league and win over Walsall away in the Cup. Four of these five produced three or more goals. Also, last six Carling Cup games ended with three or more goals.

I think Tony Mowbray’s side is a slight favourite here, they’re in very good shape and will certainly try to keep the momentum with another win. On the other, hand... It’s Posh. Goals for me.

Bet: Over 3ah
Odd: 1.85 Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10
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Carling Cup betting, Aston Villa - Hereford

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Villa and McLeish made a very good start in Premier and I doubt he’ll risk spoiling that momentum. We’ll see some fringe players tonight, but the fact is reserve team played a game last night (away to Blackburn) and he won’t be able to rotate too much.

Hereford are probably one of the worst sides in League Two. One draw and three defeats in previous four rounds (goal diff. 1-9). All games were against sides that will be fighting to avoid relegation. Premier League scalp would be a huge boost (they’ve never beaten a top-flight club in this competition), but quite frankly can’t see how it is possible. Trying to stay in the league should be their top priority. Additionally, Hereford have a long injury list. Captain defender Stam, goalie Barlett, defender Dalibard are all out, midfielder Clist is cup-tied, while  left-back Joe Heath and midfielder Rob Purdie are in doubt.

I expect an entertaining game and sort off easier training session for Villa. It’s huge difference even between Villa’s reserves and Hereford’s first squad.  4-0, 5-0 correct score.

Bet: Aston Villa -2ah
Odd: 1.88 Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10 
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Premier League betting, Man Utd - Tottenham

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In previous season, United had terrific record of 18 wins and one draw of 19 home games. There’s also a really weird tradition that says United haven’t lost against Spurs in last 24 competitive games (both home and away) and haven’t lost at home for 22 years (December 1989)! Bad sides. De Gea’s start in clubs doesn’t seem promising at all. In both games (Man City and WBA) he made mistakes, punished with goals. Defenders Rio, Vidic and Rafael are out for several weeks (months?). Central duo will be Evans - Jones (Smalling). It’s still Man Utd, but defence doesn’t look rock solid. Javier Hernandez is also out.

Spurs didn’t play first game (London riots), but showed some potential trashing Hearts away 5-0. It’s hard to be confident with such a dreadful record at Old Trafford, but I think they’re not without chances. Bale and Lennon could cause plenty of problems on the flanks and more important for my bet, I think if Arry settle for a draw he’ll very likely lose by one. Spurs will need a goal or two for positive result. I hope he knows it. : ) Additionally, I think they won’t hesitate to test De Gea from the distance. Sounds interesting the fact they scored 15 goals from outside the penalty area last season (more than any other side). Modric didn’t travel to Manchester since his saga doesn’t seem to be finished, despite Chelsea are about to sign Mata. Peter Crouch is in doubt, defenders Ledley King, Gallas and Hutton are out.

When United have defensive problems they usually play more attacking, to decrease pressure on the back four. Man Utd are favorites in my opinion, they get used to rotation but De Gea's for is something that doesn't give me enough confidence for that bet. Think Spurs can be very competitive and score at least once. I am taking goals. Gambles to think about, Van der Vaart anytime at 4.60 (Unibet) and Man Utd to win from behind at 9.50 (Betfair). 

Bet: Over 2.75
Odd: 2.02 Pinnacle
Stake: 7/10
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Championship betting, Southampton - Millwall

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The Saints have made a perfect start with all three wins and I am about to think they really have a quality to fight for play-off at least. Including previous season, they have nine competitive wins in a row and eleven straight at home. They’re scoring for fun lately (13 goals in four games this season) and five of their last six encounters ended with four or more goals. They will be missing Richard Chaplow, Radhi Jaidi and Lee Barnard.

Millwall are also undefeated in the opening three rounds. They have a decent fire power with Liam Trotter and especially with Darius Henderson (if he manage to stay fit through the season). They scored twice in every of those three games, but interesting two times lost the advantage (conceded both times two goals in the space of 5 min). Dany N'Guessan has joined Therry Racon and Shaun Batt on Millwall’s injury list.

Lads from the Den won’t have too much respect on St Mary's and I am pretty sure they can score at least once (Henderson). The Saints won’t mind as long as they have one goal more on the balance. My sixth sense says draw or away win, but wouldn’t dare to oppose the leading side and their perfect run. Both teams are able to score a lot (and to concede), so my bet is over 2.5.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.98 188 bet
Stake: 7/10 
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