League One betting, Bury - Brentford

Fancy the price for away side, since I’d expected something a bit closer to evens for their win. Both sides are in the decent shapes. Bury have three wins out of last four in league (bottom-half clubs and Preston, but in last round they suffered a heavy defeat at Colchester.

Brentford have won last two matches and their only defeat of last five in league came from the hands of Charlton. The Bees continue to play without skipper, midfielder Kevin O'Connor and it’s their only absentee. They have only one away defeat out of nine played games (Sheff Utd, back in August).

Expect Brentford to this one, but covering a draw should be reasonable.

Bet: Brentford 0.0
Odd: 2.03 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 7/10
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League One Betting, Rochdale - Brentford

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Rochdale defeated Preston in previous round which however was their first win after six in league and two in Cup. At home they’ve won only two games out of nine, against bottom-half sides Wycombe and Scunny.

Brentford oppositely lost in previous round, against side from the top - Charlton at home. But, they seem to enjoy their travelling as they haven’t lost in ten on the road (eight in league and two in Cup). In last two trips, stayed undefeated against promotion contenders Sheff Wed and Notts County, while also defeated Charlton in Cup 3-0.

Brentford definitely shouldn’t be as high as 2.69, but considering decent amount of draws on both sides 0.0 handicap should be a reasonable limitation.

Bet: Brentford
Odd: 1.93 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 7/10
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League One betting, Brentford - Charlton

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Brentford thrashed Bournemouth in Cup (defeated Basingstoke Town after that too), but in league have only one win of last seven at home. They have won more points playing on the road. Today, they’ll be without captain Kevin O'Connor.

Charlton are topping the table and have been scoring for fun. They’re in the run of four straight wins and have scored 20 goals in those! Seven away wins out of nine games make them obvious favorites here.

Think it won’t be easy as numbers suggest (my numbers as well). I can see a low scoring affair (with 0-0 ht) with Charlton to nick it in 2nd half. I am taking handicap and some draw covering.

Bet: Charlton -0.25
Odd: 1.94 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 8/10
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Swindon - MK Dons

That’s what you get when you sell the best players. Instead a play-off spot, a ticket for the lower division. The Robins scored a late winner and won at Brentford which was first Paul Hart’s win since he took the charge (eight games) and first club’s win after 18 matches! That’s some boost, but they still lack in quality and remain as serious candidates for moving down. Goalie Lucas, striker Andrew and defender Frampton could all return after injuries.

The Dons are doing well in the third tier, they look safe for play-off, have a decent quality and play nice passing game. Defeat at the last trip vs. S’ton was the first failure after eight games (six of them were wins), but they bounced back in the previous round against Carlisle (coming from behind). Not so good record on the road, only seven wins of 20 games but five of those came in last 8 games. Defender Woodards is out, striker Balanta could start after he scored in previous round coming from the bench.

Bookies give the advantage to the home side and cannot say I’m not well surprised with the odds. The fact Swindon are desperate for a win doesn’t mean they will defeat one of the best squad in the league. Maybe I can see them snatching a draw, but win... No, I don’t think so. Going on the Dons with securing the draw.

Bet: MK Dons
Odd: 2.08 188bet
Stake: 8/10
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Saturday's results and statistic update

The Robins scored two sensational goals (considering BBC), Robert Green was a man of the match at Emirates and Exeter suffered a first home defeat conceding four! I checked my archive, I wasn't worse ever and this is officially the worst month in my betting career! Worse even than December 2009.! Sorry to all.

New pick tomorrow.



Exeter - Brentford 2-4 LOSS
Arsenal - West Ham 1-0 LOSS
Middlesbrough - Bristol City 1-2 LOSS


Statistic:

October
Profit: -48.04 units Yield: -35.59%

Season
Profit: -27.86 units Yield: -7.60%

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Exeter – Brentford

The Grecians are 10th in League One, but just one point far from play-off zone and if they manage to follow their home results on away games, they will be serious promotion contenders. At their St. James Park they noticed last defeat at February and this season Exeter have 3 wins and 3 draws. All wins came against the teams from the top side of the table: Charlton, Rochdale and Carlisle with Cup progress over the second tier outfit Ipswich.  They come into this game stronger for striker Jamie Cureton who has recovered from an injury. His fellow striker Nardiello however, stays sidelined.

Brentford are, actually, in a very good run of results. Just one defeat in last six competitive games, including home wins against top sides Charlton and Peterborough and away win at Tranmere. But league games are currently in the shadow of Cup competition where the Bees had their minutes of glory. They passed four rounds (ended in fifth at Birmingham), eliminating clubs from leagues above like Hull and Premier side Everton. And Cup hangover syndrome will be their biggest obstacle at Exeter. Their show and 120 minutes at Brum during the midweek (and lost on penalties) will certainly affect their game. Last time, after Everton, they’ve noticed two defeats in the next two games. Also their away record doesn’t look impressive at all, as they have one win of six games. No injury worries for boss Andy Scott.

Exeter are very good home side and potential play-off contender. Brentford will have some problems to recover and return into the third tier reality. Odds are based on their Cup performances. Which is good. I expect a tough game, but home win at the end. 1-0 correct score.

Bet: Exeter -0.25
Odd: 2.10 Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10

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Tuesday result and statistic update

88th minute shocker... I'm still green.

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Brentford - Hull City 2-1 LOSS

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Statistic:

Profit: +7.62

Yield: +9.13%

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Brentford – Hull City

Brentford started campaign in League One with one draw and two defeats in opening three rounds (good result vs. Swindon last weekend, 1-1 away). In the first round, they defeated League Two side, Cheltenham, 2-1 at home. The Bees don’t have so bright history in Carling Cup as they have not reached round three for 19 years. I think more important for them would be to keep the players fit than to try to boost self confidence tonight. However, striker Carl Cort and winger Sam Wood are injury doubts. Signing from Leicester, midfielder Nicky Adams, could have his debut.

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Hull relegated from Premier, but managed to keep majority of the team from previous season. However, thankfully to the decent amount of arrogance already faced a tough life in the second tier (Millwall 0-4). New signing is Slovenian international, Robert Koren, who already made his debut in last round. I expect him to play again, to get used with the new team mates. Also considering news from Hull camp, they should have a strong line-up. Striker, Craig Fagan, will have to wait for his debut as he has a groin problem. If they qualify, it will be for the 4th time in five seasons.

 

I’m well surprised with these odds on Hull. Big difference in quality should be enough for an away win.

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Bet: Hull -0.25ah

Odd: 2.04 188bet

Stake: 7/10

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Probably one more before kick-off.

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Brentford 0 - 1 Bristol City

Nicky Maynard's second-half header helped 10-man Bristol City scrape into the second round of the Carling Cup.
The Bees dominated the first half and Myles Weston and Sam Saunders tested Dean Gerken, while Steve Kabba fired over after rounding the Robins keeper. 
City had Danny Haynes sent off for two bookings but, minutes later, Maynard nodded in Liam Fontaine's cross. 
Brentford went close when Saunders' header hit the bar and looped back down on to the woodwork, but City survived.
www.bbc.co.uk

Brentford - Bristol City

Impossible how Ipswich managed to loose. No time for tears however, Carling Cup tonight. I am not looking for bouncing back from Ipswich, Keano stated some youngsters will get their chance for a debut. I found something else...

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After superior season in League Two, home side is having a debut in higher level. The club’s management don’t plan to stay at League One too long, as they signed 11 new players! Most of them are experienced lower division players, but some of the are well known for English football audience, like ex Newcastle striker Carl Cort, or another striker Steve Kabba. At the first round, Brentford made an excellent performance, winning on the road, against Carlisle 3-1. One of the new signings, midfielder Myles Weston (came from Notts County) scored twice for an easy victory and announced the highest ambition for forthcoming season. For this encounter, only missing for boss Andy Scott will be first goalkeeper, Lewis Price who is away on international duty with Wales in Montenegro and Nikki Bull will take his place in goal. Mentioned Steve Kabba will have his debut in attack. Bees won’t lack in motivation. Players are full of enthusiasm that playing in higher league provokes, weekend win additionally raised their confidence and opponent from Championship is a nice opportunity for proving themselves. And, possible money reward for the next round shouldn’t be forgotten.

After twenty years spent in moving between English leagues, that brought them a nickname “yo-yo club”, in 2007. City got back to the second tier. The most of the previous season was much over the expectations, but thankfully to just a single win in last twelve games, club finished 10th and lost a play-off spot. City had to face with the budget cuts and some important players, like striker Dele Adebola left the club. It seems boss Gary Johnson will have a difficult task to repeat the results from the previous season. However the Robins started with unlucky draw (2-2), against Preston away. Two goals lead wasn’t enough, as Callum Davidson equalized from the penalty kick at 96th minute! For tonight’s encounter, Johnson can not count on six regular players. Jamie McAllister (def), Paul Hartley(mid), David Clarkson (str), Lewin Nyatanga (def), Christian Ribeiro (def) and James Wilson (def) are all away on international duty. It means four defenders. Some youngsters will get their chance, including manager’s son Lee. 500 fans will travel to Brentford to help the team to repeat a result from two season ago when they won 3-0 at the same place.

Bookies gave a slight advantage to City, but odds on visitors raising as the team news coming. The facts City have scored in every League Cup match they have played since 2003 and hosts will be without regular goalie, suggest a big possibility of goals. Also I fancy home side’s chances and think they surely won’t loose. So, 1 with asian handicap 0, 2.05 at Pinnacle and over, 2.04 again at Pinnacle.

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