Delije Sever - 29.08.2010.

It's off-topic, but too great to be overlooked!: ) Pay attention on the video. Madness!

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Video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XtmxByasjqI&feature=sub

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Sunday's result and statistic update

Something is very disturbing in Liverpool's play. Disappointing. 

They were robbed for an obvious penalty, but probably didn't deserve it.

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Liverpool - WBA  1-0  1/2 LOSS

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Statistic:

Profit: 25.36

Yield: +22.15%

See all bets

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Liverpool – WBA

Hodgson’s era isn’t started well. And if we can say Reina’s stupidity wasn’t so big tragedy, one derby defeat as well, then home failure against WBA would have an impact like a strong earthquake at Enfield. Importance of this game is even bigger because next L’pool 2 games, Brum and Man Utd both away. However, at home Liverpool won 13 of 19 games last season. 9 of those 13 were with 2 or more goals margin. Also won their last 10 games against WBA, 9 of them by at least 2 goals and have kept 17 clean sheets in their last 20 matches at home. Agger and Rodriguez are doubtful, Joe Cole still suspended, but Gerrard and Torres are back after Europa League rest.

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The Baggies were hammered by Chelsea in the first round (0-6), but it seems they didn’t care too much about it as they bounced back in the next game and defeated Sunderland (1-0). Home wins should be a key for their possible survival in the Premier, Di Matteo knows that and I think they won’t be caring too much about away defeats from top sides. He can’t count on some important players. Defenders Marek Cech and Joe Mattock, midfielder Jerome Thomas and striker Ishmael Miller will miss the game through injury. WBA have won just 3 of their last 18 Premier League matches, haven't won a Premier game away in 17 attempts, winning only one in the last 28 and scored just one goal in their last 10 matches at Enfield!

 

I think public is little overreacting about the problems at Liverpool. Mascherano’s departure isn’t so big blow. His staying would be bigger, considering his behavior lately. They’re very good squad, looked very well against Gunners and this is a nice chance to return a self confidence.

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Bet: Liverpool -1.25ah 

Odd: 1.76 188bet
Stake: 8/10
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Saturday's results - great month in total

Hat-trick, my mates! August is a great month. Hope you enjoy.

Probably one pick, later.

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Millwall - Coventry  3-1  WON

Man Utd - West Ham  3-0  WON

Watford - Leeds  0-1  WON

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Statistic:

Profit: +29.36

Yield: +27.57%

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Watford - Leeds United

Watford made a decent start, with an opening win at Norwich (3-2) and two draws (Coventry at home and Hull away). They’re hard working, fighting team, but beside that in my opinion they don’t have to offer too much and still remains as main contenders for relegation. Boss Malky Mackay has a headache about some of his key players. Striker Danny Graham has a groin problem and he’s doubtful. Skipper Eustace, Lee Hodson and Martin Taylor have some injuries, but are expected to play. Watford have won only two of the 10 previous league matches between these clubs.

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After shocking defeat vs. Derby in the first round, Leeds bounced back with a draw at Nottingham and a home win vs. Millwall. Simon Grayson has a decent squad and personally wouldn’t be surprised to see them in play-off, eventually. Biggest problem is back four and Kasper Schmeichel is usually forced to cover all the holes (he’s doing it great btw.). Good midfield and very strong attacking potential. Paynter and Snodgrass will be out for a while, but club signed excellent Ross McCormack from Cardiff and he could have his debut. Leeds have only lost once at Vicarage Road, 0-1 in March 1990.

 

This will be surely a tight affair. I’m surprised with these odds (expected same for both sides). I think Leeds will win this one, but leave some space for a draw.

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Bet: Leeds +0.25ah
Odd: 2.09 188bet
Stake: 7/10
 
That's it for today, lads. Good luck!
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Manchester United - West Ham

United drew at Craven Cottage when already noted 3 points. Two times lead, wasted penalty and 88th minute equalizer made Fergie raging after the game. Main target was defense line that should reacted much better before both goals. Additional thing that makes him nervous is Chelsea and their 12 goals in just 2 games. West Ham game should be a response to those who don’t believe. Rooney is in the team after a stomach bug and he’ll try to back on the track after 13 games without a goal. This is a nice opportunity for raising self confidence. Paul Scholes will probably be rested and replaced with Michael Carrick. United have won 11 of their last 12 league matches at Old Trafford and scored 3.25 goals per game in average. Against West Ham won their last five matches and scored 14 goals in those.

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The Hammers started the campaign in a manner that should announce another bleak season. Two defeats and 6 goals conceded. And while opening loss vs. Villa wasn’t so unexpected, real shock came in the second game with 1-3 home defeat vs. Bolton (side that is well known with defending approach to away games). Team doesn’t look dangerous, midfielders can’t cope and in defense anarchy rules. Considering the funds that have been invested in the squad, despite part of that was hardly wasted (can’t not to think about Diamanti), management probably expects more than a fight for avoiding relegation and Grant could be the first manager in Premier to face exit door. Skipper and main man at the back line, Matthew Upson, should return to the side. West Ham are without an away win in the league since the first day of last season.

 

Situation guarantees a deadly serious approach from United. Proud is damaged, Chelsea are on the top and no European games for a while. I predict a high scoring victory.

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Bet: Man Utd -2ah 
Odd: 1.79 Canbet
Stake: 9/10
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One more probably.
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Millwall - Coventry

Millwall started the returning campaign in a great manner. Defeated in the first round Bristol City on the road (3-0) and home win vs. ex-Premier Hull (4-0). Then scored on Elland Road (Leeds), but managed to concede three times. However, they bounced back in Carling and defeated Premier contender ‘Boro 2-1 (that was 4th win in five matches). They made a fortress of home ground and The Den is not a place where other teams like to go. Boss Kenny Jackett will probably set an unchanged squad. Only absentees are defender Tony Craig and striker Shaun Batt.

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Coventry also made an encouraging start. Two home wins (Portsmouth 2-0 and Derby 2-1) and away draw (Watford 2-2). Against Watford came back from 2 goals down, but against Derby were also struggling and could have lost as well. As always, their main problem is games on the road where collect much less points. For this game, boss Aidy Boothroyd can not count on one important player, striker Lucas Jutkiewicz. Although Coventry are still unbeaten, they haven’t won last six away games (3 draws and 3 lost).

 

As long as Millwall can smell Premiership, they’ll be very strong and dangerous. Especially at the Den (last season, in League One, just a single defeat). Coventry are a decent side, they will probably finish in the top side of the table, maybe even make a threat for a play-off spot, but Millwall away is simply too much. Home win.

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Bet: Millwall to win

Odd: 2.00 Interwetten

Stake: 7/10

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More will follow...

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Tuesday result and statistic update

88th minute shocker... I'm still green.

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Brentford - Hull City 2-1 LOSS

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Statistic:

Profit: +7.62

Yield: +9.13%

See all bets

Brentford – Hull City

Brentford started campaign in League One with one draw and two defeats in opening three rounds (good result vs. Swindon last weekend, 1-1 away). In the first round, they defeated League Two side, Cheltenham, 2-1 at home. The Bees don’t have so bright history in Carling Cup as they have not reached round three for 19 years. I think more important for them would be to keep the players fit than to try to boost self confidence tonight. However, striker Carl Cort and winger Sam Wood are injury doubts. Signing from Leicester, midfielder Nicky Adams, could have his debut.

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Hull relegated from Premier, but managed to keep majority of the team from previous season. However, thankfully to the decent amount of arrogance already faced a tough life in the second tier (Millwall 0-4). New signing is Slovenian international, Robert Koren, who already made his debut in last round. I expect him to play again, to get used with the new team mates. Also considering news from Hull camp, they should have a strong line-up. Striker, Craig Fagan, will have to wait for his debut as he has a groin problem. If they qualify, it will be for the 4th time in five seasons.

 

I’m well surprised with these odds on Hull. Big difference in quality should be enough for an away win.

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Bet: Hull -0.25ah

Odd: 2.04 188bet

Stake: 7/10

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Probably one more before kick-off.

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Saturday's results

Bristol City were a shocker, but good day after all. Hope you enjoy.

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Sheffield Wednesday - Brighton  1-0 WON

Bristol City - Barnsley  3-3 LOSS

Birmingham - Blackburn  2-1 WON

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Statistic:

Profit: +14.62

Yield: +19.11%

See all bets

Birmingham - Blackburn

Birmingham noticed a great season in their Premier League debut. Especially were good at their home soil when they had just 2 defeats (Villa and Bolton, both in September). Their main problem was limited number of players and as a consequence a big injury list through the season. They haven’t brought too many players and will suffer because of that, but no injury problems right now. New man is 202cm striker Nikola Zigic. I’m very suspicious about his scoring abilities, but his contribution will be to tight central defenders for himself and to allow Jerome to “run around” and some run on the flanks. Birmingham are unbeaten in their last 15 games and defeated Blackburn in last five at St Andrew's.

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Rovers started the season with surprising (but, very lucky at the same time) home win over Everton 1-0. Personally, don’t have too much sympathy for their playing potential. Big Sam led them to 10^th place last season and I would be really shocked to see them higher than that. Also they had a terrible away record last season, won just 3 games of 19 and scored only 13 goals! Key man David Dunn is injured, as well as another midfielder Vince Grella.

 

I've been thinking a lot about this one and can not fully exclude a possibility of a draw. Expect a tight game and home win, but will make a limitation.

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Bet: Birmingham -0.25

Odd: 2.03  Pinnacle

Stake: 7/10

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Bristol City – Barnsley

Season of great expectations started as a nightmare for City. First were trashed at home soil by Millwall (0-3), then maybe even bigger shock was when Steve Coppell left the club. Ex care-taker (now should be permanent boss), Billy Sharp, took the charge and seems managed to stabilize the club. They were good on the road vs. Doncaster and missed to win thankfully to additional time penalty (1-1). Big injury list has been decreasing. Defender Carey is back in the contention, but key man Nicky Maynard is out, as well as defender Kalifa Cisse. The Robins made a double last year against Barnsley and won 4 of their 5 last meetings.

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Barnsley did defeat Palace in the previous round (at home 1-0), but still have big problems with scoring. Even that one was an own goal. Departure of their key striker Daniel Bogdanovic (to Sheff.Utd.) seems to be a bigger blow than they expected. Beside a netting problem, they have a terrible record away from home. Barnsley haven’t won on the road for six months (at Ashton Gate for 17 years). The Tykes will be without two midfielders (both new signings) Jim O'Brien and Goran Lovre.

 

If home side wants to carry high ambitions (in my opinion City could be fighting for a play-off), they simply have to win games like Barnsley at home.

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Bet: Bristol City -0.5ah

Odd: 2.03 188bet

Stake: 7/10

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Sheff Wed – Brighton

Wednesday should be main contender for direct promotion from League One and opening two rounds just confirmed my opinion. In the first round defeated Dag&Red 2-0, but should have scored few times more. Only weakness so far, was visible in the first half of second game (Colchester, 1-1 away). Manager Alan Irvine changed his 4-3-3 formation and they were outplayed. In the 2^nd half sent Mellor on pitch and got an equalizer from him. Mellor’s fitness is improving and with Morrison and Tudgay makes a killing trio. However two missings for the Owls, winger Jermaine Johnson and midfielder Tommy Miller.

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Brighton made a very good start of campaign. In the opening day, a great victory away to Swindon (2-1). Looked good as well in the second game dominating against Rochdale, but red card spoiled their plans and a draw at the end. However, Gus Poyet lads should be in the top half of the table at the end of season and no one will take them lightly. They’ll be without 3 important players. Defender Gordon Greer and midfielder Matt Sparrow are suspended, while another midfielder Alan Navarro is injured and will miss the game.

 

Wednesday, in my opinion, have better team than they had in Championship last year. I see them losing points in games where underestimate the opponents. Maybe it looks like a paradox, but Brighton’s seriousness will pull out the best from Wednesday. Home win.

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Bet: Sheff.Wed. -0.5ah

Odd: 1.93 Pinnacle

Stake: 8/10

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More to follow...

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Man Utd - Newcastle

Personally, I can’t see any value in the offered odds. It’s the opening game and I wouldn’t take Community shield (or friendlies) result too serious. And to be honest, I have no idea what to expect from Newcastle this season. They should avoid relegation, but their capabilities are unknown for me. United are slow starters, same manager through the years and same pattern. They won just one of previous 3 opening games (Birmingham last year, 1-0 at home), other 2 finished with a draws (2008.- Newcastle 1-1 and 2007.- Reading 0-0). So, three unders. Taking some high handicap (-1.75 valued 1.91, or over 2.5 at 1.60) would be like a coin flip. Doesn’t worth for me. NO BET.

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Saturday's results

Small loss yesterday, not good. Balance is positive, however.

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Millwall - Hull City 4-0  WIN

Huddersfield - Tranmere 0-0 LOSE

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Statistic:

Profit: +3.37

Yield: +6.18

See all bets

Huddersfield Town - Tranmere Rovers

Huddersfield have excellent infrastructure, more than good team for this level of competition, but always stay short for a one step. In my opinion, they’re in top 3 teams this season (beside Sheff.Wed. and S’ton) and maybe this time they can make a serious campaign for a direct promotion. The crucial thing there should be a good start. They hammered Notts County in the first round, 3-0 on the road and also away, defeated Carlisle in the Cup 1-0. At their home, Huddersfield don’t have a mercy. Last season, just one defeat in whole season (14 wins) and goal difference +30. Manager Lee Clark has no injury concerns and will probably name the same squad from the 1^st round.

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Rovers are, in my opinion, main contenders for moving down. Last season were only one point above the line and had a terrible away record with just three wins out of 23 games (defeated were bottom sides Gillingham, Stockport and Wycombe) and scored only 15 goals (conceded 40)! WBA loan signing, Kayleden Brown, could have his debut, but defenders Broomes and Cathalina are out. Midfielders Taylor and Mahon are long term absentees. First round defeat, on the road vs. Oldham 1-2, probably announced a start of a season of struggling for the Rovers.

 

Huddersfield are far above today’s opponent and I could see a goal fiesta here. My only limitation is a possibility to take them easily, although Tranmere’s Cup win over Walsall calls on caution. But with any attitude, they should win this comfortably.

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Bet: Huddersfield -1ah

Odd: 1.81 Pinnacle

Stake: 8/10

Millwall – Hull City

Millwall celebrated a come back to the second tier with a trashing of Bristol City, away (3-0). Ok there’s a fact City were without a bunch of regular players, but they’re also tipped as a contender for a play-off. Boss Jackett has a team that looks like entity, hard working side that rarely waste the points. Especially at the Den where they won 10 of last 11 games and in whole previous season (season in League One though) lost just once (in last November)! No injury concerns for Jackett as he has again striker Steve Morison and midfielder Darren Carter after international duty and a suspension. After slight injuries, Liam Trotter and Jimmy Abdou are back in contention as well.

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Hull are tipped as one of the strongest team in Championship and they started well beating Swans 2-0. Nigel Pearson has a decent player for the second tier, but first problem is his key man, Jimmy Bullard, who doesn’t seem interested in playing for Hull any more. Other, probably bigger problem, is their away shape. Last season they were, only team without a win in Premier (6 draws, 13 defeats), in total 24 away league games without a win! Also, their only victory in 17 visits to Millwall was a 1-0 win in the old Second Division in August 1986. Promoted teams have a “first season” syndrome, at demoted teams symptoms are opposite. This could be a painful waking up and crash with the second level reality.

 

Lions surely like to look at themselves at 2nd spot. They have never stopped to dream about Premier and they’ll be putting maximum effort as long as their dream last. I expect a tight game, elbow in the favorite’s teeth  and 1-0 home win.

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Bet: Millwall 0.0ah

Odd: 1.84 188bet

Stake: 8/10

Wednesday's result

Cardiff - Burton 1-1 (4-1 AET)  LOST

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The day of break, will be back soon. 

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Statistic:

Profit: +4.65

Yield: +12.08

See all bets

Cardiff - Burton

Cardiff started new campaign with a home draw against Sheff.Utd. (1-1). They can be a little bit disappointed as there was a one way traffic when Utd. got a red card. Defence line isn’t still an iron one, but attacking force is great. For tonight’s game Dave Jones can’t rotate players too much from a simply reason, due to recent transfer embargo he doesn’t have enough players for it! Against Blades, only 4 players were substitutes. Cardiff passed the first round in all but one of the last 8 years and have reached the third round in each of the last 3 seasons. Goalie Tom Heaton will replace injured David Marshall, defender Kevin McNaughton is in doubt and new on-loan signing Seyi Olofinjana won’t be involved.

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Burton is an average League Two side, last season they finished 13^th. Interesting fact is they conceded 71 goals in 46 games which is 3^rd highest number in the league (scored the same number though). Weak defence and attacking approach surely isn’t a way how any team should face Cardiff away. Cup history isn’t bright, as well. Just one appearing, last year and disaster at Reading 1-5. Burton also have one game in the Johnstone's Paint Trophy and lost against Chesterfield with the same result. Defender Darren Moore is injured and probably won’t be risked, the same situation is with the right-back Andrew Corbett. Midfielder Jacques Maghoma is away on international duty with DR Congo.

 

I expect a strong eleven from Dave Jones and have an impression players feel a little bit frustrated after missed to score few more times against Blades at Sunday. This is a perfect opponent to heal their complexes. Chopra (I expect him to start) would like to go. Good, this is a great chance for him to show some skills to the visiting scouts. Against Burton’s defence, he should run the riot.

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Bet: Cardiff -1.25

Odd: 1.95 bet365

Stake: 7/10

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Gamble: Chopra to score hat-trick

Odd: 19.00 bet365

Stake: 0.5/10

Tuesday's results and two announcements

Southampton - Bournemouth  2-0 WON

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MK Dons - Dag & Red  2-1 1/2 WON

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Statistic:

Profit: +12.15

Yield: +39.19%

See all the details about the bets

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I: I was trying to find a service that could guarantee for my bets and statistic. Without too much success as all of them require some decent additional effort and I'm not in the mood for that. So, here's a deal. I won't be editing posts with the bets (results will be published in a new one). Every bet has its post and posting time is before a game. If you aren't sure about my honesty, Google don't lie. : ) 

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II: Live bets are important part. Mainly, I use it to edge my bets. I'll be posting it in the chat box, including odds and stake. If you follow some my bet, be here during the game and see what and when to bet. Remaining of these bets depends from your feedback. No feedback for a while would mean there's no interest and I'll stop publish that.

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Make your e-mail subscription (below the chat box) and get my picks directly in your mail box.

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I really appreciate any feedback that I get. You have my e-mail, chat and comments. Suggestions, ideas, what you like, what you don't, opinion about some bet... Help me to make this blog even better.

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Lots of friendlies tonight. My focus will be another two games of Carling Cup. Will make a closer view and post a bet(s) if there's any.

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August is always a tough month, this is a great start of the season. Hope you followers enjoy.

Thanks for the visiting and good luck,

Dule

MK Dons – Dag & Red

Dons made a good start of the season with a win on the road, against decent Walsall side (2-1). New boss, Karl Robinson, will have his debut in front the home fans. He’ll also have a task to make first home win after 5 months. He stated that financial benefits will be a strong reason to try to progress as far as possible. He’ll be without suspended defender Mat Doumbe, but important midfielder Peter Leven has served his ban and returns to the squad. Gary MacKenzie could have his debut. Dons won all three games against tonight’s opponent.

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Dagenham are newly promoted side and already showed that avoiding relegation will be a hard task. They lost at the opening day against Wednesday 0-2, but disturbing is they didn’t look even competitive and could have conceded few more without any threat in front Wed.’s goal. They’ll probably be less focused here as their main target is league games and to keep all players fit. Boss John Still will probably rest his top striker Paul Benson, who has been carrying an ankle injury. They noticed defeats in all three attempts to pass the first round.

 

Dons looked impressive in the first round. They play at home ground, new boss has debut in front the fans, he’ll put out a strong team and I think they won’t be lacking in motivation. Dons should win this comfortably.

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Bet: MK Dons -0.75ah

Odd: 1.98 bet365

Stake: 7/10

Southampton - Bournemouth

Differently from previous season when they were playing without too much pressure (thankfully to 10 points penalty) and making some very good results, in this one Saints are one of the two main contenders for a direct promotion. They’ve noticed a bad start (0-1 at home, Plymouth), missing a lot of chances to score. Top scorer, Rickie Lambert, will miss another game, but attacking midfielder, Adam Lallana (20 goals in all competitions, last season), will start. Also, tonight’s opponent is local rival, from the same league and there shouldn’t be any under estimation. As I posted, Saints rarely lose in this round.

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Bournemouth progressed to the third tier and they’ll surely have a tough season. They’ve made some big signings (big for League One) that should allow them to be competitive. However they lost at South London vs. Charlton (which was expected), but the failure in the first home game (another promotion contender - Peterborough) could bring a pressure and problems. The biggest problem in League Two campaign was a limited number of players and squad depth. Simply, I think they have more important things to think about. Also, Bournemouth have lost in the first round four seasons in a row. Boss Eddie Howe has almost all squad available. Midfielder Hollands and striker Symes are not fully fit and they’ll take some part in the game, more likely than to start.

 

Saints need to bounce back to return the self confidence (before Plymouth, lost at home vs. Reading 2-4 in pre-season). I think St Mary's will be a hard place to go this season, expect a strong display from home side and few goals.

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Bet: Southampton -1 ah

Odd: 2.05 Bet365

Stake: 8/10

Carling Cup 10-11.08.

Here’s some interesting infos about games tonight. It could help if you already have some opinion. Otherwise, could be confusing. Enjoy.

My pick(s) will follow.

 

Plymouth have gone out in the first round in 15 of the last 17 years, including the last two.

Aldershot have lost their last four first-round ties in this competition.

Barnsley have not won a competitive home game since 16 March (v Nottingham Forest).

Rochdale have only qualified for the second round once in their last eight attempts. They have lost last five away matches, scoring just one goal.

Bradford have lost at this stage in each of the last four years. They are chasing a fourth successive home win.

Forest are unbeaten in seven matches against the Bradford (W5, D2).

Since returning to the Football League, Carlisle have only been knocked out of the League Cup in the first round once (against Burnley in 2005).

Huddersfield have lost their last three League Cup ties away from home.

Chesterfield have only won one of their last seven first-round ties in this tournament.

Boro have won only one of their last nine away games.

Derby have lost their opening League Cup game in five of the last seven seasons.

Since returning to the Football League in 2003, Doncaster have only failed to progress beyond the first round once (losing to Notts County in 2008).

Accrington have never won a League Cup tie away from home. This is Accrington's fifth season in the League Cup. They are aiming to reach the second round for the third time. Nottingham Forest (2006) and Walsall (2009) are the only clubs Stanley have knocked out of the competition in their history.

It is five months since the MK Dons last recorded a home victory: 3-1 against Swindon in League One on 9 March.

Dagenham & Redbridge are seeking a first-ever League Cup victory.(3 defeats,so far)

Rotherham have fallen at the first-round hurdle only once in nine years. They knocked out Sheffield Wednesday, Wolves and Southampton in reaching the fourth round in the season before last, and Derby in the first round last season.

Charlton have not won or scored in this competition for three years.

Southampton have only ever been eliminated in the first round of the competition twice (1961 and 2007).

Bournemouth have lost in the first round four seasons in a row.

Stockport have been knocked out in the first round of the League Cup in five of the last six years.

Wycombe have not managed to win a single match in the League Cup since their club record run in 2006/07 when they made the last four. The Chairboys have lost three of their last four League Cup matches by 4-0 margins, including the last two.

Saturday's results

Considering shocks yesterday, I should be satisfied these games. However, I could buy a house from a money that Scunthorpe have burnt in past 2 years.

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Reading - Scunthorpe 1-2  LOST

Sheffield Wednesday - Dag & Red 2-0 WON

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Statistics:

Yield: +2%

Profit: +0.32

See all bets

Sheff. Wed. - Dag & Red

Wednesday should be (beside Southampton) the main contender for winning the league. They’ve made some changes in the squad. Strikers Leon Clarke and Francis Jeffers and goalie Lee Grant left the club, but management brought some very quality replacements. Striker Mellor and midfielder Sedgwick from Preston, ex Coventry top striker Clinton Morrison and former Man City and England Under-21 goalkeeper Nicky Weaver. Boss Irvine came too late to clean all the mess that Laws left in the club, but this season Wednesday with players like Tudgay, Purse, O'Connor, Miller, Johnson (beside mentioned four) should be too much for the rest of the league. Also, important thing is they made an arrangement with bank about financial debt and won’t be forced to sell the best players. Only concern for today’s game is mentioned winger Jermaine Johnson who is battling to overcome a knee injury.

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After securing promotion to the third tier for the first time by winning last season's play-off final, Dagenham became the bookmakers' favorites for relegation. Manager John Still worked wonders in getting them up, but if he can keep them there it will be a real miracle. Team simply has a limited potential and with average home attendance that rarely get above 2.000, they’ll be hardly competitive on this level. Dagenham have some doubts over defenders Scott Doe and Abu Ogogo who picked up knocks in pre-season, while striker Paul Benson is expected to start.

 

Home side is a main contender for the top and they look even stronger than in previous season. It’s always risky to take handicap in the first round, but beside obvious class difference, importance of a good start and packed Hillsborough should guarantee a convincing win. 2-0, or 3-0 correct score.

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Pick: Sheff.Wed. -1ah

Stake: 8/10

Odd: 2.04 Pinnacle 

Reading - Scunthorpe

Reading have been significantly improving under Brian McDermott (in charge since last December). In pre-season, they defeated Wolves 2-1 and S’ton on the road 4-2 and raised self confidence. Squad’s quality should guarantee a fight for a play-off. Federici is, in my opinion, best goalie in the second tier. Sigurdsson scored a bunch (think 17) from midfield role, Simon Church and Shane Long have a future in Premier as well as few more players. McDermott worries about the fitness of some players. Ingimarsson, Kebe and Noel Hunt should be fit, Chris Armstrong is out.

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Scunny’s survival from previous season was a miracle, not surprise. But, problem is they lost attacking duo Paul Hayes (went to Preston) and their talisman Gary Hooper (Celtic) who were keeping them over the line. There’s still enough time to hire some players, but at this moment they’re contender number one to relegate. Their hope, as always, will be home turf Glanford Park. Last season, they collected only 15 points on the road of 23 games (16 defeats)! Skipper and right back Cliffe Byrne will probably miss this one, along with new loan signing Nolan.

 

Reading probably couldn’t wish a better rival for the season opener. Scunny will probably try to defend with all players waiting for set-pieces (as they were doing whole last season), but when they concede first the game will be over. I see a few goals margin.

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Bet: Reading -1ah

Stake: 8/10

Odd: 1.93 Pinnacle

It starts finally – English football 6-8.08.

First round in Championship will maybe bring a brighter picture about teams’ capabilities this season. Sure thing is, this campaign will be closer than usual. Certainly 10 clubs will compete for promotion. Public’s favorite is ‘Boro. They’ve brought 3 players from Old-firm (critics called them Scottish rejects) who should be a class above second tier. Adding on that a squad from previous season, ‘Boro really look like the most serious contender for a spot number 1. Personally, I dislike Strachan but if I have to choose I’d say Middlesbrough to win a league. Forest haven’t made any significant signing and I’m not sure can they make one step more from last season’s play-off. Burnley sold Steven Fletcher to Wolves for £6.5m which should allow them some new signings. Without Coyle as a manager they’re not the same, but possess enough quality for play-of at least. Hull are a mystery for me and their achievement depends from Jimmy Bullard’s idea where to play this season. Leicester should repeat (at least) last season success and finish in the play-off zone. This time with Sousa (ex-Swansea) as manager, instead Pearson (at Hull). Next contender is Reading. Strong finish of the previous season was extended with more than decent friendlies. They have enough potential for play-off, for sure. QPR as always spent a lot. This time, difference is Nigel Warnock (ex C.Palace) who should bring more than necessary level of discipline in the dressing room. That’s seven clubs for six places. Bristol City, Leeds, Portsmouth and Sheffield United will try to ruin their plans. Main contenders for relegation are Watford and good old Scunny (this time without Hooper and Hayes).

 

In League One, top rated sides are Sheffield Wednesday and Southampton. Wednesday have made few impressive signings, including last one - Clinton Morrison (Coventry). Southampton will be very strong again, but this time they’ll be feeling a huge pressure to get something (differently from previous season, after 10 points penalty). My third favorite is Huddersfield. They’ve invest a lot, but in previous seasons they didn’t have enough self-confidence and winning mentality. This season could be their. This three sides will decide a champion. For a play-off spot will compete relegated Plymouth and Peterborough, Brighton, Leyton and Charlton. Last mentioned team is, in my opinion, overrated and don’t expect too much from them. It won’t be less interesting at the bottom. Main contender for relegation should be Tranmere.

 

Choosing a winner in the first round is like a walking through the mine field, but think I have two for now. Analyzes will follow.

Premier League Top Scorer – Football Betting Odds and Tips

In terms of individual success, it’s every striker’s dream to become the Premier League’s Top Scorer. Let’s take a look at the betting odds and hopefully select some profitable football tips.

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Premier League Top Scorer

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The Barclays Golden Boot is awarded to the footballer who accumulates the most goals in any given league campaign. Previous winners include Alan Shearer, Michael Owen, Cristiano Ronaldo and four-time-winner Thierry Henry.

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Manchester United-striker Wayne Rooney heads the betting market at 9/2 along with World Cup-winner Fernando Torres. Liverpool-born Rooney notched up 26 goals in the league last season while Torres scored an impressive 18 league goals from just twenty-two appearances, but worryingly, both players failed to find the net in the World Cup Finals.

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Last year’s Premier League Top Scorer was Didier Drogba, who is available in the betting at 11/2. Now a two-time-winner of the Golden Boot, Drogba fired 29 goals from thirty-two appearances last season. Although temperamental, the 32-year-old Ivorian striker has fantastic awareness, control and chemistry with his teammates. Drogba is also an immense figure on the football field, to the point that he gives Chelsea a psychological advantage over the opposition. But, at odds of 11/2, I’m swerving the Chelsea striker. Any niggling injuries could see the ageing Drogba sidelined for sustained periods throughout the Premier League campaign.

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Arsenal forward Robin van Persie is next in the betting at 10/1. Despite being sidelined for most of the season, the Dutchman netted 9 times for The Gunners last term. He is more accustomed with assisting his teammates with scoring opportunities so for that reason alone he represents no value at the current odds. New Arsenal signing Marouane Chamakh will likely partner van Persie up front and the Morrocan, who netted 56 goals for Bordeaux, is priced at 33/1 to be leading scorer in this season’s Premier League.

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Big-spending Manchester City will likely start the league season with the strike partnership of Carlos Tevez and Emmanuel Adebayor. The Argentinian is priced at 12/1 while the former Arsenal striker is available at an eye-catching 25/1. City are likely to offload Welsh international Craig Bellamy, but if he remains at the City of Manchester Stadium, he is currently available at 50/1 to become the Premier League’s Top Scorer.

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Tottenham’s Jermaine Defoe is available at 18/1 in the betting. The England striker found the net 18 times in the league last season and should be be noted for the shortlist. Defoe’s club and international teammate Peter Crouch is priced at 40/1 while Russian frontman Roman Pavlyuchenko is 66/1. Out-of-favour striker Robbie Keane isn’t available in the betting but following extensive pre-season training, the Irishman looks in tip-top shape and could spring a surprise this season at large betting odds.

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Midfield maestro’s Frank Lampard, 25/1, Steven Gerrard 30/1, Cesc Fabregas 33/1 and Tim Cahill 80/1 will be popular with the betting public while Chelsea’s ticking time-bomb Nicolas Anelka 20/1 seems likely to be opposed following his foolish antics during this summer’s World Cup. Distressed Sunderland striker Darren Bent is available at 18/1 while the relaxed, yet sloppy Manchester United striker Dimitar Berbatov is priced at 40/1. Of the remaining footballers in the betting for the Premier League Top Scorer, Louis Saha 40/1, and Hugo Rodellega 66/1 both stand out as decent betting propositions.

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Betting Tip: Wayne Rooney 9/2

Frank Lampard scored 22 goals in the Premier League last season and at 25/1 he may represent a small bit of value against those at the head of the betting, but this year I expect more fireworks from Manchester United striker Wayne Rooney. Following the departure of Cristiano Ronaldo to Real Madrid, 24-year-old Rooney revelled in his more advanced role last season, notching up an impressive tally of 26 league goals. Once again he will be United’s highest goalscorer and as he continues his education higher up the pitch, I expect Wayne Rooney to be crowned Premier League Top Scorer.

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See all the odds.

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