Premier League and League One betting, 7 Apr

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Stoke - Wolverhampton

The Potters are having a decent season despite four league games without a win. They put a problematic display last week, at the defeat from Wigan and Pulis will probably demand reaction from players. They lost the reputation of typical home side, but still have very good record against bottom sides.

Wolves look hopeless at the bottom place. Since Terry Connor took the charge, they have taken only a point (from possible 18). They also have scored only five goals in those six matches, while conceded 19 (3.17 average)! Some calculations say they will need five more wins to stay in league. Hardly to imagine, since they have a total of five wins in past 31 matches!

Wolves did create some chances and scored lately, but their defending is still horrible. With Stoke’s physical domination, every attack, free or corner kick will be a problem. I am on home side.

Bet: Stoke -0.75
Odd: 1.98 (bet365)
Stake: 9/10

Oldham Athletic - Charlton Athletic

Oldham look pretty safe from relegation and their results look like the players are already on the summer holidays. They’ve collected seven defeats out of last nine matches in league and on last three haven’t even scored.

The Addicks are the far best away team in the league, with again far best defence. Recently they’ve brought on loan two very good players for this level, midfielders Lee Cook (QPR) and Dany N'Guessan (Millwall), who should bring more attacking power.

I am going to back Charlton with very good odds.

Bet: Charlton
Odd: 2.25 (Unibet)
Stake: 7/10

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League One Betting, Oldham - Exeter

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Oldham don’t look that bad as the table shows. They put some decent displays recently, were probably the better side at Hudders but lost with a goal at the late stage. The problem will be fatigue from midweek Cup defeat at Chesterfield.

Exeter are pretty bad on the road, they’re second worst in league and have lost three of last four away (only positive result was win over bottom side - Chesterfield). Interesting is their two director flew to Brazil in attempt to arrange friendly.

I am going to back home side, here.

Bet: Oldham -0.5
Odd: 2.01 (188bet)
Stake: 6/10

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League One Betting, Oldham - MK Dons

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MK Dons had a mini crisis of four games without a win (including top oppositions Hudders, Sheff Wed and Charlton), while in the last round ended it with great 3-0 home victory over Notts County. They’re full of optimism, want to win the league and will certainly finish inside top six. Paul Dickov’s side has only one home win out of five (Rochdale), counting previous season it is one out of 15. They have experience (including Shefki Kuqi) and will have plenty of problems to cope with the Dons’ pace and passing game. Monday always calls for some caution, so no straight win.


Bet: MK Dons -0.25
Odd: 1.93 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 8/10
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Leyton Orient - Oldham

Londoners have made an incredible run of results. They haven’t lost a game in the division since the New Year day (run of 12 games) and became a serious play-off candidate (I would have never predicted that watching them trashing by Charlton in August). At home, they’re unbeaten in 16 competitive matches, have seven wins of ten in the league and three in the row. Key striker Revell will have a late fitness test, midfielder Smith and defender Chorley are also in doubt.

Athletic have slipped into the middle of table and they’re now at the same distance from play-off and the relegation zone. They’re winless in last eight in league (losing five of those) and have three defeats in a row. Despite scoring twice in defeat against Wednesday, they had not scored a single goal in six games before that. Midfielder Furman and striker Reid are suffering with a virus and both are rated as in doubt.

Orient should be the big favourites here, matter of team quality, recent shape and motivation. And I like the price, had expected something around 1.60 - 1.70. Home win.

Bet: Leyton -0.5
Odd: 1.84 188bet
Stake: 8/10
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A draw and a loss

Notts County 1 - 0 Rochdale

Notts County took a huge step towards sealing the League Two title with a deserved victory against second-placed Rochdale at Meadow Lane.
Both teams clinched automatic promotion on Saturday but Tuesday's result means that County are now four points clear of their rivals with a game in hand. 
County have won 12 and drawn two since the appointment of Steve Cotterill as manager to climb above stuttering Dale at the top of the table. 
And the home team undoubtedly created the better chances against Keith Hill's team, with the peerless Lee Hughes scoring the only goal with a shot from the edge of the box that Dale keeper Frank Fielding could not quite palm around the post. 
Fielding did make several good saves, denying Graeme Lee, Delroy Facey and Hughes, while Neal Bishop struck the woodwork. 
Dale boss Hill had ensured there would be plenty of spice to the contest with pre-match comments about their opponents' spending that drew a response from County chairman Ray Trew. 
But on the evening Rochdale, with just one goal in their previous five games, struggled to break down their well-organised opponents. 
Dale substitute Andy Howarth did come close to an equaliser but his thunderous 30-yard strike hit the crossbar.
Hill's side started the match confidently and at times played the brand of attractive football that has largely characterised their season but apart from Howarth's effort they failed to seriously threaten Kasper Schmeichel's goal. 
Gary Jones shot wide from outside the box, while Jason Taylor missed with a difficult header and later saw a powerful shot blocked. 
Notts were defensively well organised throughout and more direct in their approach, with the menacing Hughes their primary target. 
Hughes had the ball in the net after 13 minutes but his effort was ruled out for offside. However, there was no reprieve for Dale after a horrendous mix-up gifted an opening that the striker gratefully accepted with a precise strike. 
The mistake came after Chris O'Grady and Taylor each waited for the other to collect the ball, allowing the alert Bishop to nip in and play Hughes through on goal. 
Lee might have scored for County prior to Hughes's goal with a 14-yard strike that Fielding superbly saved low to his left, while shortly before the break Ben Davies ended a mazy run with shot that narrowly missed the target. 
County continued to threaten after play resumed, with Ricky Ravenhill inches wide, Bishop striking the woodwork from the edge of the box and Facey forcing another good stop from Fielding. 
But just minutes after coming off the bench, Howarth almost ended a mazy run with a sensational goal. Schmeichel was well beaten but the crossbar came to his rescue. 
The irrepressible Hughes later turned a Dale defender and drew another good save from Fielding with a shot across goal - and there was no doubt that County seemed most likely to score again. 
O'Grady might have scored an injury-time equaliser but his snatched effort missed the target.
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Southampton 0 - 0 Oldham

Southampton's hopes of a swift return to the Championship ended as battling Oldham held out for a goalless draw.
Rickie Lambert's tame 30-yard free-kick was the closest either side came in a drab first half at St Mary's. 
Adam Lallana had the first genuine chance in the second half but his strike at goal was blocked by a fine last-ditch challenge by Alex Marrow. 
Oldham's Tom Eaves was denied by Kelvin Davies while home substitute Papa Waigo missed an open goal late on.
www.bbc.co.uk

Southampton - Oldham Athletic

Saints are in a great run of results. They have seven wins and a draw of last eight competitive games, with a goal difference 21-7. It seems 10 points deduction made a positive impact in the dressing room and players started to play without any pressure. However, their chances to reach the play-off zone are not so big, but I think they’ll try to finish the job in style and will do all they can. In last round, they noticed hard fought victory with 10 men vs. Yeovil on the road with a goal in the 92th minute and it was additional moral boost. Alan Pardew will be without midfielder Morgan Schneiderlin who got a red card and earned a 4 matches suspension. Midfielder Antonio and strikers Barnard and Conolly are fit.

Oldham improved their results and they look safe with six points more than 21st Tranmere. They have just one defeat (Huddersfield, 0-2 away) of last five games and are undefeated in last three. But, their main problem is scoring goals. Oldham won 2-1 in last round against unmotivated Carlisle, but in previous six games scored just two goals. In the remaining rounds, beside S’ton, they’ll face Southend at home, Yeovil on the road and Charlton at home which means just a nightmare scenario could push them down to League Two. Boss Dave Penney will have all players available at St Mary's.

I think we’ll see one way traffic tonight. Southampton need a win and will attack from the start. Oldham will do what they do the best, defend with all players. With first conceded goal, their interest for this game will vanish. I predict home win with 2-3 goals margin. Odds have been raising and I think 1.91 at Pinnacle worth of a shot.
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