League One betting 18 Aug, Hartlepool - Swindon

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Hartlepool haven’t made any significant signing so far, they finished previous season in not so good manner (two wins out of 13 matches), have been destroyed in the midweek Cup visit to Crew and future doesn’t seem so bright.

On the other hand, Di Canio has been very active in the transfer market and Swindon are third favourite to win the league. Gary Roberts, Jay McEveley and Alan Navarro are some of new faces. They had some good friendlies and seem to enter the season in a very good mood.

First round is obviously step in the dark, but I think we won’t find such price on Swindon through the season.

Bet: Swindon -0.25

Odd: 1.98 (BetVictor)

Stake: 7/10

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Championship and League Two betting, 31 Jan

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Ipswich - West Ham
Bet: West Ham
Odd: 2.00 (William Hill)
Stake: 7/10

Southend - Swindon
Bet: Southend -0.25
Odd: 2.09 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 6/10
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Swindon - MK Dons

That’s what you get when you sell the best players. Instead a play-off spot, a ticket for the lower division. The Robins scored a late winner and won at Brentford which was first Paul Hart’s win since he took the charge (eight games) and first club’s win after 18 matches! That’s some boost, but they still lack in quality and remain as serious candidates for moving down. Goalie Lucas, striker Andrew and defender Frampton could all return after injuries.

The Dons are doing well in the third tier, they look safe for play-off, have a decent quality and play nice passing game. Defeat at the last trip vs. S’ton was the first failure after eight games (six of them were wins), but they bounced back in the previous round against Carlisle (coming from behind). Not so good record on the road, only seven wins of 20 games but five of those came in last 8 games. Defender Woodards is out, striker Balanta could start after he scored in previous round coming from the bench.

Bookies give the advantage to the home side and cannot say I’m not well surprised with the odds. The fact Swindon are desperate for a win doesn’t mean they will defeat one of the best squad in the league. Maybe I can see them snatching a draw, but win... No, I don’t think so. Going on the Dons with securing the draw.

Bet: MK Dons
Odd: 2.08 188bet
Stake: 8/10
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Weekend and statistic update

Fourth time I wished to bet on City's game this season and noticed fourth loss! Really great...

Bristol City - Preston 1-1  1/2 LOSS
Watford - Nottingham Forest 1-1  DRAW
Plymouth - Swindon 0-4  WON
WBA - Man City 0-2  LOSS

Statistic:

November
Profit: -5.6 units Yield: -14.36%

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Season
Profit: -33.46 units Yield: -8.25%

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Plymouth – Swindon

The Pilgrims are waking up in the League One. Two home wins in a row, against league giants Huddersfield (2-1) and in the midweek vs. Bristol Rovers (3-1). They’re creating plenty of goal chances lately and possess great attacking potential. Bradley Wright-Phillips is league top goal scorer, they have fast wing play and legendary striker Rory Fallon who is back after injury. However, defense with 25 conceded goals in 15 games looks far from being secure. Additional problem for the back line is missing of two players, defender Johnson and goalie Button. Midfielder Conor Clifford is Cup tied.

Swindon are just a shadow from a team from previous season and play-off ambitions look unrealistic at this moment. Team’s mascot and top goal scorer, Billy Painter, went to Leeds, but their major problem is (same as with Plymouth) too much conceded goals (27 in 15 games). Additional headache for boss Danny Wilson is he cannot count on three defenders. Frampton,  Jean-Francois  and Amankwaah are all out! Good news is winger, Matt Ritchie, got the permission from Portsmouth to play today. Wilson was storming out on older players, after midweek 0-3 home defeat against Charlton for lacking of effort and giving a bad example to the youngsters. There should be some positive reaction from them.

Two attacking minded sides with big problems in the defense lines. FA Cup (and money rewards) should be a nice motivation. I can give a small advantage to the home side, but see goals as a better option.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.80 bet365
Stake: 8/10

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Sheff Wed – Brighton

Wednesday should be main contender for direct promotion from League One and opening two rounds just confirmed my opinion. In the first round defeated Dag&Red 2-0, but should have scored few times more. Only weakness so far, was visible in the first half of second game (Colchester, 1-1 away). Manager Alan Irvine changed his 4-3-3 formation and they were outplayed. In the 2^nd half sent Mellor on pitch and got an equalizer from him. Mellor’s fitness is improving and with Morrison and Tudgay makes a killing trio. However two missings for the Owls, winger Jermaine Johnson and midfielder Tommy Miller.

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Brighton made a very good start of campaign. In the opening day, a great victory away to Swindon (2-1). Looked good as well in the second game dominating against Rochdale, but red card spoiled their plans and a draw at the end. However, Gus Poyet lads should be in the top half of the table at the end of season and no one will take them lightly. They’ll be without 3 important players. Defender Gordon Greer and midfielder Matt Sparrow are suspended, while another midfielder Alan Navarro is injured and will miss the game.

 

Wednesday, in my opinion, have better team than they had in Championship last year. I see them losing points in games where underestimate the opponents. Maybe it looks like a paradox, but Brighton’s seriousness will pull out the best from Wednesday. Home win.

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Bet: Sheff.Wed. -0.5ah

Odd: 1.93 Pinnacle

Stake: 8/10

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More to follow...

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A decent day and profit

Millwall 3 - 2 Swindon T.  WIN

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Blackpool 2 - 1 Nottingham F.  WIN

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Norwich C. 0 - 2 Carlisle U. 

Southampton 3 - 1 Southend U.  LOSE

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Leeds U. 2 - 1 Bristol R.  LOSE

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Millwall – Swindon

Calculation is simple for both sides, a win in this game would lead them to Championship if Leeds fail to win (Millwall would also be second if Leeds lose with two or more goals margin). Millwall entered a bad run of results in the worst possible time. Have just one win in last four games (three were on the road though) and missed the chance to use Leeds failure in the previous round. However, at home have just one defeat of 22 games (5 draws) with impressive goal difference 45-13. Eight home wins and a draw of last nine! And interesting thing is they’ve had much more problems against bottom sides than against top clubs. They defeated Norwich, Leeds, Charlton, Huddersfield, Colchester, but only lost came from second bottom side Wycombe and drew vs. Carlisle, Yeovil, Brighton, Brentford (5th was S’ton)! Striker Steve Morison is struggling with a hamstring problem.

Swindon have had a great season, but as Millwall made a bad run of results in bad time and lost second spot. Just one win of last five (also one defeat though). In the previous round defeated Brentford 3-2, but three consecutive draws against bottom sides before that (Exeter, Walsall and Wycombe) and 0-3 defeat vs. Colchester. It seems they’re losing the breath, but certain problem will be lack of experience of playing the games like this. At New Den will be without striker Vincent Pericard and midfielder Kurt Hammonds, while winger Alan O'Brien should appear. 

This will be a real fight on the pitch. Millwall lost their chance in the previous round and now will play without too much pressure. A win could promote them, but in worse case (if Leeds win) will bring them good position (3rd) for the play-off. My prediction is tough game and win by one goal. 188bet offer 2.09, home win.

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