Premier League betting, WBA - Swansea

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This is the match between horrible hosts and terrible visitors. Only Wigan have taken fewer points at home than WBA (seven and eight) and no one worse than Swans with six points out of eleven games on the road! In such constellation, both sides must fancy their chances. And both sides are far enough from relegation zone to be nervous and to have too conservative approach. WBA’s four of last five games (including Cup) ended with at least three goals, Swansea’s three out five. Swans also have conceded at least two goals in four of those five.

Feel the odds for goals are a bit higher than they should be. However, take some covering if they settle for 1-1 draw.

Bet: Over 2.25
Odd: 1.97 (Canbet)
Stake: 8/10
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Premier League betting, WBA - Tottenham

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West Brom haven’t been bad lately, four wins, four draws and two defeats out of last ten. But on the other hand, they scored only nine goals in those ten and lost every match against top sides (Man Utd, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool). Situation about Long and Odemwingie still isn’t clear, while second mentioned also started some public arguing with Hodgson. 

Spurs are flying high at the moment, they’ve noticed nine wins and a draw out of last ten and have scored two or more goals in each of last nine matches (averaging 17 shots per game this season)! Rafael van der Vaart is doubt for Redknapp who said the Dutch is out of contention (which forces me to believe he’ll start).

Anyway, I consider the worst scenario for my bet where WBA’s duo will play and Van der Vaart will not, but still find evens (or nearly below it) for away win as very appealing.

Bet: Tottenham
Odd: 2.00 (Interwetten)
Stake: 7/10
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Premier League betting, WBA - Man Utd

First thought about this one was an away win. West Brom have lost last seven home games against Utd, run from 1984. Man Utd already got pretty big confidence with a Community Shield win. Rooney, Young and Nani looked very dangerous. But on the other hand, same United noticed just five away wins whole last season. With Roy Hodgson, The Baggies play with some confidence, especially at The Hawthorns. Smaller pitch dimensions don’t fit well to bigger clubs, their passing game and domination. Shane Long will have his debut, partner in attack will be, last season excellent Peter Odemwingie. Few players on both sides are doubtful.

Think WBA will be able to make a serious threat and score at least once. Last seven games between these rivals ended with three or more goals. Over for me.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.85 188bet
Stake: 7/10 
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WBA - Arsenal

West Brom look much better under Roy Hodgson, they’re undefeated in last four in league and in previous round won in derby away vs. Brum (3-1). But, the fact is they haven’t kept a clean sheet in previous 27 games. On the other hand, from the bottom-half sides only Blackpool have scored more goals (WBA 39). Key midfielder Dorrans is out, other midfielder Mulumbu is doubtful, while Vela cannot play against parent club.

Arsenal suffered two painful defeats in last 10 days (Barca and Man Utd), but they still look good in the title race. Three points less than Utd, but with a game in hand (counting on Utd’s injuries and tough game vs. Bolton today). Arsenal have good record on the road against bottom sides, but Wenger is facing a long injury list. Seven players are out, Fabregas, Djourou, Diaby, Vermaelen, Szczesny, Walcott and Song. Jens Lehmann is in the squad which makes me think they will be vulnerable more than usual. Good news for Wenger is Bendtner returns.

The Gunners are desperate for points, but absolutely the same is with WBA. I expect an open game and goals on both sides.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.93 Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10
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Birmingham - WBA (12:45 GMT)

The Brummies did lift the trophy, but this game is returning to the cruel Premier reality. They’re two points above the relegation line, this is six-pointer and I’m pretty sure they won’t suffer from a Cup hangover. Despite their bad position on the table, Birmingham have lost just three of their last 29 Premier games at St Andrew's. Barry Ferguson and Craig Gardner got some injuries in the Cup final and are in doubt for today’s clash.

West Brom are going to West Midlands derby after four draws of last five games (three in the row) and five away defeats of six matches. Hodgson added some stability to a horrible defence line, but they became a less dangerous in front as well (excluding Vela, of course). They have made a record with 26 Premier games without a clean sheet (three of them with Hodgson), but Hodgson as Premier League manager won just one of his last 28 away matches. Key man in the midfield, Graham Dorrans, suffered an ankle injury in training on Friday and is a major doubt.

The host will have a sky-high confidence, great support from the stands and they’re probably better team. WBA are pretty poor travellers, they avoided defeats in last two games coming to the point in last minutes and their luck should be spent. Home win (with some limitation regarding the draw). 1-0 correct score.

Bet: Birmingham -0.25
Odd: 2.21 188bet
Stake: 7/10
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Stoke- WBA

Stoke have lost four of last five games in Premier, but at home have three wins in a row (Everton, Bolton and Sunderland), scoring seven goals in those. Although being far from a John Carew fan, I think he’s fitting very well in Pulis’ style of play. Matthew Etherington is in doubt for the game. Stoke have won seven of last eight games against West Brom (both at home and away).

The Baggies are a point above the bottom, have lost last five on the road and conceded total of 52 goals. Roy Hodgson took the charge and they avoided defeats in last two league games, draws at home vs. West Ham and Wolves. However, I think he won’t be able to make a fast impact to the squad. His football philosophy is defence while most of the players are attacking minded (Di Matteo’s legacy). In such occasions (the last was Sousa, Swansea to Leicester), teams don’t defend better at first period just stop scoring goals. And yes, West Brom haven’t defeat Stoke on the road in past 29 years (never on Britannia).

Etherington is key player for Pulis and I wanted to hear some news about his condition. If he’s ready to play their chances will be significantly bigger, but in that case odds would significantly drop. So, I’ll exclude him from my consideration and am going to take Stoke as they simply should be too much for West Brom.

Bet: Stoke -0.5
Odd: 1.93 Bet365
Stake: 7/10
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WBA - Wigan

Six pointer. Still 15 rounds left, but who lose tonight will pave the road to Championship. The Baggies have a single win and six defeats in last seven league games (one and seven including Cup). They brought Carlos Vela from Arsenal (I’m not really sure how they can pay his wages) and improve the front line. But, real problem is defence. WBA have the worst defensive record in Premier (43 goals conceded), they haven’t kept a clean sheet in last 21 occasions and have conceded two or more in last seven!

The Latics won only once of their last eleven league games (with five draws and five defeats). Martinez will be without defender Alcaraz and Man Utd’s midfielder Cleverley. But, key players were rested in Cup and Al Habsi, Rodallega and N'Zogbia will start the game. Wigan usually play defensive football and they’re worst scorers in league (20 goals in 19 games), but I don’t think they’ll just sit back tonight. WBA’s defence is terrible and I think Martinez fancies their chances to score. Also, not sure they would accept only a point.

WBA and Wigan have never produced a goalless draw (15 games) and I don’t think they’ll be playing “not to lose game”. Both sides would hardly find a better opportunity for three points and I will go for goals here.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.88 bet365
Stake: 7/10

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Results, statistic and New Year

Best wishes, lads!

WBA- Blackburn 1-3 LOST
Norwich - Sheff Utd 4-2 WON

Updated statistic and list of bets.

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Promised previews

So, here’re brief analyzes.

WBA - Blackburn

The hosts are probably the most underrated side in Premier. They don’t play bad at all, at Bolton created plenty of chances to score. Brunt hit the post at 0-1 and they lost at the end. Bad news is (only one bad)  mentioned Brunt is suspended due to fifth booking.

Hard times for Blackburn, thankfully to Indian owners. Allardyce’s departure was a big shock to the players and they responded badly with one point from two home games. Even with him, their away record was very bad. Best defender Samba said he wants to leave the club and Steve Kean has removed him from the squad! Maybe it’s too early for big conclusions, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Rovers relegated at the end. 

Home win.

Norwich – Sheff Utd

Norwich are a decent side, especially at home and important for this game is they didn’t play for a Boxing Day. Only defeat in last eight games was at home vs. Pompey that media called a robbery. Defender Leon Barnett is suspended, while right back Russel Martin and midfielder Wes Hoolahan are in doubt. Norwich also have very good record against United at home as they won in six of last seven games (five with a goal margin).

United not just played a game two days ago, but also suffered a shocking home defeat against Hull (conceded in additional time). I am not sure how they can recover physically and mentally. Besides that, Blades already lost every credibility as play-off contender and I can’t see them higher than middle of the table. 

Another home win.

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WBA - Blackburn

Early pick as the odds are in a serious drop.
I will write few words tomorrow. And probably one more game.

Bet: WBA -0.5
Odd: 1.92 Betsson
Stake: 7/10

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Weekend's results

My betting weekend in one sentence. Barnsley and Chelsea were extremely unlucky to not book the three points, Berbatov went insane, Norwich were great, Everton disgusting.

Barnsley - Watford 0-0  1/2 LOST
Man Utd - Blackburn 7-1 WON
Everton - WBA 1-4 LOST
Norwich - Ipswich 4-1 WON
.....................................................Newcastle - Chelsea 1-1 LOST

Updated statistic and list of bets.
Still deep in red.

Maybe one bet, little later.

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Everton - WBA

Everton continue with annoying results in Premier. They’re without win in last four (three draws), have just two home wins of seven and sitting on very low for them 14th place. However, their performances look much better than results and I’m sure it’s a matter of time when they’ll start with the climbing on the table. The biggest problem recently is the lack of attacking support for Tim Cahill (scored five goals in his last eight games). Arteta and Pienaar work fine delivering from midfield, but Everton miss efficiency of the strikers. This should be a nice chance for Saha, Beckford and recovered Anichebe to recover the old shape. Moyes will miss only Fellaini who serves the last game of his suspension.

The Baggies are in free fall recently and currently I can’t see anything that could stop it. Four defeats and a draw in last five encounters caused they slipped from the 4th place (if my memory is right) to more expected 16th. They’ve kept only one clean sheet so far allowing at least two goals in four of their five previous games. Considering team quality, they’re probably worst in Premier (alongside Blackpool). First season syndrome and probably great motivation skills by Di Matteo caused an excellent run of results. Now WBA will hardly find something to boost their morale and they’ll face a hard fight for avoiding relegation. Their key man, Chris Brunt, is probably out with a groin problem. Morrison and Reid are also doubts for the game.

Despite Everton’s latest results, they should be superior here and this is a very nice opportunity for the start of a good run. Goodison is always a tough place to go. Home win for me.

Bet: Everton -1ah
Odd: 2.00 Bet365
Stake: 7/10

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Weekend and statistic update

Fourth time I wished to bet on City's game this season and noticed fourth loss! Really great...

Bristol City - Preston 1-1  1/2 LOSS
Watford - Nottingham Forest 1-1  DRAW
Plymouth - Swindon 0-4  WON
WBA - Man City 0-2  LOSS

Statistic:

November
Profit: -5.6 units Yield: -14.36%

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Season
Profit: -33.46 units Yield: -8.25%

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Monday's result and statistic update

I have an impression every game that I'm involved in has to produce some shocks. Two red cards in the first 30 minutes?! At least, bet is void not lost. All credits to WBA, didn't give up with nine players.

Statistic remains the same.

Blackpool - WBA 2-1 DRAW

Higlights

(In my opinion, WBA were robbed for both red cards.) 

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Blackpool – WBA

Despite they’re the poorest side in Premier and were tipped to be stuck for the bottom at the end of the season without too much points on the balance, Blackpool have noticed a decent start in the top crew. They have combat spirit and don’t respect anyone. They attacked Liverpool at Enfield and won (maybe never worse, but still it’s Liverpool), but on the other hand they have probably worst defense in  Premier. They simply can’t hold the things tight, if they don’t score will concede soon. Just on Man Utd’s games were seen more goals, they went over 2.5 in 7 of their 9 league games (two were 2-0) and all of their last 4 mutual games. Skipper and key player, Charlie Adam, is in a doubt for the game.

If the Seasiders are noticing a decent start, WBA are doing a dream one. They have 15 points and sounds unreal they’re two points far from Champions League! The characteristic that also applies to them is they’re playing without too much respect. The Baggies defeated Man City, Arsenal away, came from two behind at Old Trafford and don’t have a single defeat in last 8 competitive games! Striker Odemwingie and midfielder Morrison are in doubt, while duo Marc-Antoine Fortune and Jonas Olsson are back in contention. WBA have won their last four league games against Blackpool, scoring a total of 11 goals.

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I’m sure both sides fancy their chances tonight. Blackpool want to turn the corner (if that is possible however) after four defeats in last five games. WBA are on fire and will try to keep their recent run. Both sides carry an attacking style of play, won’t show too much respect (as usual) and I don’t think there’s a chance to cancel each other and play a boring game. Goals are very likely.

Bet: Over 3.0
Odd: 2.26 Canbet
Stake: 8/10

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Van der Sar and statistic update

At the same minute Van der Sar decided to make a joke and Robert Koren made a first attempt on goal for Hull (from 30 yards). Unfortunately both situations ended with goals and something that should have been entertaining Saturday and money collecting turned into a serious disaster. Only light in the dark was Wednesday that played a game just as I expected and made a job done. I don't celebrate too much when win and don't moan when lose, but disturbing thing is entire list of results looks really shocking and it lasts for the couple weeks. However, better days are coming. Thanks for visiting and sorry for a bad run.


Manchester United - WBA  2-2  LOSS
Leicester - Hull  1-1  LOSS
Yeovil - Sheffield Wednesday  0-2 WON

Statistic:

October
Profit: -18.36 units Yield: -28.25%

Season
Profit: +1.82 units Yield: +0.61%

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Manchester United - WBA

After just 7 rounds, United are already in position to chase rivals for the top and gap looks pretty decent (5 points from Chelsea). Current, third position is a result of away games where Devils all four finished with a draw. Second reason is shocking performances from Wayne Rooney who thankfully to happenings outside the pitch can’t back on the track. However, this is a nice opportunity for him to return some self confidence and score one-two times. United won 11 and drew 1 of last 12 games against WBA. They have 13 wins of last 14 home games and 11 of those 13 were with 2 or more goals margin. Only defeat was suffered from Chelsea and both wins by 1 came against Liverpool. Opponents like WBA are in the group of routine games. Despite recent talks, Hargreaves won’t make his comeback today and only doubtful is Giggs.

The Baggies have been noticing their best start in Premier (considering their previous appearances, that is not too much). However, 6^th place on the table (!), their home performances (no defeat in  four games) and excellent away win at Emirates call on caution. Di Matteo’s team carries a nice passing football and don’t hesitate to use any sign of disrespect. Like they did against Arsenal. On the other hand, that attitude can bring them a trouble, like it was at Stamford (0-6). As they didn’t care about that defeat (won vs. Sunderland 1-0 in the next game), I think they won’t about the game like Man Utd away is. Regardless of the today’s result, they will stay focused on home games and direct rivals from the bottom. WBA could be without striker Odemwingie and midfielder Jerome Thomas who are in doubt.

Odds here are a little bit higher than usual. International brake couldn’t make a serious problem as it’s removed for Tuesday. Champions League game is at next Wednesday, but I don’t see Bursa as a kind of opponent for who Sir Alex will dramatically change the squad in Premier. Five points less than Chelsea should be valid reason for maximum seriousness at Old Trafford and I expect another convincing win. 3-0 correct score.

Bet: Man Utd -1.75
Odd: 2.03 Expekt
Stake: 8/10

Gamble: Correct score 3-0
Odd: 7.50 888sports
Stake: 1/10  

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Sunday's result and statistic update

Something is very disturbing in Liverpool's play. Disappointing. 

They were robbed for an obvious penalty, but probably didn't deserve it.

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Liverpool - WBA  1-0  1/2 LOSS

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Statistic:

Profit: 25.36

Yield: +22.15%

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Crystal Palace 1-1 West Brom

West Brom denied Crystal Palace the chance of securing their Championship status, handing relegation rivals Sheffield Wednesday a reprieve.
Palace, who need a buyer by the end of the season, went ahead when Steven Reid sliced a free-kick into his own net. 
But the Baggies drew level inside four minutes when Gabriel Tamas headed home a Chris Brunt left-wing free-kick. 
Palace, who had Neil Danns sent off for a headbutt, now face a relegation showdown at Wednesday on Sunday. 
With the Owls having lost 3-2 at Cardiff on Saturday, Palace knew three points against West Brom on Monday would have been enough for them to avoid relegation to League One. 
But the south Londoners failed to take their chance, meaning that a season to forget - during which they have been docked 10 points as a result of falling into administration and lost manager Neil Warnock to Queens Park Rangers - will be decided by a visit to Hillsborough. 
Bon Jovi's Living on a Prayer echoed round Selhurst Park before kick-off but during an engrossing game the home side's players fought tooth and nail to be the masters of their own fate. 
They gave themselves the perfect start when Darren Ambrose's well-placed right-wing free-kick was sliced past his own keeper by Reid from six yards. 
But Paul Hart's men were pegged back four minutes later when Tamas headed the visitors level.
However, in the last 10 minutes the Eagles twice had chances to make sure of the points only for substitute Stern John to head wide at the back post before, six minutes into injury time, Marek Cech cleared an Ambrose effort off the line. 
That Palace were even in a position to potentially snatch a winner late on was a testimony to both the wastefulness of the dominant visitors and the superb performance from home keeper Julian Speroni. 
The Argentine stopper produced a string of saves to deny the Baggies, most notably to keep out Chris Brunt from close range, tip over a dipping 35-yard effort from Graham Dorrans in the first half and block well-struck efforts from Cech and Youssouf Mulumbu in the second. 
In addition, West Brom striker Roman Bednar missed a number of good opportunities, heading a Dorrans cross against the bar and then shooting harmlessly wide after being released by the same player. 
After Danns was shown a straight red by referee Dean Whitestone for headbutting Dorrans it seemed certain that West Brom would make their numerical advantage count. 
But they were unable to do so, and Palace's own late profilgacy in front of goal means they face a long, nervous final game of the season in Sheffield. 
As long as Hart's men, who have a two-point advantage over Wednesday, avoid defeat they will beat the drop, sending the Owls down.
www.bbc.co.uk

Crystal Palace – WBA

Well, I won’t suggest anyone to follow this bet. The thing is I really like to gamble and taking this one is much more tempting for me than trying to find a treble in Scandinavia at Monday. And I’m still a little bit annoyed because didn’t have guts to take Hereford at Saturday. However…

Palace have two games to play. In the last round will face direct opponent Sheffield Wednesday on the road. So, a win tonight would leave them in Championship. In last 9 home games have 2 wins and 7 defeats. Strikers Alan Lee and Calvin Andrews are back in contention after injury, left-back Lee Hills is out. Palace are unbeaten in the club's last four matches against West Brom. 

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The Baggies are second away team in the leagues (a point less than Newcastle) and are undefeated in last ten league games (2 draws, 8 wins)! The problem is they’re theoretically second and their motivation could be a cause of problems tonight. Few reasons for professional attitude. Di Matteo said he’ll field his strongest available team (not a single reason to believe him though). First game in the season they lost at home 0-1, Palace scored from only chance. They would like to reach Leicester’s record of 92 points (have 89 now) from 2003. The last but not the least, this is Championship not Serie A. Well, reasons are not so strong, but made this odd acceptable in my opinion. Jerome Thomas won’t play and I couldn’t find anyone else who is 100% out. 

Palace desperately need a win which means will be very, very nervous from the start. Most of their goals come after shots from distance and set pieces (mentioned Lee is an ox in front and crucial man for this strategy). Which against WBA’s top defense could make a real frustration instead nervous. I think they won’t score tonight. One conceded goal would push them forward and open them too much. I'll take WBA -1 ah at 5.00, bookie is bet365! Correct result is 0-2.

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P.s.: Yeah, yesterday's double was very easy. Bah...

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