Two value bets.
England League Two, Southend - Shrewsbury
The hosts have noticed three wins in a row (all three without conceding), in the last round trashed Rotherham away. Two important players are back. Shrewsbury defeated Torquay last weekend, but have some injuries in the defence line for this match.
It is third against second, but I think Southend is overpriced.
Ireland 1, Bohemians - St. Patrick`s Athletic
Both sides are fighting for a spot for Europe, precisely Bohs must win to stay in contention. They lost on the road against relegation contender UCD, in the midweek game and have few days less for a rest. Bohemians have same number of wins and defeats at home and against Pats play traditionally tight games. Visitors have five points more than the hosts and four straight wins on the road (two of these in Cup against second league sides) and all without conceding. I expect another tight game, but like the odds for Pats. Same handicap and small stake again.
Odd: 2.02 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 2/10
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Derry City lie on the fourth place on the table, five points less than third Cork City and European qualifications. It seems the players are loosing the breath lately, as they recorded three 0-1 defeats (Dundalk, Drogheda United, Bohemians) and 1-1 home draw against Cork City, from last four games. Another defeat would be a big strike to their European ambitions. Team played hard game in Bulgaria against CSKA Sofia (lost 0-1, again) at thursday night and the big question is how much players will physically recover, especially older players like Peter Hutton who is 36. Also, boss Stephen Kenny will have a difficult task to motivate players for tonight’s very important clash in Dublin. Derry have a lots of problems with scoring, they noticed only 3 goals on last 7 competitive games. Hutton has no other choice, than to set up defensive formation again, hoping one counter attack can bring three points. It will be harder as defenders Peter Hutton and Eddie McCallion are serving one match suspensions.
Bohemians play in excellent shape, have eight competitive wins from last nine games, have five points more than the chasers and march with the huge steps to another champions title. But, black clouds appeared over the club. Irish press published the story about club’s disaster financial situation. Club is spending about 1.6 million pounds on players’ wages which is over the limit. So, the finance director Chris Brien informed the club’s members they need urgent cash injection, otherwise hard sanctions and move to First Division are already seen. However, the calculation is defending the title in domain competition and progress in Champions League over Salzburg would be enough to cover the debt. Therefore, this game for Irish side means do or die happening. The Gypsies will miss skipper Owen Heary who is suspended and Graham Carey which loan deal couldn’t be extended because the mentioned club’s finance. Lack of quality, visitors will try to compensate with fighting attitude and save the club from bankrupt.
Lars Lagerback’s lads started this qualification campaign with a clear intention to improve the impression from Euro 2008. But just a single win and three draws (all 0-0) are enough recently just for fifth place with big seven points less (and a game less) than a leader, today’s opponent, Denmark. Sweden has to start collecting the points to involve in the fight for first two places. Squad scored just two times in four games (both times against Hungary, 2-1) and good news for Lagerback is he’ll have best team available, including Ibrahimovic and Larsson. Biggest problem for them is lack of midfield, strikers are usually cut from the play and hardly make the goal opportunities. Players use every opportunity to underline excellent dressing room atmosphere and their determination to qualify for South Africa. Anders Svensson has some slight injury problems, but he’s expected to play. No other worries for Lagerback.
In the last two seasons. St. Patrick finished as a runner-up. Club had one of the largest budgets, but failure to win the league and big financial losses in the previous year, were the reasons for the club’s decision to revert to part-time football for the 2009 season. They lost some very good players and manager Jeff Kenna has an impossible task to reach top three and European qualifications. After 15 rounds the Saints keep 7th place with big 15 points less than today’s opponent, leaders Bohemians. They have just a single win from last eight competitive games (Dundalk away, 1-0), two draws and five defeats. Don’t know for a win at home in last four games. With the injury list, the things become worse. Darragh Ryan (defender) and Gareth O’Connor (midfielder) both picked up injuries against Derry and are expected to join Alan Cawley (mid), Gints Freimans (striker), Gary Dempsey (mid), Mark Leech (str) on the sidelines. Stuart Byrne (mid) is suspended, while John Lester (mid) returns having served his one match suspension. Bobby Ryan (mid) is expected to make his return and to play a part in the match.
