Brighton - Southampton

The Seagulls are new champions in League One and they did it on impressive way. 17 wins and 4 draws at home, best attack in league (don’t count Peterborough, of course), best defence, eleven wins and a draw in last 12 games! Hats off. Biggest betting concern is will they “slow down” and play with the youngsters. Or will they try to reach 100 points as Poyet mentioned few times. I think they wouldn’t like to lose at home and to lose from big rivals. The matter of principles, I’d say.

The Saints are also in a great shape and are pushing for a direct promotion. Hudders won today and they dropped on 3rd place (two games in hand). They have eight wins of last ten (one draw and defeat) and considering scored and conceded goals they’re just behind Brighton. Key player Lallana will probably play (despite rated as in doubt), Chamberlen and defender Harding as well.

I guess there’s a possibility to Poyet send youngsters, lose the game and pretend he doesn’t care. I don’t believe in that and expect a fight. Two best attacks and two clubs that like to pass. Goals for me, once again.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.96 Pinnacle
Stake: 7/10
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Peterborough - Southampton (18:20h)

I’ve just checked, Peterborough’s every home game this season included Cup ended in over 2.5 (18 games)! Twelve of those produced four or more goals. They play with diamond formation in midfield that guarantees goals and entertainment. Defender Zakuani and striker Hibbert are out, but loan Man City striker - David Ball will have his debut.

S’ton are strong promotion contender sitting fourth, five points far from second place. In previous round, Saints took all three points at hard trip to Exeter coming from behind to 2-1 in additional time (both goals by Rickie Lambert). Skipper Hammond should return, new striker Jonathan Forte should be in the team, while Lallana is in doubt.

Goals are pure logic for me. Additionally, these sides are rivals for promotion, don’t lack in confidence and will go for all three points.

Bet: Over 3ah
Odd: 1.80 188bet
Stake: 9/10

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Southampton - Bournemouth

Differently from previous season when they were playing without too much pressure (thankfully to 10 points penalty) and making some very good results, in this one Saints are one of the two main contenders for a direct promotion. They’ve noticed a bad start (0-1 at home, Plymouth), missing a lot of chances to score. Top scorer, Rickie Lambert, will miss another game, but attacking midfielder, Adam Lallana (20 goals in all competitions, last season), will start. Also, tonight’s opponent is local rival, from the same league and there shouldn’t be any under estimation. As I posted, Saints rarely lose in this round.

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Bournemouth progressed to the third tier and they’ll surely have a tough season. They’ve made some big signings (big for League One) that should allow them to be competitive. However they lost at South London vs. Charlton (which was expected), but the failure in the first home game (another promotion contender - Peterborough) could bring a pressure and problems. The biggest problem in League Two campaign was a limited number of players and squad depth. Simply, I think they have more important things to think about. Also, Bournemouth have lost in the first round four seasons in a row. Boss Eddie Howe has almost all squad available. Midfielder Hollands and striker Symes are not fully fit and they’ll take some part in the game, more likely than to start.

 

Saints need to bounce back to return the self confidence (before Plymouth, lost at home vs. Reading 2-4 in pre-season). I think St Mary's will be a hard place to go this season, expect a strong display from home side and few goals.

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Bet: Southampton -1 ah

Odd: 2.05 Bet365

Stake: 8/10

A draw and a loss

Notts County 1 - 0 Rochdale

Notts County took a huge step towards sealing the League Two title with a deserved victory against second-placed Rochdale at Meadow Lane.
Both teams clinched automatic promotion on Saturday but Tuesday's result means that County are now four points clear of their rivals with a game in hand. 
County have won 12 and drawn two since the appointment of Steve Cotterill as manager to climb above stuttering Dale at the top of the table. 
And the home team undoubtedly created the better chances against Keith Hill's team, with the peerless Lee Hughes scoring the only goal with a shot from the edge of the box that Dale keeper Frank Fielding could not quite palm around the post. 
Fielding did make several good saves, denying Graeme Lee, Delroy Facey and Hughes, while Neal Bishop struck the woodwork. 
Dale boss Hill had ensured there would be plenty of spice to the contest with pre-match comments about their opponents' spending that drew a response from County chairman Ray Trew. 
But on the evening Rochdale, with just one goal in their previous five games, struggled to break down their well-organised opponents. 
Dale substitute Andy Howarth did come close to an equaliser but his thunderous 30-yard strike hit the crossbar.
Hill's side started the match confidently and at times played the brand of attractive football that has largely characterised their season but apart from Howarth's effort they failed to seriously threaten Kasper Schmeichel's goal. 
Gary Jones shot wide from outside the box, while Jason Taylor missed with a difficult header and later saw a powerful shot blocked. 
Notts were defensively well organised throughout and more direct in their approach, with the menacing Hughes their primary target. 
Hughes had the ball in the net after 13 minutes but his effort was ruled out for offside. However, there was no reprieve for Dale after a horrendous mix-up gifted an opening that the striker gratefully accepted with a precise strike. 
The mistake came after Chris O'Grady and Taylor each waited for the other to collect the ball, allowing the alert Bishop to nip in and play Hughes through on goal. 
Lee might have scored for County prior to Hughes's goal with a 14-yard strike that Fielding superbly saved low to his left, while shortly before the break Ben Davies ended a mazy run with shot that narrowly missed the target. 
County continued to threaten after play resumed, with Ricky Ravenhill inches wide, Bishop striking the woodwork from the edge of the box and Facey forcing another good stop from Fielding. 
But just minutes after coming off the bench, Howarth almost ended a mazy run with a sensational goal. Schmeichel was well beaten but the crossbar came to his rescue. 
The irrepressible Hughes later turned a Dale defender and drew another good save from Fielding with a shot across goal - and there was no doubt that County seemed most likely to score again. 
O'Grady might have scored an injury-time equaliser but his snatched effort missed the target.
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Southampton 0 - 0 Oldham

Southampton's hopes of a swift return to the Championship ended as battling Oldham held out for a goalless draw.
Rickie Lambert's tame 30-yard free-kick was the closest either side came in a drab first half at St Mary's. 
Adam Lallana had the first genuine chance in the second half but his strike at goal was blocked by a fine last-ditch challenge by Alex Marrow. 
Oldham's Tom Eaves was denied by Kelvin Davies while home substitute Papa Waigo missed an open goal late on.
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Friday's gossip column

TRANSFER GOSSIP 

Chelsea are willing to pay £40m for 27-year-old Valencia striker David Villa. (Various) 
Cash-strapped Valencia will actually demand £45m for the Spanish international. (Daily Express) 
Chelsea are also keen on Tottenham forward Roman Pavlychenko, with manager Gus Hiddink criticising Spurs boss Harry Redknapp's treatment of the player. (The Sun) 
Manchester United will offer Fraizer Campbell - currently loaned out to Spurs - a new long term contract in the summer. (Daily Mirror) 
Fulham are lining up a bid to land England Under-21 star Adam Lallana from Southampton. (Daily Star) 
Chelsea are preparing a £10m swoop for Paris St Germain midfielder Stephane Sessegnon. (The Sun)  
Fulham will continue their quest to sign Spurs duo Gareth Bale and Tom Huddlestone at the end of the season. (The Times) 
Manchester United are closing in on 18-year-old Brazilian star Douglas Costa from Gremio. (The Sun) 
 
OTHER GOSSIP 

Ahead of their clash with Liverpool, Blackburn boss Sam Allardyce has laid into Reds boss Rafa Benitez by saying he loves "whingeing and moaning". (Various) 
Bayern Munich, fresh from a 4-0 drubbing by Barcelona in the Champions League, want Arsenal boss Arsene Wenger to replace Jurgen Klinsmann as manager and are willing to pay the Frenchman £5m a year. (Daily Mail) 
SFA chief Gordon Smith has made a U-turn in the row over Barry Ferguson and Allan McGregor's Scotland future. A day after saying they could return, Smith has now written off their hopes of playing for Scotland again. (Daily Record) 
Spurs manager Harry Redknapp reckons his midfielder Tom Huddlestone could be as good as Glenn Hoddle. (The Guardian, Daily Mirror) 
Former Newcastle striker Les Ferdinand reckons the club's temporary boss Alan Shearer will not leave St James' Park if he fails to prevent relegation from the Premier League. (The Sun) 

AND FINALLY 

Shearer has been grabbing advice from Newcastle's former bosses such as Kenny Dalglish, Sir Bobby Robson and Kevin Keegan. Their message to him was: "Welcome to the madhouse". (Various)
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