Leyton Orient - Oldham

Londoners have made an incredible run of results. They haven’t lost a game in the division since the New Year day (run of 12 games) and became a serious play-off candidate (I would have never predicted that watching them trashing by Charlton in August). At home, they’re unbeaten in 16 competitive matches, have seven wins of ten in the league and three in the row. Key striker Revell will have a late fitness test, midfielder Smith and defender Chorley are also in doubt.

Athletic have slipped into the middle of table and they’re now at the same distance from play-off and the relegation zone. They’re winless in last eight in league (losing five of those) and have three defeats in a row. Despite scoring twice in defeat against Wednesday, they had not scored a single goal in six games before that. Midfielder Furman and striker Reid are suffering with a virus and both are rated as in doubt.

Orient should be the big favourites here, matter of team quality, recent shape and motivation. And I like the price, had expected something around 1.60 - 1.70. Home win.

Bet: Leyton -0.5
Odd: 1.84 188bet
Stake: 8/10
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Birmingham - Sheff Wed

Brum are quite impressive in Cup competitions this year, have already secured a Wembley final in Carling and perform very well in FA Cup. They scored a lot against lower division sides, four in previous round at Millwall, three against MK Dons, Rochdale and Coventry. Birmingham don’t have a midweek game and Alex McLeish could name a strong squad. However, he’s facing some problems in the back line since defenders Jiranek, Ridgewell and Davies are all rated as doubtful.

Wednesday are a real mystery for me. They have enough quality to, at least, fight for a play-off spot, but they currently hold a miserable 16th place with 10 points less than 6th Posh. They haven’t won in nine league games and lost seven away games in a row (in those seven, goal diff 6-22). Mandaric appointed Gary Megson as a manager and I expect some improvement. Striker Medine is cup tied, midfielder Coke suspended, mid Miller and def Buxton are in doubt.

Birmingham are strong favourites in my opinion, they have a habit to score a lot against teams from lower divisions and Wednesday’s defence is just terrible at the moment. On the other hand, this will be the first game after a while that visitors will play without any pressure. Goals should be the better option than home win.

Bet: over 2.5
Odd: 1.96 188bet
Stake: 8/10

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Bets for Tuesday

Portsmouth - Burnley

Pompey are struggling as usual with all kind of problems, skipper Mokoena and striker Dave Kitson will miss again, Hughes and Brown are again out because of “ongoing contract issues” and they’re in winless streak of seven competitive games (six in league). However, their recent performances and fighting spirit promise better days. They unlucky lost at Nott Forest, then stopped Leeds at home (without same those players). Portsmouth are undefeated in 10 league matches against Burnley and have won the last four against them.

The Clarets are middle table side and they probably won’t go anywhere from the league. They’re also poor travellers as they won on the road just once of twelve encounters (seven draws though). Defender Carlisle faces a late fitness test.

Only thing that bothers me is Pompey concede too much lately, at last five in league conceded 13 goals. Anyway, I think it’s the time for their win.
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Bet: Portsmouth 0.0
Odd: 1.88 Canbet
Stake: 7/10

 Sheffield Wednesday – Yeovil

Wednesday suffered an embarrassment at East London for the weekend. Players apologised to the fans, Irvine to the fans and Mandaric, Mandaric gave support to the manager. I think they’ll strongly bounce back tonight, or it will be end of Irvine. They still have very quality players for this division and Leyton smacked them right in the mouth. I expect a response and rage on the pitch.

And Yeovil... It’s simply Yeovil.

Bet: Sheff Wed -1ah
Odd: 2.21 Canbet
Stake: 7/10

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Leyton Orient – Sheff Wed

Leyton have a decent home record (five wins out of nine), but against top sides played only twice and both times lost (Charlton and Hudders). They’re just two points above the relegation zone and I can’t see them far from that at the end. They’ll be without defender Omozusi and midfielder Chambers.

The Owls have noticed just one win in last five league encounters, but seems the things started to improve for Wednesday. Financial problems should be solved with Mandaric as a new owner, club brought four players, while on the pitch team looks a way better. In last two games, they noticed two decent results. First away win at Cup vs. Bristol City, then in last round a draw at home against Charlton (came from 0-2). New striker Madine and defender Reynolds should have their debuts.

I like the price here. I’m sure Wednesday will finish in the top 6 and will start very soon to collect points. However, I can not overlook possibility of a draw. 

Bet: Sheff Wed 0.0
Odd: 1.89 Victor Chandler
Stake: 7/10

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Sheff Wed - Bristol Rovers

I already know on what I’ll bet today. Three bets, maybe even four. Will be posting analyzes one after another, so stay tuned...

Milan Mandaric took the charge at Wednesday. Fans probably aren’t delighted since he’ll get the stadium if club continue with losing money. However, sure thing is players can be focused only on pitch. This makes Wednesday most quality team in the third tier, once again. Only problem is on the position of right-back, since Buxton and Otsemobor are injured. Probably Daniel Jones will fill that position.

Rovers are not the side that like to park the bus in front the goal. They have fully complete rooster which will additionally strengthen their confidence based on the fact they already resisted at last two away games against strong opponents (Brighton and Charlton).

My vote for a home side. Visitors’ confidence and their probably more open game could bring them more balls in the net.

Bet: Sheff Wed -0.75
Odd: 2.06 Canbet
Stake: 8/10

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Van der Sar and statistic update

At the same minute Van der Sar decided to make a joke and Robert Koren made a first attempt on goal for Hull (from 30 yards). Unfortunately both situations ended with goals and something that should have been entertaining Saturday and money collecting turned into a serious disaster. Only light in the dark was Wednesday that played a game just as I expected and made a job done. I don't celebrate too much when win and don't moan when lose, but disturbing thing is entire list of results looks really shocking and it lasts for the couple weeks. However, better days are coming. Thanks for visiting and sorry for a bad run.


Manchester United - WBA  2-2  LOSS
Leicester - Hull  1-1  LOSS
Yeovil - Sheffield Wednesday  0-2 WON

Statistic:

October
Profit: -18.36 units Yield: -28.25%

Season
Profit: +1.82 units Yield: +0.61%

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Yeovil - Sheffield Wednesday

Yeovil started the season in usual manner that should predict them a bottom side of the table. They have gained 14 points in the opening seven rounds, four above the relegation line. They look fine in past few weeks, as they stopped S’ton at home (1-1) and in previous two rounds (both on the road) noticed two 1-0 wins. But, it’s fair to say one came against fellow strugglers Walsall (second, over Rochdale was a real surprise though) and same applies for both home wins (Tranmere and Leyton). Against top sides, they usually have lots of problems. They will be without two players, midfielder JP Kalala and defender Stam.

Wednesday, in my opinion, have the best squad in the third tier. Almost the same players from previous season with few extra signings should have been on the top already. However, some happenings outside the pitch and Alan Irvin’s defensive approach to the games (lots of criticism for that) caused a four defeats in a row (September). Then draw vs. Oldham and two consecutive wins, all three games without conceding. Especially important was 2-0 victory at Notts County. They’re in uptrend, coming away from crisis, players regain self-confidence and I expect a run of good results from them. Midfielder Giles Coke is in doubt, as well as excellent winger Jermaine Johnson.

Odds look very interesting here. Bookies made the offer with the influence of latest Yeovil’s results and bad Wednesday’s display against Orient. I really can’t see home side winning this one and expect Wednesday to keep it tight and to bag on or two goals.

Bet: Sheff Wed 0.0
Odd: 1.83 Victor Chandler
Stake: 8/10

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Hartlepool United - Peterborough United

Hartlepool are a League One side that avoided moving down for just one point in both of two previous seasons. A same dark prediction applies for the recent one as well. Only home win they noticed against drowning Walsall, but more important characteristic is they lost encounters against top sides without too much fight (Sheff Wed 0-5 and Carlisle 0-4, both at home), leaking a total of 15 goals in 5 home games! Decent resist was only against Swindon in the 2^nd round (2-2). In previous round, United froze Plymouth on the road 1-0 and in midweek defeated at home devastated Bradford. Caretaker Wadsworth will probably set the same squad that beat Pilgrims which means strikers Brown and Greulich remain sidelined. Midfielder Antony Sweeney could appear, however.

Peterborough remind me very much on WBA. They’re too strong for middleweight, but in light heavy get punches from all sides and finished seriously hurt. They’re again in League One and once again as favorites for promotion. Decent start and 2nd place for them. As today’s hosts, The Posh also have noticed some results that can roil the picture about their capabilities. They lost in both Cups, but in previous league game beat Carlisle on the road 1-0. I don’t expect them to finish lower than play-off spot and they’re not typical home side. Usually collect same number of points at home and away. Only  absence is skipper Grant McCann who is on away duty.

Hosts are strugglers with shaky defense and toothless attack. Visitors are one of the main title contenders and surely favorite here. Odds are too good to be overlooked. I expect away win.

Bet: Peterborough -0.25
Odd: 2.02 Canbet
Stake: 8/10

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Colchester - Dag & Red

Colchester are very good League One side and they’re only League One side that still haven’t notice a defeat in the opening 8 rounds. They have five draws, but should be mentioned their tough schedule and playing against top league clubs (draws against Sheff Wed, Carlisle, Plymouth and S’ton and win over Rochdale). In previous round Colchester defeated Tranmere, scoring three times in the first half of hour, making it very comfortable. Two defenders, Pat Baldwin and Brian Wilson, will face a late fitness test.

After eight rounds, Daggers have collected only 6 points and it seems their adventure in the higher level will hardly last longer than a season. Just one point on the road in previous four games with goal difference 2-8.  If there’s any reason for the optimism, it’s last round draw at Charlton. However, I don’t really think they can play two away games on that level twice in four days. They’ll miss two defenders for tonight’s game, Will Antwi and Abu Ogogo.

 

After tough games, Colchester should feel relaxation to see Daggers on the other half of the pitch. Another 3 points should launch them to the top. Smell of Championship could be the strongest motivation. Home win, 2-0 correct score.

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Bet: Colchester -0.75
Odd: 1.97 Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10

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Saturday's results and statistic update

Couldn't decide what was the bigger shock, City or Wednesday. Can't really remember when all my picks were down at the half time. At least, good-old Leeds turned the game. However, total balance is positive, but September started bad. Hope for the better days.

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Man City - Blackburn  1-1  LOSS

Leeds - Swansea  2-1  WON

Sheff Wed - Carlisle  0-1  LOSS

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Statistic:

September

Profit: -15.3 units Yield: -69.55%

Season

Profit: +10.06 units Yield: +7.37%

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Sheff Wed – Carlisle

Wednesday made a decent start of the campaign which should return them into Championship. It’s no need to talk about their potential. Players like Tudgay, Morrison, Potter, Purse or Mellor are definitely names for the higher level. In my opinion, they have even better team than last season when they were in the second tier. Boss Irvine has on injury concerns as the only missing is winger Jermaine Johnson. Despite the defeat in last round (away to Brentford, 0-1), Irvine will probably set unchanged side.

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Carlisle have noticed a good start without a defeat in 5 opening games. Defeated Brentford and MK Dons, resisted away to Plymouth and Colchester and drew at home vs. Swindon. I have an impression they’ve been playing little over their potential and expect their drop in the results. However, for the visit to Hillsborough manager Abbott can not count on midfielder duo Bridge-Wilkinson and Hurst, while Michalik already made his debut in defense line and is expected to appear again. Defender Danny Livesey remains sidelined.

 

Wednesday are main contender for a direct promotion, look like a mean machine recently (didn’t at Brentford though, but really should have got something from that game) and I can’t see them losing too much points this season, especially at home. With all respect, Carlisle’s role here will be to make, with their 2nd place, Owls serious.

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Bet: Sheff Wed -0.75

Odd: 2.00 bet365

Stake: 7/10
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That's it, good luck to all.
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Saturday's results

Bristol City were a shocker, but good day after all. Hope you enjoy.

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Sheffield Wednesday - Brighton  1-0 WON

Bristol City - Barnsley  3-3 LOSS

Birmingham - Blackburn  2-1 WON

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Statistic:

Profit: +14.62

Yield: +19.11%

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Sheff Wed – Brighton

Wednesday should be main contender for direct promotion from League One and opening two rounds just confirmed my opinion. In the first round defeated Dag&Red 2-0, but should have scored few times more. Only weakness so far, was visible in the first half of second game (Colchester, 1-1 away). Manager Alan Irvine changed his 4-3-3 formation and they were outplayed. In the 2^nd half sent Mellor on pitch and got an equalizer from him. Mellor’s fitness is improving and with Morrison and Tudgay makes a killing trio. However two missings for the Owls, winger Jermaine Johnson and midfielder Tommy Miller.

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Brighton made a very good start of campaign. In the opening day, a great victory away to Swindon (2-1). Looked good as well in the second game dominating against Rochdale, but red card spoiled their plans and a draw at the end. However, Gus Poyet lads should be in the top half of the table at the end of season and no one will take them lightly. They’ll be without 3 important players. Defender Gordon Greer and midfielder Matt Sparrow are suspended, while another midfielder Alan Navarro is injured and will miss the game.

 

Wednesday, in my opinion, have better team than they had in Championship last year. I see them losing points in games where underestimate the opponents. Maybe it looks like a paradox, but Brighton’s seriousness will pull out the best from Wednesday. Home win.

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Bet: Sheff.Wed. -0.5ah

Odd: 1.93 Pinnacle

Stake: 8/10

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More to follow...

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MK Dons – Dag & Red

Dons made a good start of the season with a win on the road, against decent Walsall side (2-1). New boss, Karl Robinson, will have his debut in front the home fans. He’ll also have a task to make first home win after 5 months. He stated that financial benefits will be a strong reason to try to progress as far as possible. He’ll be without suspended defender Mat Doumbe, but important midfielder Peter Leven has served his ban and returns to the squad. Gary MacKenzie could have his debut. Dons won all three games against tonight’s opponent.

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Dagenham are newly promoted side and already showed that avoiding relegation will be a hard task. They lost at the opening day against Wednesday 0-2, but disturbing is they didn’t look even competitive and could have conceded few more without any threat in front Wed.’s goal. They’ll probably be less focused here as their main target is league games and to keep all players fit. Boss John Still will probably rest his top striker Paul Benson, who has been carrying an ankle injury. They noticed defeats in all three attempts to pass the first round.

 

Dons looked impressive in the first round. They play at home ground, new boss has debut in front the fans, he’ll put out a strong team and I think they won’t be lacking in motivation. Dons should win this comfortably.

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Bet: MK Dons -0.75ah

Odd: 1.98 bet365

Stake: 7/10

Saturday's results

Considering shocks yesterday, I should be satisfied these games. However, I could buy a house from a money that Scunthorpe have burnt in past 2 years.

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Reading - Scunthorpe 1-2  LOST

Sheffield Wednesday - Dag & Red 2-0 WON

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Statistics:

Yield: +2%

Profit: +0.32

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Sheff. Wed. - Dag & Red

Wednesday should be (beside Southampton) the main contender for winning the league. They’ve made some changes in the squad. Strikers Leon Clarke and Francis Jeffers and goalie Lee Grant left the club, but management brought some very quality replacements. Striker Mellor and midfielder Sedgwick from Preston, ex Coventry top striker Clinton Morrison and former Man City and England Under-21 goalkeeper Nicky Weaver. Boss Irvine came too late to clean all the mess that Laws left in the club, but this season Wednesday with players like Tudgay, Purse, O'Connor, Miller, Johnson (beside mentioned four) should be too much for the rest of the league. Also, important thing is they made an arrangement with bank about financial debt and won’t be forced to sell the best players. Only concern for today’s game is mentioned winger Jermaine Johnson who is battling to overcome a knee injury.

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After securing promotion to the third tier for the first time by winning last season's play-off final, Dagenham became the bookmakers' favorites for relegation. Manager John Still worked wonders in getting them up, but if he can keep them there it will be a real miracle. Team simply has a limited potential and with average home attendance that rarely get above 2.000, they’ll be hardly competitive on this level. Dagenham have some doubts over defenders Scott Doe and Abu Ogogo who picked up knocks in pre-season, while striker Paul Benson is expected to start.

 

Home side is a main contender for the top and they look even stronger than in previous season. It’s always risky to take handicap in the first round, but beside obvious class difference, importance of a good start and packed Hillsborough should guarantee a convincing win. 2-0, or 3-0 correct score.

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Pick: Sheff.Wed. -1ah

Stake: 8/10

Odd: 2.04 Pinnacle 

Crystal Palace 1-1 West Brom

West Brom denied Crystal Palace the chance of securing their Championship status, handing relegation rivals Sheffield Wednesday a reprieve.
Palace, who need a buyer by the end of the season, went ahead when Steven Reid sliced a free-kick into his own net. 
But the Baggies drew level inside four minutes when Gabriel Tamas headed home a Chris Brunt left-wing free-kick. 
Palace, who had Neil Danns sent off for a headbutt, now face a relegation showdown at Wednesday on Sunday. 
With the Owls having lost 3-2 at Cardiff on Saturday, Palace knew three points against West Brom on Monday would have been enough for them to avoid relegation to League One. 
But the south Londoners failed to take their chance, meaning that a season to forget - during which they have been docked 10 points as a result of falling into administration and lost manager Neil Warnock to Queens Park Rangers - will be decided by a visit to Hillsborough. 
Bon Jovi's Living on a Prayer echoed round Selhurst Park before kick-off but during an engrossing game the home side's players fought tooth and nail to be the masters of their own fate. 
They gave themselves the perfect start when Darren Ambrose's well-placed right-wing free-kick was sliced past his own keeper by Reid from six yards. 
But Paul Hart's men were pegged back four minutes later when Tamas headed the visitors level.
However, in the last 10 minutes the Eagles twice had chances to make sure of the points only for substitute Stern John to head wide at the back post before, six minutes into injury time, Marek Cech cleared an Ambrose effort off the line. 
That Palace were even in a position to potentially snatch a winner late on was a testimony to both the wastefulness of the dominant visitors and the superb performance from home keeper Julian Speroni. 
The Argentine stopper produced a string of saves to deny the Baggies, most notably to keep out Chris Brunt from close range, tip over a dipping 35-yard effort from Graham Dorrans in the first half and block well-struck efforts from Cech and Youssouf Mulumbu in the second. 
In addition, West Brom striker Roman Bednar missed a number of good opportunities, heading a Dorrans cross against the bar and then shooting harmlessly wide after being released by the same player. 
After Danns was shown a straight red by referee Dean Whitestone for headbutting Dorrans it seemed certain that West Brom would make their numerical advantage count. 
But they were unable to do so, and Palace's own late profilgacy in front of goal means they face a long, nervous final game of the season in Sheffield. 
As long as Hart's men, who have a two-point advantage over Wednesday, avoid defeat they will beat the drop, sending the Owls down.
www.bbc.co.uk

Crystal Palace – WBA

Well, I won’t suggest anyone to follow this bet. The thing is I really like to gamble and taking this one is much more tempting for me than trying to find a treble in Scandinavia at Monday. And I’m still a little bit annoyed because didn’t have guts to take Hereford at Saturday. However…

Palace have two games to play. In the last round will face direct opponent Sheffield Wednesday on the road. So, a win tonight would leave them in Championship. In last 9 home games have 2 wins and 7 defeats. Strikers Alan Lee and Calvin Andrews are back in contention after injury, left-back Lee Hills is out. Palace are unbeaten in the club's last four matches against West Brom. 

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The Baggies are second away team in the leagues (a point less than Newcastle) and are undefeated in last ten league games (2 draws, 8 wins)! The problem is they’re theoretically second and their motivation could be a cause of problems tonight. Few reasons for professional attitude. Di Matteo said he’ll field his strongest available team (not a single reason to believe him though). First game in the season they lost at home 0-1, Palace scored from only chance. They would like to reach Leicester’s record of 92 points (have 89 now) from 2003. The last but not the least, this is Championship not Serie A. Well, reasons are not so strong, but made this odd acceptable in my opinion. Jerome Thomas won’t play and I couldn’t find anyone else who is 100% out. 

Palace desperately need a win which means will be very, very nervous from the start. Most of their goals come after shots from distance and set pieces (mentioned Lee is an ox in front and crucial man for this strategy). Which against WBA’s top defense could make a real frustration instead nervous. I think they won’t score tonight. One conceded goal would push them forward and open them too much. I'll take WBA -1 ah at 5.00, bookie is bet365! Correct result is 0-2.

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P.s.: Yeah, yesterday's double was very easy. Bah...

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Preston 2-2 Sheff Wed

Sheffield Wednesday scored twice in three minutes as they came from behind to earn a draw on manager Alan Irvine's return to Preston North End.
Billy Jones saw a shot blocked by Darren Purse but Neil Mellor reacted quickly to put North End ahead with a low right-foot strike. 
Lee Grant denied Mellor before Paul Coutts scored with a low strike. 
But Andy Lonergan failed to stop Tommy Miller's 30-yard strike and Marcus Tudgay equalised with a lofted finish. 
It was Irvine's first visit to Deepdale since he was sacked as Preston manager in December.
And his struggling team might have collected all three points but Lonergan made two excellent late saves to deny Leon Clarke.

www.bbc.co.uk

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Chelsea 0 - 1 Inter Milan (agg 1 - 3)

Jose Mourinho returned to Stamford Bridge in triumph as Inter Milan sent Chelsea crashing out of the Champions League.
Samuel Eto's clinical strike 11 minutes from time settled a scrappy encounter and sealed a place in the quarter-finals for Mourinho at the expense of the club he left in 2007 after a hugely successful three-and-a-half years. 
And the misery for Chelsea and coach Carlo Ancelotti was complete when Didier Drogba was sent off in the closing minutes after a penalty area clash with Thiago Motta. 
Mourinho's Inter were able to keep a subdued Chelsea at arm's length for the majority of a tense evening littered with fouls and spells of ill-feeling, with even the self-appointed "Special One" being targeted for abuse by the supporters who once idolised him as frustration spread around Stamford Bridge in the closing moments. 
He celebrated in relatively muted fashion when Eto'o capped a spell of Inter pressure with the crucial goal, after Diego Milito had missed the chance to seal Chelsea's fate even earlier.  
Chelsea had their moments in a frantic first half, with Michael Ballack shooting just wide and Nicolas Anelka seeing a close-range effort cleared off the line by Motta, while keeper Julio Cesar saved well from Florent Malouda after the break. 
And Chelsea were also left claiming they were victims of a clear injustice in the first half when Drogba was dragged to the ground by Walter Samuel as they wrestled to reach a corner. 
This apart, Inter were able to restrict Chelsea, who failed to show the wit and guile required to break them down, demonstrating the defensive discipline and resilience that is the trademark of any Mourinho team. 
He did not milk Inter's win at the final whistle, but Mourinho may just appreciate the irony of the fact that he has ended Chelsea owner Roman Abramovich's dream of bringing the Champions League to Stamford Bridge. 
For Ancelotti and Chelsea, the task is now to regroup and refocus their sights on the Premier League and the FA Cup.
www.bbc.co.uk

Preston – Sheff.Wed.

Preston are in the middle at 12^th place, but just five points far from play-off zone. They’re in the good run of results that recovered their pre-season ambitions. They have one home defeat of last nine encounters, winning top sides like Sheff.Utd. (2-1), Cardiff (3-0) and in last round Nott.Forest (3-2). I think team possess enough quality and with recent results (especially after first half display vs. Forest and 3-0 for 45 min.) they’re focused to keep the momentum and attack play-off. Defender Youl Mawene, left-back Tommy Wiliams and striker Jon Parkin are in doubt and will be assessed. Preston are unbeaten in 15 home league matches against the Wednesday.

 

Owls made a good start under new manager Alan Irvine (ex Preston), but very fast backed to their downtrend. They have four defeats in last five away games (one draw), with just one goals scored in those and ten conceded. That one draw came in the previous rounds vs. Swansea on the road. Wednesday were focused on defending, organized and eventually defended a point. Except fighting spirit, they don’t have to offer too much and I expect their same approach tonight. Additional strength will be Irvine who knows in details most of tonight’s opponent players. The Owls have failed to score in 15 Championship matches this season - more than any other team and scored 13 goals in total (just Peterborough scored less). midfielder Sean McAllister and defender Lewis Buxton are in doubt.

 

Those two clubs will have the opposite motives, but with the same intensity. Difference is Preston is actually in a good shape, while Wednesday usually struggling to keep 0-0. Quality difference is obvious, atmosphere in Preston is very good and I see them as winners. Pinnacle offer 2.07. Home win.

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Will post one gamble before the kick-off.

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