Championship betting 21st Aug, Watford - Ipswich

Watford opened the campaign with an unimpressive away win at Palace. They were behind 1-2, but scored two goals in the closing minutes (Speroni wasn’t on his best, as well). Squad probably has potential for the top half of the table, but trouble is decent amount of new players and Zola certainly needs some time to put it all together.

Ipswich also made a decent start, stayed undefeated against ex-Premier Blackburn. And also survived in the last stage of the match, by own goal in 83th min. On their travels last season, they conceded 45 goals (biggest number in the league).

My impression is both attacks are best lines the teams and both sides will be in the good mood for the match and trying to take all three points. I will go for goals. And interesting thing is from their last 14 encounters, 8 of them and last four at this place ended with 2-1 to Watford. So...

Bet: Over 2.5

Odd: 1.88 (Pinnacle)

Stake: 7/10

Bet: Correct score 2-1

Odd: 9.00 (William Hill)

Stake: 1/10

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Championship betting 1 Nov

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Crystal Palace - Portsmouth

Palace are flying really high (they remind me on Newcastle in Premier) and are at shocking 3^rd place. They’re also undefeated in six league matches (four wins, two draws) and haven’t conceded in last four.

Pompey have a miserable record on the road with just two points of seven away games (including previous season, eleven games without a win) and have noticed five defeats in a row. They got smashed vs. Derby at Saturday, conceding three goals for a half of hour and despite Sean O'Driscoll is already seen as a new manager, I don’t expect any positive impact on the squad (yet).

It’s a very good price on Palace (everything above evens is a very good price, in my opinion), but some covering of a draw should be reasonable.

Bet: Crystal Palace -0.25
Odd: 2.00 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 7/10

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Watford - Brighton

The Hornets defeated Peterborough at Sunday and ended a run of four straight defeats (all four against top-half sides though). However it was fifth win in 18 competitive games at home and they have the 2^nd worst defence in Championship.

Brighton are in a bad run of results, but watching more closely I had an impression they haven’t been “that” bad. Three draws and one defeat of last four in league. Goalless draw at home vs. Hull (Hull with their strong away record), then point at the Den against Millwall. A minimal home defeat against West Ham in a game that could have gone in both directions and finally a hard fought point away at Brum. They’ve been defending very well and been dangerous in front. I think it will be working nice at Vicarage Road and find this price very generous.

Bet: Brighton 0.0
Odd: 2.11 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 8/10
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Championship betting, Hull City - Watford

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Second best defence in the league, against the side that hasn’t score in four of last five and have three straight defeats. Hull are in a great shape, undefeated in last seven league matches, three home wins in a row (Reading, Portsmouth and Cardiff). Things to worry is Hull also have scored only nine in eleven games this season (same as Watford) and only four in five at home. However, momentum is on home side and while they could easily finish in the play-off zone, Watford will be surely struggling to avoid relegation.

Home win, no handicap.

Bet: Hull
Odd: 1.81 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 7/10
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Championship betting, Watford - West Ham

This is another season where I tipped Watford as serious contender for relegation. This time should be even harder for them than usual. Probably two most important figures left the Vicarage Road. Manager Malky Mackay (now in Cardiff) and his key man, Danny Graham (to Swansea for 3.5mill). Important midfielder, Don Cowie and winger Will Buckley also left the club. Good news are new manager is ex-assistant, Sean Dyche and he didn’t change the style of play. They have brought several players and got experience with Mark Yeates, Chris Iwelumo, David Mirfin, Craig Forsyth, Prince Buaben, but I think they lost in quality comparing with previous season. Only absence is long-term injury of Stephen McGinn. The Hornets have failed to win 10 of their last 11 Championship outings.

I guess it looks unusual for the Hamers’ fans watching them winning and being favourite before any game. They have unreal squad for the 2nd tier and obviously a failure to gain promotion would be real disaster. My concern regarding their ambitions is Big Sam (accepted the job despite announcing his ambitions to take Real or Barca) and his defensive style of play, adjusted to his previous clubs. It’s kind a weird to play 4-5-1 against injury clashed Donny where they actually should have dominated and scored an easy victory. However, they’re still a class above other teams in Championship. John Carew has been training last seven days and should be in contention. Along with Julien Faubert, Carlton Cole and George McCartney. 

2.31 is pretty high and I think we won’t be seeing such odd for West Ham during the season. However, I still have concerns about Sam’s 4-5-1 and I am afraid he could be satisfied with a draw here. So, I am taking -0.25. With a draw, half of the stake is back.


Bet: West Ham -0.25
Odd: 1.96 Pinnacle
Stake: 7/10 
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Watford - Norwich

Watford have lost three games in a row (‘Boro, Coventry and Hull) and seems already gave up from a play-off spot. They are on my black list, simply they win when nobody wants them to win. And this is game just like that, they have no real motivation, but can play fully relaxed and score. When we talk about scoring, Watford at home have unreal average of 3.2 goals per a game (36-28 goal difference at 20 games). No injury concerns for boss Malky Mackay.

Norwich, on the other hand, are fighting for a direct promotion. They’re second with a point more than Welsh duo Cardiff and Swans. In the previous round, they suffered a heavy defeat at Swans 0-3 and ended a run of nine games without defeat. Interesting fact is, under Paul Lambert (since August 2009), they haven’t made a two defeats in a row. On the other hand, they have bad record against tonight’s hosts. Norwich won just once in last seven occasions (both at home and away) and lost five of them. Midfielder Wes Hoolahan is rated as in doubt.

I expect from Norwich to bounce back and they should be closer to win. And when Watford are losing (same when winning) they do it in series. But, also expect an open game with both sides scoring. Over for me.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.80 various
Stake: 8/10
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Reading - Watford

Before couple of weeks, Reading looked like a serious play-off contender. But the winless run of five games (3D-2L) moved them down to 12th place. However, I have impression their performances are a quite better than last results. In the previous round they conceded a late equalizer at Sheffield, before that lost in additional time at Norwich, then unlucky lost vs. 10 men QPR and before that again conceded an injury time goal at Cardiff for a draw. Midfielder Karacan is still serving a ban, defender Pearce is injured, but Mikele Leigertwood is back after served his three-game suspension.

Watford are also winless in last five (six including Cup). Two noticed points came from games against bottom sides Preston and Palace and they conceded five goals in last two games (both at home). Differently from Reading, I can’t see any possible improvement and would predict their slump will continue. Defender Lloyd Doyley will face a late fitness test, striker Buckley is out.

I think it’s a matter of time when Reading will start to climb on table again and sinking Watford should be a nice chance for the recovering of play-off hopes. Home win.

Bet: Reading -0.5
Odd: 1.85 (Gamebookers)
Stake: 8/10
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More to follow...
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FA Cup - 29.01.

Some interesting games in FA Cup. Post will be updating with new picks.

Burnley - Burton

Burnley are very strong home side (5th in Championship considering points at home) and probably they’ll be in chase for promotion (through play-off). New boss Eddie Howe, started to improve away record winning at Portsmouth (at the same beat terrible record against Pompey). This is first home game and he’ll probably try to keep the momentum.

Guys from Pirelli Stadium are fighting for their lives in League Two (58 places lower than Burnley) with probably the worst away record in English football (6 points of 9 games). They started to improve under new boss Peschisolido and in previous round shocked ‘Boro at home, but don’t think they’re even close to surprise here.

I’ll try with two bets. The Clarets are strong favourites in my opinion (despite it’s a Cup) and I expect at least two goals margin (with one, half stake is back). Other one is gamble in hoping players will continue to impress new boss. Pure instinct.  

Bet 1: Burnley -1.25
Odd: 1.74 Canbet
Stake: 8/10
 

Bet 2: Burnley -3ah
Odd: 5.75 bet365
Stake: 1/10
 

Watford - Brighton

Watford are the highest scorers in Championship with 52 goals(!) in 26 games and their last eight games (seven in league) went in over 2.5 (five were over 3.5). Last weekend’s defeat at Cardiff ended their run of seven consecutive wins (six in league)! Malky Mackay rotated players in previous round vs. Hartlepool and will probably do that again. Skipper Eustace is rated as doubtful and will probably be saved for the league.

Brighton are flying high in the League One and it seems they’re sure for direct promotion (six points more than 3rd Hudders and game in hand). They’re playing nice, passing game that usually produces goals. In 2011. (last six games), The Seagulls scored 15 times. They won five of the last six league and cup encounters, in previous round they eliminated Pompey and as Hornets they shouldn’t be lacking in confidence.

I guess both sides are hoping for progress. Wouldn’t dare to predict a winner, but I think we’ll be watching an entertaining game and goals on both sides.

Bet: Over 2.75
Odd: 2.04 188bet
Stake: 8/10

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Cardiff - Watford

Home side are promotion contender, currently two points behind rivals Swansea (with a game in hand). Pressure on Dave Jones is growing recently as they won only two of their last nine league games. He has signed on loan Arsenal’s Aaron Ramsey and striker Jay Emmanuel-Thomas. Both will be available for the game. Bothroyd returned to training and will have some role today. Bellamy should start.  

Before the start Watford were one of my favourites for relegation (as ‘Boro were for promotion), but they’re currently holding 6th place and have noticed seven wins in a row (six in league), having scored the highest number of goals (50, two goals per game in average)! Malky Mackay also has strengthened his squad with signing winger Townsend and striker Weimann on loan. Despite skipper Eustace and midfielder Cowie are sidelined, I’m sure they won’t be lacking in self-confidence.

Cardiff should be favourite here, but I’m not sure does it worth at 2.00. Games between these two sides are usually high scoring affairs, last nine(!) ended with three or more goals and I’m going on over.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.87 188bet
Stake: 8/10

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Weekend's results

My betting weekend in one sentence. Barnsley and Chelsea were extremely unlucky to not book the three points, Berbatov went insane, Norwich were great, Everton disgusting.

Barnsley - Watford 0-0  1/2 LOST
Man Utd - Blackburn 7-1 WON
Everton - WBA 1-4 LOST
Norwich - Ipswich 4-1 WON
.....................................................Newcastle - Chelsea 1-1 LOST

Updated statistic and list of bets.
Still deep in red.

Maybe one bet, little later.

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Barnsley - Watford

Will try to be short as it’s possible. The Tykes are in a great run with three consecutive wins, Preston and Ipswich (both away) and in last round won over Pompey at home. At Oakwell, their form is generally good (as always), five wins, two draws and two defeats. Barnsley won last four home games against Watford. Today will be without suspended midfielder, Nathan Doyle.

Before the start of the season, I predicted Watford will be one of the teams that will fight for avoiding relegation. Surprisingly good results launched them into the top half of the table, but lately they’re losing the breath. They’re winless in six league games and have noticed four away defeats in a row. At Oakwell, won just once in past 16 years. Skipper, John Eustace, has served his suspension and returns into contention.

Team morale will be opposite. With home ground and slight difference in quality, it should be enough of advantage for the home side. I expect a tough game (goals are likely), but home win at the end.

 

Bet: Barnsley -0.25
Odd: 2.10 various
Stake: 8/10

More to follow... 
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Weekend and statistic update

Fourth time I wished to bet on City's game this season and noticed fourth loss! Really great...

Bristol City - Preston 1-1  1/2 LOSS
Watford - Nottingham Forest 1-1  DRAW
Plymouth - Swindon 0-4  WON
WBA - Man City 0-2  LOSS

Statistic:

November
Profit: -5.6 units Yield: -14.36%

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Season
Profit: -33.46 units Yield: -8.25%

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Watford - Nottingham Forest

Despite they were already seen in the relegation battle before the start, the Hornerts made some great results that launched them in the top half of the table. Young players, combat spirit, attacking style with excellent leadership by Malky Mackay are Watford this season. However, they started to losing their breath lately. First Scunny took all three points from Vicarage Road, then they get trashed at Derby in the last round (1-4). Striker Danny Graham, should be fit, but defender Hodson and winger Cowie are sidelined. Watford have won only two of their last 11 home games against Forest.

Forest (as any team under Billy Davies) are well known “slow starters”. Differently from previous seasons, after run of draws they noticed two defeats on the road Barnsley 1-3 and Portsmouth 1-2 (and two wins at home though). Good excuse could be missing of attacking duo Tyson  – Earsnshaw. Both were on the bench in the last round, Earnshaw will start today’s game. They were second rated favorite for winning the Championship, nothing has changed in their potential and I expect them to make a winning streak very soon. No injury concerns for Davies.

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Watford had a surprising start which probably will make their mission easier to accomplish. But for me, they’re still relegation contender and expect their fall on the table. With Forest, situation is completely opposite. I cannot exclude a possibility of another draw, but see visitors as favorites here.

Bet: Nott Forest 0.0
Odd: 2.19 188bet
Stake: 7/10

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Saturday's results - great month in total

Hat-trick, my mates! August is a great month. Hope you enjoy.

Probably one pick, later.

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Millwall - Coventry  3-1  WON

Man Utd - West Ham  3-0  WON

Watford - Leeds  0-1  WON

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Statistic:

Profit: +29.36

Yield: +27.57%

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Watford - Leeds United

Watford made a decent start, with an opening win at Norwich (3-2) and two draws (Coventry at home and Hull away). They’re hard working, fighting team, but beside that in my opinion they don’t have to offer too much and still remains as main contenders for relegation. Boss Malky Mackay has a headache about some of his key players. Striker Danny Graham has a groin problem and he’s doubtful. Skipper Eustace, Lee Hodson and Martin Taylor have some injuries, but are expected to play. Watford have won only two of the 10 previous league matches between these clubs.

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After shocking defeat vs. Derby in the first round, Leeds bounced back with a draw at Nottingham and a home win vs. Millwall. Simon Grayson has a decent squad and personally wouldn’t be surprised to see them in play-off, eventually. Biggest problem is back four and Kasper Schmeichel is usually forced to cover all the holes (he’s doing it great btw.). Good midfield and very strong attacking potential. Paynter and Snodgrass will be out for a while, but club signed excellent Ross McCormack from Cardiff and he could have his debut. Leeds have only lost once at Vicarage Road, 0-1 in March 1990.

 

This will be surely a tight affair. I’m surprised with these odds (expected same for both sides). I think Leeds will win this one, but leave some space for a draw.

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Bet: Leeds +0.25ah
Odd: 2.09 188bet
Stake: 7/10
 
That's it for today, lads. Good luck!
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Voohooo!

Dagen. & Redbr. - Burton Albion 1 @ 1.94  2-1

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Leicester – Watford -0.75 ah @ 1.85  4-1

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Hartlepool United - Colchester Utd. 1 DNB @ 1.85  3-1

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Blackpool - Nottingham Forest 1 @ 2.00  3-1

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Hope you enjoyed. See you tomorrow. Dule

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Leicester – Watford

Leicester overcame the crisis of results (4 consecutive defeats) and with two wins in a row (QPR home 4-0 and Peterborough away 2-1), they’re one step from a play-off spot. Margin between them and 7th Blackpool is 4 points and theoretically they could seal the play-off even today. But, after Watford, Leicester will play 2 very difficult games, Preston-away and in last round Boro at home. So, win today is crucial. Different epilogue would bring a trouble. Midfielder Lloyd Dyer is returning after a knock vs. Posh. No other worries for boss Pearson. 

Watford are fighting to avoid relegation. They’re 19th, three points far from a line, but played a game less than the opponents. They’re undefeated in last 3 occasions, beating in last round a direct opponent from the bottom – Argyle. But, their shape on the road looks sensationally bad. In last 13 games, 10 defeats and 3 draws, all without a clean sheet and just on 2 of them didn’t concede 2 or more goals! Defender Harley and midfielder Lansbury served their suspensions and return to the squad. 

For Leicester, whole season is a stake and no room for an easy approach. I expect a fighting game from them and a win with at least two goals margin. Personally, expected 1.50-1.55 for a home win and think –0.75 ah at these odds is very good bet. StanJames offer 2.00, bet365 1.85.
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it's a nightmare - sorry to followers

Coventry 1 - 1 Plymouth

Michael McIndoe scored the equaliser as Coventry made it four games without defeat to continue their play-off push in the Championship.
The hosts had the better of the chances in the first half but went in trailing after Kari Arnason headed home Damien Johnson's free-kick before break. 
McIndoe wasted no time in drawing the home side level after the break when he coolly converted a Carl Baker pass. 
Sammy Clingan had a shot deflected wide as the hosts pressed for a winner. 
Plymouth had their first attack when Jamie Mackie drove the ball wide of the upright from the edge of the area. 
Keiren Westwood was then forced to make a fantastic save from Mackie after he drilled a strong drive towards the top corner. 
Clinton Morrison saw his shot from inside the area go harmlessly wide before a weak Clingan shot was watched wide by Plymouth goalkeeper David Stockdale. 
As the first half drew to a close Baker found himself free in the area but Plymouth's Yannick Bolaise made a last-ditch tackle to clear the ball behind for a corner. 
The Pilgrims took the lead with the final attack of the first half when Arnason glanced a header into the net from Johnson's free-kick. 
Sky Blues manager Chris Coleman made two changes at the break with Gary Deegan and Marcus Hall replacing Aron Gunnarsson and Stephen Wright. 
The changes spurred the hosts into life and after just four minutes of the second half Baker chipped the ball through for McIndoe to race onto and he slotted low into the bottom corner to level the scores. 
Coventry continued to push forward and Jon Stead almost gave them the lead with a turn and shot from the edge of the area. 
Plymouth substitute Gary Sawyer almost made an immediate impact with a long-range effort that drifted wide. 
In the closing stages Pilgrims midfielder Carl Fletcher had an effort blocked by Hall and a Chris Clark cross almost caught Westwood out.
Bolasie almost snatched the points in injury time but his volley was blocked en route to goal by Coventry's defence.

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Watford 0 - 1 Peterborough

Relegation-threatened Peterborough saw off fellow strugglers Watford to claim their first away win of the season.
Brighton loanee Liam Dickinson sealed the points for the Posh with an audacious 35-yard lob over England Under-21 goalkeeper Scott Loach. 
Adrian Mariappa went close for Watford with a deflected shot, as did Danny Graham and substitute Will Hoskins. 
But the Hornets were fortunate not to concede a late second when Martin Taylor headed against his own crossbar. 
Victory gave Jim Gannon's side back-to-back wins for the first time this season. 
But a fourth successive defeat did Watford, who barely threatened before the break and were only roused once Peterborough had scored, no favours. 
And only the defiance of Loach, whose early double save denied Craig Mackail-Smith and Dickinson, and a stroke of luck, when Aaron Mclean hit the post from range, saved Watford from a heavier defeat. 
The goal came six minutes after the break when Loach, scrambling to clear with Mark Little advancing, saw the ball fall to Dickinson, who sent a calm finish over the stranded goalkeeper. 
Watford manager Malky Mackay: "We're down in that relegation area but we've got to make sure that between now and the end of the season we win as many games as possible.
"We were frustrated today, the players were frustrated but they were giving everything they had for the jersey today. 
"We've got to make sure that we stick together, which they are doing, and go out there and keep working hard on the pitch."
Peterborough manager Jim Gannon: "It's great for the fans and players because it's been a long time coming for them.
"With 11 or 12 games remaining we've got to double our points average. It's an incredible mountain for that group of players to achieve, especially if the squad's being depleted and you've got so many injuries. 
"All I'm asking them to do is go from game to game and do themselves justice and in the last two games they've certainly done that."

www.bbc.co.uk

Watford - Peterborough

Watford have noticed just one point of last four games and they’re now just two points far from relegation zone. Good thing is their performances at Vicarage Road are actually good. Their last two loses came from very strong sides. First, Newcastle took all three points (1-2), but the truth is they scored after only two serious treats. In the last round, Hornets were unlucky against Swansea (0-1), dominating most of the game, but conceded after big error of defense line. Even more encouraging than a home shape is return of midfielder Tom Cleverley (loaned from Man.Utd.) after 3 games suspension. Interesting is Watford lost all those 3 games and lost 5 out of 6 when Cleverley didn’t play. No injury concerns for boss Malky Mackay.

 

Peterborough are on bottom without a real chance to avoid relegation. While at home fighting spirit supported with disaster pitch has been bringing some results, their away shape is scandalous. Only four draws in 17 games and nine goals scored is the far worst record in Championship. The Posh have lost their last seven away games and failed to score in the last four of them. Manager Jim Gannon has been trying to motivate players to fight till the last game, but my impression is they all know they’re already relegated. Gannon can not count on midfielder Lee Frecklington and winger Chris Whelpdale.   

 

Watford’s home displays, return of Cleverley and Peterborough on the road are main reasons. I expect a home win with two-three goals margin.

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Instict was correct

Preston North End 1 - 4 Barnsley

0 - 1 A.S.d. Franca  8.min.
1 - 1 D. Welbeck  27.min.
1 - 2 M. Hart (o.g.)  41.min.
1 - 3 A. Gray  69.min.
1 - 4 J. Rodriguez  90.min.

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Watford 3 - 0 Sheffield United

1 - 0 T. Cleverley  39.min.
2 - 0 H. Helguson  55.min.
3 - 0 D. Cowie  74.min.
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Some thoughts

Preston should win tonight.In fact considering everything that I've read,there's not a single reason not to be.Except...Well,except my instict.And I rate it as,for example,missings of best scorer and goalie.It's obvious home win,but something simply doesn't fit.I haven't posted this earlier,'cause don't want to ruin someone's work (another top post neo!).Follow your own insticts.

My initial thoughts were to back Sheff.Utd..Hornets are awfull and that's it about them.Blades,in my opinion will finish in play-off.Injuries are past,but they have two very important missings for tonight.Key defenders,Kilgallon and Wallker.While Kilgallon's departure is also good thing for the club(again in my opinion),unexpected yesterday's departure of second one is a blow.Second thing,odds on Utd. have been raising fast.I doubt bookies know anything that I don't,but in combination with first reason it's enough to stay beside.

Well,not picks but thoughts.Maybe it could be useful for someone.

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