01.01. - three bets

Really not in the mood to type...


Tottenham - Fulham 
Bet: Tottenham -1ah
Odd: 1.82 Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10


Hull - Leicester
Bet: Hull 0.0
Odd: 1.99 188bet
Stake: 9/10




Nottingham Forest - Barnsley
Bet: Nott Forest -0.75
Odd: 1.80 StanJames
Stake: 8/10

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Results, statistic and New Year

Best wishes, lads!

WBA- Blackburn 1-3 LOST
Norwich - Sheff Utd 4-2 WON

Updated statistic and list of bets.

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Promised previews

So, here’re brief analyzes.

WBA - Blackburn

The hosts are probably the most underrated side in Premier. They don’t play bad at all, at Bolton created plenty of chances to score. Brunt hit the post at 0-1 and they lost at the end. Bad news is (only one bad)  mentioned Brunt is suspended due to fifth booking.
Hard times for Blackburn, thankfully to Indian owners. Allardyce’s departure was a big shock to the players and they responded badly with one point from two home games. Even with him, their away record was very bad. Best defender Samba said he wants to leave the club and Steve Kean has removed him from the squad! Maybe it’s too early for big conclusions, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Rovers relegated at the end. 
Home win.

Norwich – Sheff Utd

Norwich are a decent side, especially at home and important for this game is they didn’t play for a Boxing Day. Only defeat in last eight games was at home vs. Pompey that media called a robbery. Defender Leon Barnett is suspended, while right back Russel Martin and midfielder Wes Hoolahan are in doubt. Norwich also have very good record against United at home as they won in six of last seven games (five with a goal margin).
United not just played a game two days ago, but also suffered a shocking home defeat against Hull (conceded in additional time). I am not sure how they can recover physically and mentally. Besides that, Blades already lost every credibility as play-off contender and I can’t see them higher than middle of the table. 
Another home win.

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Norwich - Sheff Utd

Again, just a pick.
Later I'll wrote explanations for both games. So if you're interested in reasoning, come back little later. Cheers.


Bet: Norwich -0.5
Odd: 1.91 Canbet
Stake: 8/10


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WBA - Blackburn

Early pick as the odds are in a serious drop.
I will write few words tomorrow. And probably one more game.

Bet: WBA -0.5
Odd: 1.92 Betsson
Stake: 7/10


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Sunday's results and statistic update

There was one tradition that did last 79 years. Then I decided to bet on it...
Profit, however.

Barnsley - Burnley 1-2 LOST
Blackburn - Stoke 0-2 WON
Newcastle - Man City 1-3 WON

Updated statistic and list of bets.

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Newcastle - Man City

No preview, just pick. Sixth time on City...

Bet: Man City -0.25
Odd: 2.04 188bet
Stake: 8/10


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Blackburn - Stoke

Not long time ago, he was talking how he deserves to lead some of the biggest European clubs. Now Big Sam has an opportunity to look for a better job. Seriously, by sacking Allardyce Indian owners showed the serious lack of the sense. Beside he was widely respected in the club, December with full schedule is probably the worst time to try finding a new manager. And I’m not really sure what they expect from only decent players. Spot for Europe? However, caretaker Steve Kean has become a manager (at least) till the end of the season. Skipper, Chris Samba, is out. Officially because the ankle knock, but there’re some rumours he refuses to play (‘cause the ex-manager).

Stoke are not a kind of good travellers, but recent situation has increased their chances at Ewood. Investments during the summer provided new quality to the squad and I expected more from them this season. Shocking defeat at home vs. Blackpool ended a run of six games without defeat. They look very good in the air and missing of Samba could give them supremacy after the set-pieces.

I think odds have been set wrong, here. 3.50 for away win is clear underestimating in my opinion. I expect a tough battle and can’t really see home win. Some advantage to Stoke, 1-2 correct score. C'mon you red-whites!

Bet: Stoke +0.25
Odd: 1.91 Expekt
Stake: 8/10


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Barnsley - Burnley

Interesting odds for this game. Barnsley, beside the decent home record through the seasons, are performing well recently. They have four wins of last five encounters (one draw) and kept a clean sheet in last three. They haven’t lost on Boxing Day since 2002. Only problem is missing of striker Gary O’Connor whose loan deal has expired.
Burnley, oppositely from the hosts, have a pretty miserable record on the road. This season it’s not better as they’re the only club that hasn’t noticed away win (6 draws and 3 defeats). They’ve conceded in every of last eight games and haven’t won at Boxing Day since 2005. And Oakwell is the hell place for the Clarets as they haven’t won there for about 79 years (last time it was in April 1932)!
I see this bet as a pure logic. 2-0 correct score.

Bet: Barnsley 0.0
Odd: 1.98 188 bet
Stake: 9/10


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Latest results and statistic update

Manchester United - Arsenal 1-0 WON
Birmingham - Newcastle PP
Leeds - QPR 2-0 LOST
Ipswich - Leicester 3-0 LOST 

Updated statistic and list of bets.


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Ipswich - Leicester

No time for a preview. Game is on.

Bet: Leicester
Odd: 1.80 188 bet
Stake: 9/10


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Leeds - QPR

Interesting odds for goals. Bookies based them on QPR, as Rangers conceded only 12 goals in past 20 games (needless to say the lowest number in division), while on the road allowed only five (lowest again). On the other hand, they haven’t kept a clean sheet in last three encounters and in London derby vs. Watford conceded three times (first loss this season).
Situation with Leeds is completely opposite. Championship games involving Leeds have produced 72 goals (more than any other club). They also have the worst home record, conceded shocking 20 goals in 10 games at Elland Road. Neil Warnock will surely try to use it. Home boss, Grayson, insists on attacking style (interesting fact is they hit the woodwork 15 times!) that should erase defensive errors. They never surrender and won amazing 14 points from matches in which they were behind.
I think this could be the first away defeat for QPR. On the other hand under soil heating at Elland is working perfectly and I can’t see any obstacle why we shouldn’t watch an open game. Becchio against Taarabt. This will be great. 2-1 correct score.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 2.10 Pinnacle, William Hill
Stake: 7/10


I hate snow! Liverpool should have been a bet of the day. Portsmouth and Cardiff... arghhh 

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Birmingham - Newcastle

Generous price here on a home side. Brum are one of very few sides that still play old fashioned English football with lots of running, punching and crossing from the wing. They’re physically strong and very good in the air. It’s a good thing for this game as they should be able to cope with Carroll in front the goal and with Nolan/Barton in midfield. Brum have lost just one game of their last 23 matches at St Andrew’s in Premier. No injury concerns for McLeish.

I’m not sure what the season expectations of Newcastle’s board are when they sacked Chris Hughton. Spot for European competition? Anyway, Pardew started great with a win over Liverpool in previous round. However, it should be noticed for the record they scored after every of three goal attempts. The Toon is on very good 8th place and I don’t think they’ll climb higher than that. I expect a kind of warm-cold performances from them through the season (with more warm at home) and middle of the table at the end.

I’m giving a significant advantage to the home side, but considering Birmingham as draw specialists (9 of 17 games this season!) and the fact their last five games at St Andrew’s vs. Toon ended on the same way, I can’t exclude a possibility of another draw (how could I?). So, dnb option for me. Close game and Brum by one.

Bet: Birmingham 0.0
Odd: 1.85 188 bet
Stake: 8/10


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Value Betting - Guide for Beginners

I wrote an article for www.superbetting.com about value betting. It should be useful for beginners, but interesting for everyone. Enjoy...

Please, be free to comment it.

Here’s the original address of the article:
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VALUE BETTING - GUIDE FOR BEGINNERS

Value betting is pretty new concept based on the assumption some teams are overpriced or underpriced by bookmakers. There are always plenty of arguing between supporters and opponents of this concept. One side says betting on unfair prices is nothing else than giving your hard earned money directly into bookies’ full pockets. Other group points irrelevance of 0.05-0.10 odds difference and states that human brain is not a Deep Blue computer to make a difference between 65% and 66% (for example) possibility of winning. So, which group is right?
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Understanding the concept
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To understand the basic concept of value betting, first you must understand how betting market works in general. Probably the best example for explanation is tossing of a coin. There are always two possible outcomes - heads and tails. So, there is 50% of probability for both. Converting that in odds, we get 2.00 (I’ll use decimal odds format) and that would be a fair odd. If you toss a coin 1000 times, you will get 500 times each of two outcomes. Maybe few times less or more than that, but your balance would be around zero. Now imagine two guys who make an online bet and put $50 dollars on it, both. One of them loses $50, other wins $100? Well, no. In that case bookmaker would not get anything and their existence is based on profit (huge profit, that is why their number is countless nowadays). It is not a steal (not yet, at least), that’s how the whole industry works. So they won’t offer 2.00, but 1.90 (for example). New situation is next, one bettor will lost $50, other will get $95 and bookie will have guaranteed $5 of each bet. Now, let’s imagine 1000 bets. You will invest $50.000 and as it’s predictable you will win 500 times. But instead $50 (single bet) x 2.00 (fair odd) x 500 (number of winning bets) = $50.000 (zero profit), you’ll get only 50 x 1.90 (market odd) x 500 = $47.500! Bookmaker’s services, remember? What about if some bookie, because the lack of competition, impudently offers you 1.85 for the same bet? Short answer, he will get additional $1.250 bonus for the services (50 x 1.85 x 500 = 46.250)! If you don’t care about 0.05 difference (despite it looks so irrelevant), you will be making an extra tip to the bookie.

How it really works?

Now, I'll convert this into real betting. What is a basketball spread betting (or Asian handicaps in football) other than two outcomes with same possibility? Bookmakers are hiring the best experts to make basketball offer that rates chances of both teams with 50%. Margin, for example, is -5.5 on team A. They will win with 6 or more, or will not. Our fair odd should be 2.00, in reality they are 1.85 - 1.95. If you decide to test your luck in betting for one weekend, it’s not a big deal. If you are in the betting world for few years or more, you would be probably shocked if realize how much money you have wasted just because not paying attention on 0.05 difference. Now, you are starting to scratch your head. On the betting market, 99% of bettors are losing their money and just 1% winning at the long-term. Pay attention where you are placing your bets. Best possible advice is to make several accounts at different books and choose the best odd for every event.

Now I come to the point where supporters and opponents of value betting start clamoring. How to make decision is there any value in some odd and does it worth of a bet?! For this purpose I'll include bets with three possible outcomes, a typical 1X2 betting in football games (as at two outcomes, here is also bookies’ provision deducted from 100%). Let me make one example. In season 2009/10, Chelsea were priced 1.20 at home against Everton (that is usual price for Chelsea at home against any team out of top six). 1.20 odd means there is 83.33% of chance it will be a home win. Chelsea were the strongest team in Premier League, no injuries, no mercy at Stamford Bridge. Everton had long injury list and big crisis in performance and results. So, does it worth of a bet? Opponent of value betting would say it is the easiest and fastest way to make 20% of profit. Safe as in the bank, but you get it for less than two hours! Supporter will ask him: “Would you bet on it if there is 1.01 odd instead 1.20?! One percent is still good for 120 minutes!” Hmm... If you wish to bet on such low odds, you have to be aware of this. Betting on 1.20 actually means you have to make a streak of 5 consecutive wins to avoid loss. Winning bet of $100 stake on 1.20 brings you $20 of profit. If you lose only one of five, you will be in deficit. Now, look at the history of Chelsea - Everton meetings at Stamford Bridge. Last five ended with only two home wins and three draws! Opponent is in trouble and his bank is broke.

Calculating the value

There are many different ways for calculating the value. One group are math experts and use complicated methods for calculation the fair odds. Even I made once a formula for calculation Asian handicaps. After "only" about half an hour, I could tell you is it better to take -0.75 or -1.0 handicap, where's a better value and where bookie made a mistake. All of my methodology crashed like a house of cards when I realized that 5% difference in my assumption about possibility causes changing the “fair odd” for 0.15! If I say there is 60% of possibility Liverpool will defeat Aston Villa at home, odd should be 1.67. With 65%, it should be 1.53! So, how the hell I should know is it 60%, or 65%?! Other group of supporters use statistical methods, based on history results. On that way they calculate possibility of future results and are finding the value. I have not investigated these methods. Football is not the same game like before 20 years, why results should be?

My warmly advice to all beginners is to pay attention on the price at the same way as you do about the outcomes. You are pretty sure Liverpool will defeat Villa? Fine. Now, look at the offer. 1.40? That's pity. Leave it and don’t think about that game again. Continue with the researching and you’ll find another game with acceptable odd. After few years of betting you will get a sense for value and fair odds and your hard work will start to pay off.

Statistic update

After free fall in October and November, my primary target was to stop the losing streak and it has been accomplished so far. December is currently green, but I'd be satisfied with zero at the end of the year (wouldn't be delighted though). Season objective is a positive balance. It won't be easy with -50 units, but I'll be working hard as always.
Once again, thanks for visiting lads.
With a hope in better days,
Dule

Sheff Wed - Bristol Rovers 6-2 WON
Stoke - Blackpool 0-1 LOST
Bristol City - Derby 2-0 WON
Tranmere - Leyton 1-2 LOST
Tottenham - Chelsea 1-1 1/2 WON

Updated statistic and list of bets.

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Man Utd - Arsenal

United maybe haven’t been impressive, but it’s mainly because their away games as they won just once (with six draws)! However, they’re well known slow starters and I think their performances will be only better. At home, they’ve noticed 7 wins and a draw (2-2 vs. WBA) with 24-6 goal difference. Also, I wouldn’t compare CL group games with Premiership. In my opinion only real weakness is position of right-back and Rafael who lacks in experience (and quality, probably). Personally, I’d rather like to see Gary Neville. United have won four of last five competitive games against Arsenal. No injury concerns for Ferguson.

Public opinion is Arsenal are better than ever. Ok. In previous seasons, they wasted enough points to quit the challenge for the title even in this part of the season. However, they’ll face some problems at Old Trafford. They have bad record against top Premiership clubs (especially against Man Utd and Chelsea). My impression is players are too light weighted (great speed though) which makes them physically inferior in tackles and midfield battle. Than defence, that looks really shaky sometimes. Some info says Szczesny, third choice goalkeeper, will have advantage over Fabianski. At the end it’s not the same without Fabregas. Whatever Wenger has been talking, he’s not fit. In last nine visits to Trafford, the Gunners have noticed seven defeats (one draw and one win). 

I was thinking about goals tonight, but Ferguson will probably set 4-5-1 formation (with Rooney on the wing) that should keep the game tight and Gunners far from the goal. United have an obvious aerial superiority and they’ll be very dangerous from set-pieces. I’ll be simple. Home win, Vidic to score, 2-0 correct score.

Bet: Man Utd -0.5
Odd: 1.95 Digibet
Stake: 8/10


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Tottenham - Chelsea

Huge price here, I have to try and let's hope Chelsea will not find the top gear today.

Bet: Tottenham +0.25
Odd: 2.04 188bet
Stake: 7/10


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Tranmere - Leyton Orient

Nothing has changed in my opinion, Tranmere are still contender for relegation. But, they know to keep the game tight and actually they’ve been collecting points lately. Three wins and a defeat in last four (all games ended with 1-0 score line). Midfielder Labadie is suspended, while striker Showunmi is in doubt. Good news is midfielder (skipper and ex Liverpool hope) John Welsh and goalie Nielsen are back in contention.

Leyton are in a good shape as they have no defeat in last seven competitive games (five draws). They got lots of publicity after they mid-week clash and 8-2 (!) win (after extra-time) against Droylsden. However, they had to play 80 minutes with 10 players and 30 min with nine on the field. Beside fatigue, big problem is both central defenders were sent off and are suspended for today’s game.

Offered 2.60 for a home win is too high for me and I see some value in backing home side. However, I couldn’t exclude a possibility of another draw. Dnb option for me.

Bet: Tranmere 0.0
Odd: 1.86 188bet
Stake: 8/10


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Bristol City - Derby

Loud announcements about play-off and promotion turned into nightmare start for the Robins. Epilogue was Steve Coppell got fired before the end of the summer. Keith Millen is doing very good job as club moved away from the relegation zone. Just one defeat in last eight games (away at Leeds, 1-3). They won two last games at home and have scored in every of last nine games. Striker Stead and defender Ribeiro are back in contention, skipper Carey is out.
Derby are in serious down trend. They were flying high, but in my opinion it was just a matter of time when they’ll stop winning. They’re sitting on still high 7th place, but recorded three defeats in last four (fourth game was a win against Scunny). Striker Bueno will probably have some role in this game, but defenders Buxton and Addison are out.
Home side definitely has some unused potential and they're probably continue with climbing on the table. I predict a tough encounter, but see City as winners. 1-0 correct score.

Bet: B.City -0.25
Odd: 2.13 Canbet
Stake: 7/10


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Stoke - Blackpool

There’s nothing that could prove me Stoke should be that short favourite today, at least because Blackpool are too hard to predict. With Stoke’s recent form with three wins and two draws of last five (one draw was impressing vs. Man City at home, other at Wigan), the conclusion is they should win. But at 1.60, I won’t touch it. On the other hand, Stoke score and concede (42 goals in total) more than in previous two seasons. They have more scoring potential than usual and their play is more attacking. Pennant, Wilkinson and Wilson are all available again.
Blackpool are the team with (my honest opinion) the worst defence line in Premiership. They simply cannot keep it tight. Their chance is to score more than opponent.  No fresh injury concerns for Holloway.
I expect an open game and goals. Unfortunately, bookies think the same and offered miserable 1.60 for over. I’ll try with over 2.75.

Bet: Over 2.75
Odd: 1.80 Bet365
Stake: 8/10

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Sheff Wed - Bristol Rovers

I already know on what I’ll bet today. Three bets, maybe even four. Will be posting analyzes one after another, so stay tuned...


Milan Mandaric took the charge at Wednesday. Fans probably aren’t delighted since he’ll get the stadium if club continue with losing money. However, sure thing is players can be focused only on pitch. This makes Wednesday most quality team in the third tier, once again. Only problem is on the position of right-back, since Buxton and Otsemobor are injured. Probably Daniel Jones will fill that position.
Rovers are not the side that like to park the bus in front the goal. They have fully complete rooster which will additionally strengthen their confidence based on the fact they already resisted at last two away games against strong opponents (Brighton and Charlton).
My vote for a home side. Visitors’ confidence and their probably more open game could bring them more balls in the net.

Bet: Sheff Wed -0.75
Odd: 2.06 Canbet
Stake: 8/10


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Manchester United - Valencia

United haven’t impressed in CL games at Old Trafford, this season. One draw 0-0 (vs. Rangers) and one unconvincing win over Turkish side Bursa. They need only a point here for the first spot in the group (which should be important). But, the fact that makes this bet attractive is Utd’s schedule. They didn’t play for the weekend at Blackpool and next game (hard one tough, vs. Arsenal) is at next Monday (range is 16 days). My opinion is Ferguson will name very strong squad for the game (he already made such announcement) to keep the players in shape and to keep winning mentality. Last thing he needs is deja vu of Besiktas in previous season.

I find it hardly to believe Valencia carry any serious hope tonight. With a win they would be first, yes. But it’s easier to believe, they’ve already given up from it. Bunch of players are out of squad. Moya, Navarro, Joaquin, Vicente, Stankevicius, Topal, Manuel Fernandes  and Bruno all stayed at Spain. Boss Emery brought to England goalie Cesar and defender Mathieu, but it does remain to see will they start the game.

I don’t think Utd will gamble with this one and have no problem to accept offered price. Rooney should strive to regain some of the lost confidence (and probably lost nerves with Bervatov’s five hits and all the talks about it) and I expect him on a score sheet. As yesterday, home win is pure logic for me.

Bet: Man Utd -1ah
Odd: 1.98 Canbet
Stake: 8/10


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Results and statistic update

Wigan - Stoke 2-2 DRAW
Leeds - Crystal Palace 2-1 WON
Sunderland - West Ham 1-0 LOST
Liverpool - Aston Villa 3-0 WON

Updated statistic and list of bets.

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Liverpool - Aston Villa

I think Liverpool are in uptrend. They look better on the pitch, Hodgson’s vision should finally be applied and they should start climbing on the table. Four consecutive home wins, three in Premier and Napoli in EL. Despite the defeat, they looked good at White Hart Lane. Lucas and Meireles are compensating Stevie G’s absence very well. Key players were rested from a trip to Romania and only change will be Kyrgiakos who should start instead Jamie Carragher.

Liverpool were one of my favourite clubs, until Houllier became a manager. The ugliest football I had ever seen. Kicking the long balls, Heskey tries to make a header to young Owen and his runs. And these three moves all the game. Simply, I started to be happy whenever Houllier lost the game with this degradation. However, I assume he’ll try to make from Villa something like that. Defensive formation with fast wingers and tall strikers. And that L’pool took bunch of trophies during his era. He’ll also miss his key man, Ashley Young. Agbonlahor and Carew are far shape from previous season. Defence line looks extremely shaky nowadays, since they lost three in a row and conceded at least twice in last five! Villa have the worst league record against top five clubs and have just one win at Anfield from last 17 encounters.

Even without Gerrard (I don’t think Carragher is so big loss), Liverpool should be enough for this Villa. With three points, home side would climb to 8th place and then could start thinking about chasing CL spot. No big philosophy, home win here is a pure logic for me.

Bet: Liverpool -1ah
Odd: 1.95 Betsson
Stake: 8/10


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Sunderland - West Ham

After a sublime performance at Stamford Bridge, Sunderland took only a point from next two games. Draw against Everton at home (2-2) and defeat at Wolves (2-3). They’ve been playing nice to watch football, still without a defeat at home (resisted against Man Utd, Man City and Arsenal) and possess serious attacking power in Bent and Gyan. I was thinking about home win, first. But, here’s the problem. Steve Bruce will be missing both of his first choice centre backs, Michael Turner and Titus Bramble. In a tight game, risk would be bigger. I expect more attacking Sunderland, today. Good thing for Bruce is, another defender John Mensah declared himself fit.

The Hammers defeated Wigan in their make or break game, but shock came after it as they demolished Man Utd in Cup game. They didn’t earn any points on that, but mood in the dressing room is completely different. No reason for a fear at Stadium of Light. They don’t have a single win on the road, but actually like to visit Sunderland’s ground. Six wins there of last eight occasions. Carlton Cole is back with two goals in Cup, with Piquionne should be a real threat to the opposite defence (defence without centre backs). The Hammers have scored in each of their last 15 league games against Sunderland.

In some other moment of the season, I guess Sunderland would be a clear favourite. But today with those injuries and confident West Ham, I think they won’t keep a clean sheet. Whatever aspect of this game I try to analyze, conclusions are the same. Goals, both to score, over.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 2.05 Pinnacle
Stake: 7/10


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Leeds - Crystal Palace

Leeds are doing well in their debuting season in Championship, as they hold 8th place with just point less than 4th Derby. They have very good squad and I can see them in play-off zone at the end (or not so far from that). However, aggressive and attacking style that Simon Grayson carries produced the highest number of goals in whole league (64, 32 for and same against). All but one home game (11 competitive) went in over. Although they have Gunners and FA Cup game on the corner, players are fully motivated (as always under Grayson). No injuries, but one suspension. Defender, Paul Connolly, got his fifth booking in away draw at Reading.

Palace are struggling and will be doing so till the end. It’s not a big mystery about them, they will relegate or finished close of that. They have a combat spirit, fight all 90 minutes, but from the start of a season they’re facing plenty of problems (on pitch and outside of it). Squad potential is limited and I don’t expect any miracle from them. They’re worst travellers with 7 defeats of 9 games and conceded 22 goals in those which is the biggest number in League (total of 35 is only better from Preston). Big boost is, however, return of maybe the best player in Championship - Darren Ambrose. His capability to score and organizing the play will significantly increase Palace’s chances at Elland. Midfielders, Alex Marrow (injury) and Owen Garvan (suspension) are out.

Both sides will fancy their chances. I think Leeds are closer to win, but will hardly keep a clean sheet. Odds for goals look absolutely acceptable. Over for me.
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Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.85 188bet
Stake: 8/10


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Wigan - Stoke

Not too much time for analyze here, as the odds are in a serious drop.
Btw. previous bet was a draw.

Wigan –Stoke City

Two opposite trends here and serious difference in quality. Wigan (although undefeated in last four at home) have been producing poor performances that resulted with three consecutive defeats. They’re also clashed with injuries. Beside they’re lowest scorers in Premier (total of 11 goals), they’ll be without Rodallega and Moses with Di Franco rated 50-50.
Stoke are undefeated in last four games (three wins), where their draw against Man City was especially impressing. They invested lot during the summer, ambitions are high and I expect more from them.
I give a significant advantage to Stoke, but no way I can exclude a possibility of a draw. So, dnb option for me.

Bet: Stoke 0.0
Odd: 1.81 Tipico
Stake: 9/10


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