FA Cup - 29.01.

Some interesting games in FA Cup. Post will be updating with new picks.

Burnley - Burton

Burnley are very strong home side (5th in Championship considering points at home) and probably they’ll be in chase for promotion (through play-off). New boss Eddie Howe, started to improve away record winning at Portsmouth (at the same beat terrible record against Pompey). This is first home game and he’ll probably try to keep the momentum.

Guys from Pirelli Stadium are fighting for their lives in League Two (58 places lower than Burnley) with probably the worst away record in English football (6 points of 9 games). They started to improve under new boss Peschisolido and in previous round shocked ‘Boro at home, but don’t think they’re even close to surprise here.

I’ll try with two bets. The Clarets are strong favourites in my opinion (despite it’s a Cup) and I expect at least two goals margin (with one, half stake is back). Other one is gamble in hoping players will continue to impress new boss. Pure instinct.  

Bet 1: Burnley -1.25
Odd: 1.74 Canbet
Stake: 8/10
 

Bet 2: Burnley -3ah
Odd: 5.75 bet365
Stake: 1/10
 

Watford - Brighton

Watford are the highest scorers in Championship with 52 goals(!) in 26 games and their last eight games (seven in league) went in over 2.5 (five were over 3.5). Last weekend’s defeat at Cardiff ended their run of seven consecutive wins (six in league)! Malky Mackay rotated players in previous round vs. Hartlepool and will probably do that again. Skipper Eustace is rated as doubtful and will probably be saved for the league.

Brighton are flying high in the League One and it seems they’re sure for direct promotion (six points more than 3rd Hudders and game in hand). They’re playing nice, passing game that usually produces goals. In 2011. (last six games), The Seagulls scored 15 times. They won five of the last six league and cup encounters, in previous round they eliminated Pompey and as Hornets they shouldn’t be lacking in confidence.

I guess both sides are hoping for progress. Wouldn’t dare to predict a winner, but I think we’ll be watching an entertaining game and goals on both sides.

Bet: Over 2.75
Odd: 2.04 188bet
Stake: 8/10

Support the blog and open a betting account using the banners from the left. You'll get some free bets as well.
Make e-mail subscription and get my picks directly in the mail box.
0

Watford - Nottingham Forest

Despite they were already seen in the relegation battle before the start, the Hornerts made some great results that launched them in the top half of the table. Young players, combat spirit, attacking style with excellent leadership by Malky Mackay are Watford this season. However, they started to losing their breath lately. First Scunny took all three points from Vicarage Road, then they get trashed at Derby in the last round (1-4). Striker Danny Graham, should be fit, but defender Hodson and winger Cowie are sidelined. Watford have won only two of their last 11 home games against Forest.

Forest (as any team under Billy Davies) are well known “slow starters”. Differently from previous seasons, after run of draws they noticed two defeats on the road Barnsley 1-3 and Portsmouth 1-2 (and two wins at home though). Good excuse could be missing of attacking duo Tyson  – Earsnshaw. Both were on the bench in the last round, Earnshaw will start today’s game. They were second rated favorite for winning the Championship, nothing has changed in their potential and I expect them to make a winning streak very soon. No injury concerns for Davies.

g

l
p
Watford had a surprising start which probably will make their mission easier to accomplish. But for me, they’re still relegation contender and expect their fall on the table. With Forest, situation is completely opposite. I cannot exclude a possibility of another draw, but see visitors as favorites here.

Bet: Nott Forest 0.0
Odd: 2.19 188bet
Stake: 7/10

Make e-mail subscription and get my picks directly in the mail box.
m

it's a nightmare - sorry to followers

Coventry 1 - 1 Plymouth

Michael McIndoe scored the equaliser as Coventry made it four games without defeat to continue their play-off push in the Championship.
The hosts had the better of the chances in the first half but went in trailing after Kari Arnason headed home Damien Johnson's free-kick before break. 
McIndoe wasted no time in drawing the home side level after the break when he coolly converted a Carl Baker pass. 
Sammy Clingan had a shot deflected wide as the hosts pressed for a winner. 
Plymouth had their first attack when Jamie Mackie drove the ball wide of the upright from the edge of the area. 
Keiren Westwood was then forced to make a fantastic save from Mackie after he drilled a strong drive towards the top corner. 
Clinton Morrison saw his shot from inside the area go harmlessly wide before a weak Clingan shot was watched wide by Plymouth goalkeeper David Stockdale. 
As the first half drew to a close Baker found himself free in the area but Plymouth's Yannick Bolaise made a last-ditch tackle to clear the ball behind for a corner. 
The Pilgrims took the lead with the final attack of the first half when Arnason glanced a header into the net from Johnson's free-kick. 
Sky Blues manager Chris Coleman made two changes at the break with Gary Deegan and Marcus Hall replacing Aron Gunnarsson and Stephen Wright. 
The changes spurred the hosts into life and after just four minutes of the second half Baker chipped the ball through for McIndoe to race onto and he slotted low into the bottom corner to level the scores. 
Coventry continued to push forward and Jon Stead almost gave them the lead with a turn and shot from the edge of the area. 
Plymouth substitute Gary Sawyer almost made an immediate impact with a long-range effort that drifted wide. 
In the closing stages Pilgrims midfielder Carl Fletcher had an effort blocked by Hall and a Chris Clark cross almost caught Westwood out.
Bolasie almost snatched the points in injury time but his volley was blocked en route to goal by Coventry's defence.

.

Watford 0 - 1 Peterborough

Relegation-threatened Peterborough saw off fellow strugglers Watford to claim their first away win of the season.
Brighton loanee Liam Dickinson sealed the points for the Posh with an audacious 35-yard lob over England Under-21 goalkeeper Scott Loach. 
Adrian Mariappa went close for Watford with a deflected shot, as did Danny Graham and substitute Will Hoskins. 
But the Hornets were fortunate not to concede a late second when Martin Taylor headed against his own crossbar. 
Victory gave Jim Gannon's side back-to-back wins for the first time this season. 
But a fourth successive defeat did Watford, who barely threatened before the break and were only roused once Peterborough had scored, no favours. 
And only the defiance of Loach, whose early double save denied Craig Mackail-Smith and Dickinson, and a stroke of luck, when Aaron Mclean hit the post from range, saved Watford from a heavier defeat. 
The goal came six minutes after the break when Loach, scrambling to clear with Mark Little advancing, saw the ball fall to Dickinson, who sent a calm finish over the stranded goalkeeper. 
Watford manager Malky Mackay: "We're down in that relegation area but we've got to make sure that between now and the end of the season we win as many games as possible.
"We were frustrated today, the players were frustrated but they were giving everything they had for the jersey today. 
"We've got to make sure that we stick together, which they are doing, and go out there and keep working hard on the pitch."
Peterborough manager Jim Gannon: "It's great for the fans and players because it's been a long time coming for them.
"With 11 or 12 games remaining we've got to double our points average. It's an incredible mountain for that group of players to achieve, especially if the squad's being depleted and you've got so many injuries. 
"All I'm asking them to do is go from game to game and do themselves justice and in the last two games they've certainly done that."

www.bbc.co.uk

Watford - Peterborough

Watford have noticed just one point of last four games and they’re now just two points far from relegation zone. Good thing is their performances at Vicarage Road are actually good. Their last two loses came from very strong sides. First, Newcastle took all three points (1-2), but the truth is they scored after only two serious treats. In the last round, Hornets were unlucky against Swansea (0-1), dominating most of the game, but conceded after big error of defense line. Even more encouraging than a home shape is return of midfielder Tom Cleverley (loaned from Man.Utd.) after 3 games suspension. Interesting is Watford lost all those 3 games and lost 5 out of 6 when Cleverley didn’t play. No injury concerns for boss Malky Mackay.

 

Peterborough are on bottom without a real chance to avoid relegation. While at home fighting spirit supported with disaster pitch has been bringing some results, their away shape is scandalous. Only four draws in 17 games and nine goals scored is the far worst record in Championship. The Posh have lost their last seven away games and failed to score in the last four of them. Manager Jim Gannon has been trying to motivate players to fight till the last game, but my impression is they all know they’re already relegated. Gannon can not count on midfielder Lee Frecklington and winger Chris Whelpdale.   

 

Watford’s home displays, return of Cleverley and Peterborough on the road are main reasons. I expect a home win with two-three goals margin.

.

Available free bets, bonus offers and promotions:
Expekt - First deposit bonus up to €35 / £25 for all new customers
Make your first deposit at expekt.com and we will immediately double your money up to max €35 / £25. Take these 3 easy steps to start profiting from sports betting: 1.Register an account with expekt.com here. 2.Deposit a minimum of €10 into your expekt.com account. 3.Send an email to 35eurbonus@expekt.com with your customer number and deposit amount included. The bonus amount up to €35/£25 will be added to your account within 48 h

Some thoughts

Preston should win tonight.In fact considering everything that I've read,there's not a single reason not to be.Except...Well,except my instict.And I rate it as,for example,missings of best scorer and goalie.It's obvious home win,but something simply doesn't fit.I haven't posted this earlier,'cause don't want to ruin someone's work (another top post neo!).Follow your own insticts.

My initial thoughts were to back Sheff.Utd..Hornets are awfull and that's it about them.Blades,in my opinion will finish in play-off.Injuries are past,but they have two very important missings for tonight.Key defenders,Kilgallon and Wallker.While Kilgallon's departure is also good thing for the club(again in my opinion),unexpected yesterday's departure of second one is a blow.Second thing,odds on Utd. have been raising fast.I doubt bookies know anything that I don't,but in combination with first reason it's enough to stay beside.

Well,not picks but thoughts.Maybe it could be useful for someone.

.

Available free bets, bonus offers and promotions:
Expekt - First deposit bonus up to €35 / £25 for all new customers
Make your first deposit at expekt.com and we will immediately double your money up to max €35 / £25. Take these 3 easy steps to start profiting from sports betting: 1.Register an account with expekt.com here. 2.Deposit a minimum of €10 into your expekt.com account. 3.Send an email to 35eurbonus@expekt.com with your customer number and deposit amount included. The bonus amount up to €35/£25 will be added to your account within 48 h

Watford - Derby County

Watford so far is the biggest surprise of the second tier. Considering players’ potential and financial problems they should be contenders for relegation. But their recent run of results and especially performances give the hope their shape could be continued. Hornets have four consecutive home wins and all of them were with two or three goals margin. Their pitch has been using for rugby games, along football and usually it’s very hard for visiting teams to adjust on it. Also, despite some defeats on the road Watford gave a decent resist in all of them. Midfielder Henri Lansbury, who missed Monday's win against QPR with a hip problem, faces a late fitness test, while skipper Jay DeMerit, who has had an eye injury, could be in the starting line-up for the first time since August.

Derby hold 17th place, four points far from relegation zone. Usually they collect points at their Pride Park, while on the road have noticed only three points from ten games! Away strategy is simple and includes defending with all players and trying to keep goalless draw. They haven’t scored in last five away games. Considering their recent shape and potential, I think they’re one of the clubs that will face a hard fight to stay in Championship. For today’s game also have some problems with injured players. Derby could be without Dean Leacock after the defender limped out of Tuesday's draw with Preston with a hamstring injury, while his fellow centre-back Shaun Barker is definitely out with a thigh problem.

My only worry is Watford already have made over-achievement and sooner or later will face a drop in the results. I think that will happen with first injury problems and think they’ll continue their good run. Pinnacle offer 1.95. Home win.

Available free bets, bonus offers and promotions:
Expekt - First deposit bonus up to €35 / £25 for all new customers
Make your first deposit at expekt.com and we will immediately double your money up to max €35 / £25. Take these 3 easy steps to start profiting from sports betting: 1.Register an account with expekt.com here. 2.Deposit a minimum of €10 into your expekt.com account. 3.Send an email to 35eurbonus@expekt.com with your customer number and deposit amount included. The bonus amount up to €35/£25 will be added to your account within 48 h

Watford - Leicester City

The Hornets made an impressive run of five league games without a defeat. Two draws against Blackpool (2-2 at home) and Swansea City (1-1 away), while they beat Nottingham Forest (4-2 away) and in last two round Barnsley at home and Plymouth Argyle on the road, 1-0 both. It seems the departure of some their key players (the biggest was their talisman and key striker Tommy Smith to Portsmouth) haven’t made any serious impact to team’s shape. Club’s board returned striker Heidar Helguson (who already was playing for the club 1999-05.) and brought three on-loan players from Premier League. Under the leadership of Malky Mackay (who btw. is living his debut in manager business) everything looks fine, so far. But, on the second view, it can be seen their mentioned run of good results have been made against the teams from bottom half of the table. And last two wins were against Barnsley and Plymouth, clubs that belong to group of main contenders for relegation. And the true is, Watford simply don’t have enough quality for top-half, especially their short bench is a problem in a long season like in Championship. So, I expect their drop sooner or later. Sooner more probably. However, mentioned Helguson and another loan, defender Craig Cathcart are included in the squad for the game. Skipper Jay DeMerit should also be available after missing the last two matches with a groin injury.

Leicester made an impressive start in their returning season in Championship and already announced a battle for a play-off spot. Only defeat in seven opening games came from the most expensive club in the league – Newcastle (0-1 on the road). Players gathered a large amount of self confidence, being absolutely dominant in League One last season and at start of recent campaign in second tier, and already managed to underestimate somebody. In previous round against Peterborough at Walkers, visitors were absolutely dominant in the first half and took a lead. Matty Fryatt equalized from penalty kick in second part, couple chances were created, but only 1-1 draw at the end. Pale display didn’t make serious impact to dressing room atmosphere and Foxes go to Vicarage Road, hunting down their first away win. I think their displays so far warranted another good game and their hope for good result against Hornets has a reliable coverage. Experienced defender Wayne Brown has a shoulder injury and will be assessed before the Foxes line-up is decided, while another defender, Bulgarian Aleksandar Tunchev, needed 10 stitches in a head wound but he is expected to be passed fit. The Foxes have won five and drawn three of their last nine games at Vicarage Road.

It seems Watford’s run of five unbeaten games impressed the bookmakers that offered more than decent odd against them. Watford have been playing over their real capabilities, haven’t faced any team from the league’s top (except Sheff.Utd., 0-2 defeat) so far and they’ll surely face a drop at the table very soon. On the other hand, Leicester are play-off favorites from the shadow and I expect very good games from them through the season and following Foxes with bets should bring a nice income. Away win today should be considered as a gamble. I suggested a safer option with covering a draw, but odds arround 2.05 for dnb 2 are still high.

Maybe one more shorter analyze later. Cheers.

Available free bets, bonus offers and promotions:
Expekt - First deposit bonus up to €35 / £25 for all new customers
Make your first deposit at expekt.com and we will immediately double your money up to max €35 / £25. Take these 3 easy steps to start profiting from sports betting: 1.Register an account with expekt.com here. 2.Deposit a minimum of €10 into your expekt.com account. 3.Send an email to 35eurbonus@expekt.com with your customer number and deposit amount included. The bonus amount up to €35/£25 will be added to your account within 48 h.

Leeds United - Watford

After another disappointment in play-off and missed opportunity for promotion (lost vs. Millwall in semi-final 0-1), Leeds remain as one of the biggest favorites for promotion. New start looks impressive, four games, three league wins and one in cup. Before the transfer market started, major concerns were can club keep their young stars Fabien Delph and Jermain Beckford. Delph left the club and signed for Aston Villa, but Beckford, scorer of 34 goals last season in all competition and four goals in recent one stayed. All in Leeds take every opportunity to point they don’t belong in the third tier, accept it as a shame and tonight will have a nice opportunity to show it on the pitch against the opponent who comes from the league where Leeds should be. Also, all in the club certainly remembers their last meeting with the Hornets in Championship play-off final (2006). Leeds were looking for immediate return to Premier, but lost totally unexpected 0-3 and seems then the things definitely go wrong for them. Next season, team relegated to League One and stayed till these days. They’ll be fully motivated and I expect the best available eleven on the pitch. Boss Simon Grayson will once again be without left-back Ben Parker, who has missed the last four games because of a hamstring injury, while centre-back Richard Naylor (back) remains a long-term absentee. Leeds have been knocked out in the second round just once in last 14 years.

New season brought the same problems for the lads from Vicarage Road. Excellent manager Brendan Rogers left the club to take a charge in Reading and his replacement is Malky Mackay. Team also lost a striker Tamas Priskin (15 goals last season), while star striker Tommy Smith looks likely to be on his way out from the club before the transfer window shuts. Club signed few new players, worth of mentioning are striker Danny Graham (from Carlisle United) and loan duo Henri Lansbury and Tom Cleverley from Arsenal and Manchester United. I think, in the best case, team is equal with that from the last season. Which means tough battle to save the status in the second tier. And start in Championship doesn’t look too promising, as Watford have won only one of their four league games so far. So, they have bigger worries (saturday’s clash against Swansea, for example) than progress in cup competition. Mackay will probably rest his keys and give a chance to some fringe players. Mentioned Lansbury and Cleverley will have a debut as they have been given permission to play in the competition by parent clubs. The Hornets will surely be without key midfielder Jobi McAnuff (back injury) and striker Nathan Ellington (knee). Watford were last knocked out by lower league opposition two years ago when League One Southend eliminated them in the second round, while they needed extra-time to see off Barnet in the first round this year.

Leeds like to play against strong opponents. For them, it is the way to show the superiority. And for this encounter will have revenge as the additional reason. Top of the third league against bottom of the second. I think Watford need something really special if want to resist at Elland and see Leeds as the favorites here. Pinnacle offer 2.14. Home win.

Available free bets, bonus offers and promotions:
"William Hill Exlusive £100 freebet, All Countries!!!" 1. Click here to open your account, Sign up("Join now") using promo code F100, 2. When you place your first bet, we will give you a free bet of the same value up to a max of £50, 3. As you place more bets you can earn up to another £50 in free bets. (Moneybookers available for this offer, You can choose Euro as a currency.)

Nottingham Forest - Watford

After the previous “rollercoaster campaign” which eventually resulted in Championship survival, club management decided to open a check book and re-built the squad which should be capable to involve into fight for a play-off. Boss Billy Davies brought even nine players in the club. Dexter Blackstock - QPR's top goal scorer last season, David McGoldrick - Southampton's top goal scorer last season, Dele Adebola another excellent striker, Chris Gunter – excellent Welsh defender and international, Paul McKenna - long time Preston captain and key midfielder in this Forest team, Lee Camp - good goalie and couple more. Forest started this season, it can be said, tragically unlucky. Opening game, against Reading at Madejski, passed in too cautious play by Forest and though they could get all three points (Reading had zero shoots on goal!), noticed just a goalless draw. At the second game, they hosted always strong WBA and were even more unfortunate. They were dominating side for the whole 90 minutes, missed a couple of very good chances, wasted a penalty kick and at the end lost by an own goal! Beside the bad luck, they’re fighting against big injury problems in defence line. Three regular defenders are injured, James Perch (shin), Julian Bennett (knee) and Kelvin Wilson (ankle), while fourth Luke Chambers is suspended! Winger McCleary is carrying a knock and he’s in a doubt. Nottingham Forest are seeking their first win and first goal of this league season and probably couldn’t get a better rival for that.

After very turbulent previous season which is ended in the middle (13th place), Hornets come into new campaign expecting a tough battle to avoid relegation. Excellent manager Brendan Rogers who was meritorious for pulling the club from the bottom, went to take a charge in Reading (got the job with a recommendation from Jose Mourinho). His replacement is Malky Mackay and that is his first managerial job. Club also lost key striker Tamas Priskin (15 goals scored last season) who signed for Ipswich. They still have a few well known and quality players, like goalie Scott Loach (England U-21 international), excellent defender and US international Jay DeMerit, striker Nathan Ellington, new signing from Carlisle United - striker Danny Graham, but it is obvious in the long run they simply don’t possess enough quality. Recent season started in their well known manner, with a home draw (1-1) against Doncaster Rovers and defeat on the road against Sheffield United (0-2). Midfielder Don Cowie has a hamstring injury and will require a late fitness test for tonight’s encounter. Additional problem for a team harmony is possibility of losing key forward Tommy Smith who is interesting for a number of clubs. Defeat at the City Ground would mean the Hornets only had one point after the first three games for the third time in five seasons and I haven’t found anything that could prove me they can get something from this game.

After two times where they were desperately unlucky, Forest will have a nice opportunity to finally start a good run of results against, I can say, weak Watford. Hosts have six top strikers and great midfield. Big problems in defence can only suggest on possibility of over 2.5 goals, but not on final winner. I’m confident in a home win and even a –1.5 handicap should be a nice bet. Pinnacle offer 1.86. Home win.
.
Available free bets, bonus offers and promotions:
"William Hill Exlusive £100 freebet, All Countries!!!" 1. Click here to open your account, Sign up("Join now") using promo code F100, 2. When you place your first bet, we will give you a free bet of the same value up to a max of £50, 3. As you place more bets you can earn up to another £50 in free bets. (Moneybookers available for this offer, You can choose Euro as a currency.)