Championship final, 5.50 gamble


Reading  - Swansea

I have same feeling for Reading, as I had for Posh. At the first glance two evenly matched sides, but formal hosts seem to have more tactical discipline and for me look better under the pressure. If we expect a nervy game, some advantage would go to them. Their away record shouldn’t be overlooked as well. Reading are without a defeat in league in last nine trips, in last four haven’t conceded (two of those were Leeds and Cardiff re-match). Swans defeated Millwall and made a heroic 10 men performance vs. Forest, but before that automatic promotion were lost on their away games. Two key men in my opinion are Shane Long (of course) and Nathan Dyer (very annoying lad when you bet against Swans). Five of last seven finals ended with 1-0. Shane Long have had a brilliant season, his top performance in the most important game should natural. He to score and Reading to win 1-0 is tasty 29.00. Second scoring option is Ian Harte (same bet for him is 67.00 at Victor Chandler). He already played Champions League semi, he’ll be calm and have scored 10 goals in 30 games for Reading!
After all no serious bet, it is 90mill game (they must be joking!) and it’s more feeling than the facts. Gamble for me would be Shane Long to score and Reading to win @ 5.50 (Paddy Power).
Sorry for late posting. Good luck to all and enjoy the game.

Gamble: Long to score and Reading to win
Odd: 5.50 Paddy Power 

Stake: 1/10
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England and Serbia, two bets

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Huddersfield - Peterborough  

No big philosophy here. Two extremely attacking sides and even if Peterborough wish to play one of their tight games, Hudders won’t allow that. Have some ugly feeling in the gut Posh will make it, but will stick to the goals.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.80 Expekt
Stake: 8/10
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Vojvodina - Crvena Zvezda

This is clash for 2nd place. Both sides aren’t careless since it would bring two additional weeks for summer rest (winner will start from 3rd round qualifications for Europa League, loser from 2nd) and both coaches stated its importance. Zvezda also celebrate jubilee, 20 years from being European Champions and crowds will be packed. There’s also a little prestige between these two sides. Zvezda play extremely attacking football (with extremely poor scoring ability though), Vojvodina won’t be defending at home. I’m pretty surprised with these odds, I would rather expect something around 1.85. And it’s not like I missed something.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 2.30 William Hill
Stake: 8/10


Crvena Zvezda - Olimpique, 29.5.1991. last penalty and celebration 
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CL betting, Barcelona - Man Utd


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Last time, Ferguson tried to keep it tight and lost it pretty easily. Now, he says he’ll attack Barca. I expect something between, but certainly an open game. Guardiola will probably put Mascherano in central defence (to be shown a card is 2.30 at Paddy Power), idea is to protect from Chicharito’s speed. Then SAF could put Berbatov to get advantage in the air... I’ll stop on open game. First thought was to go on over 2.5 with very nice odds (currently 2.38 at 188bet), but it could be tricky if in the final scoreline at one moment is 1-1 where both sides could reduce a risk. In situation where United won’t be so defensive and Barca hopefully won’t have very bad day, I expect both sides to score.
A gamble would be Hernandez to score first. Mexican fella is star of the future (if not now) and I expect him to play an important role tonight.

Bet: Both to score
Odd: 2.05 Unibet
Stake: 8/10


Gamble: Hernandez to score 1st
Odd: 10.00 William Hill
Stake: 1/10 
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Premier League Betting


Man Utd - Blackpool,
United at home have a fearful record of 17 wins of 18 games. Only failure was a draw vs. WBA when they conceded two funny goals after 2-0 (remember how much I was happy with my -2 bet at ht). However, Blackpool are not West Ham from few seasons ago and I cannot imagine any, for them positive scenario. Nice and easy home win. 3-0 correct result.

Bet: Man Utd -1
Odd: 1.84 Betsson
Stake: 8/10



Fulham - Arsenal
The Cottagers are in very good shape, Arsenal are in a free fall and can’t see a reason why that should change today. I feel these odds are set wrong and think there’s a value on backing home side. Have been thinking about the best bet and decided not to be greedy.

Bet: Fulham +0.25
Odd: 2.25 (Canbet)
Stake: 7/10

And two small gambles (out of the record).
1.Overs in all games (Man Utd, Spurs and Man City over 3). Last day, why not? It could pay me a holiday, odd is 838.43 at 188bet.
2.In case Arry didn’t joke about Europa League. Birmingham to win + Liverpool draw. Double at 22.75, also 188bet.
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Betting tip, Peterborough - MK Dons


Going on the road today, no time for elaboration. Ten of ten.

Bet: Over 3
Odd: 2.08 188bet
Stake: 10/10 

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Play-off betting, Cardiff - Reading


Like the prospect of goals here and especially odds on it. Both sides are attacking minded (Cardiff at home) and those are fifth and third attacks in Championship. Cardiff’s style is different when they play at home which usually makes them more vulnerable at the back. Their matches against top scoring sides produced some goals, Norwich 3-1, Leeds 2-1, Reading 2-2 and Watford 3-1. Think Reading is more than able to hurt the hosts and I doubt that Dave Jones will change the style and set a cautious approach relying on his defence line. Counter attacks, Shane Long, Ian Harte free kicks, I’m sure Reading will be very dangerous. Additionally, Cardiff at home and Reading away have scored in 18 of their 23 games during the season. Also, only one game at Cardiff City Stadium ended with goalless draw.
Maybe not enough reasons, but as I said odd definitely worth a try. I will take over 2.25, with two goals half stake is back.

I’m refusing any thought to be involved in a City’s game tonight.

Bet: Over 2.25
Odd: 1.96 188bet
Stake: 8/10 

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Premier League betting - two picks

It's good reasoning as always, but quite frankly I'm lazy to type. 
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Liverpool - Tottenham
Bet: Liverpool -0.75
Odd: 1.95 Stan James
Stake: 8/10



Wigan - West Ham 
Bet: Wigan -0.5
Odd: 2.08 Pinnacle

Stake: 7/10 

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Premier League betting, Blackpool - Bolton


Can’t really see how 2.00 (and still dropping) for the side that hasn’t won in last nine games could be a good deal. Saying that, I’ll exclude the reasoning like must win, don’t need... This really is do or die for the Seasiders, but that certainly doesn’t guarantee anything. Holloway changed their gung ho style, realizing that one point is always better than high scoring defeat. They have three draws in a row, but another draw (with a trip to Old Trafford in last round) would practically send them down. And chasing a win with a defence that has conceded 71 goals in 36 games could be very problematic.

Bolton had some very good runs of results during the season and look careless at 9th spot. They lost last three games in a row, also lost last four on the road (ten of eleven). They really look like they’re with one foot on the beach already, but this kind of games could wake the team from the lethargy.  Also, don’t think club’s board finds it the same if the Trotters finish 8th or 14th (four points margin). Coyle will be without midfielder Mark Davies.

Maybe it’s more instinct than facts, but I expect a goal fest. It’s too big stake for Blackpool even to keep minimal lead. On the other hand, big pressure could make them even more vulnerable. I’d predict goals on both sides.

Bet: Over 3
Odd: 2.07 Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10

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League One betting, Bournemouth - Huddersfield 13:45 cet


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Bournemouth lost the pace when Eddie Howe left the club (for Burnley). They did secure the play-off, but crew doesn’t look like same as before. The Cherries have noticed only two wins out of last twelve matches, while the biggest concern for boss Bradbury is defence line that is still leaking too many goals (without a clean sheet in mentioned twelve). Bournemouth haven’t defeated today’s opponent in last 12 occasions (both at home and away).

Hudders are the biggest favorites in play-off and books offer 2.50-2.65 for their promotion. I can’t see how it’s better than backing them in all three games. However, they are in a pretty good shape as they have 25 games without a defeat. Also, Hudders have noticed six away wins in a row (including sides like Brighton and MK Dons) and scored 12 goals in last four games. Beside long-term injuries, boss Clark has a full squad available while loaned players all got clearance to feature.

The biggest favorites don’t always win, pressure certainly will be on them, last time they crashed under the weight of great expectations, could be down hearted for losing a direct promotion. No, not enough reasons even for a doubt. Hudders will go to Old Trafford (interesting, not Wembley). Home side in some scenario only could snatch a draw. I guess both to score is also a good bet (or 1-1 correct score could be nice gamble), but will back the visitors (with covering the draw).

More to follow... 

Bet: Hudders 0.0
Odd: 2.05 188bet
Stake: 8/10 

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Play-off betting, Nott Forest - Swansea


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Forest had plenty of problems to secure a play-off spot (although they had been already seen in it) as they had a nine games winless run (4 draws, 5 defeats). But they woke up just in time to notice five wins out of last six matches (one defeat at Norwich with very good display) and scored 17 goals in it. Experience playing in the previous play-off won’t harm as well. No injury worries for Billy Davies, since goalie Camp and midfielder Moussi are declared fit.

Swans also hit some good form, winning last three in a row, scoring ten in those and keeping a clean sheet in three of last four games. They have been facing plenty of problems when play away from home (won at the Den though) and collected as much as 11 defeats on the road. Before victory at Millwall, they’ve noticed four defeats of five, losing against relegated Preston and Scunny. Despite Brendan Rodgers is repeating they’re relaxed, I think they feel a bit more pressure than Forest.

Far from thinking the Jacks are without a chance, but at City Ground Forest are favorites regardless the name of the opponent. I expect a much more responsible approach that should prevent unnecessary conceding (like at Bristol, for example). They’re maybe even slight favorites for promotion. Home win. 

Bet: Nott Forest
Odd: 2.30
William Hill
Stake: 7/10

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Man Utd - Chelsea


No need for a big philosophy here. 2-0 correct result.
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Bet: Man Utd -0.25
Odd: 2.01 Canbet
Stake: 7/10

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Wolves - WBA, betting tip - 13h cet


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Wolves are two points below the line and in last two rounds will visit Sunderland and in last day potential cracker, will host Blackburn. It’s a must win game, one point would leave only slim chances for survive. They’re winless in last five and will have some problems in front line as Kightly, Ebanks-Blake and Doyle are probably all out. Wolves have noticed only one win out of last ten clashes against WBA.

The Baggies are safe, but wouldn’t lack in motivation to send big rivals down to Championship. Since Roy Hodgson took the charge, they look like reborn with just one defeat out of last ten matches (Chelsea). Skipper Brunt, Reid and Jara are doubts, Scharner is suspended, Jerome Thomas should play.

I cannot see Wolves winning this one. They look toothless in front and defensive line is prone to big mistakes. Keeping a draw doesn’t make too much sense, but if they push too much for a winner will get execution.
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Bet: WBA 0.0
Odd: 2.45 Tipico
Stake: 7/10

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Peterborough - Dag & Red


No time for a full preview, games in Championship are about to start. Just pick.

Bet: Over 3
Odd: 1.95 Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10

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West Ham - Blackburn


The Hammers cannot afford to lose this one, although even defeat wouldn’t eliminate them since they’ll have Wigan at home and Sunderland away in the last two rounds. Five defeats and a draw in last six encounters, but mainly against top sides. West Ham don’t play badly, but cannot defend properly as they conceded 14 goals in last five games. Also five of their last six wins came after they scored three goals or more. Parker and Upson will have a late fitness test. The Hammers have won eight out of last nine competitive games at home against Blackburn.

The Rovers grabbed big three points in previous  round defeating Bolton at home. Before that, they were in a free fall with four draws and six defeats out of ten. On the road they took just a point of last seven games and hold the worst defensive record on the road (40 goals in 17 games). They have three players rated as in doubt, Hoilett, Dunn and Salgado. Manager Kean says that he expects two of them to be in the team.

I still don’t get it how the team with such talent as West Ham lie at the bottom. I’ll stick to my previous opinion and predict they will stay. Fancy them to win today, but will take goals as safer option. 

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.84 Canbet
Stake: 8/10

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Championship Betting - 13:45 cet

Swansea - Sheff Utd

The reasons I wrote yesterday apply.

Bet: Swansea -1
Odd: 1.86 Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10 

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Crystal Palace - Nottingham Forest

Palace will stay in Championship. They secured the status mainly with great home run of results with only one defeat out of last 15 games at Selhurst Park. Interesting fact is all but one of those 14 were draws, or wins by one goal.
Forest need a point to be mathematically in play-off, but even without it it’s hard to believe Leeds will be able to jeopardize their spot. Same is with their chances to leapfrog Reading.
I expect a relaxed game without any pressure. Palace wouldn’t like to lose in the last home game, Forest won’t push for a win and will just try to avoid defeat keeping the momentum for play-off. My gamble of a day is draw.

Bet: Draw
Odd: 3.60 Ladbrokes
Stake: 3/10   
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Championship - last round 7 May


Now it becomes really ridiculous. FA has delayed its verdict to Monday as the earliest date. This practically means QPR, Cardiff, Swans and even Leeds won’t even know for what they’re playing.

I think Warnock will ask lads for “one more time”, to finish it with the style and pray for the best. Leeds have, not only to win, but to hope Nott Forest will lose at C.Palace and eventually to overcome -6 goal difference! Hm... QPR still could be a very good bet (2.20 at William Hill and 188bet). As well as Cardiff and Swansea. Cardiff will certainly try to regain some confidence after Monday’s embarrassment. 2.90 in some form of handicap looks decent (let’s say 0.0 @ 2.12 188bet). Brendan Rodgers says Swansea are normally preparing for play-off. Against bottom eight clubs, they have six wins of seven games (this will be 8th). Sheff Utd made a sensational win at Reading, but then in a decisive game missed to defeat Barnsley at home! How painful it could be?! I guess no one there will be in the mood for football tomorrow. Which again, makes -1ah @ 1.93 Pinnacle probably a very good call. 

For the end, here’s one very good article from QPR fans’ forum. And very depressive for them. Guy predicts 30 points deduction with very good reasons and examples from the past. 

Betting previews will follow...

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Cardiff - Middlesbrough


Dead heat between Cardiff and Norwich continues. The Bluebirds play first today and have a chance to put some pressure on the Canaries. Recently they’re scoring for fun (20 goals in last 8 games, scored in every of them), but at same time have been showing some defensive frailties. Goalie Bywater is back, Cardiff have won last six games at home vs. ‘Boro.

I feel ashamed to tipped ‘Boro as league favourites, before the season started. Guess no one would be able to give a proper answer what’s happened. They did secure the status, but continue with decent displays. Just one defeat out of last 10 encounters and as Cardiff have scored in each of last eight (seven of those ended with 3 or more goals). ‘Boro also have produced some non-common results this year, like 3-3 (twice), 3-4, 2-5, 4-2. Striker McDonald and defenders, McManus and McMahon, are in doubt. 

It’s out of question who’s favourite in this game. But, ‘Boro have very good quality (deeply underachieved though) and they’re probably the most unpredictable side in Championship. I guess they’d simply enjoy to bury Cardiff’s hopes. Think they’re definitely able to score, maybe even to make a first class surprise.

Bet: Over 3
Odd: 2.03 Canbet
Stake: 8/10 
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Few words about April



That’s how I spoiled the best month this season. One win out of five bets, few years ago I made zero out of five. Almost... My stats says that early bets provides only loses (every month, except August). Which is kind a weird, since the odds are significantly better the day before. However, 10.13% of yield makes April a decent month.
Thanks for visiting, lads.

One preview will follow...

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