Plymouth – Swindon

The Pilgrims are waking up in the League One. Two home wins in a row, against league giants Huddersfield (2-1) and in the midweek vs. Bristol Rovers (3-1). They’re creating plenty of goal chances lately and possess great attacking potential. Bradley Wright-Phillips is league top goal scorer, they have fast wing play and legendary striker Rory Fallon who is back after injury. However, defense with 25 conceded goals in 15 games looks far from being secure. Additional problem for the back line is missing of two players, defender Johnson and goalie Button. Midfielder Conor Clifford is Cup tied.

Swindon are just a shadow from a team from previous season and play-off ambitions look unrealistic at this moment. Team’s mascot and top goal scorer, Billy Painter, went to Leeds, but their major problem is (same as with Plymouth) too much conceded goals (27 in 15 games). Additional headache for boss Danny Wilson is he cannot count on three defenders. Frampton,  Jean-Francois  and Amankwaah are all out! Good news is winger, Matt Ritchie, got the permission from Portsmouth to play today. Wilson was storming out on older players, after midweek 0-3 home defeat against Charlton for lacking of effort and giving a bad example to the youngsters. There should be some positive reaction from them.

Two attacking minded sides with big problems in the defense lines. FA Cup (and money rewards) should be a nice motivation. I can give a small advantage to the home side, but see goals as a better option.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.80 bet365
Stake: 8/10

And probably one more pick, little later.

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Leicester City - Plymouth Argyle

Foxes started their returning season in Championship in a great manner and after some excellent results occupied high position. Leicester, however got two slaps from the direct opponents for the play-off zone. First, lost at their fortress – Walkers Stadium against Preston (1-2). Lads responded very well with the run of six games unbeaten, four wins and two draws. Then, in last round another shock. West Brom walked away with three points and again 1-2. In the days after the game, players were annoyed because the international brake that took them a chance to bounce back immediately. Good side is manager Nigel Pearson had enough time to stabilize the squad and focus them to pre-season target, play-off. Captain, Matt Oakley, misses the game as he is suspended after picking up five yellow cards, but his fellow midfielder Andy King returns in the squad after he recovered from an arm injury. 

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Plymouth made a run of three games without a defeat. Home draw against drowning Kean and Ipswich wasn’t unexpected, but making a nightmare from Strachan’s debut in Boro really was. 1-0 win at Riverside gave them the wings and lads defeated Doncaster (2-1) at home in next round. Manager Paul Sturrock is keen to stick with the formula that has provided two excellent wins, but his plans, however, may be disrupted by injury concerns over two of the heroes from those victories. Plymouth biggest strength are counter attacks through the flanks and excellent execution by Rory Fallon. Appearance of both wingers, Alan Judge and Craig Noone, will need to be assessed. I guess one will play. Also, Fallon scored the winning goal for his New Zealand and led them to WC. Long trip and lack of focus could reflect on his performance at Walkers. On-loan right-back, David Gray, will have a late fitness test, while captain Carl Fletcher is available again after serving a one-match ban.

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Foxes will be focused and very serious. This could be a key game for them. Failure would dedicate their fate to the middle of the table, while win would returned them to the way for play-off. Difference in quality is obvious, Walkers is one of the worst place for visiting and despite Leicester have six wins with a single goal margin, I expect a convincing win. So, home win (1.76 at Pinnacle) and handicap as a gamble. Correct score 2-0.

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Middlesbrough - Plymouth Argyle

Middlesbrough hold a place in the play-off zone (4^th) and made two good performances in last two rounds. First, won against Derby at home (2-0) which was a first positive result at Riverside after three defeats without a single goal scored (WBA 0-5. Leicester 0-1 and Watford 0-1). Then Southgate got fired and new man in charge, Gordon Strachan, watched from vip seat an away draw vs. Preston (2-2). Considering their ratio performances/points, in my opinion Boro lack in points and possess unused potential that especially reflected in home games (ten points from 21). Strachan declared the striking force as the main problem and already sign on two months loan deal striker Marcus Bent from Birmingham (ex Charlton). Two forwards, Caleb Folan and Jeremie Aliadiere, are injured and Bent goes straight into Boro’s starting eleven. All others are fit and available to the new boss. Debuts of the new managers always have a positive impact to the team morale and Strachan surely couldn’t wish a better opponent for it (maybe we can even talk about god timing of chairman Steve Gibson).

 

In opening 14 rounds and noticed 9 (from possible 42) points, Pilgrims haven’t shown anything that could keep them in the Championship. After seven consecutive defeats, team won twice (Peterborough and Scunthorpe), then again bad run with just one point in three games (bottom side, Keano’s Ipswich 1-1) and in my opinion it’s fair to say Plymouth simply don’t possess enough quality to resist against any decent club in Championship. Here are some facts about their previous effort. They are the only side not to have kept a single clean sheet this season, have picked up one point from their eight matches against top-half clubs and have conceded nine goals in the last 15 minutes of matches this season - more than any other club. Really can’t see any sign of potential improving. At Riverside, boss Paul Sturrock will have some additional problems, with missing players. Young defender Darcy Blake is suspended, while key striker Rory Fallon will face a fitness test. Also, Pilgrims could have a big problem at right back (Boro’s best scorer so far is winger Adam Johnson, btw.) as Gray and McNamee have ankle injuries.

 

Difference in quality is obvious, home ground and new manager who will make his debut on the bench will also be the big advantages. My opinion is only miracle could save Plymouth of a debacle at Riverside.  My suggestion is home handicap win. -1, -1.25, -1.5 choose which you like.

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I'll be on the road for the weekend. Maybe one more analyze for Sunday (Cardiff), maybe not. Cheers lads.

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