Southampton - Sheff Wed

The Saints are strong contenders for a direct promotion, they have 5 points less than 2^nd Hudders but also have three games in hand. Have noticed three consecutive wins, are scoring without too much effort and at the same have the best defensive record at home (conceded just 10 goals in 17 games). Midfielder Gobern is suspended, another two midfielders Schneiderlin and Do Prado will be sidelined again.

Wednesday appointed Gary Megson with intention to join a play-off race, but after miserable display vs. Posh at home (1-4) which was third home defeat in a row they could easily wake up in the relegation battle. They cannot defend at the moment, have conceded 11 goals in last four games. Two defenders, Rob Jones and Danny Batth, have been brought on loan but putting them both in starting line-up could make even more damage. Defender Beevers is out for the season, while the only good news is a return of full-back Buxton after the injury.

At St Mary's the Saints are the favourites regardless the name of the opponent, but 1.45 doesn’t look attractive for any side in League One. I think Wednesday will be able to score and see goals as a better option. Over for me.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.84 188bet
Stake: 8/10
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Southampton - Blackpool

S’ton are doing well in League One, second place and good run of results. Three wins in a row and eleven goals scored in those (one of them was Hudders at home 4-1). Nigel Adkins will name almost the strongest squad, only absentee is winger Lee Holmes. Striker Lee Barnard should be in starting eleven. Saints lost in the third round in only one of the last six seasons.

Holloway had an interesting press conference where he said he’ll name not weakened, but 2nd team at St Mary's. Premier League is priority, we play top games every week, blah blah. While his attitude is completely understandable, I don’t believe they’ll show the white flag before the kick-off. And it wouldn’t be the first time Blackpool to make a shock with fringe players. Also, I’m positive Holloway will not change the style of play. 

Southampton should be (at least) a slight favourite here, but at 1.90 it doesn’t worth imo. I will go for goals.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.75 Interwetten
Stake: 8/10
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Southampton - Bournemouth

Differently from previous season when they were playing without too much pressure (thankfully to 10 points penalty) and making some very good results, in this one Saints are one of the two main contenders for a direct promotion. They’ve noticed a bad start (0-1 at home, Plymouth), missing a lot of chances to score. Top scorer, Rickie Lambert, will miss another game, but attacking midfielder, Adam Lallana (20 goals in all competitions, last season), will start. Also, tonight’s opponent is local rival, from the same league and there shouldn’t be any under estimation. As I posted, Saints rarely lose in this round.

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Bournemouth progressed to the third tier and they’ll surely have a tough season. They’ve made some big signings (big for League One) that should allow them to be competitive. However they lost at South London vs. Charlton (which was expected), but the failure in the first home game (another promotion contender - Peterborough) could bring a pressure and problems. The biggest problem in League Two campaign was a limited number of players and squad depth. Simply, I think they have more important things to think about. Also, Bournemouth have lost in the first round four seasons in a row. Boss Eddie Howe has almost all squad available. Midfielder Hollands and striker Symes are not fully fit and they’ll take some part in the game, more likely than to start.

 

Saints need to bounce back to return the self confidence (before Plymouth, lost at home vs. Reading 2-4 in pre-season). I think St Mary's will be a hard place to go this season, expect a strong display from home side and few goals.

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Bet: Southampton -1 ah

Odd: 2.05 Bet365

Stake: 8/10

A draw and a loss

Notts County 1 - 0 Rochdale

Notts County took a huge step towards sealing the League Two title with a deserved victory against second-placed Rochdale at Meadow Lane.
Both teams clinched automatic promotion on Saturday but Tuesday's result means that County are now four points clear of their rivals with a game in hand. 
County have won 12 and drawn two since the appointment of Steve Cotterill as manager to climb above stuttering Dale at the top of the table. 
And the home team undoubtedly created the better chances against Keith Hill's team, with the peerless Lee Hughes scoring the only goal with a shot from the edge of the box that Dale keeper Frank Fielding could not quite palm around the post. 
Fielding did make several good saves, denying Graeme Lee, Delroy Facey and Hughes, while Neal Bishop struck the woodwork. 
Dale boss Hill had ensured there would be plenty of spice to the contest with pre-match comments about their opponents' spending that drew a response from County chairman Ray Trew. 
But on the evening Rochdale, with just one goal in their previous five games, struggled to break down their well-organised opponents. 
Dale substitute Andy Howarth did come close to an equaliser but his thunderous 30-yard strike hit the crossbar.
Hill's side started the match confidently and at times played the brand of attractive football that has largely characterised their season but apart from Howarth's effort they failed to seriously threaten Kasper Schmeichel's goal. 
Gary Jones shot wide from outside the box, while Jason Taylor missed with a difficult header and later saw a powerful shot blocked. 
Notts were defensively well organised throughout and more direct in their approach, with the menacing Hughes their primary target. 
Hughes had the ball in the net after 13 minutes but his effort was ruled out for offside. However, there was no reprieve for Dale after a horrendous mix-up gifted an opening that the striker gratefully accepted with a precise strike. 
The mistake came after Chris O'Grady and Taylor each waited for the other to collect the ball, allowing the alert Bishop to nip in and play Hughes through on goal. 
Lee might have scored for County prior to Hughes's goal with a 14-yard strike that Fielding superbly saved low to his left, while shortly before the break Ben Davies ended a mazy run with shot that narrowly missed the target. 
County continued to threaten after play resumed, with Ricky Ravenhill inches wide, Bishop striking the woodwork from the edge of the box and Facey forcing another good stop from Fielding. 
But just minutes after coming off the bench, Howarth almost ended a mazy run with a sensational goal. Schmeichel was well beaten but the crossbar came to his rescue. 
The irrepressible Hughes later turned a Dale defender and drew another good save from Fielding with a shot across goal - and there was no doubt that County seemed most likely to score again. 
O'Grady might have scored an injury-time equaliser but his snatched effort missed the target.
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Southampton 0 - 0 Oldham

Southampton's hopes of a swift return to the Championship ended as battling Oldham held out for a goalless draw.
Rickie Lambert's tame 30-yard free-kick was the closest either side came in a drab first half at St Mary's. 
Adam Lallana had the first genuine chance in the second half but his strike at goal was blocked by a fine last-ditch challenge by Alex Marrow. 
Oldham's Tom Eaves was denied by Kelvin Davies while home substitute Papa Waigo missed an open goal late on.
www.bbc.co.uk

Southampton - Oldham Athletic

Saints are in a great run of results. They have seven wins and a draw of last eight competitive games, with a goal difference 21-7. It seems 10 points deduction made a positive impact in the dressing room and players started to play without any pressure. However, their chances to reach the play-off zone are not so big, but I think they’ll try to finish the job in style and will do all they can. In last round, they noticed hard fought victory with 10 men vs. Yeovil on the road with a goal in the 92th minute and it was additional moral boost. Alan Pardew will be without midfielder Morgan Schneiderlin who got a red card and earned a 4 matches suspension. Midfielder Antonio and strikers Barnard and Conolly are fit.

Oldham improved their results and they look safe with six points more than 21st Tranmere. They have just one defeat (Huddersfield, 0-2 away) of last five games and are undefeated in last three. But, their main problem is scoring goals. Oldham won 2-1 in last round against unmotivated Carlisle, but in previous six games scored just two goals. In the remaining rounds, beside S’ton, they’ll face Southend at home, Yeovil on the road and Charlton at home which means just a nightmare scenario could push them down to League Two. Boss Dave Penney will have all players available at St Mary's.

I think we’ll see one way traffic tonight. Southampton need a win and will attack from the start. Oldham will do what they do the best, defend with all players. With first conceded goal, their interest for this game will vanish. I predict home win with 2-3 goals margin. Odds have been raising and I think 1.91 at Pinnacle worth of a shot.
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Southampton - Ipswich Town

Thankfully to 10 points deduction, Saints hold 13th place in the third tier with just three points more than teams from relegation zone. Lately they play very well at their St Mary's Stadium as they’ve noticed six games without a home defeat (four wins, two draws). However, boss Alan Pardew has some problems regarding starting eleven for today’s game. Two regular midfielders are out. Morgan Schneiderlin is suspended, while Dean Hammond is injured. Defenders Danny Seaborne and Jon Otsemobor are Cup tied, while another two from back line Radhi Jaidi and Graeme Murty are long term absentees. However, Saints haven’t lost in six at St Mary's, since Brighton's winning 3-1 visit on 15 November.

 

Ipswich are still struggling as they hold 19^th place in Championship with five points margin from relegation zone. After huge number of draws (13 so far!), Town started to scoring some goals and win. Have four wins in last six competitive games and scored eleven goals. Beside that, boss Kean carries attacking philosophy and his team has the highest number of goal attempts in second tier. They also look serious in this competition as they beat strong home side Blackpool in previous round, 2-1 on the road. Fact they have just a single defeat (C.Palace 1-3 away, Ipswich got a lead but also got a red card in the first half and conceded three times) in previous 15 games makes from them slight favorites today. Striker Jon Stead is suspended, midfielder David Norris will face a late fitness test, while goalie Brian Murphy is close to a return.

 

Alan Pardew is doing very well at Southampton as they still carry the hopes about play-off spot, but they already had too much problems against top League One sides (defeats vs. Leeds and Colchester), will have to overcome some important missings and I simply can’t see them winning today. Ipswich  will surely go for a win as the last thing that Keano wants is reply. I expect some goals and away win, but can not fully exclude a possibility of a draw. Dnb 2 is a bet, away win a gamble.

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