Sounds shocking, but Finland has never qualified for European, or World Championship. In some previous campaigns, they were putting a solid displays, but always needed a point, or two. On the road to South Africa, they hold a third place in group 4, with two points less than the next opponent – Russia and six less from the leaders – Germany. They’re undefeated at home, two wins (Azerbaijan 1-0 and Liechtenstein 2-1) and a draw (Germany 3-3). Saturday’s game against Lilliputian showed their weaknesses. Finland hardly won, scored twice and turned the result. They look like out of shape. Play is without any idea and win came as result of pure experience. Also, some very important players, Petri Pasanen, Teemu Tainio and Shefki Kuqi, got injuries. National coach Stuart Baxter hides the cards, but it is expected Kuqi won’t play. It means Mikael Forssell and veteran Jari Litmanen will make the attack duo. With three points, Finland would skip Russia on the table.
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After he finished with a style his mission in Chelsea, Hiddink is back to Russia. They’re at second place with four points less (and a game less) than Germany. After 1-2 defeat in Germany, Russia made three consecutive wins, without a conceded goal (Finland 3-0, Azerbaijan 2-0, Liechtenstein 1-0). Young play-maker Alan Dzagoev won’t play, Pavel Pogrebnyak is in doubt, while Aldonin, Kerzhakov and Bystrov are returning after one game break. Guus Hiddink made some comments to Finnish media, pointing to the fact that Russia might settle for a draw. In that case will be at three points distance from Germany and will face them in Moscow. I think he was more polite and tactical, then serious. Holding a draw in Helsinki, when home side has Forssell (excellent head play) and Litmanen (maybe old, but still free-kick specialist) can turn the game into nightmare and dropping on third place. I can’t imagine Russia to loose here and can’t imagine they won’t qualify for WC. Expect from them to secure the goal first and in the second half to go for victory.
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The bookmakers offer low 1.80 for an away win, pointing Finland’s game vs Liechtenstein, but forgetting, at the same time, the game against Germany who avoided the defeat just thankfully to Klose. However, I think Russia simply has much more quality and Baxter can’t surprise Hiddink. Despite the lower odds (1.80 at Expekt) I go on away win. And a gamble x-2, ht/ft.
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My second bet will be Netherlands-Norway, over. And still think about Ecuador against Argentina. Maybe one more analyze, later.
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