Championship and League One betting, 25 Feb

a

Portsmouth - Leeds

Portsmouth are in big financial problems that, according to Liam Lawrence, do affect the players. They have been docked ten points (dropped into relegation zone), are also in administration, lost best striker to Birmingham and will be without striker Dave Kitson! Additionally, they’ve lost five matches out of last seven.

Leeds are coming to the town with Neil Warnock in charge. At their previous trip they lost vs. last placed Coventry, but at Elland against Donny whites made a big come back and won from 0-2 to 3-2. Allegedly, Warnock made a half-time speech in the dressing room. They seem to be in completely opposite trend than Pompey.

I am taking some coverage in case of a draw, but idea is to back Leeds.

Bet: Leeds -0.25
Odd: 2.00 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 8/10
p

Charlton - Stevenage

The Addicks are topping the table with seven points margin, but lately playing with their fans nerves making three draws out of last four in league. They’ll miss again striker Danny Haynes, but skipper johnnie Jackson is back. Defence line will also go to normal as right-back Solly returns to squad and Rhoys Wiggins will move to his natural position at the left side.

Stevenage lost their first game under Gary Smith, by a stoppage time goal at Notts County. Before that, they stopped Spurs at home in Cup (0-0) and this is their 3^rd tough game for only six days. They won’t have fresh legs and not like they’re not going to need them today.

I am backing Charlton here at more than acceptable odd.

Bet: Charlton
Odd: 2.10 (Ladbrokes)
Stake: 7/10
p
Support the blog and open a betting account using the banners from the left. You'll get some free bets as well.
Make e-mail subscription and get my picks directly in the mail box.
p

Championship betting, Leeds - Ipswich

d

Leeds seem to be losing the pace (one win out of last six in league) and with problematic Howson’s sell that should follow, play-off place looks far at the moment (although it’s only 3 points distance). However, their home games have produced an average of 2.75 goals and Leeds have scored in every of their 15 games against bottom half sides.

Ipswich are in a poor form as well, winless in five in league, but actually like to play against Leeds since they haven’t been defeated in nine (both home and away) and won’t lack any confidence. Problem is they have the worst defence in second tier (51 goals - 26 games) and away it looks even worse as their trips have produced an average of unreal 3.54 goals per a game. They’ve also conceded in 13 of last 14 in a league.

It is so strong statistics and considering unrest among Leeds fans that could put an additional pressure, it could be one of those crazy games. Over for me.

Maybe one more, later...

Bet: Over 2.75
Odd: 2.01 (Canbet)
Stake: 7/10
p
Support the blog and open a betting account using the banners from the left. You'll get some free bets as well.
Make e-mail subscription and get my picks directly in the mail box.
p

Championship - last round 7 May

Now it becomes really ridiculous. FA has delayed its verdict to Monday as the earliest date. This practically means QPR, Cardiff, Swans and even Leeds won’t even know for what they’re playing.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/football/13301409.stm

I think Warnock will ask lads for “one more time”, to finish it with the style and pray for the best. Leeds have, not only to win, but to hope Nott Forest will lose at C.Palace and eventually to overcome -6 goal difference! Hm... QPR still could be a very good bet (2.20 at William Hill and 188bet). As well as Cardiff and Swansea. Cardiff will certainly try to regain some confidence after Monday’s embarrassment. 2.90 in some form of handicap looks decent (let’s say 0.0 @ 2.12 188bet). Brendan Rodgers says Swansea are normally preparing for play-off. Against bottom eight clubs, they have six wins of seven games (this will be 8th). Sheff Utd made a sensational win at Reading, but then in a decisive game missed to defeat Barnsley at home! How painful it could be?! I guess no one there will be in the mood for football tomorrow. Which again, makes -1ah @ 1.93 Pinnacle probably a very good call. 

For the end, here’s one very good article from QPR fans’ forum. And very depressive for them. Guy predicts 30 points deduction with very good reasons and examples from the past. 

http://www.qprnet.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=10013&start=15

Betting previews will follow...

Support the blog and open a betting account using the banners from the left. You'll get some free bets as well.
Make e-mail subscription and get my picks directly in the mail box.
p

Championship 30 Apr - Preview of the round, betting tips and previews

Nottingham Forest - Scunthorpe

The most interesting will be the fight for the last play-off space. Forest have clear calculation. They’ll get it with six points from games against, all but predictable, Scunny at home and Palace on the road that could be a real last day cracker. The main problem is defence line that conceded 17 goals on last 7 games. Scunny could be able score and push this game in over. But also, a sensation is not a strange word for the visitors. They defeated Forest at home, where also trashed the leaders QPR (4-1). On the road shocked Hull and Reading. It’s an easy choice to leave this game alone.

Leeds - Burnley (1:45 cet)

Leeds need to win both times (in last round they’ll visit QPR who btw. could face a penalty and points deduction at Tuesday) and to hope Forest (and Millwall of course) will slip somewhere. After they wasted many points in last five rounds it’s not so big chance, but Leeds are the kings of drama and since the end of golden era in 90s just very few times they haven’t presented a stressful finish to their fans. Burnley noticed only a draw at home vs. Pompey, it could affect their morale but they’re still one point above Leeds. Draw is unacceptable for both sides and whoever will take a lead, will also try to improve goal difference for the final ranking. I could give some advantage to Leeds, but my main choice will be goals.

Millwall - Swansea

There will be hell, the Lions are in the race again and packed Den will host Swans. They won six of last nine games and big boost is a return of their key man and top scorer, Steve Morison, after he served a three match suspension. Swansea have secured their play-off spot where they will probably face Reading. Reasons for a good effort are 4th place (playing re-match at home) and improving recent away record (a draw and four defeats out of last five) and self-confidence before decisive matches. It will be hard, since Swans have a discouraging record on the road against top side teams, losing seven out of nine. Another thing is very interesting. In the previous game, Brendan Rodgers left on the bench probably his best player - Scott Sinclair. He said that young player has never played the full season, looks very tired and he’ll try to manage it. If you’re afraid for the best player, the Den is definitely not a place for him. So, maybe he will just save him for play-off.

Derby - Bristol City

Derby are safe, but looked in a very good shape, putting some more than decent displays recently. Defeated Leeds at home, grabbed a point at Loftus Road and undeservedly lost at Norwich in 96th minute. A win in the last home game could be a satisfaction. This will be also the last game for Robbie Savage and I can expect some additional effort from the players for their skipper. City are also safe, but look like they are already planning summer holidays as they’ve noticed four defeats and a draw out of last five. They will also miss the best striker, Nicky Maynard.

Hull City - Crystal Palace

Hull blew their play-off chances, Palace need a point to be mathematically safe. The hosts haven’t won in 15 of 22 home games, losing vs. bottom sides Scunny and Sheff Utd. Palace are a tough nut to crack on the road recently, taking two points from last two trips (Donny and Leicester). Four of last five games between these clubs ended undecided. This game has a draw written all over it. 

Bet 1: Leeds - Burnley, over 2.50, Odd: 1.80 Interwetten, Stake: 8/10

Bet 2: Millwall -0.25, Odd: 2.11 Canbet, Stake: 8/10

Bet 3: Derby to win, Odd: 2.30 William Hill, Stake: 7/10

Gamble: Hull - C.Palace, draw @ 3.75 bet365, Stake: 2/10

(Early bets, since the odds will probably drop tomorrow.)

*table taken from bet365.com

l  

Support the blog and open a betting account using the banners from the left. You'll get some free bets as well.
Make e-mail subscription and get my picks directly in the mail box.
p
 

Leeds - Reading

A big pressure on Simon Grayson’s side. They have won just once of last six games, but still occupying the 6th spot. They’re top league scorers (78 goals on total of 42 games and 46 on 21 at home), they have scored on 13 of last 14 home games and 9 of last 11 at Elland Road went in over. This is do or die game for Leeds, another failure would see them below the line. Key defender and skipper, Richard Naylor, could make his first start since October. But, key question is will Luciano Becchio be in the line up. Considering odds movement (raising the prices on home side and goals), he’s out.

Visitors are the absolute hit. Twelve league games without defeat, with eight consecutive wins! Differently from the hosts they won’t feel any pressure since the play-off spot is safe (nine points above the line), but they could see a chance for a direct promotion. They are the third league scorers in total (73 goals on 42 games) and second best on the road (34 goals on 21 games) scored in each of last 13 league games, in nine of those scored twice or more. Striker Noel Hunt is in doubt.

This is the game of great importance, especially for Leeds. Both sides are attacking minded and whoever concedes first won’t give up. I have no clue about the winner, but goals should be a pure logic.

Bet: Over 2.75
Odd: 2.03 Canbet
Stake: 8/10
.
Support the blog and open a betting account using the banners from the left. You'll get some free bets as well.
Make e-mail subscription and get my picks directly in the mail box.
p

Picks for Saturday

Just picks for tomorrow. From the next round, will be regular selections including analyzes.
Btw. with 27% yield and 28.9 units of profit, March is the best month so far this season. Hope trend will continue.
.
Premier League
Wolverhampton - Everton (1:45 cet)
Bet: Wolves 0.0
Odd: 1.85 Gamebookers
Stake: 9/10
.
Championship
Millwall - Leeds (4:00 cet)
Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 2.02 Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10
.
Support the blog and open a betting account using the banners from the left. You'll get some free bets as well.
Make e-mail subscription and get my picks directly in the mail box.
p

Preston - Leeds

North End are stuck for the bottom with 10 points below the relegation line and it seems there’s no wonder that could keep them in Championship. They’re 13 games without win in league (6D, 7L) and have won only one of last 21! They also conceded second highest number in league (62 goals in 35 games). Phil Brown has a long row in front the medic. Six players are rated as in doubt. Goalie Lonergan, def Morgan, def Gray, str Ellington, def Cort and mid Nicholson. So, goalie and three defenders in the poorest side in second tier.

Leeds are strong play-off (and promotion, in my opinion) candidates. However, they continue to play with the nerves of their fans, scoring goals for fun but conceding as well. 2-2 and 3-3 at home, then 0-3 at Swans and from 1-0 and 1-2 till 5-2 against Doncaster! They’ve brought midfielder Barry Bannan (till the end of season) from Villa and this lad could have very important role in the team. Leeds have failed to score in only four Championship games out of 35. One more reason for a good display will be first game at Elland where Leeds had 4-1 lead and eventually lost 4-6!

Goals look like an obvious and very popular bet, but it’s more my feeling that Grayson will demand tighter defence and not so open game. After almost every Leeds high scoring game this season, a low scoring one followed. The difference in quality is huge and I expect their safe win (something like 0-2), but took -0.25 line just in case. 

Bet: Leeds -0.25
Odd: 1.78 10bet
Stake: 8/10
p
Support the blog and open a betting account using the banners from the left. You'll get some free bets as well.
Make e-mail subscription and get my picks directly in the mail box.
p

Leeds - Doncaster

Leeds are holding a play-off spot, but haven’t won in last three games. They suffered 3-0 defeat at Swans, but played pretty well actually and were unlucky to stay empty handed (referee’s mistakes unlucky). They’re top scorers in Championship with 62 goals (conceded 55), while their 17 games at Elland have produced 64 goals (3.76 in average)! Johnson returns after suspension,  Connolly remains sidelined, Lloyd Sam is struggling with a virus.

After a horrible run of results, Donny’s injury list started to decrease and results have been improving. They’re undefeated in last three and are boosted with midweek away win at Derby. At that game, playmaker Stock and finisher Sharp (two goals) returned to the team. Donny’s 17 games on the road have produced 60 goals (3.53 average) and they’ve kept just one clean sheet!

Leeds are certainly the favourites here, but not sure does it worth at 1.65. On the other hand their attacking attitude and Donny’s passing style should guarantee an entertaining afternoon at Elland Road. Backed with strong statistical data, I think there shouldn’t be a room for mistake. I’m on goals.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.70 Expekt
Stake: 8/10
p
Support the blog and open a betting account using the banners from the left. You'll get some free bets as well.
Make e-mail subscription and get my picks directly in the mail box.
p
 

Leeds - Arsenal

Leeds are really good in FA Cup recently, knocked Man Utd  at Trafford and played a draw at White Hart Lane last year, in this campaign resisted at Emirates (almost won, actually). Also, United will be confident as they’re undefeated at home in last seven and failed to score only once in last 15 games. The pressure is off (understandable) and Elland will be packed. No way I’ll be against them in these circumstances. Becchio  got some injury against Scunny and is rated as doubtful, but I’d be shocked if he doesn’t start (as I was shocked with Cattermole at Sunday, though).

Problem with Arsenal is they’re missing too many chances and if don’t score until 60th minute, become nervous. On the other hand if Gunners manage to score in first 15-20 mins, they will run the riot. Leeds kept them quiet in the first encounter, will they be able to do that again? No, I don’t believe in it. Arsenal have Wigan for the weekend and Ipswich for six days (after 0-1) and nobody could really assume the team that Wenger will name. Before the Emirates’ draw, Gunners noticed three consecutive wins over Leeds, scoring 13 goals in those. Arsenal haven’t been knocked in the third round in past 15 years.  

I won’t be involved in the final outcome, but high scoring game and away win is my expected scenario. Don’t think Leeds can keep it tight again and I’m sure they really believe in progress. On the other hand, Wenger knows here’s no reply. Goals would be my call.

Bet: Over 3
Odd: 2.06 188bet
Stake: 8/10

Support the blog and open a betting account using the banners from the left. You'll get some free bets as well. 
Make e-mail subscription and get my picks directly in the mail box.
0

Latest results and statistic update

Manchester United - Arsenal 1-0 WON
Birmingham - Newcastle PP
Leeds - QPR 2-0 LOST
Ipswich - Leicester 3-0 LOST 

Updated statistic and list of bets.

Make e-mail subscription and get my picks directly in the mail box.
O

Leeds - QPR

Interesting odds for goals. Bookies based them on QPR, as Rangers conceded only 12 goals in past 20 games (needless to say the lowest number in division), while on the road allowed only five (lowest again). On the other hand, they haven’t kept a clean sheet in last three encounters and in London derby vs. Watford conceded three times (first loss this season).

Situation with Leeds is completely opposite. Championship games involving Leeds have produced 72 goals (more than any other club). They also have the worst home record, conceded shocking 20 goals in 10 games at Elland Road. Neil Warnock will surely try to use it. Home boss, Grayson, insists on attacking style (interesting fact is they hit the woodwork 15 times!) that should erase defensive errors. They never surrender and won amazing 14 points from matches in which they were behind.

I think this could be the first away defeat for QPR. On the other hand under soil heating at Elland is working perfectly and I can’t see any obstacle why we shouldn’t watch an open game. Becchio against Taarabt. This will be great. 2-1 correct score.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 2.10 Pinnacle, William Hill
Stake: 7/10

I hate snow! Liverpool should have been a bet of the day. Portsmouth and Cardiff... arghhh 

Make e-mail subscription and get my picks directly in the mail box.
p

Results and statistic update

Wigan - Stoke 2-2 DRAW
Leeds - Crystal Palace 2-1 WON
Sunderland - West Ham 1-0 LOST
Liverpool - Aston Villa 3-0 WON

Updated statistic and list of bets.

Make e-mail subscription and get my picks directly in the mail box.
l

Tuesday's results and statistic update

Good night after all. I was so annoyed when Colchester turned the game from 0-1 to 2-1 and then conceded for a draw. Then I paid attention on the other results... Complete chaos! I wasn't even thinking about Cardiff and QPR, but plenty of shocking results. Leeds, Nott Forest, Bristol Rovers, Hudders, Rotheram, Peterborough... Last 3 weeks in England are real mine field. But... Most important thing. My September is green, finally!!! Yes!

.p

Spartak Moskva - MSK Zilina  3-0  WON

Colchester - Dag & Red  2-2  LOST

Norwich - Leicester  4-3  WON

Statistic:

September
Profit: +1.82 units Yield: +1.65%

Season
Profit: +27.18 units Yield: +12.11%

.

See all bets
.

Make e-mail subscription and get my picks directly in the mail box.

.

Saturday's results and statistic update

Trend of weird results in England continues. I'm glad I didn't touch Charlton or Arsenal at very good odds. It's a pity Brum didn't convert some of the chances, but considering all shocks yesterday I accept minimal loss as a good day.

Leeds - Sheffield United  1-0  WON

Birmingham - Wigan  0-0  LOSS

Statistic:

September
Profit: -4.98 units Yield: -5.72%

Season
Profit: +20.38 units Yield: +10.11%

See all bets

.

Make e-mail subscription and get my picks directly in the mail box.

.

Saturday's results and statistic update

Couldn't decide what was the bigger shock, City or Wednesday. Can't really remember when all my picks were down at the half time. At least, good-old Leeds turned the game. However, total balance is positive, but September started bad. Hope for the better days.

.

.

.

Man City - Blackburn  1-1  LOSS

Leeds - Swansea  2-1  WON

Sheff Wed - Carlisle  0-1  LOSS

.

Statistic:

September

Profit: -15.3 units Yield: -69.55%

Season

Profit: +10.06 units Yield: +7.37%

See all bets

.

Make e-mail subscription and get my picks directly in the mail box.

.

Leeds - Swansea

Leeds suffered a shock at the opening day (1-2 Derby), but bounced back very fast. Seven points in next three games are more than decent achievement. A point away at Nottingham, home win vs. “old friends” Millwall and away win at Watford gave them strong wind in the back in their high ambitions. Main problem is defense line where Schmeichel is covering all the holes. However, great attacking potential and Grayson’s high-tempo style of play make from them a serious play-off contender. Leeds had 59 goal attempts - 31 of them on target - and hit the woodwork 7 times! They still miss Snodgrass and Paynter, but made some good signings (Faye, Nunez, Clayton and my favorite Ross McCormack).

.

Swansea seem still suffering from Sousa’s departure. And while at home look safe (won all three competitive games), on the road can’t keep a clean sheet (both league defeats, Hull and Norwich 0-2). I don’t think they’ll have a chance to join the race for a play-off spot and mid table position is the place where they’ll probably finish the season. However, boss Rodgers has big worries about missing players. Midfielder Darren Pratley is suspended, another midfielder Tom Butler is injured as well as strikers Beattie and Pintado. All four are important players. Swans were beaten on their last 6 visits to Leeds and their only away victory at Elland Road was a 2-1 win in 1949.

 

Leeds are maybe the best organized club in the second tier, have good squad quality and fans’ support. Elland Road should be a fortress this season and I really like these odds.

.

Bet: Leeds -0.25

Odd: 2.05 Canbet

Stake: 8/10
.

Probably one more.
.

Make e-mail subscription and get my picks directly in the mail box.

.

Saturday's results - great month in total

Hat-trick, my mates! August is a great month. Hope you enjoy.

Probably one pick, later.

.

Millwall - Coventry  3-1  WON

Man Utd - West Ham  3-0  WON

Watford - Leeds  0-1  WON

.

Statistic:

Profit: +29.36

Yield: +27.57%

See all bets

Watford - Leeds United

Watford made a decent start, with an opening win at Norwich (3-2) and two draws (Coventry at home and Hull away). They’re hard working, fighting team, but beside that in my opinion they don’t have to offer too much and still remains as main contenders for relegation. Boss Malky Mackay has a headache about some of his key players. Striker Danny Graham has a groin problem and he’s doubtful. Skipper Eustace, Lee Hodson and Martin Taylor have some injuries, but are expected to play. Watford have won only two of the 10 previous league matches between these clubs.

.

After shocking defeat vs. Derby in the first round, Leeds bounced back with a draw at Nottingham and a home win vs. Millwall. Simon Grayson has a decent squad and personally wouldn’t be surprised to see them in play-off, eventually. Biggest problem is back four and Kasper Schmeichel is usually forced to cover all the holes (he’s doing it great btw.). Good midfield and very strong attacking potential. Paynter and Snodgrass will be out for a while, but club signed excellent Ross McCormack from Cardiff and he could have his debut. Leeds have only lost once at Vicarage Road, 0-1 in March 1990.

 

This will be surely a tight affair. I’m surprised with these odds (expected same for both sides). I think Leeds will win this one, but leave some space for a draw.

.

Bet: Leeds +0.25ah
Odd: 2.09 188bet
Stake: 7/10
 
That's it for today, lads. Good luck!
.
Make e-mail subscription and get my picks directly in the mail box.

.

Tuesday's gossip column

TRANSFER GOSSIP

Manchester City manager Roberto Mancini has dismissed speculation linking striker Emmanuel Adebayor with a summer move from Eastlands.(mcfc.co.uk) 
Spanish giants Barcelona remain confident of signing Arsenal captain and midfielder Cesc Fabregas this summer. "We are working on it," said Barca president Joan Laporta, whose club are believed to be willing to offer £30m for the player, with the Gunners reportedly holding out for more than double that amount.(The Sun) 
Arsenal are reportedly interested in Bordeaux midfielder Yoann Gourcuff as a replacement for Fabregas should the Spaniard leave the Emirates. However, the Gunners would face competition for the Frenchman's signature from Lyon.(imscouting.com) 
Manchester United are ready to make an audacious swoop to sign Everton midfielder Mikel Arteta, who is struggling to make progress with the Merseyside club over an extension to his contract, which has two years still to run.(The Daily Mirror) 
Manager Tony Pulis is set to smash Stoke's transfer record with a £12m offer for West Ham striker Carlton Cole.(The Daily Mirror) 
West Brom expect to complete the signing of the Spanish centre-back Pablo Ibanez on a free transfer from Atletico Madrid on Tuesday.(The Daily Mail) 
The Baggies are also set to bank about £3m from midfielder Jonathan Greening completing his move to Fulham, where he spent last season on loan.(The Daily Mail) 
Liverpool hope to deter Chelsea from making a move for winger Yossi Benayoun by demanding £10m for the Israeli.(The Daily Mail) 
Arsenal and Tottenham are leading the chase to sign Chelsea midfielder Joe Cole when he becomes a free agent this summer.(The Daily Mail) 
Newly promoted Blackpool hope to pip neighbours Preston to the loan signing of Manchester United striker Danny Welbeck and hope the prospect of Premier League football will help lure the 19-year-old. (The Daily Mail)
Birmingham have abandoned efforts to sign Wigan winger Charles N'Zogbia but Blues are interested in Celtic's Aiden McGeady and Hull's Stephen Hunt, who is also a £3m target for Wolves, West Ham and West Brom.(The Daily Mail) 
Wigan boss Roberto Martinez is chasing Colombian namesake striker Jackson Martinez, who he hopes to team up with fellow countryman Hugo Rodallega at the DW Stadium.(The Daily Mirror) 
Portsmouth defender Nadir Belhadj could reject the chance to join West Ham in favour of a lucrative move to Qatar, with Al-Sadd interested in signing the Algeria international. (The Daily Mail) 
Leeds are hoping to hijack Wigan's £800,000 move for Hamilton midfielder James McArthur by tabling a £1m plus add-ons bid of their own.(The Daily Mail) 
But Wigan have moved ahead of Sunderland in the race to sign Estudiantes striker Mauro Boselli by increasing their bid beyond the £6m offered by the Black Cats for the Argentina international.(The Daily Mail) 
Southampton boss Alan Pardew is lining up a double swoop for midfielders Brian Stock of Doncaster and Bristol Rovers' Chris Lines.(The Daily Mirror) 

OTHER GOSSIP

Aston Villa full-back Stephen Warnock could be a shock inclusion in England's final 23-man squad for the World Cup at the expense of Everton left-back Leighton Baines.(The Daily Mail) 
Tottenham manager Harry Redknapp is wanted by ambitious Dubai club Al-Ahli as they spearhead grand plans to overhaul football in the Middle East.(The Daily Mail) 
Inter Milan have made the first move in an attempt to convince Liverpool manager Rafael Benitez to switch to the San Siro to replace Jose Mourinho, who was yesterday unveiled as Real Madrid boss.(The Sun) 
Notts County are lining up Bradford boss Peter Taylor to succeed Steve Cotterill at Meadow Lane.(The Daily Mirror) 

AND FINALLY

Rangers defender Madjid Bougherra believes his Algeria side have the full backing of Scotland when they face England in the group stages of the World Cup this summer. "Everywhere I go in Glasgow people stop me and tell me to beat England," said Bougherra.(The Sun)

www.bbc.co.uk

.

Djokovic under 30.5 (2.10) 3-1 (33 points)
Verdasco to win (1.66) 1-3

double @ 3.48 LOST

Millwall – Swindon

Calculation is simple for both sides, a win in this game would lead them to Championship if Leeds fail to win (Millwall would also be second if Leeds lose with two or more goals margin). Millwall entered a bad run of results in the worst possible time. Have just one win in last four games (three were on the road though) and missed the chance to use Leeds failure in the previous round. However, at home have just one defeat of 22 games (5 draws) with impressive goal difference 45-13. Eight home wins and a draw of last nine! And interesting thing is they’ve had much more problems against bottom sides than against top clubs. They defeated Norwich, Leeds, Charlton, Huddersfield, Colchester, but only lost came from second bottom side Wycombe and drew vs. Carlisle, Yeovil, Brighton, Brentford (5th was S’ton)! Striker Steve Morison is struggling with a hamstring problem.

Swindon have had a great season, but as Millwall made a bad run of results in bad time and lost second spot. Just one win of last five (also one defeat though). In the previous round defeated Brentford 3-2, but three consecutive draws against bottom sides before that (Exeter, Walsall and Wycombe) and 0-3 defeat vs. Colchester. It seems they’re losing the breath, but certain problem will be lack of experience of playing the games like this. At New Den will be without striker Vincent Pericard and midfielder Kurt Hammonds, while winger Alan O'Brien should appear. 

This will be a real fight on the pitch. Millwall lost their chance in the previous round and now will play without too much pressure. A win could promote them, but in worse case (if Leeds win) will bring them good position (3rd) for the play-off. My prediction is tough game and win by one goal. 188bet offer 2.09, home win.

Available free bets, bonus offers and promotions:
Expekt - First deposit bonus up to €35 / £25 for all new customers
Make your first deposit at expekt.com and we will immediately double your money up to max €35 / £25. Take these 3 easy steps to start profiting from sports betting: 1.Register an account with expekt.com here. 2.Deposit a minimum of €10 into your expekt.com account. 3.Send an email to 35eurbonus@expekt.com with your customer number and deposit amount included. The bonus amount up to €35/£25 will be added to your account within 48 h