WBA - Wigan

Six pointer. Still 15 rounds left, but who lose tonight will pave the road to Championship. The Baggies have a single win and six defeats in last seven league games (one and seven including Cup). They brought Carlos Vela from Arsenal (I’m not really sure how they can pay his wages) and improve the front line. But, real problem is defence. WBA have the worst defensive record in Premier (43 goals conceded), they haven’t kept a clean sheet in last 21 occasions and have conceded two or more in last seven!

The Latics won only once of their last eleven league games (with five draws and five defeats). Martinez will be without defender Alcaraz and Man Utd’s midfielder Cleverley. But, key players were rested in Cup and Al Habsi, Rodallega and N'Zogbia will start the game. Wigan usually play defensive football and they’re worst scorers in league (20 goals in 19 games), but I don’t think they’ll just sit back tonight. WBA’s defence is terrible and I think Martinez fancies their chances to score. Also, not sure they would accept only a point.

WBA and Wigan have never produced a goalless draw (15 games) and I don’t think they’ll be playing “not to lose game”. Both sides would hardly find a better opportunity for three points and I will go for goals here.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.88 bet365
Stake: 7/10

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Watford - Peterborough

Watford have noticed just one point of last four games and they’re now just two points far from relegation zone. Good thing is their performances at Vicarage Road are actually good. Their last two loses came from very strong sides. First, Newcastle took all three points (1-2), but the truth is they scored after only two serious treats. In the last round, Hornets were unlucky against Swansea (0-1), dominating most of the game, but conceded after big error of defense line. Even more encouraging than a home shape is return of midfielder Tom Cleverley (loaned from Man.Utd.) after 3 games suspension. Interesting is Watford lost all those 3 games and lost 5 out of 6 when Cleverley didn’t play. No injury concerns for boss Malky Mackay.

 

Peterborough are on bottom without a real chance to avoid relegation. While at home fighting spirit supported with disaster pitch has been bringing some results, their away shape is scandalous. Only four draws in 17 games and nine goals scored is the far worst record in Championship. The Posh have lost their last seven away games and failed to score in the last four of them. Manager Jim Gannon has been trying to motivate players to fight till the last game, but my impression is they all know they’re already relegated. Gannon can not count on midfielder Lee Frecklington and winger Chris Whelpdale.   

 

Watford’s home displays, return of Cleverley and Peterborough on the road are main reasons. I expect a home win with two-three goals margin.

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