Birmingham - Sheff Wed

Brum are quite impressive in Cup competitions this year, have already secured a Wembley final in Carling and perform very well in FA Cup. They scored a lot against lower division sides, four in previous round at Millwall, three against MK Dons, Rochdale and Coventry. Birmingham don’t have a midweek game and Alex McLeish could name a strong squad. However, he’s facing some problems in the back line since defenders Jiranek, Ridgewell and Davies are all rated as doubtful.

Wednesday are a real mystery for me. They have enough quality to, at least, fight for a play-off spot, but they currently hold a miserable 16th place with 10 points less than 6th Posh. They haven’t won in nine league games and lost seven away games in a row (in those seven, goal diff 6-22). Mandaric appointed Gary Megson as a manager and I expect some improvement. Striker Medine is cup tied, midfielder Coke suspended, mid Miller and def Buxton are in doubt.

Birmingham are strong favourites in my opinion, they have a habit to score a lot against teams from lower divisions and Wednesday’s defence is just terrible at the moment. On the other hand, this will be the first game after a while that visitors will play without any pressure. Goals should be the better option than home win.

Bet: over 2.5
Odd: 1.96 188bet
Stake: 8/10

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Saturday's results and statistic update

Trend of weird results in England continues. I'm glad I didn't touch Charlton or Arsenal at very good odds. It's a pity Brum didn't convert some of the chances, but considering all shocks yesterday I accept minimal loss as a good day.

Leeds - Sheffield United  1-0  WON

Birmingham - Wigan  0-0  LOSS

Statistic:

September
Profit: -4.98 units Yield: -5.72%

Season
Profit: +20.38 units Yield: +10.11%

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Birmingham – Wigan

Birmingham made a decent start of the season with home win against Blackburn and staying undefeated vs. Liverpool as well as in two away games (Sunderland and Bolton). Then came a tragedy for them expressed in derby defeat against WBA 1-3. Team reacted positively and defeated MK Dons in a Cup game. Brum are very good at their St Andrew’s and if they don’t lose today it will be one year without a home defeat! They brought on loan Alexander Hleb from Barca and he should make a great impact on the right flank. Birmingham are in second, usually very dangerous, season in the top crew and avoiding relegation is main objective. To reach that, they must win the games like Wigan at home. James McFadden is injured.

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After just five rounds passed, Wigan already announced their candidacy for moving down to Championship. One very lucky victory (over Spurs on the road, 1-0), one draw (Sunderland at home, 1-1) and three defeats with shocking goal difference 2-13! Wigan have only won one of their last eight Premier games and before Spurs, they had noticed six consecutive defeats on the road. In the previous round, Man City took all 3 points from DW Stadium with Wigan had not a single attempt on a target. They look very bad and I think manager Roberto Martínez is close to face the exit door. Only light in the dark is N’Zogbia’s recent shape, but it cannot be enough to push the whole team. Captain defender, Gary Caldwell, is still sidelined as well as midfielder Cleverley. 

 

It’s a big difference in quality, here. Birmingham will play for the fans as it is first game after WBA and this should be their “best shot” (or very near to that). I’m aware the most of their wins are with a goal margin, but here expect something more.

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Bet: Birmingham -0.75
Odd: 2.12  188bet
Stake: 8/10

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