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Blue Square Bet Premier, Barrow - Alfreton Town

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Barrow have pretty strong home record with six wins (two draws and two defeats) out of ten home games. At home turf, they’ve already beaten top two sides, Fleetwood Town (4-0) and Wrexham (3-1). It is only Wrexham’s defeat out of their 11 on the road. Barrow are winless in last three in league, but there was some improvement in previous game at Telford where the Bluebirds played pretty well, but thankfully to home goalie (named as man of the match) stayed empty handed.

Alfreton have the second worst record on the road, as they took only four points from their ten trips (eight defeats, draw and one win). This is long journey for them and as I understood they’ll be without three players in defence line and a winger.

I think there’s some decent value on home side and since four of their six home wins came with two or more goals margin, I go even further and am taking -0.75.

Bet: Barrow -0.75
Odd: 2.05 (188bet)
Stake: 7/10
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League One Betting, Rochdale - Brentford

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Rochdale defeated Preston in previous round which however was their first win after six in league and two in Cup. At home they’ve won only two games out of nine, against bottom-half sides Wycombe and Scunny.

Brentford oppositely lost in previous round, against side from the top - Charlton at home. But, they seem to enjoy their travelling as they haven’t lost in ten on the road (eight in league and two in Cup). In last two trips, stayed undefeated against promotion contenders Sheff Wed and Notts County, while also defeated Charlton in Cup 3-0.

Brentford definitely shouldn’t be as high as 2.69, but considering decent amount of draws on both sides 0.0 handicap should be a reasonable limitation.

Bet: Brentford
Odd: 1.93 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 7/10
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Blue Square Bet Premier, Bath City - Mansfield Town

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Think it’s more than generous price here. City are stuck to the bottom with a single win out of 20 matches (have lost seven out of 10 at home). They played at Wednesday a Cup replay against Dag&Red and lost after extra time. Game had a great importance for them, they played with the best team and I doubt they have that big squad to rotate players for game today. Also, they’ve been storming on assistant referee in that game who made a crucial mistake and (allegedly) eliminated City from the Cup. So, team morale couldn’t be sky high (even read somewhere that home fans will trade the tickets with the visitors).

Mansfield, although playing below their pre-season expectations, haven’t been noticing so bad results lately. On the road, they’re undefeated in eight outings (4 wins, 4 draws). No big missings and both clubs have signed some players on loan (Bath two, Mansfield three).

In my numbers, Mansfield shouldn’t be above evens and as I mentioned price is worth of a shout. Away win.

Bet: Mansfield
Odd: 2.29 (Canbet)
Stake: 6/10
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Premier League Betting, Man Utd - Newcastle

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No need to talk too much about Man Utd’s home record. This season they have five wins out of six, in previous one 18 wins and only one draw. For the notice is fact the most of their home wins came after the lead at the ht (lost the exact number, but let’s say 70%). After conceding six in city derby, in next five matches they didn’t concede a single goal. Till Benfica, but with mixed defence. Only Anderson is out (till February). United haven’t lost against the Toon in last 18 matches (both home and away), winning 14 of them!

Newcastle are noticing a surprising (shocking if you like) start of the campaign. Their first defeat came in last round against Man City (where they maybe deserved more than 1-3 defeat) and currently occupy CL spot! However, all their rivals on the road were bottom-half sides.

I don’t really expect Newcastle will stay at the top too long and fancy United to win this one with the lead at the half time. Odds are decent.

Bet: Man Utd/Man Utd (ht/ft)
Odd: 2.00 (PaddyPower, Bwin)
Stake: 8/10
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Premier League betting, WBA - Tottenham

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West Brom haven’t been bad lately, four wins, four draws and two defeats out of last ten. But on the other hand, they scored only nine goals in those ten and lost every match against top sides (Man Utd, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool). Situation about Long and Odemwingie still isn’t clear, while second mentioned also started some public arguing with Hodgson. 

Spurs are flying high at the moment, they’ve noticed nine wins and a draw out of last ten and have scored two or more goals in each of last nine matches (averaging 17 shots per game this season)! Rafael van der Vaart is doubt for Redknapp who said the Dutch is out of contention (which forces me to believe he’ll start).

Anyway, I consider the worst scenario for my bet where WBA’s duo will play and Van der Vaart will not, but still find evens (or nearly below it) for away win as very appealing.

Bet: Tottenham
Odd: 2.00 (Interwetten)
Stake: 7/10
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League Two betting, Port Vale - Torquay

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Port Vale have three straight league defeats and adding two Cup games on that, they scored just once in last five matches. Also they won’t have fresh legs, as they played (and lost) mid week Cup game away at Grimsby.

Torquay are in a great run with four straight league wins (five, including Cup). Opponents in those weren’t sides from the top, but my impression is they’re simply too high and worth a punt.

Bet: Torquay 0.0
Odd: 2.18 (Canbet)
Stake: 7/10
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Championship betting, Birmingham - Peterborough

Brum lost at Reading and ended their run of nine unbeaten games. However, they should be strong promotion contenders (have three games in hand). At home are undefeated (4W, 2D) and have conceded only once. Big thing for them is no Europa League game on the sight and could be focused only on this tier.

The Posh have been scoring and conceding for fun, lately. Their defence is the weakest in Championship (29 conceded goals in 16 games), and they’re the only club in the division without a clean sheet. Some important players are returning to the squad, but I think Posh won’t be able to cope with Brum’s rock solid defence and to score as much as they concede.

Expect one nice and smooth home win.

Bet: Birmingham -0.75
Odd: 2.02 (Bet365)
Stake: 7/10
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