Champions League 31. March

Arsenal – Barcelona, Arsenal corner handicap (-0.5) @ 2.00, Expekt

If it is any other top English club, I would take offered odd with a big smile. But Arsenal… At this moment it looks Barca is everything that Gunners want to be. And I really can’t predict final result. I can imagine 1-1 or 2-1, but will leave it.
I see Arsenal as a side which will have bigger possession and good pace. Partially because Barca’s tactic on away games in Europe (6 draws and 3 wins in last 9). They’ll sit back and wait some stupitidy by Almunia or Campbell most likely, or simply a chance for good counter attack. Guardiola would be satisfied with a scoring draw. Wenger would not. And Arsenal will have the advantage after set pieces, I guess Wenger knows it.

Inter – CSKA, over 2.5 @ 2.05, Stan James

1.40 for a home win is a rubbish in my opinion. Handicap, too risky. Mourinho will have same players that knocked Chelsea. They’re big favorites no doubt and they’re surely capable of scoring few tonight. On the other hand, CSKA like to play counter attacks, sometimes look very dangerous and can score. I think their chance is tonight, not in re-match. Like the odds for goals. Over 2.5.

Nice little double for me. (Those are best current odds for both bets,bet365 offer 1.95 for both.)

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Barcelona – Manchester United

The final game is in front. Barca, formally host, had an excellent season in Spain, wining both titles, league and cup. Their superiority was visible in Madrid where they humiliated an arch rivals, scoring six times! Fans were suspicious when Frank Riijkard was substituted with a coach of younger selections at the club. But, Guardiola got rid of Deco and Ronaldinho (biggest stars from previous season) and made a squad younger. Attacking performance (scored 30 goals in 12 CL games, btw.) deserved admiration of whole football Europe. Wining an European title would be a crown of excellent season. But, won’t be easy. First reason is the opponent. Since beating Arsenal in the 2006 Champions League final, they have played eight European matches against English opposition and won just once. Big problem is when someone cut their passing play. Whatever Spanish side says, admitting, or not, they were outplayed in semi-final. If referee allows tough game from the start with many fouls and challenges, they’ll be in a big trouble. Eto’o, Messi and Henry can’t get a ball, midfield already has a player less (formation 4-3-3) and defense is fighting against the storm. Here we come to the second big problem. Three very important players won’t play. Abidal and Dani Alves are suspended, while Marquez and Milito are injured. It means Puyol and Silvinho will be on the sides, Toure and Pique as the center backs. But, that’s not all, Henry and Iniesta have injury problems. They’re expected to play, but the question is, are they fully fit. 


United take on Barcelona on with the aim of becoming the first team to defend the Champions League title and to join the clubs who did it in the previous format of competition (1956-60 Real Madrid, 1961-62 Benfica, 1964-65 Inter Milan, 1971-73 Ajax, 1974-76 Bayern, 1977-78 Liverpool, 1979-80 Nottingham Forest FC). Sir Alex Ferguson and lads are superior in England, wining the Premier League again and easily. There are some opinions this team is the best in United’s history. In the previous CL round, they passed Porto and humiliated Arsenal. Tonight, their opponent will be much harder, one of the best European teams. Sir Alex knows what is the weakest link in Barca’s machine and will try to use their wounded defense line. He has no worries about missings, just suspended Fletcher (will be substituted by Park more likely than Anderson). But, the real secret is condition of Rio Ferdinand’s injury. He says he is “fine”, but he has been out for three weeks with a calf injury. If he’s not fully fit, there will be two possible problems. First, half-injured Rio will have a task to stop the best strikers in Europe. Second, if Jonny Evans will substitute him (in this case, over is very possible). It is very important for them what criteria referee will establish from the start. Will he allow tough challenges, or will cut the play for easy touching. 

I give a clear advantage to United. My reasons are nearly similar like in semi-final. 1.English style of play against Spanish, 2. Ferguson against Guardiola, 3. Barca's defense. Simply, Man.Utd. is stronger. But, at the same time, two reasons for limiting the stake. First, won’t say a big wisdom, but this is final and everything is possible, as always. Second, again unknown referee. Ovrebo didn’t see Pique handed the ball from two meters distance. Won’t write about the things outside the football, but really hope Swiss Massimo Busacca will be on the game level. Expekt offers 2.70. United to win and Rooney to score.  

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Barcelona - Osasuna

I’m little confused with these odds for Barca. So, bookies predict:1. Barca doesn’t need points, Osasuna does, 2. Barca will travel to Rome for the most important game this season and 2a will play with a reserve team, 2b will think about United instead Osasuna, 3. Barca is in bad shape in Primera and has no reason to improve it now. My prediction is different, but let’s start in the order. In the previous week, Barca won two titles, Primera and cup. In league they have two games without a win. First Villarreal equalized in the last minute of additional time, for 3-3 at Camp Nou. Then, after the cup final, lads traveled to island, to face Mallorca. Guardiola gave a chance to some youngsters and hosts won 2-1. Tonight will be more about the pride, than about points. This is the last game in front their fans and they won’t allow to bad performance and negative result put the shadow on entire season. And I really don’t think (does anybody?) that Barca will play with the name, let the visitors to take a point or three and start the rumors about the setting the game up! Can’t imagine. Guardiola will send the best eleven on the pitch. Some of the magicians missed Mallorca and another missing game would mean possible drop in shape. Additional thing, in the run for the best goal scorer, Samuel Eto’o has just one goal more than Forlan, will try to add more goals on his account.

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Before a month and a half, Osasuna made a magnificent display against Atletico Madrid, on the road, trashing them 4-2! Seven days later, Athletic Bilbao was beaten at home ground 2-1 and then nobody could see the dark clouds. But, after that, Osasuna made a run of six games without a win, four defeats and two goalless draws (last one was hardly fought against Sevilla at home 0-0, in the previous round), founding themselves at 17th place with the same number of points like “first under the line” Real Sporting (and two more than Numancia). Sporting will face safe Valladolid on the road and in the last round will host hopeless Recreativo Huelva. Meanwhile, Osasuna will visit Barca and host Real Madrid! So, I guess, they need at least three points! Everybody in Pamplona is wondering how this is happened. From my point of view, I don’t care, they deserve to relegate and don’t feel sorry for them. They won Atletico, scoring four goals in Madrid, but defeated against (in order) Almeria, Malaga, Recreativo Huelva and Getafe, after that. Now, Camacho has two choices, to attack at Camp Nou (kamikaze tactic), or to defend and try to keep the net. Chelsea did it, why Osasuna can not?! Exactly. Nice trip to Secunda.

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Again Real in Madrid, Guardiola didn’t rest anybody, despite Chelsea was on the corner. These two games are not on the same level, but I expect from him to do the same thing. Anyway, even the reserve team would be capable to beat Osasuna with two goals difference. Full crowds will wish a nice trip to lads and a good luck against United. For me, anything other than home win with two or more goals difference would be a first class surprise. Best odd offers Expekt, 2.05. As one friend of mine says: "Hit 'em where it hurts!". Home win.

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Chelsea - Barcelona

Just two more games in Champions League, this season. From the beginning Man.Utd. and Barca are the biggest favorites, already seen in Rome. United submited their superiority, easily wining on Emirates, tonight audience expect same from Barca. I'll try to explain why I think it won't happen. So...

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Chelsea didn't have a good rating to conquer CL in Scolari era, but when Hiddink took a charge, everything changed, players are full of self-confidence, play tactically perfect, even returning in race for title in Premier. Chelsea made a very good result at Camp Nou. They played tough, ruining Barca's style of play with a lots of tackles and fouls, waiting for their chance. Home side was furious on referee who allowed Chelsea to play like that and they're surely not happy with decision to Norwegian referee Tom Henning Øvrebø will be in charge tonight. I think Chelsea will play the same, will not attack too much and risk to concede from counter-attack. Stamford Bridge is a little smaller pitch, another advantage for home side. In the previous meeting, Mourinho got an idea, even to make a pitch wet, to make harder for Barca. :) Chelsea will wait for some free, or corner kicks when their players are physically superior. Some injury problems. Carvalho is out (plus, I think), but the problem can be potentially missing of Alex. Ashley Cole is back and will go on left side, while Bosingva take the right. Maybe Ivanovic will go at his nature position of centre back. Chelsea haven't lost their last 17 European games on Stamford.

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Barca came in London in a good mood, after they trashed Real on Bernabeu. But, it happens when You leave enough space to Barca's magicians. They accept the ball on 30 metres from opposite goal, then look around, make a dribble, pass, or some combination and that's the way how Barca likes to play. But the problem is English clubs who don't allow that. Guardiola talk about decadent football (???!!!). No, let them to make a fools from You. In the last four European seasons, Barca once won the competition, other three times was eliminated from English clubs.  They talk how they didn't have enough luck. What about Drogba's missing? Guardiola has two big problems. Puyol and Marques are out (long time injured Millito, too), Henry is in doubt. So Pique and young Caceres will try to stop Chelsea's attackers. Hm... 

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My reasons for Chelsea, in this order. 1.English style of play against Spanish, 2. Hiddink against Guardiola (Btw. I still can't figure it out why he changed Eto'o in the first game, instead injured Henry.), 3. Barca's defence, 4. Unreal odds for a home win. Enough for a bet. Pinnacle offers 2.87, Expekt 2.80. Home win!